It was too much of a distraction and Ford felt the country needed to move past it. It was going to go on and on for years most likely. Even Ted Kennedy, a harsh critic of the decision, eventually viewed it as the right thing to do.I don't know... I kinda see the reasoning. Wanting to put it in the past and what not. But shouldn't actions such as those have real consequences?
I don't know, Secret Agent Mitt sounds like a pretty cool guy.Well, let's go to this scenario:
-Mitt Romney wins 2012
-Mitt Romney breaks into the DNC, bugs the offices of major Dems, and plants stories about Democrats being drug abusers to help win the 2014 midterms.
-Romney and Paul Ryan resign in disgrace. John Boehner has died of alcohol poisoning at this point so Kevin McCarthy is now president of the United States.
-McCarthy pardons Romney.
-A centrist Democrat goes against Kevin McCarthy in 2016.
..... I mean, you expect the margin to be a bit more than 2%.
Yes.Does anyone really think Kasich will be a VP to Drumpf? I could see it being a thing even a few weeks ago but with how increasingly toxic he's becoming to the GOP and the general election, I don't think he'll risk that. Cruz there's an argument for but not Drumpf.
No I don't think so, it's too risky and more likely to hurt a career than help.Does anyone really think Kasich will be a VP to Trump? I could see it being a thing even a few weeks ago but with how increasingly toxic he's becoming to the GOP and the general election, I don't think he'll risk that. Cruz there's an argument for but not Trump.
I don't know, Secret Agent Mitt sounds like a pretty cool guy.
Also, how does McCarthy intend to Make America Great Again? This is of significant importance.
Also McCarthy is a walking gaffe. I'm harsh on Hillary and her recent gaffes but this guy can't complete a sentence without one.
Does anyone really think Kasich will be a VP to Drumpf? I could see it being a thing even a few weeks ago but with how increasingly toxic he's becoming to the GOP and the general election, I don't think he'll risk that. Cruz there's an argument for but not Drumpf.
Wouldn't that ruin his political career?
Does anyone really think Kasich will be a VP to Trump? I could see it being a thing even a few weeks ago but with how increasingly toxic he's becoming to the GOP and the general election, I don't think he'll risk that. Cruz there's an argument for but not Trump.
I just discovered The Circus on Showtime and I'm really digging it.
You'd think so, but was he really that hated? He got credit for ending the Vietnam war and his win in 1972 was the second most decisive victory of all time wasn't? Winning by 2% is a pretty big come back from thatStill, you would expect there to be a bit more than like a 3 or 4 point penalty for the party basically being represented, in image, by a crook who was one of the most hated men in America.
I mean, 48% of Americans felt "yeah, the Republicans did Watergate and I'm fine with that."
I don't know.
You'd think so, but was he really that hated? He got credit for ending the Vietnam war and his win in 1972 was the second most decisive victory of all time wasn't? Winning by 2% is a pretty big come back from that
Nixon had a 20% approval rate after Watergate:
http://historyinpieces.com/research/nixon-approval-ratings
Just a heads up, Tyler says that his GOP model is operational and currently stronger than his Democratic model.
Here are the r² coefficients for each model:
GOP: r² = 0.9652
Dems: r² = 0.9556
https://twitter.com/TylerPedigoKY/status/709135032007397376
I'm guessing he'll be posting GOP projections for this Tuesday as well. It should be noted that Tyler said that the GOP model was much harder to construct, and requires more data.
Okay, if you're getting these types of R-squareds, you're probably doing some bullshit that isn't supported by any established theory.
Tyler is going to get fucked up on Super Tuesday: Part 3: Who Left the Fridge Open and Let Fascists Have All the Coconut Cream Pie?
Guys are being a bit harsh on Tyler. If it works it works but its more likely he's adding variables to get closer and closer to one.
Eh, it's the same thing election year in election year out, somebody has some magic formula that predicts voting outcomes, until it doesn't.
Except this isn't magic, it's statistics, and it's pretty damned unprecedented.
But go ahead and keep shitting on this guy's experiments.
Right, every election cycle there are statisticians who claim to have some new statistical model that predicts outcomes. That's what I was referring to. But hey, be super literal and think I was actually talking about magic.
Actually throwing variables into the model in order to increase the r^2 is the definition of throwing the kitchen sink.Well, getting enough variables to make a comparative analysis that will eventually lead to a good fit for a statistical model is kind of the whole point of achieving a high value r2. At the same time, that doesn't mean that you can just throw in the kitchen sink and expect to get a high r²; the data has to actually fit, and it has to fit well.
It has all the signs of bad statistics, I mean can't be sure unit I see his actual model, but posting r^2 in 4 digits accuracy is not a great sign.Except this isn't magic, it's statistics, and it's pretty damned unprecedented.
But go ahead and keep shitting on this guy's experiments.
And I guess my point is, so? I think what he's doing is interesting and he has obviously put a lot of effort into it.
It's just a shame that poligaf is more interested in disparaging Tyler than discussing the validity of his model.
Or maybe I'm just a geek and this thread just isn't the place to discuss these things.
Actually throwing variables into the model in order to increase the r^2 is the definition of throwing the kitchen sink.
It has all the signs of bad statistics, I mean can't be sure unit I see his actual model, but posting r^2 in 4 digits accuracy is not a great sign.
I'm pretty sure most geeks would be exceptionally skeptical of a model that had a .96 r-squared, especially when the model isn't public knowledge.
Are we really still on this Tyler person? Just because he was right once does not make him a genius. I feel like BS is being peddled whenever his projections are brought up. Until he has accurate projections other than one then I'll just safely file him away in the bullshit list.
Are we really still on this Tyler person? Just because he was right once does not make him a genius. I feel like BS is being peddled whenever his projections are brought up. Until he has accurate projections other than one then I'll just safely file him away in the bullshit list.
He has predicted more states correctly than incorrectly, and his average margin of error is 2.96%. I have no idea what you're talking about.
Here's the thing - it's not very hard to find a model that fits all your data perfectly. In fact, any first year math student can do it in multiple ways. The problem is that it's a methodology that almost never has any real predictive power.Actually, you're kind of right, lol.
My point though was that the accumulation of variables in and of itself is not enough to increase the r² to a value significantly close to 1; if the regression line misses too many data points, it will not yield a high r² value.
I meant to say that just because he predicted one state that everyone else got wrong does not make him a genius. It was one instance and can be definitely be attributed to randomness, unless proven otherwise.
Here's the thing - it's not very hard to find a model that fits all your data perfectly. In fact, any first year math student can do it in multiple ways. The problem is that it's a methodology that almost never has any real predictive power.
I like how we call an Internet dude (tm) we just found out about last week "Tyler" like we know the guy.
Warren doesn’t usually talk politicking, never much one for the speculation. But looking at Perez standing with them and thinking about their work together, she joined in.
“Oh, you’d be great, Tom,” she said.
The other senators quickly started agreeing—maybe he was the one who could make Clinton stick to the progressive politics people in that group wanted.
Except Perez has more credibility with committed progressives – who measure politicians in battle scars – than almost anyone else around. The unions love him so much that they were pushing against him getting picked to replace Eric Holder as attorney general in late 2014 because they didn’t want to lose him at Labor.
He’s spent years working at the Justice Department on voting rights and civil rights and police misconduct, right in the center of issues that have exploded among African-Americans and with progressive Democrats. He’s adored in the White House, where he’s been a main player in crafting the Obama second-term domestic agenda, and he’s got a knack for a fiery stump speech. Also, he’s Dominican. And unlike Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julían Castro, the other Latino Cabinet secretary more often talked about for VP (whom nearly every conversation about Perez becomes at least an implicit comparison to), Perez speaks Spanish.
“Our experience is that Tom knows working families in his bones. You don’t have to do a lot of explaining to him when you’re talking to him, and he just knows how to act,” said SEIU president Mary Kay Henry, who declined any comment on the speculation, but called Perez “one of the finest Labor secretaries since Frances Perkins,” referring to the first Labor secretary, under Franklin Roosevelt.
To the Perez fans, he’s the under-the-radar choice who checks every box Clinton’s going to need if she is the nominee: progressives, unions, African-Americans, Obama loyalists, Latinos. Even some senior Democrats who think the idea is a longshot acknowledge it’s a unique marriage of message and moment.
Clinton, who hasn’t spent much time with any of the people being talked about as prospective running mates (the selection process is way, way down the road, people familiar say), has taken a liking to Perez, and spent a fair amount of time with him, beginning with a long phone conversation wonking out on economic development and other progressive policy measures when she called to ask for his endorsement.
After Perez endorsed Clinton in Iowa, they traveled together for a few days. At the second town hall they did together, Clinton kept turning questions over to him— “Tom, why don’t you take that one?” she’d say.
I'd make a thread for this if I could: Labor Secretary Tom Perez is being floated as a possible VP pick for Hillary.
I'd make a thread for this if I could: Labor Secretary Tom Perez is being floated as a possible VP pick for Hillary.
I'd make a thread for this if I could: Labor Secretary Tom Perez is being floated as a possible VP pick for Hillary.
No. I think Kasich will be the GOP establishment's guy in 2020. He can't afford to be tarred as having run and lost with trump.
I was following predict on the Michigan primary, since I had money on it (that I lost, fuck).
Tyler came in with a post saying "My model now predicts Sanders will win Michigan", after 50% of the vote or so had been counted and it was pretty clear Sanders was going to win barring any last minute save from Detroit.
I was not impressed at all; on the contrary seemed like he reversed his call midway and sought credit?
I teach AP Government and AP US History and sometimes I have the hardest time not verbally slapping students for their crackpot positions. I usually try to be deferential to student opinions, even if they are outside of the mainstream, but I have to draw the line somewhere.
...I drew the line at a female student arguing that women simply should not be President. Half expecting an angry parent email.
I teach AP Government and AP US History and sometimes I have the hardest time not verbally slapping students for their crackpot positions. I usually try to be deferential to student opinions, even if they are outside of the mainstream, but I have to draw the line somewhere.
...I drew the line at a female student arguing that women simply should not be President. Half expecting an angry parent email.