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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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dramatis

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y8ZJ8gU.jpg


This was fun. I wonder if we could use a Democratic delegate count predictions thread.

NeoXChaos, is someone booked for the last Democratic debate?
 
South Carolina?

Hahaha. Trump will win New York against Clinton before South Carolina votes for a democrat.

Not really. South Carolina was literally the fourth state behind Georgia, Arizona, and Missouri that was close to voting for Obama. South Carolina is not a swing state by any means, but demographically speaking, it would vote for a Democrat before New York votes for a Republican:

2012 election
South Carolina: 44.09% Obama - 54.56% Romney
New York: 63.35% Obama - 35.17% Romeny
 
Oof. That was a dumb move by her on the Reagans and AIDS. You don't have to run down the Reagans but you don't have to revise history to try and paint them in a good light. They did nothing for AIDS. They laughed at victims.
 

Ophelion

Member
Oof. That was a dumb move by her on the Reagans and AIDS. You don't have to run down the Reagans but you don't have to revise history to try and paint them in a good light. They did nothing for AIDS. They laughed at victims.

Trying to court disillusioned Republicans not on the Trump train, maybe?

I dunno. Sounds like a really dumb thing to say. Don't have to speak ill of the dead, but sometimes it's better to just say nothing at all.
 
Reporters following Cruz are simply disturbed by him:

https://newrepublic.com/article/131409/beyond-good-evil
The author admits his liberalism and constantly mocks his appearance, saying he looks like a lizard, he has a pockmarked, villainous face and on and on. At what point does one begin to realise there might be some some underlying bias here..
We get it, author, you hate ted cruz and he looks ugly and no one likes him, despite the tens of thousands of primary votes. I'm so over these hate articles breh. It's just like... naked partisanship waving its dick in view of the elderly
YAAAAAASSSSSSS QUEEN SLAY LIKE NANCY SLAYED ROCK HUDSON
Lmao wtf
This was the best yas queen post ever
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I think I'd place the chances of a brokered convention at 80%. I'm really starting to think Trump doesn't get what he needs.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Hillary praising the Reagans/Nancy for starting the national conversation on AIDS?

Seriously?

Fuck that shit. Reagan was an ass during the epidemic and did far more harm than good. The only reason they even said anything is because it started hitting straight people.

Maybe that's why the GOP loves him. Lots of gay people died under his watch.
 

dramatis

Member
no I can book you to the May one. Are they still doing that delegate prediction?
Sure.

Don't know about what JustenP88 thinks now, he was relying on his prediction (up to this point) being a margin of 73 in Hillary's favor at this point. The actual margin is 221.

Hey, I didn't do so bad. I should update those super Tuesday 2 numbers, though.
I actually went back and realized you messed up Arkansas and Georgia numbers, and Arkansas is only saved in the pic because I typoed a 2 where you had a 3. lol
 

Ecotic

Member
Protestors just need to stay away from his rallies. It doesn't accomplish anything other than strengthening his support.

They're doing a really good job though of making Trump continue to be seen as far too extremist. If he goes through the fall campaign and regularly gets 10+ interruptions per rally and he's on camera yelling "Get 'em out! Bye bye!" or worse and there's a violent incident every two weeks, it's going to aid in smothering his message for middle America and not allow him to escape his extremist image.
 
Looks like he's losing Ohio and Florida is getting closer. I'm not liking the looks of it.

I know we're all dreaming of Clinton crushing Trump in the general but the guy is a legit proto-fascist. Having the Republicans take him out in a bloody convention would be best for the country.
 

Ecotic

Member
And is there anybody out there that doesn't think he'll run third party if the GOP screws him over?

Possibly. If he wants to avoid being humiliated in a general election then it provides him an easy out to say he can't win by going independent so he'll return to business. Then he can forever say he would have won the general election and made America great if only the party elites hadn't screwed him over. It's the perfect excuse.
 
No, Trump is better for dems than a brokered convention. A convention is a wildcard. Only way it would benefit dems is if Trump runs 3rd party.

It could also alienate a lot of Trump voters if they feel the party is actively trying to suppress their vote. It wouldn't convert them into Hillary supporters, but it might keep them from voting for the eventual GOP nominee if it's not Trump. And that's assuming Trump doesn't run third party, which is a pretty big assumption.
 
Polls-only (which is obviously more accurate since The Party Decides doesn't apply to the Republicans at all) has Trump at a 97% chance of winning Florida.

I think he's okay there.
 
Florida isn't really where the concern should be for Trump, it's Missouri and Illinois. It sucks how this is the most important day of the primary season and only Florida/Ohio get much good polling.
 
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