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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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Democrats

Florida: Clinton
North Carolina: Clinton
Ohio: Clinton
Illinois: Clinton
Missouri: Sanders

Republicans

Florida: Trump
North Carolina: Trump
Ohio: Kasich
Illinois: Trump
Missouri: Trump

On the Democratic side I wouldn't have expected Illinois to be a closer race than Ohio, but that's what the polls are showing. My guess is that it's a result of the Rahm attacks being effective, though there's also the possibility of pollsters overreacting to Michigan in their weightings (I recall someone showed Marist crosstabs with independent turnout in IL much higher than 2008 exits, while they had it much closer to the 2008 exits in OH). In the end though, I think the machine's going to do just good enough of a job of turning out the vote for Clinton.

Missouri is a tough one because there's so virtually no polling and it can be a hard state to pin down since it shares characteristics of several regions.
 
xpb0He1.gif

Who is he? He's cute.

And, FYI, we have confirmation that I've attained boyfriend status. (When Kyle got the pizza, he told the cute delivery guy that the sub was for his boyfriend.)
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Republicans

Florida: Trump
North Carolina: Trump
Ohio: Kasich
Illinois: Cruz
Missouri: Cruz

After Michigan, I have no clue about the democratic race.
 
Republicans

Florida: Trump
North Carolina: Trump
Ohio: Kasich
Illinois: Cruz
Missouri: Cruz

After Michigan, I have no clue about the democratic race.
This is basically where I'm at, but give Missouri to Trump.

I have confidence in Hillary winning FL and NC but I don't feel it's worth predicting the others.
 

Kangi

Member
Who is he? He's cute.

And, FYI, we have confirmation that I've attained boyfriend status. (When Kyle got the pizza, he told the cute delivery guy that the sub was for his boyfriend.)

The fact that you've started referring to him by name is confirmation enough.

j6zGvzL.gif
 
Clinton Get IL/OH/NC/FL

MO is going to be like Iowa I think but I'll go with Clinton because the coin was tails.

Trump FL/IL/NC
Kasich OH
MO Cruz by coin flip of heads.

EDIT: And Freedom Caucus torpedoes Ryans budget in other news.
 

Meowster

Member
I don't think I've seen a single ad for Hillary or Bernie in MO in the past month (I am KC, maybe St Louis is different). Curious to see which way it leans. Tomorrow is my first primary vote so I'm pretty excited for it.
Never mind, just saw three Hillary ads, LOL.
 

Ecotic

Member
Florida - Trump
Illinois - Trump
North Carolina - Trump
Ohio - Kasich
Missouri - Cruz by a hair

Republicans go down to California in June and then the convention.

Hillary sweeps.
 
NXT superstar Colin "Big Cass" Cassady. He's seven feet tall, and you CAN'T. TEACH. THAT.

I should have got into wrasslin' when I was little....for reasons far removed from why most people probably watch it....I did have a Hulk Hogan bookbag when I was in 1st grade.

The fact that you've started referring to him by name is confirmation enough.

j6zGvzL.gif

XD His answer "Of course I'm your boyfriend you idiot" was a great summation of my relationship skills.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
But from the moment the Sanders campaign got serious, March 15 has been the reality check date—after Super Tuesday, after the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses, after labor-heavy Michigan. Sitting around a table in the Capitol Hill row house campaign headquarters last April, a year after the first dinner at Press’s house, planning his first trip to Iowa, Longabaugh pushed for a stop in Minnesota, another caucus state with a similar population and history of progressivism.
More than 3,000 people showed.
Now, “It’ll be an uphill fight” is as optimistic as they get.
If Sanders doesn’t win the nomination, that’ll be it. That’s what they decided at Bill Press’s house two years ago, and they’re sticking to it.
“My first question was, 'Is he running as a Democrat?'” said Ben Tulchin, the pollster that Sanders resisted hiring until Devine forced a meeting on him last fall, when Sanders was traveling through San Francisco.
“Tad said, 'Absolutely. We're not going to be Nader.’”
They’re already prepping the fallback plan: 10 areas, including killing Obama’s trade deals and changing the super-delegate process that they’re going to organize around and try forcing into the Democratic platform.
“Worst case, we’re going to Philadelphia with 1,500 delegates. Best case, we’re going to win,” Cohen said. “Either way, we’re going to change things.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-2016-inside-213692#ixzz42w7mHAwE
 

daedalius

Member
Saw the Morgan Freeman Hillary ad today when I was out with my wife. North Kansas City area.

Man, how many votes is that silky smooth voice going to produce?
 

T'Zariah

Banned
Something I've noticed, the GOP always refer to each other by first name, and the Democrats=title+surname.

Any reason for this?
 
Who is he? He's cute.

And, FYI, we have confirmation that I've attained boyfriend status. (When Kyle got the pizza, he told the cute delivery guy that the sub was for his boyfriend.)

Send your story to the DNC, we need your love tale as a statement of tru Sanders-Clinton reconciliation.
 
Something I've noticed, the GOP always refer to each other by first name, and the Democrats=title+surname.

Any reason for this?
They used their titles last republican cycle from what I remember

I think it's because no one is going to call Trump, Businessman Trump. So in return he's not going to call someone calling him Donald, "Senator Cruz"
 

noshten

Member

Sanders is a micromanager. For most of the campaign, there wasn’t an email, mailer or anything bigger than a tweet that went out without his sign-off. He writes his own speeches, rarely paying much attention to what aides give him as suggestions. With his wife and his communications director, he approved all the jokes for his February “Saturday Night Live” cameo. (Sanders, a “Curb Your Enthusiasm” fan for years, didn’t change much of Larry David’s script.)

That's pretty hardcore - wonder if he is still vetting tweets.

They’re up to 1.5 million donors and a half-million registered volunteers, according to a member of the campaign. And that initial $40-50 million campaign? They're closer to $100 million -- and on Monday night, the campaign announced it had hit $40 million for February alone.

 
After Trump there is no way in hell we'll get rid of Super Delegates. Plus, it's not going to be Bernie Sanders that forces that change through. I'm not saying I'm in love with super delegates, but without them, and keeping proportional representation, we'd never be able to have a short primary season again. No one wants to hamstring a potential nominee like that.
 
Republicans
Ohio - Trump
Florida - Trump
Missouri - Trump
Illinois - Trump

Dems
Ohio - Hillary 52-47
Illinois - Hillary 50-49
NC - Hillary 59-40
Florida - Hillary 61-38
Missouri - Bernie 53-46
 

Armaros

Member
After Trump there is no way in hell we'll get rid of Super Delegates. Plus, it's not going to be Bernie Sanders that forces that change through. I'm not saying I'm in love with super delegates, but without them, and keeping proportional representation, we'd never be able to have a short primary season again. No one wants to hamstring a potential nominee like that.

Changing the nomination process after watching the farce that is the GOP nomination process over the years is just not going to happen. The leading democrats are not going to let anyone remove the safeguards put in place to stop what's currently happening to the GOP.

Especially Bernie, who has almost no standing inside the party structure. He has been the self described outsider, him dictating internal policy to a party he only isn't really a part of is ludicrous.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Changing the nomination process after watching the farce that is the GOP nomination process over the years is just not going to happen. The leading democrats are not going to let anyone remove the safeguards put in place to stop what's currently happening to the GOP.

I have no idea who can look at Trump and think not having a way to deal with that situation is a good idea.
 
Changing the nomination process after watching the farce that is the GOP nomination process over the years is just not going to happen. The leading democrats are not going to let anyone remove the safeguards put in place to stop what's currently happening to the GOP.

Agree entirely. I mean, not being an ass here, but they exist so that someone can't come in outside the party and screw everything up. I don't doubt that if Bernie gets the required delegates, the supers wouldn't prevent him from being the nominee. However, getting rid of them entirely? Just not going to happen.

Maybe reduce them in number, but that's the extent of it, I should think.
 

Armaros

Member
I also don't think Bernie saying "I ran as a Democrat for the media coverage" convinces the superdelegates to switch.

That's the funny thing. On one hand they have been railing against super delegates and the Esrablishment Democrats.

But now that Hillary is winning more pledged delegates they are trying to court super-delegates into switching but want to keep their rhetoric.
 
Well, Sanders will have a lot of clout if he goes to the convention with 1500 delegates. I'd imagine the DNC would rather work with him than risk him going 3rd party.
 
From ElectionSmith:

Over 1.136m Republicans have voted, including 657.1k absentee ballots and 479.2k early in-person voters.

Nearly 846.8k Democrats have voted, including 481.1k absentee ballots and 365.7k early in-person voters.

Not surprisingly, Florida’s electorate is old. Over 61.5% of the total votes cast have been by voters over the age of 60. Less than 6% of the total votes cast (GOP, Dem, and NPA/3rd parties) have cast by voters under the age of 30.

White Republicans over the age of 60 still dominate the GOP presidential primary electorate: over 635k white Republicans have cast ballots, or nearly 65% of the total Republican ballots cast thus far. Hispanics registered as Republicans have cast a total of 117.3k ballots, or roughly 10% of the total Republican votes cast.

On the Democratic side, older white voters also make up a majority of those who have voted in advance of tomorrow’s election. White Democrats have cast 535.9k ballots, or 63% of all Democratic ballots cast thus far. Of those 535.9k ballots cast by white Democrats, nearly 67% have been cast by voters over the age of 60. Hispanics registered as Democrats have cast 85.3k ballots (10%), and blacks registered as Democrats have cast nearly 187.0k ballots (22%).
 
Well, Sanders will have a lot of clout if he goes to the convention with 1500 delegates. I'd imagine the DNC would rather work with him than risk him going 3rd party.

Here's what I don't get, though. Say he has 1500 delegates. She'll still win on the first ballot, so what's the point? Release them, play nice, and you'll still get what you want. Trying to hold them over her head like an axe you can drop at any time doesn't seem ,to me at least, to give you anything.

Hillary was extremely gracious in defeat in 2008. She bent over backwards to work for Obama's win and for party unification. She released her delegates, and did all the make nice things.

Bernie's lucky I'm not in charge, cause I'd be a total bitch if he tried to do something like that. No chill.
 
If Bernie actually won by pledged delegates, the party would give him the nomination.

I don't believe he is "toxic" enough for the party to make the argument that he needs to be stopped. And if he was actually able to beat Hillary, the argument that he wouldn't be able to win a general wouldn't be legitimate to voters.

I think they have to honor it if they actually win. The political damage they would get from no doing it would be too much.

The only really useful safeguard outside of a Trump, party meltdown like insurgency is how it effects the media narrative as the race moves on, and makes the gap for the establishment frontrunner appear larger than it really is.
 
You did kinda disappear for a while after Bernie got shellacked.

And you came back with that avatar IIRC and I haven't forgiven you since for replacing Doria.

O. I c.

He is implying I pulled a lana_clinton_running.gif. I was busy, thats all.


And vaporwave Bernie >>>> Doria for the moment. She may come back once I get unjuniored (if I survive until then, lol)

But I've been your biggest defender even after all your problematic predictions and assertions.

tumblr_inline_o404n8CveN1r5jtfd_500.gif

One day we will get an exit poll we can all agree with where Sanders solidly wins the Hispanic vote. California cant come soon enough!
Do5sHYK.gif
 
Pulling ads at this point for Rubio doesn't mean much. It was always assumed he was going to drop after Florida even with a win and pulling ads this late won't have any affect on tomorrow.
 

royalan

Member
Well, Sanders will have a lot of clout if he goes to the convention with 1500 delegates. I'd imagine the DNC would rather work with him than risk him going 3rd party.

Not that I think he will, but I don't know how anyone could respect him if he chose to do that.
 
Bernie has proven to be competitive with closer-to.west coast Hispanics, going by his Nevada numbers and his assumable good numbers in Colorado (he couldnt have won by that margin without wiinning the Hispanic demographic, which probably represented more than a third of the Democratic vote).

In Arizona, they most likely be close-to-over 50% of the electorate. And they are in average way younger too.

The closed primary format hurts Bernie, though. I still think he has a chance.
Lol where are you pulling these random numbers from.

A reasonable Colorado estimate is around 20%. While Arizona was 18% in 08 and could be higher but nowhere near 50%.

He could have easily won Colorado while losing Hispanics.
 

Cerium

Member
My God:

Donald Trump hit his newfound sidekick Chris Christie with some friendly fire on Monday while trying to attack Ohio Gov. John Kasich ahead of his home state’s Tuesday primary.

Trump, speaking a campaign rally in Columbus, Ohio, accused Kasich of having abandoned his gubernatorial duties to campaign in New Hampshire.

“And your governor is absentee," Trump told the crowd. "He goes to New Hampshire, he’s living in New Hampshire. Living! Where's Chris, is Chris around? Even more than Chris Christie, he was there, right? Even more.”

Trump then turned to Christie, who was next to him on stage, and said, “I hated to do that, but I had to make my point.”

The timing was less than ideal for New Jersey's governor. In his home state, he was being criticized Monday for skipping the funeral of Sean Cullen, a state trooper killed last week, in order to campaign with Trump.
 
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