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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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M

Macho Madness

Member
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Sernie Banders Sanders by more than 600 delegates (when you include superdelegates), 1,194 to 569. That is 1,189 delegates short of the 2,383 needed to clinch the Democratic nomination. For Clinton to reach 2,383 BEFORE June, she would need to win 58 percent of the remaining pledged delegates – her current pledged percentage against Sanders – between now and May 17 (a total of 1,930 pledged delegates), as well as add to her superdelegate lead (with 200-plus undeclared superdelegates remaining). So clinching the nomination by May is doable for Clinton, but not if Sanders starts pulling off more surprises like his Michigan victory on Tuesday. If Clinton and Sanders split the remaining 1,930 pledged delegates 50-50, as well as the undecided superdelegates, Clinton won’t hit 2,383 until June. By the way, for Sanders to hit 2,383, he will need to win 60% of all remaining delegates, including superdelegates.
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We discussed this a bit yesterday, there's the full write-up.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
There's a PA GE poll out showing Hillary beating Baby Hand Man by 5 (the margin Obama beat Romney by) in the state but I'm not going to post it in that thread.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
E7044748-1A2C-44C8-8147-6ABF84AC8452.png.jpeg


940F942C-D7E6-4CD6-9ED0-A8C0FC196685.gif
 
H

Holmes

Member
Eh, general election polls. We're to assume Clinton is +9 to +13 in the national polls (depending on the pollster) but also believe she's only +5 in Pennsylvania and Ohio? This is why general election polling is pointless at this stage.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Holmes said:
Eh, general election polls. We're to assume Clinton is +9 to +13 in the national polls (depending on the pollster) but also believe she's only +5 in Pennsylvania and Ohio? This is why general election polling is pointless at this stage.
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So is "40,000 voters switch party registration" but it's not stopping anyone
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Bowdz said:
Lmao, such a bullshit map. Not a chance in hell of Mississippi or Louisiana turning blue this cycle.
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I know, so damn funny.. he's a NeverTrumper trying to scare his fellow Republicans right now. It'll be fun to see how his crowd handles the rest of the year.
 
T

Third Strike

Member
Bowdz said:
Lmao, such a bullshit map. Not a chance in hell of Mississippi or Louisiana turning blue this cycle.
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Yeah...

Regardless of who the nominee is, I can't see either candidate having a total sweep like Reagan did in 1984. Worse case scenario, the GOP's losing map would look like McCain's in 2008. For Democrats, a map in between what Gore got in 2000 and Kerry's map in 2004. I honestly can't see Democrats losing Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado in the general election, especially since the Hispanic vote has grown in the past decade.

Of course, Trump running as a third party would be the only viable situation where the Democrats could completely sweep the map.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Sent in my optional request to vote in California's primary. By the time that comes around I'll be sick of primary season three times over.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Obama 2008 + GA + AZ + MO is the best Hillary will most likely do.

TX requires a massive registration drive of Latinos in unprecedented numbers by the millions. Not happening in 6-8 months.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
I want to know how much of a "Shy Trumpy" effect we could possibly see, where voters publicly claim they're not going with him while privately casting their ballots for him.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Obama 2008 + GA + AZ + MO is the best Hillary will most likely do.

TX requires a massive registration drive of Latinos in unprecedented numbers by the millions. Not happening in 6-8 months.
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If Trump gets under 45% I think Alaska could flip. Trump feeds on racial resentment and its a very, very white state with lots of independents.

You're right that the Dems would probably have to spend $100 million+ to get to within 5 points in Texas. Just not worth it.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
What are the % chances of a brokered convention?

I don't care what Reince guesses, because that's just damage control.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
If Trump gets under 45% I think Alaska could flip. Trump feeds on racial resentment and its a very, very white state with lots of independents.

You're right that the Dems would probably have to spend $100 million+ to get to within 5 points in Texas. Just not worth it.
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Montana would flip before Alaska.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
If that map (or something similar to it) came to pass and Republicans still held the House I would scream.

Just imagine Paul Ryan's smug little mug

"Sure, President Clinton won over 500 electoral votes, but you know, people voted for Republicans in the House, so it's clear what the people wanted."

(Generic ballot was like D+13, final margin was 218-217 R/D)
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
RastaMentality said:
Trump's GE numbers really faltered with the KKK stuff. Hope she can drive that home some more when he gets it.
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She should drive that and the his campaign manger assaulted a female reporter and then tried to gaslight her while linking to an article denying the event written by a rape denying white supremacist who shit on floors in college event as well.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Aaron Strife said:
If that map (or something similar to it) came to pass and Republicans still held the House I would scream.

Just imagine Paul Ryan's smug little mug

"Sure, President Clinton won over 500 electoral votes, but you know, people voted for Republicans in the House, so it's clear what the people wanted."

(Generic ballot was like D+13, final margin was 218-217 R/D)
Click to expand...
Democrats would be scrambling to get someone to cross the aisle.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
Macho Madness said:
Yeah, the Cruz people apparently pulled all ads from Florida because they "didn't need to bother trying to take down Rubio anymore"
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That's just bravado. They're pulling ads because they can't beat Trump, and it's winner-take-all. Cruz can certainly win the nomination, and I hope he does, but to do so he needs to focus on mainline Republicans outside the South.

Roland_Gunner said:
If Trump gets under 45% I think Alaska could flip. Trump feeds on racial resentment and its a very, very white state with lots of independents.

You're right that the Dems would probably have to spend $100 million+ to get to within 5 points in Texas. Just not worth it.
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Alaska is only 65% white, comparable to Nevada or Florida. It's got an enormous Native American population (14-21%) which I assume is pretty blue.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Aaron Strife said:
If that map (or something similar to it) came to pass and Republicans still held the House I would scream.

Just imagine Paul Ryan's smug little mug

"Sure, President Clinton won over 500 electoral votes, but you know, people voted for Republicans in the House, so it's clear what the people wanted."

(Generic ballot was like D+13, final margin was 218-217 R/D)
Click to expand...

Agreed. That's the worst part of any election outcome where the GOP still controls the House (which is inevitable). Ryan and the GOP leadership will claim that they have the mandate from the voters because they still control it regardless of whether or not they lose the Senate. They will be just as obstructionist because of this fact. Luckily, Hilldawg and the Dems can go nuclear on SCOTUS nominations and just ram through 3 judges without their consent.

Winning the Senate is imperative this year.
 
O

Ophelion

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
She should drive that and the his campaign manger assaulted a female reporter and then tried to gaslight her while linking to an article denying the event written by a rape denying white supremacist who shit on floors in college event as well.
Click to expand...

She needs to destroy him. I need to see his soul get taken on national television. C'mon Hillz, I need the resolution of that. I'm so sick of Trump's shit and all the brainless bigots he enables. Just once, we don't have to take the high road, surely. This dude needs to be ruined. Like, for the sake of the soul of America.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Holmes said:
Democrats would be scrambling to get someone to cross the aisle.
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I think this would happen too. Someone like Walter Jones who's had enough and just says "fuck it," announces his retirement and that he'll be caucusing with the Democrats for the remainder of his term.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
We Ask America (538 only gave it a weight of 3 despite being most recent, has a C- rating)

Illinois

Clinton 62
Sanders 25

Trump 33
Cruz 20
Kasich 18
Rubio 11
 
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