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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Do5sHYK.gif
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I'm gonna guess;

IL - Bernie
OH - Clinton
NC - Clinton
MO - Bernie
FL - Clinton

OH - Kasich
FL - Herr Trump
MO - Boogermaster
IL - Herr Trump

I'd be pretty happy if Clinton wins 1 of the 3. 2 of the 3 is a big win.

3 of 3
Do5sHYK.gif
 

shem935

Banned
IL -Bernie
OH - Bernie
NC - Clinton
MO - Bernie
FL - Clinton

OH - Kasich
FL - Trump
MO - Cruz
IL - Trump
NC- Trump
Mariana Islands- RUBMENTUM
 
Bernie takes Missouri.

Hillary takes NC and Florida.

Ohio and Illinois....I don't rightly know. I feel better about Ohio for Queen than I do about Illinois, but I don't know how it's going to go.

giphy.gif
 

danm999

Member
I could also see Ohio going either way it's just that the polls there seem a bit inelastic compared to IL and there's no Rahm.
 

pigeon

Banned
Germany's NeoNazi party broke 10% (the party calls for refugees crossing the German border to be shot), but pro-refugee parties still dominated overall.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rty-makes-big-gains-in-german-state-elections

Reading this article made me realize that I have no idea how the German government is supposed to work. They have a bicameral federalist parliament with two different elections with totally different victory systems and apportionment, what the fuck. Also it's funny that Germans love Bismarck so much that even though they have a President the head of government is still the Chancellor.

But I'm glad that the Greens did so well even though the AfD succeeded as well. Although it sounds like Germany's entering a period of political polarization!
 
Bernie takes Missouri.

Hillary takes NC and Florida.

Ohio and Illinois....I don't rightly know. I feel better about Ohio for Queen than I do about Illinois, but I don't know how it's going to go.

Isn't Ohio demographically more favorable to Bernie than Illinois?
 
Democrats
Ohio-Bernie
Illinois-Bernie
Florida-Hillary
North Carolina-Bernie
Missouri-Bernie

Republicans
Ohio-Trump
Florida-Trump
Missouri-Cruz
Illinois-Trump
Northern Mariana Islands-Cruz

eh, i'd take that illinois bet. Hillary should have that one fairly easily.

edit: and north carolina? Put the pipe down, son

Isn't Ohio demographically more favorable to Bernie than Illinois?

yep. super white.
 

Diablos

Member
Hillary takes everything, SCOTUS intervenes and rules Hillary only competent person running and thus elects her to the Presidency by a 8-0 vote
 

Gotchaye

Member
Reading this article made me realize that I have no idea how the German government is supposed to work. They have a bicameral federalist parliament with two different elections with totally different victory systems and apportionment, what the fuck. Also it's funny that Germans love Bismarck so much that even though they have a President the head of government is still the Chancellor.

But I'm glad that the Greens did so well even though the AfD succeeded as well. Although it sounds like Germany's entering a period of political polarization!

Me either. But you probably don't live here. Lots of Germans are really interested in US politics and don't seem to like hearing about how the complicated electoral college system we've got basically guarantees a President Trump.
 
Isn't Ohio demographically more favorable to Bernie than Illinois?

One would think, but the polls haven't reflected that. There hasn't been a single poll showing Bernie ahead in Ohio, with one exception. Illinois looks a little closer, so my gut is he has a better shot there than Ohio. Hillary added an IL event this evening. Makes me think her internals are showing that the closer race.
 

pigeon

Banned
Hillary takes everything, SCOTUS intervenes and rules Hillary only competent person running and thus elects her to the Presidency by a 8-0 vote

8-1. Scalia wrote his dissent for this case before he died and put it in a safe deposit box just in case.

My guesses:

DEM:
NC: Hillary
FL: Hillary
MO: Bernie
OH: Bernie
IL: Exact 50-50 tie

GOP:
Trump: Trump
Trump: Trump
Trump
Trump
Trump: Trump Trump
Trump
 

zou

Member
Also it's funny that Germans love Bismarck so much that even though they have a President the head of government is still the Chancellor.

Has nothing to do with Bismarck, but is a direct result of the Weimar Republic and the rise of the Third Reich.
 

Iolo

Member
Enough Democrats will cross over to vote for Kasich in IL that he will win the Democratic primary, setting up a Kasich v Kasich general.
 

Meowster

Member
I don't think I've seen a single ad for Hillary or Bernie in MO in the past month (I am KC, maybe St Louis is different). Curious to see which way it leans. Tomorrow is my first primary vote so I'm pretty excited for it.
 

pigeon

Banned
Has nothing to do with Bismarck, but is a direct result of the Weimar Republic and the rise of the Third Reich.

Well, right, but the Weimar Republic had a Chancellor because the German Empire had a Chancellor, which was because Bismarck unified Germany and they wanted to keep him around to run things. It's Bismarck all the way down!
 
IL - Hillary
OH - Hillary
NC - Hillary
MO - Bernie
FL - Hillary

OH - Trump (got money on this one)
FL - Trump
MO - Cruz
IL - Cruz
NC- Trump
Mariana Islands- Cruz
 

Meowster

Member
Any Republican ads?
I saw a Cruz and a Rubio one (Rubio was quite awhile ago though). Trump's probably taking Missouri but I feel like there is enough of an evangelistic base for Cruz to get a decent amount of votes. I know my dad's Baptist family in the area has all rallied around him lately.
 

Cerium

Member
Politico has a good interview with Joel Benenson, Obama's chief strategist and pollster, now working for Hillary.

Sanders’ criticisms of Benenson’s former boss, Obama, are especially galling. Walk into the pollster’s 33rd-floor office in midtown Manhattan and you’ll find a minimuseum full of first rate ’08 ephemera: The conference room is festooned with “Obama Wins” newspaper headlines, and a cardboard cut-out of the 44th president stares back at you benevolently as you sit on the waiting room couch.

“The things he says about Barack Obama ... It actually pisses me off ... because it’s disingenuous,” Benenson said, flashing real anger. “Don’t stand on a stage in front of television cameras, with millions of people when you’re running in a Democratic primary and say he’s a friend of yours and you work with him.”

“You know, I’d like to remind everybody what he said when Barack Obama was under attack by Republicans running for reelection in 2012, when he called [Obama] weak, a disappointment to millions of people, and said he didn’t have the backbone to stand up to Republicans,” he said, suggesting Sanders is more comfortable slamming his allies than the common enemy. “I haven’t heard him say a word about George Bush. Have you even heard him mention George Bush’s name on the campaign trail?”
Benenson, the Clinton campaign’s bearded principal pollster and chief strategist, can’t even bring himself to pay lip service to Trump, whom he sees as a one-man Democratic turnout machine and a turn-off switch to moderates in both parties. His analysis of the 2016 landscape leads him to the conclusion that Trump has virtually no path to the presidency (He won’t say the same thing about Bernie Sanders) and Trump presents Clinton with renewed opportunities in purple states — especially North Carolina and Arizona.
But when I mentioned Trump — specifically the developer’s claim he could swipe New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio and the lot from the Democrats — his Charlie Brown cloud lifted instantly.

“It’s not real,” a grinning Benenson said of Trump’s repeated claim he can defeat Clinton (or Sanders) by wrestling away swing-state voters.

“I don’t see any state that Democrats have won five out of six times, or six out of six times, that Trump, you know, at face value, poses a threat in. I just don’t see it,” said Benenson, who was the top pollster in Barack Obama’s two successful presidential campaigns.

“What’s the evidence of it? The evidence of it, they’ve turned out a lot of people. I think he’s broken 50 percent in only one state, right? … If you look at the states that Democrats have won ... in five out of the last six [presidential contests], it adds up to 257 electoral votes. It means you only need 13 more to get to 270 if we perform that way.”
 
Can't wait for tomorrow and Rubio's dropout speech. All that Super PAC money completely wasted on two Florida politicians in Rubio and Bush. It's going to be great.
 

Hilbert

Deep into his 30th decade
I got someone to watch my kids! I am going to go caucas in Washington on the 26! My first caucus ever!

Very excited. Going to order a H pin off of Clinton's website to wear.
 
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