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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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Kangi

Member
O. I c.

He is implying I pulled a lana_clinton_running.gif. I was busy, thats all.


And vaporwave Bernie >>>> Doria for the moment. She may come back once I get unjuniored (if I survive until then, lol)

Praying for you. <insert relevant yellow man emoticon>

And it's okay, I kinda disappeared after Michigan. But that's mostly because Blade & Soul engulfed my life.
And also because I was running.gif from OT threads following the upset.


This reminds me of the post floating Jeb! as a VP pick so that Trump can just carry around a punching bag.
 
Not that I think he will, but I don't know how anyone could respect him if he chose to do that.

He will probably just pressure Hillary and the DNC to get things closer to his way (probably a more affordable college program). Just like Clinton pressured Obama for free healthcare in 2008.
 

pigeon

Banned
Something I've noticed, the GOP always refer to each other by first name, and the Democrats=title+surname.

Any reason for this?

The Democrats have better titles. If they called Jeb Governor and Cruz Senator all the time it'd be awkward when they have to talk to Carly Fiorina or Ben Carson, to say nothing of Donald Trump.

It's really an affectation to call people by their titles after they leave office anyway. This is America, when you stop being President the correct title is "Hey, you." But Americans yearn for class.

Well, Sanders will have a lot of clout if he goes to the convention with 1500 delegates. I'd imagine the DNC would rather work with him than risk him going 3rd party.

He's done way too much messaging that he doesn't plan to run third-party for that to be their negotiation strategy. I mean, not that he couldn't still go third party, but if you expect to be arguing about that you want to lay the groundwork first.

I suspect he'll just organize his delegates carefully and hope to fight for party platform votes on the floor, which is the other thing the convention does. It's not a bad strategy, although personally I hope he gets neither the trade deals nor the superdelegates canned. Maybe one of the other eight items.
 

Holmes

Member
One day we will get an exit poll we can all agree with where Sanders solidly wins the Hispanic vote. California cant come soon enough!
Do5sHYK.gif
It'll be pretty tough to catch up after only getting 5% of the Hispanic vote in Texas and 7% in Florida tomorrow.

tumblr_inline_o3yzfdemo61tqt1sa_500.gif
 

kirblar

Member
Sanders is a micromanager. For most of the campaign, there wasn’t an email, mailer or anything bigger than a tweet that went out without his sign-off. He writes his own speeches, rarely paying much attention to what aides give him as suggestions. With his wife and his communications director, he approved all the jokes for his February “Saturday Night Live” cameo. (Sanders, a “Curb Your Enthusiasm” fan for years, didn’t change much of Larry David’s script.)
So it's not just his staff being assholes- it's him.
 

Chichikov

Member
It's really an affectation to call people by their titles after they leave office anyway. This is America, when you stop being President the correct title is "Hey, you." But Americans yearn for class.
Word.
I fucking hate all that pageantry around elected officials. I would call them "hey you" while in office too.
Yet another reason why I hate The West Wing.
 
Here's what I don't get, though. Say he has 1500 delegates. She'll still win on the first ballot, so what's the point? Release them, play nice, and you'll still get what you want. Trying to hold them over her head like an axe you can drop at any time doesn't seem ,to me at least, to give you anything.

Hillary was extremely gracious in defeat in 2008. She bent over backwards to work for Obama's win and for party unification. She released her delegates, and did all the make nice things.

Bernie's lucky I'm not in charge, cause I'd be a total bitch if he tried to do something like that. No chill.

Not that I think he will, but I don't know how anyone could respect him if he chose to do that.

He's done way too much messaging that he doesn't plan to run third-party for that to be their negotiation strategy. I mean, not that he couldn't still go third party, but if you expect to be arguing about that you want to lay the groundwork first.

I suspect he'll just organize his delegates carefully and hope to fight for party platform votes on the floor, which is the other thing the convention does. It's not a bad strategy, although personally I hope he gets neither the trade deals nor the superdelegates canned. Maybe one of the other eight items.

I don't think he'll actually do it. I'm just saying, hypothetically speaking, there ARE options for him to pretty much force some changes in the DNC.
 
This is a joke right?

Miranda sucks. How anybody gave a second look to a guy who wrote "In the Heights", one of the dullest and most vacuous musicals ever to grace Broadway, is beyond me.

Edit: But yes, it is a joke that I wouldn't vote for Obama because he did a photo opp thing with Miranda. Obama is forever the president of my heart.
 

BanGy.nz

Banned
First Lord

Earl of Croy, Marquess of Needham and Dolby, Baronet of Brycey, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the United States for the United Kingdom was the British Ambassador to the United States and former High Commissioner to New Delhi from the United Kingdom.
 

Iolo

Member

Clinton hot mic moment: Did he have a debt?

But during a commercial break while taping an MSNBC town hall on Monday, Clinton and host Chris Matthews chatted it up about the state of the race.

Clinton scolded the media for its constant coverage of the GOP front-runner Donald Trump, speculated about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's political future and his motivations for endorsing Donald Trump.

The subject quickly turned to Christie, and Clinton wondered: "Why did he support him?"

Matthews explained that Christie and others who support Trump "want a future" politically.

"Did he have a debt?" Clinton mused.
 

Chichikov

Member
Miranda sucks. How anybody gave a second look to a guy who wrote "In the Heights", one of the dullest and most vacuous musicals ever to grace Broadway, is beyond me.

Edit: But yes, it is a joke that I wouldn't vote for Obama because he did a photo opp thing with Miranda. Obama is forever the president of my heart.
Broadway music is just insufferable to me.
I heard a couple of songs from Hamilton and I thought they were just terrible.
Like, I get it that I'm not exactly the target audience for musicals, and maybe it works in the context of the show, but on their own they're just absolute soulless garbage in my mind.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Broadway music is just insufferable to me.
I heard a couple of songs from Hamilton and I thought they were just terrible.
Like, I get it that I'm not exactly the target audience for musicals, and maybe it works in the context of the show, but on their own they're just absolute soulless garbage in my mind.

I wouldn't know, tickets are impossible to get.
 
Broadway music is just insufferable to me.
I heard a couple of songs from Hamilton and I thought they were just terrible.
Like, I get it that I'm not exactly the target audience for musicals, and maybe it works in the context of the show, but on their own they're just absolute soulless garbage in my mind.
I read a couple random scenes from Shakespeare. Trash IMO
 
I don't think he'll actually do it. I'm just saying, hypothetically speaking, there ARE options for him to pretty much force some changes in the DNC.

No, no, no, you misunderstand me.

My question is if she has enough delegates to get the nod on the first ballot, what does his threat get him, really?
 

Makai

Member
Okay my mom is voting for Kasich in NC. Just want to confirm that there is no threshold and it's proportional delegates.
 

kirblar

Member
Do you honestly believe the values of tea partiers are comparable to the values of a harder-left wing in the Dem party?
This isn't a value question. It's a "do you want to fucking win an election" or "do you want to enforce ideological purity" question

The GOP is losing because they're being pulled more and more rightward, allowing Dems to maintain the center (and slowly pull the center leftward. Responding to their self-destructive strategy by mirroring it is the worst possible thing you could do.
 
Do you honestly believe the values of tea partiers are comparable to the values of a harder-left wing in the Dem party?
The values? No and that's clearly not the point I'm making.

Tactics, purity tests, anti empiricism, dishonesty about who shares their ideas? I see all those things in both.
 
Broadway music is just insufferable to me.
I heard a couple of songs from Hamilton and I thought they were just terrible.
Like, I get it that I'm not exactly the target audience for musicals, and maybe it works in the context of the show, but on their own they're just absolute soulless garbage in my mind.

Modern Broadway is especially bad for this. I'd say Bernstein transcended this, because he was just genuinely a great 20th Century composer and musical mind. Ditto Sondheim, ditto Porter. And also, to be fair, the emotion is something that actors usually convey in a performance, and it's basically impossible to replicate that when you do cast recordings.

Edit: And the Shakespeare comparison does not work, btw. You can read Hamlet's soliloquys, on their own, and recognize them as great, great writing, irrespective of how they fit into the play.
 

Armaros

Member
Where do you want it to go? His huge youth support suggests his ideals are where things are going.

They only will go that way if they actually votes and more local candidates that have their positions.

But they don't. So old people are the ones that put people in office.
 
The values? No and that's clearly not the point I'm making.

Tactics, purity tests, anti empiricism, dishonesty about who shares their ideas? I see all those things in both.

Democrats/hillary used some of those as well, those are standard political tools.

They only will go that way if they actually votes and more local candidates that have their positions.

But they don't. So old people are the ones that put people in office.

Eventually they will, I'm talking about the future.
 
Florida primary – Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. EST (or 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. CST for parts of panhandle)
Illinois primary – 6 a.m.-7 p.m. CST
Missouri primary – 6 a.m.- 7 p.m. CST
North Carolina primary – 6:30 a.m.- 7:30 p.m. EST
Ohio primary – 6:30 a.m.-7:30 p.m. EST
 
There is a non-zero chance that Hillary Clinton will have a bad day tomorrow.

My model is estimating two Sanders wins on Tuesday, in Missouri and Illinois. However, Illinois and Ohio are both effectively coin flips with such thin margins between victory and defeat (if you recall, I put Bernie at 53.48% in Michigan and he won by less than 1%, though my model should be more accurate now). It is also estimating two wide victories for Hillary in North Carolina and Florida, which is and has been expected. Here are tomorrow’s projections:


screen-shot-2016-03-14-at-11-37-02-pm.png


Only one Bernie win in Missouri will not likely lead to any permanent change in the perception of Hillary being the candidate that is destined to win the nomination. Two upsets will likely change the narrative of the presidential race, and bolster Bernie’s image as a threat to the prospect of Hillary being the Democratic nominee. Three upsets tomorrow will likely transform Bernie from “challenger” status to “probable nominee”status, and I say this because early numbers indicate to me that Bernie will win (at least) the next eight states in a row, all the way until April 19th. If Sanders wins three states tomorrow, this means that in mid-April he will be able to say that he has won eleven of the last thirteen state primaries. That’s some serious momentum.

I’ve also been putting together a GOP model over the past week. Though the model seems to fit previous elections extremely well, the GOP elections are just far too volatile for me to have much confidence in the numbers. Regardless, it is estimating at least two upsets tomorrow, in Florida and North Carolina. If it turns out to be acceptably accurate, I will begin posting projections for the GOP as well.


https://tylerpedigo.com/category/politics-2/


If his margin of error stays under 3 percentage points or less for all of the states tomorrow, I am going to start basing my predictions off of his model.
 

Armaros

Member
Democrats/hillary used some of those as well, those are standard political tools.

Please, Bernie supporters here were calling Her a fake progressive or just another Republican.

And completely ignore how close her voting record is with his.

They only mostly stopped when they saw it didn't go anywhere and angered the democrats he wanted the endorsements from.
 
Where do you want it to go? His huge youth support suggests his ideals are where things are going.
Then were fucked.

But I think the youth is amenable to smarter, less doctrine progressives who understand they're not the only people on this country. Less Bernie Sanders and my way or the high way liberals. More LBJs, Obama's and FDRs progressives who get stuff done. Otherwise those youth are going to start losing.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Just checking in to make sure none of you are participating in any punk-ass thuggery.

*eyes everyone suspiciously*
 
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