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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
Bowdz said:
Agreed. That's the worst part of any election outcome where the GOP still controls the House (which is inevitable). Ryan and the GOP leadership will claim that they have the mandate from the voters because they still control it regardless of whether or not they lose the Senate. They will be just as obstructionist because of this fact. Luckily, Hilldawg and the Dems can go nuclear on SCOTUS nominations and just ram through 3 judges without their consent.

Winning the Senate is imperative this year.
Click to expand...

Democrats need a massive anti-gerrymandering lawsuit effort across the country after this election. That's one of the biggest sleeper issues that people aren't paying attention to and could be massive swings. Especially if they lose the general (doubtful, but still)
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Nazgul_Hunter said:
Democrats need a massive anti-gerrymandering lawsuit effort across the country after this election. That's one of the biggest sleeper issues that people aren't paying attention to and could be massive swings. Especially if they lose the general (doubtful, but still)
Click to expand...

There has been an effort to pass constitutional amendments at the state level in several stales. It put Florida back to normal and it was probably one of the top 5 worst offenders.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
MO general:

Dave Helling ‏@dhellingkc 3m3 minutes ago
From MO poll: Cruz beats Sanders, Clinton. So does Rubio. Trump beats Clinton but loses to Sanders.

Dave Helling ‏@dhellingkc 55s55 seconds ago
One caution on new MO poll: sample size is small in each party, so MoE is relatively high
Click to expand...
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Macho Madness said:
Something is going on in Alaska beyond Palin I think. They have an independent governor now, plus the presidential swings.

Climate change?
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Alaska, like Hawaii, is only nominally integrated with continental party politics. I mean, Alaska has been voting Republican for twenty years, but it has a basic income program! Alaskan problems and concerns are very different from mainland problems and concerns, so they vote for politicians they think will help with those issues. I think Alaska could probably be blue in the next decade given their deep dependence on welfare of various sorts. It's probably just about who's less likely to fuck Alaska up.
 
SlimySnake

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Macho Madness said:
This was inevitable once South Carolina hit in my view. Two reasons:

Sanders did not make in-roads where he needed to

Trump was going to win all over the country
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I am a Hilary supporter, but the DNC really screwed over Bernie by limiting the number of debates before Iowa to like three debates. They should've had the same number of debates the republicans had last year. Bernie was trailing by like 25 points in Iowa and New Hampshire up until November last year.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
SlimySnake said:
I am a Hilary supporter, but the DNC really screwed over Bernie by limiting the number of debates before Iowa to like three debates. They should've had the same number of debates the republicans had last year. Bernie was trailing by like 25 points in Iowa and New Hampshire up until November last year.
Click to expand...

I think they probably could have had a few more but for the number of candidates, I think it's been mostly fair.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
HPU-Poll-Democratic-presidential-primary-likely-and-actual-voters-March-2016.jpg


HPU-Poll-GOP-presidential-primary-likely-and-actual-voters-March-2016.jpg
 
B

Bowdz

Member
I have a feeling (much like the amazing Nate Silver) that Trump's going to lose FL and OH. The polls are moving away from him in both States and it's hard to see him beating beating he incumbents. We're headed to a brokered convention bros.

BELIEVE!
 
M

Maledict

Member
SlimySnake said:
I am a Hilary supporter, but the DNC really screwed over Bernie by limiting the number of debates before Iowa to like three debates. They should've had the same number of debates the republicans had last year. Bernie was trailing by like 25 points in Iowa and New Hampshire up until November last year.
Click to expand...

The early debates helped Hilary, not Bernie. Debates have never really helped Bernie - despite what his supporters thought, Hilary tends to come out on top because she's got an insane grasp of detail and has been doing this for decades.

Overall there are simply, way, way too many debates on both sides. You have 3 maximum for a presidential election, why on earth do you need 8+ for the primaries?
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Macho Madness said:
We Ask America (538 only gave it a weight of 3 despite being most recent, has a C- rating)

Illinois

Clinton 62
Sanders 25
Click to expand...

just making a quick glance at the crosstabs, i'm gonna wager this isn't particularly accurate

(namely the fact that they don't provide age weights, and also clinton winning white people 60-30)
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Bowdz said:
I have a feeling (much like the amazing Nate Silver) that Trump's going to lose FL and OH. The polls are moving away from him in both States and it's hard to see him beating beating he incumbents. We're headed to a brokered convention bros.

BELIEVE!
Click to expand...
I don't believe the polls are moving away from him in both states. There have been four Ohio polls since March 1. Trump leads in all but 1, and the margins have jumped around a bit. In Florida like four new polls On huffpo came out showing big leads: ppp, trafalgar, opinion saavy, and Suffolk. Only mason Dixon is less than 8 points.
 
N

noshten

Member
Maledict said:
The early debates helped Hilary, not Bernie. Debates have never really helped Bernie - despite what his supporters thought, Hilary tends to come out on top because she's got an insane grasp of detail and has been doing this for decades.

Overall there are simply, way, way too many debates on both sides. You have 3 maximum for a presidential election, why on earth do you need 8+ for the primaries?
Click to expand...

Sure....
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
so can someone point out to me specific posts where regulars in this thread (or other members of so-called "HillaryGAF") have generalized all Bernie supporters as closet Trump supporters and racists?
 
V

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
The list of firsts for Dr. Ben Carson is impressive:

-first to separate conjoined twins at the head
-first black republican candidate to ever lead in the polls
-first black man to endorse Donald Trump

What a legacy
 
M

mo60

Member
About the GE I could see Hilary easily getting around 400 electoral votes if trump is the republican nominee, but 500+ electoral votes is impossible for the dems in this election cycle. The popular vote for trump will probably be between 40% and 45% if Hilary does get around 400 electoral votes.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I don't believe the polls are moving away from him in both states. There have been four Ohio polls since March 1. Trump leads in all but 1, and the margins have jumped around a bit. In Florida like four new polls On huffpo came out showing big leads: ppp, trafalgar, opinion saavy, and Suffolk. Only mason Dixon is less than 8 points.
Click to expand...
Yeah, where is this movement because I'm not seein it. When the early votes come in and Rubio's up, people are gonna die lol.
 
T

Third Strike

Member
mo60 said:
About the GE I could see Hilary easily getting around 400 electoral votes if trump is the republican nominee, but 500+ electoral votes is impossible for the dems in this election cycle. The popular vote for trump will probably be between 40% and 45% if Hilary does get around 400 electoral votes.
Click to expand...

I always saw 395 as the ceiling for the Democrats in the general election. That's Obama's map, plus Arizona, Missouri, and Georgia. I can't think of a second state that would flip. Maybe Montona, Alaska, or South Carolina?
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Trump hitting Sanders of all people today in STL. Calling him pathetic for letting the BLM ladies take over his mic a few months ago.

And now hitting Kasich for bringing Obamacare to Ohio.
 
K

Kyosaiga

Banned
Third Strike said:
I always saw 395 as the ceiling for the Democrats in the general election. That's Obama's map, plus Arizona, Missouri, and Georgia. I can't think of a second state that would flip. Maybe Montona, Alaska, or South Carolina?
Click to expand...
South Carolina?

Hahaha. Trump will win New York against Clinton before South Carolina votes for a democrat.
 
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