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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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A

Abinash117

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
It can't be stressed enough that the RNC had a specific plan to become more moderate after the 2012 defeat, yet four years later they're going to nominate an unapologetic bigot as their nominee. The party leadership is out of step with its voters and will continue to be. When Hillary stomps Trump I'm sure we'll hear a lot of hand wringing about how the party needs to be more inclusive but by 2020 they'll be firing up the hate machine to win House seats again.

I really don't see an end point for this death spiral. Southern republicans will never have a eureka moment where they say "maybe immigration isn't bad after all." And unlike dixiecrats in the 1960s, these voters don't have another political party to join.
Click to expand...

Many of Republican voters don't want an eureka moment. Because of Trump they are basically against many of the typical Republican establishment views more now and the tactics they used possible won't work anymore since they don't trust them.

I feel the only why they can survive long term is they re-adjust there some of their views and party composition. Even if Trump loses the general or even the nominee, the damage would already be done and the party leaders and elites would still have a disconnect with their voters. Thus still not understanding anything.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Net favorability among republicans


Cruz Kasich Rubio Trump
Mar 9-15, 2016 17 31 2 23
Mar 8-14, 2016 17 33 0 23
Mar 7-13, 2016 19 35 7 24
Mar 6-12, 2016 19 35 10 24
Mar 5-11, 2016 17 34 8 21
Mar 4-10, 2016 17 34 11 15
Mar 3-9, 2016 19 31 11 12
Mar 2-8, 2016 19 30 14 12
Mar 1-7, 2016 15 27 18 8
Feb 29 - Mar 6 13 26 19 5
Feb 28 - Mar 5 11 24 19 6
Feb 27 - Mar 4, 9 23 22 7
Feb 26 - Mar 3, 7 22 22 12
Feb 25 - Mar 2, 9 25 28 14
Feb 24 - Mar 1, 8 26 30 13
Feb 23-29, 2016 10 25 30 14
Feb 22-28, 2016 13 26 33 15
Feb 21-27, 2016 14 24 34 15
Feb 20-26, 2016 15 25 35 15
Feb 19-25, 2016 18 25 40 10
Feb 18-24, 2016 21 23 40 9
Feb 10-23, 2016 23 23 34 12
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
CCS said:
That's seriously impressive. I mean, that's enough money to give a million bucks to each of his delegates.
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
The rise of Trump proves what Democrats have been saying since realignment in the '60s. It was obvious then and it's super obvious now. The voters were willing to accept fiscal conservatism but only because it indulged their social conservatism too.
 
S

superdeluxe

Member
Ecotic said:
Hillary has to calculate if she would want to crowd her first 100 days on a contentious very liberal court pick. There's only so much political capital to go around and it's unknown what Congress will look like. Under the right conditions I could see Hillary tacitly signaling to Obama to let Garland through in the lame duck session so she doesn't have to use her political capital making good on picking a far left candidate and seeing it through. Obama would oblige to extend his legacy.

Hillary may want to concentrate on something else like immigration reform.
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I think if the repubs think Hillary is going to win, I think they will prefer Garland than Hilton's pick. Which is what I think Obama's thought was on this.
 
O

Owzers

Member
watching congressional hearings are depressing, these are our politicians. Republicans are one step away from giving Snyder a medal for having to deal with incompetent bureaucrats.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
If I were Trump, I'd just go on TV a few days before the convention and be like "Any unbound delegates who casts a vote for Trump will get one million dollars from me."
 
M

Maledict

Member
Macho Madness said:
The rise of Trump proves what Democrats have been saying since realignment in the '60s. It was obvious then and it's super obvious now. The voters were willing to accept fiscal conservatism but only because it indulged their social conservatism too.
Click to expand...

Lets not sugar coat it. It's not "social conservatism".

It's just racism. Pure and simple, racism. Trump doesn't give a flying fuck about gay marriage, or abortion, and his followers seem to have suddenly lost their passion for it as well.

It's just racism.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
HylianTom said:
Two minute warning has just ended, he's 19 points down, with no time outs left, and Team Bernie has ran the punt out to their own 5 yard line. And the coach has the clock management skills of Andy Reid (or Mike Smith, hehe..)
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ciaossu said:
God, those awful pie-charts. Someone needs to teach America when to pie-chart and when to bar-chart



That's not a bad one. I said "Cleveland Browns winning the Super Bowl" after the first Super Tuesday referring to Bernie's chances. Technically possible, but only in the sense that they are in signed up for the competition
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FloydtheFathead said:
That can work.. Or in Football being down 28 points. It is over for the most part unless you are the 93 Bills and the other team is the Oilers.

Or if you are down 10 points with Aaron Rodgers at QB (that ones for you Kitty. :) )
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SlimySnake said:
It's basically the first half of the World Cup semi final b/w Germany and Brazil.

The only difference is that Brazilian fans knew it was over by the time the germans went up by three goals.

brazil-woman.gif


plac.gif


By the fifth goal they had started cheering for the other team. Bernie fans on the other hand are still holding on to hope.
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Bowdz said:
Germany V. Brazil in the last world cup at about 78 minutes.

Edit: Oh SlimySnake, you crafty motherfucker.

Great minds bro, great minds.
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Kusagari said:
The 76ers being down 20 points to the Warriors.
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Oh, and thanks for these, guys! Gonna have to keep them saved for when I need to explain the long odds to some friends who don't get it.
 
A

Armaros

Member
You know Reddit Sander Supporters are in completely breakdown mode when there is a 3K up-voted brigaded post on R/Conspiracy

When the average vote total on the page is 150 for a thread.

Upvotes are the same as actual votes right?
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Let's discuss Super Twosday Ads. I don't think they matter that much but it can be interesting.

This ad was the one most ran by the Hillary Clinton campaign, running 422 times in Ohio and North Carolina. It promises to curb outsourcing with taxes and to help bring clean energy jobs in: https://politicaladarchive.org/ad/polad_hillaryclinton_fun9d/

She went on to win Ohio and North Carolina by comfortable margins.

Trump's campaign ran this ad 249 times in Ohio. It's an ad targeted at John Kasich's record: https://politicaladarchive.org/ad/polad_johnkasich_donaldtrump_jy411/

Trump lost Ohio anyway.

Ted Cruz ran this ad 592 times in North Carolina and Ohio. It bashes Trump's record and then runs through the usual Ted Cruz talking points: https://politicaladarchive.org/ad/polad_tedcruz_donaldtrump_gp5ko/

Ted Cruz lost both states handily.

The Bernie Sanders campaign ran this ad 225 times in Ohio. They also appear to have ran it once in California a few days ago. Weird. The ad emphasizes how bad NAFTA is and how Bernie is against bad trade policy: https://politicaladarchive.org/ad/polad_berniesanders_8890z/

Bernie lost Ohio by more than expected.

Not many ads from the Kasich campaign but they appear to be running an ad in California currently: https://politicaladarchive.org/ad/polad_johnkasich_2mxkd/

If there's a theme to be found here, it's that negativity doesn't work.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Cesare Borgia said:
It can't be stressed enough that the RNC had a specific plan to become more moderate after the 2012 defeat, yet four years later they're going to nominate an unapologetic bigot as their nominee. The party leadership is out of step with its voters and will continue to be. When Hillary stomps Trump I'm sure we'll hear a lot of hand wringing about how the party needs to be more inclusive but by 2020 they'll be firing up the hate machine to win House seats again.

I really don't see an end point for this death spiral. Southern republicans will never have a eureka moment where they say "maybe immigration isn't bad after all." And unlike dixiecrats in the 1960s, these voters don't have another political party to join.
Click to expand...

So the big reason I think Trump breaks this pattern is that the party has already started condemning him. Trump's going to get the nomination. Is Mitt Romney going to stand up and introduce him at the RNC after giving a press conference about how he's not a Republican? Is Paul Ryan going to go out there and support him?

The GOP politicians aren't stupid. They know Trump is dead in the general. Are they going to say they support him and endorse him, and have those lines immediately appear in attack ads for the rest of their careers?

For a long time, it was in the interest of the GOP as a whole to reform, but not in the interests of most individual GOP politicians. Most of them will never be President anyway! I think Trump makes it in the interest of a large number of individual politicians, and that's what I think changes the calculus.
 
T

teiresias

Member
Isn't Missouri decided? Why is CNN still running the whole "Missouri too closer to call for both parties" nonsense? Never mind, I think it's obvious.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
teiresias said:
Isn't Missouri decided? Why is CNN still running the whole "Missouri too closer to call for both parties" nonsense? Never mind, I think it's obvious.
Click to expand...
Recount is possible. For the Democrats, it's one delegate so neither of the campaigns care.

De Blasio was on the Chris Hayes show last night discussing why he's comfortable calling Trump a racist and the generation gap of Democratic voters: http://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/the-politician-who-called-trump-a-racist-646213699735
 
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