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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Looking at IL:

Champaign county started reporting, Bernie getting a blowout as expected.

Clinton's lead is 58k.

Main counties that are left are:
Champaign (UIC campus)
Sandamon (Springfield)
Madison (very white)
McHenry

Sanders also leads in Kane and Will which HC will definitely need to keep close.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
21813-224x300.jpeg
 
W

watershed

Banned
The dem primary truly ended tonight. Now the party needs to come together. The republicans may still go all the way to the convention.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
Y2Kev said:
What would you like to see from her?
Click to expand...

I dislike Hillary because of her neoliberal policies and ties to the finance industry. She'll never pivot away from that, but I'm certainly going to vote for her regardless because we need to keep the White House out of GOP hands.

Might be wrong here, but I feel like the majority of Bernie Sanders supporters like him because of his independence, aggression, and sincerity rather than his policies. If Sanders was advocating the same policies as Clinton, he'd probably still have won a state or two. So winning these voters is going to be really difficult.

I don't expect any kind of mass Sanders-to-Trump exodus, but a very substantial amount of Sanders supporters will stay home in November because they find Clinton untrustworthy.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Looking at IL:

Champaign county started reporting, Bernie getting a blowout as expected.

Clinton's lead is 58k.

Main counties that are left are:
Champaign (UIC campus)
Sandamon (Springfield)
Madison (very white)
McHenry

Sanders also leads in Kane and Will which HC will definitely need to keep close.
Click to expand...
Cook county is king. As long as she leads chicago, she wins

5bnX6Tf.png
 
C

Cipherr

Member
Clinton will be fine with or without Sanders supporters. Obama hasnt even started pulling for Clinton yet. This is the pre-game. Everyone is forgetting that we are barely even getting STARTED. Once the train starts it wont even be close.

To clarify, Im saying she doesnt need to pander to anyone on the left at all to win. She may pivot to the center like everyone does to get more votes there, but she doesnt need to pander to Sanders base to win.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
RustyNails said:
Cook county is king. As long as she leads chicago, she wins

5bnX6Tf.png
Click to expand...

True, but all depends on her final margin there. Still very close overall. Just a strange one compared to Ohio, I guess college students in IL turned out more for Bernie than in OH.

The other counties are very small compared to cook, but if Bernie runs the margins there he will catch up. E.g. he is at 70%+ in Champaign, 55% in Will, 54 in Kane. Will probably do very well in the non-reporting ones too.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Cipherr said:
Clinton will be fine with or without Sanders supporters. Obama hasnt even started pulling for Clinton yet. This is the pre-game. Everyone is forgetting that we are barely even getting STARTED. Once the train starts it wont even be close.
Click to expand...

One person who I didn't even think about campaigning/rallying for Clinton. Michelle Obama. That women is overwhelmingly liked. She's a secret weapon.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
Cipherr said:
Clinton will be fine with or without Sanders supporters. Obama hasnt even started pulling for Clinton yet. This is the pre-game. Everyone is forgetting that we are barely even getting STARTED. Once the train starts it wont even be close.
Click to expand...

Obama was a much more appealing candidate than Clinton was, and even he would have lost without millennial support.

A Sanders VP pick might actually help the campaign, although I'm expecting her to pick a moderate white male Democrat from a swing state.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Benchmark politics is REALLY good, I'm going with what they have on Missouri. Waiting for Illinois.

Standby. Standby. Standby /megyn

Valhelm said:
Clinton needs to begin courting Sanders supporters ASAP. If those voters stay home in November, her campaign will fail.
Click to expand...

Kinda? I mean Illinois is extremely close.
 
A

Allard

Member
Cipherr said:
Clinton will be fine with or without Sanders supporters. Obama hasnt even started pulling for Clinton yet. This is the pre-game. Everyone is forgetting that we are barely even getting STARTED. Once the train starts it wont even be close.
Click to expand...

Yeah despite a lot of the superdelegates putting out feelers early for Hilary they really haven't started campaigning for her. Just wait till Obama starts hitting the campaign trail for her, all the fence sitters in the senate and congressional districts, hell all the celebrities that for the most part have stayed out or shown lukewarm support in the primaries get out in favor of trying to stop trump. More then anything now that the democratic presidential primaries are mostly over, the key races will be state based (the real fact that has been lost in the clinton vs sanders race, we need to start focus on candidates who can win in the GE in state races more now) or how the republican candidates who are not in the presidential race are going to react to whoever ends up being the final candidate for them in the GE.
 
Yoda

Yoda

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
True, but all depends on her final margin there. Still very close overall. Just a strange one compared to Ohio, I guess college students in IL turned out more for Bernie than in OH.

The other counties are very small compared to cook, but if Bernie runs the margins there he will catch up. E.g. he is at 70%+ in Champaign, 55% in Will, 54 in Kane. Will probably do very well in the non-reporting ones too.
Click to expand...

I think the youth vote was down across to board; I'd wager it's anti Rahm vote causing Bernie to be competitive.
 
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