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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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Seriously? That's a bombshell if he said that.
Jack Remington
Banned
Hey, so Tyler's model didn't work out at all, did it? So much for that .96 r-squared.
He said it last night. Did he say it again today?
Paul Ryan is Straight White Republican Guy #24353. Seriously, he has to be the least distinctive human being ever.
Oh it was last night? The Twitter comment from NBC News made me think it was today. Either way he is refusing to rule it out which is pretty damn interesting.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Paul Ryan starting to look like a House of Cards ass motherfucker.
Darkangel
Member
On the whole Bernie -> Trump flip flop thing...
If someone cared equally about money in politics, social programs, and illegal immigration/border security, then I could see a switch from Bernie to Trump making sense. That's two out of three right there, and I'd say there's a half-decent chance that Trump won't completely butcher the country's safety net. There are a lot of people out there with diverse political beliefs that don't fit nicely on the typical political spectrum.
If someone cared equally about money in politics, social programs, and illegal immigration/border security, then I could see a switch from Bernie to Trump making sense. That's two out of three right there, and I'd say there's a half-decent chance that Trump won't completely butcher the country's safety net. There are a lot of people out there with diverse political beliefs that don't fit nicely on the typical political spectrum.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Actually, that's just one out of three; Trump isn't fighting against money in politics, he is money in politics. He's just cutting out the middleman.
And since when was Bernie banging the border security drum?
I wouldn't be surprised if he's down for a doomed presidential run just so he can use it as an excuse to stop being speaker.
Coriolanus
Banned
Trying to imagine a Kasich Cruz debate and literally cannot.
Poodlestrike
Banned
That's what everybody said about the one before Iowa, fwiw.
They damn near had to hold a gun to his head for that Speaker job.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I'm wondering if the narrative of "voters will revolt if the RNC steals the nomination" are overblown. GOP voters are pretty well known for falling in line. Remind them of the existential threat of Scalia's empty seat, and I think they could still end up rallying around whatever suit the RNC gives the nom to.
What's the evidence the debate hurt him and not his pathetic caucus organization?
I think there's some truth to this. They always do fall in line...but if just a few stay home, Clinton walks away with it.
shinra-bansho
Member
FL Hispanics was like 70/30, Clinton. 50/27 Rubio/Trump. 17% of GOP. 20% Dem.
This guy is dumb.
I think Trump is a vastly diferent story because he basically has a cult of personality right now with his 30-40% of the base. Some, maybe even a majority, of those voters might fall in line but even a significant minority of them staying home, voting third party or writing in Trump loses the GOP the election.
I'll have some of whatever this guy's on.
QuiteWhittle
Member
he only needs 70 percent of the vote in california and new york, we can do it guys
And what decides if a state is favorable to Sanders or not? Ohio looked like it should've been very favorable to Sanders's message like Michigan but she still won it comfortably.
Thought HA Goodman at first.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Possibly. But I'm always hesitant of "this time is different" arguments. Even if Trump is a different kind of candidate, I don't know if that means every trend should be ignored. The real question will be if his third party threat is sincere, or just bluster.
Coriolanus
Banned
So it was here
and if that's the turnout, then The Red Tape had no discernible impact. Hrm.
Good sign, tbqh
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Ah yes, this has complete disaster written all over it.
I can only imagine a Hillary vs. Paul Ryan debate. Biden absolutely mopped the floor with this guy. He'll be in tears by the end of the Hillary one.
I honestly think people are ignoring how damaging stealing this from Trump will be to the party establishment. Trump's fans are so, so dedicated--I have to believe violence will erupt if they try and steal it from him. There is absolutely no way many of these people "fall in line." Plus, it would be a guarantee Trump ran as third-party and basically handed the election to Hillary.
Coriolanus
Banned
Violence will erupt anyway.
Darkangel
Member
That's a fair point about Trump, but I think the situation is a little different than the backroom dealings you find with the SuperPACS. The main issue people have with money in politics is that it (essentially) gives certain people more voting power than others. They don't necessarily want to bar business people from holding power, they want an equal playing field for voting. Trump may be a billionaire, but he acknowledges the campaign financing problems, and the people themselves are openly boosting his popularity.
Bernie not caring about the border stuff was sort of my point. A voter sacrifices their positions on certain issues so long as their other preferences are met. With Bernie they're sacrificing illegal immigration control; with Trump they're sacrificing social welfare reform (in my example).
Orbis Tabula
Member
I expect she still will, yes. I guess I'm most nervous about crossover voters who would either see RNC suit as a compromise between Clinton and Trump, or reward the RNC for stopping the crazy. But either way, Clinton would have an easy strategy against that: tie the nominee to Trump.
Black Republican
Member
Anyone pleasantly surprised how quick the Florida votes came in? i guess the ghost of 2000 will forever haunt them
QuiteWhittle
Member
cartoon_soldier
Member
Boehner endorsed Paul Ryan for President
Oh look, the coalition of the unwilling.
Can't state GOPers change the rules to disqualify Trump from running as a third party candidate?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm torn on Trump skipping the debate.
I think it definitely hurts because it gives Cruz a 2-hour window to just rip Trump with no rebuttals. He can lie, exaggerate, say whatever he wants, and nobody will be there to tell him differently. He can spend 2 hours connecting Trump to the KKK and nobody will say boo about it.
I think it could help Trump in this way: Kasich gets WAY more screen time. Cruz needs Rubio voters to topple Trump. In a debate like this, I think Kasich is going to get a lot of time to convince those voters to come to him, and I think he can.
I think it definitely hurts because it gives Cruz a 2-hour window to just rip Trump with no rebuttals. He can lie, exaggerate, say whatever he wants, and nobody will be there to tell him differently. He can spend 2 hours connecting Trump to the KKK and nobody will say boo about it.
I think it could help Trump in this way: Kasich gets WAY more screen time. Cruz needs Rubio voters to topple Trump. In a debate like this, I think Kasich is going to get a lot of time to convince those voters to come to him, and I think he can.
The GOP going yolo against Trump, goddamn
cartoon_soldier
Member
OMG WHAT WILL MOOK DO NOW
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersFor...us_bernout_plan_make_hillary_nonviable_in_45/
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersFor...us_bernout_plan_make_hillary_nonviable_in_45/
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