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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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I'm sorry that you need flashy cookies instead of simple ones like trefoils.

Lorna Doones are superior to Trefoils. :p

Trump: Has anyone ever had more spent on them on negative ads?

hillary-clinton-laughing-bill-clinton.gif
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I can't believe Trump turned the protests into a huge plus for himself, while making everyone else look bad.
Everyone but the left of the left (ok so Rachel Maddow) knew that would happen. Even spewbio went back to the bullshit about divisive Obama.
 
Try to convince her that people just call youtube 'tube.

The other day she ended up on "a very naughty site" because I didn't have the YouTube app on her phone where she could find it easily. I'm terrified she's going to want to discuss what she may have seen. I mean, I'm guessing it's not worse than Grindr....
 

Grief.exe

Member
what if people declare victory if Trump doesn't become the nominee and whoever does wins because they don't feel the need to vote in the general since they already "won"?

There are several worries about getting the Democratic electorate out to vote.

The Democratic primary turnout has been very low so far, often lower than 2008/2012. Couple that with a potential Presidential candidate in Hillary with high unfavorables and you may have a problem. Especially with the general population being less than excited or lukewarm in their perceptions towards Hillary.

If you want me to address something, just quote something random of mine. I always try to respond.

Same as it was yesterday. It was an incredibly stupid thing to say for a ton of reasons. There are tons of things she could have praised Mrs. Reagan on, and why her brain went to freaking HIV/AIDS, I've no idea. However, she admitted she was wrong for saying it and apologized. Instead of judging her on one statement given at a funeral for a former First Lady, I will judge her stance on HIV/AIDS policy based on what she's done and what she's laid out.

That seems like a reasonable position and I told my wife something similar yesterday.
 

royalan

Member
I feel like this weekend is doing a lot to make this election Trump versus Sanders.

On an ideological level, that makes sense. Both men represent the extreme fringes of their parties. This clash was bound to happen.

But whereas Trump is doing this with the support of the right as the legitimate frontrunner, Bernie Sanders is not. The ass whooping Hillary has been providing Bernie has been overwhelming and painful.

Makes me wonder what the shift is going to be like when people realize that Bernie is not the Democratic nominee.

Besides Trump, I'm trying to figure out who wins here.
 
Blue shirt Trump bro can get it. Seriously. Except i'm taken, but damn, he could get the digits.

I'm not sure that the protesters being labeled Berniebros hurts anyone. I doubt that persuades people one way or the other on the Democratic side. It's just easier for Trump to tie them to Bernie than Hillary.

Us Hillary supporters are too busy smoking $100 bills and using cleverly applied makeup to cover our reptilian scales to go protest like that. :p
 
When the gop says Obama stroked racial fears, what event was this? They never give examples.

Please dont tell me they're still upset over the "police acted stupidly "remark
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I feel like this weekend is doing a lot to make this election Trump versus Sanders.

On an ideological level, that makes sense. Both men represent the extreme fringes of their parties. This clash was bound to happen.

But whereas Trump is doing this with the support of the right as the legitimate frontrunner, Bernie Sanders is not. The ass whooping Hillary has been providing Bernie has been overwhelming and painful.

Makes me wonder what the shift is going to be like when people realize that Bernie is not the Democratic nominee.

Besides Trump, I'm trying to figure out who wins here.

The news media.
 

Grief.exe

Member
I feel like this weekend is doing a lot to make this election Trump versus Sanders.

On an ideological level, that makes sense. Both men represent the extreme fringes of their parties. This clash was bound to happen.

But whereas Trump is doing this with the support of the right as the legitimate frontrunner, Bernie Sanders is not. The ass whooping Hillary has been providing Bernie has been overwhelming and painful.

Makes me wonder what the shift is going to be like when people realize that Bernie is not the Democratic nominee.

Besides Trump, I'm trying to figure out who wins here.

I would say 'ass whooping' is slightly hyperbolic for someone who is currently ~90% of target delegate count per 538.

Bernie is assuredly resonating with sections of the Democrat party that weren't thought to be possible when he started his campaign.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I would say 'ass whooping' is slightly hyperbolic for omeone who is currently ~90% of target delegate count per 538.

Bernie is assuredly resonating with sections of the Democrat party that weren't thought to be possible when he started his campaign.

Well, 86%, not 90%. But this isn't the Republican race. There are no winner-take-all races for Bernie to makeup this delegate chasm. It's a larger gap than Obama ever had over Hillary in 2008 (120 delegates).

Also, it's the Democratic Party.
 
Also, Bernie's even further behind on the Cook Report Scorecard.

Hillary's at 129%
Bernie's at 76%

"Hillary can't seem to win even against a Communist!"

Mwahahaahahaha.
 

mo60

Member
It looks like ted cruz will be the first one to break 50% of the vote in a US state since it looks like he has over two times the vote share of his nearest competitor right now in Wyoming.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
~90%≠90%



I'm well aware, simply pointing out the word choice was a bit absurd.

There's no reason to say ~90% and round up 4% (which is an extremely important amount when we're talking about 2000 delegates) when you have the number right there in front of you.

It is, as one could may take issue with, "an ass-whooping".
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think a 220 delegate lead by March 15 counts as an asswhooping. Hillary can flop around until the end now and still win. That's how big her whooping was. Now obviously she won't do that. But the lead is even bigger than the one Obama at at this point.

IMO the only material contraction will come in April as all the caucuses and plains states vote. She's going to lose 60/40 in every contest.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Forgot where I was for a minute all hail the queen

clintonpantsuits2.gif

This is so dumb. If you want to actually have a discussion and defend your points of you, do that. Don't hide behind "lol PoliGAF Hil hivemind". This is a discussion board. I responded to your points. If you have issues with what I posted, then tell me.
 
Also, Bernie's even further behind on the Cook Report Scorecard.

Hillary's at 129%
Bernie's at 76%

"Hillary can't seem to win even against a Communist!"

Mwahahaahahaha.

a scorecard that factors in superdelegates as if they wouldn't switch over if she actually lost the pledged delegate lead?

yeah trying to assure yourself with superdelegates is getting annoying, not to mention entirely unnecessary
 

My google-fu isn't good enough to find it now, but when "Hillarycare" was defeated, Bernie blamed himself. He apologized to Bill Clinton and said instead of an avowed Socialist agreeing with the plan, he should have railed against it for not being progressive enough. He thought he made it easier to demonize by agreeing with it.
 

Iolo

Member
a scorecard that factors in superdelegates as if they wouldn't switch over if she actually lost the pledged delegate lead?

yeah trying to assure yourself with superdelegates is getting annoying, not to mention entirely unnecessary

Bernie's only hope is that superdelegates switch to him after he racks up some wins, even though he will be behind in pledged delegates. And this is his explicit strategy now.
 
I think a 220 delegate lead by March 15 counts as an asswhooping. Hillary can flop around until the end now and still win. That's how big her whooping was. Now obviously she won't do that. But the lead is even bigger than the one Obama at at this point.

IMO the only material contraction will come in April as all the caucuses and plains states vote. She's going to lose 60/40 in every contest.

Assuming a 60/40 Bernie split in all the caucuses/primaries that run through April 9th, Bernie will net somewhere around 66 delegates. Based on current polling, Hillary will be able to nearly wipe out that entire gain in Maryland on April 26th.

a scorecard that factors in superdelegates as if they wouldn't switch over if she actually lost the pledged delegate lead?

yeah trying to assure yourself with superdelegates is getting annoying, not to mention entirely unnecessary

I'm not trying to assure myself with superdelegates.

Hillary has a 225 pledged delegate advantage. If Hillary has one single pledged delegate more than Bernie, she will be the nominee. Period. They will not abandon ship to tie themselves to Bernie Sanders. You may not like Superdelegates, but they are part of the primary, and the only way to win is through them. Bernie could have tried making nice with them, instead of throwing huge swaths of the Democratic Party under the bus.
 
I'm not trying to assure myself with superdelegates.

Hillary has a 225 pledged delegate advantage. If Hillary has one single pledged delegate more than Bernie, she will be the nominee. Period. They will not abandon ship to tie themselves to Bernie Sanders. You may not like Superdelegates, but they are part of the primary, and the only way to win is through them. Bernie could have tried making nice with them, instead of throwing huge swaths of the Democratic Party under the bus.

I'm not saying that.

If, on the other hand, Sanders ends up with more pledged delegates, expecting the current superdelegate situation to hold is stupid.
 

Snake

Member
Gallup has Obama's approval at 51/44.

Yaaaasssssss.

If there's anyone around who still thinks we're heading for a repeat of the 2008 election but in reverse, keep in mind that George W. Bush was at 32% approval / 64% disapproval at this point in his Presidency.
 

Iolo

Member
I'm not saying that.

If, on the other hand, Sanders ends up with more pledged delegates, expecting the current superdelegate situation to hold is stupid.

But his strategy now seems to be to win via superdelegates.

Sanders wins Ohio, there is a new narrative for the next three months, and the nomination fight goes on to the California primary on June 7 in a way that no one ever predicted,” said Robert Shrum, a veteran political adviser to several Democratic presidential campaigns. “Ohio would give Sanders further legitimacy and the standing to go all the way to the convention and make the case to superdelegates there that he is better able to win in November.”

Mr. Sanders acknowledges that it will not be easy to erase Mrs. Clinton’s delegate lead, but he is convinced that he can persuade superdelegates, who can support any Democratic candidate for the nomination, to back him if he wins enough states.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/12/us/politics/bernie-sanders.html
 

Clefargle

Member
I think it is telling that many Bernie supporters are whining about Superdelegates over the last few months. It indicates that they were completely uninformed about the democratic primary system until they read about the "anti-democratic Superdelegate" system on Reddit. I have been on r/politics for two years and I never saw these threads about how evil and Undemocratic it is until recently. If they had a problem with it, the course of action would have been to complain about it last year or hell 2014 would have been better.
 
But his strategy now seems to be to win via superdelegates.



http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/12/us/politics/bernie-sanders.html

wait what

LMAO that's not gonna work

none of us are assuming that. We know how the game works.

also no you and adam have been including superdelegates in posts throughout, such as here:

Correct. You cannot get into a delegate deficit early, especially when you're a challenger. Bernie needs about 60% of all delegates from here on out to break even.

What's interesting is how Hillary is following part of Obama's 08 strategy, but conceeding the caucuses (just not to the same margins as in 2008). Obama's largest delegate lead in 2008 was 102, I believe. The closest Hillary ever got it to was 60(ish). With her super delegate lead, it's just not probable that Bernie can come back.

(it's 54% among pledged delegates)
 
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