Support NeoGAF

[Basileus777]

I miss Jeb.

 

[studyguy]

Jeb's bad voodoo had to go somewhere. Looks like it went to Hillary this week.
His gaffes are just too similar, sad Jeb! lives on in spirit.

 

[Kangi]

Hillary gained as many net delegates as Bernie did in Michigan with her wins in American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands

Mmm talk more math to me.

Establishment math.

 

[Cerium]

Hillary does do better when running from behind, and I would worry what that would mean in a general election, except that against Trump you could probably run O'Malley and win.

 

[VendettaRed07]

He's largely correct. A quick example of this is back in... '90, when Fernando Collor became president, after a campaign that had this kinda coverage (thats not a shop, btw. dudes legit posed for it. dude on the left also had an ad where he sported a keikogi and started karate chopping fools, but the yt aint kind. also had another where the beardie's ex-wife stated that he had forced her to commit an abortion. Was elected on an anticorruption platform. was impeached when his brother tattled on the massive corruption scheme he was a part of. that whole period was amazing. Anyway). One of the first things he does is call our cars, quite literally, shitty carriages. Largely because they were/are. Massively protected industry, borders closed to imports thanks to the dictatorship and rampant inflation will do that to a market.

Also, because those great military minds excelled at everything, they kinda sorta thought it would be a good idea to prohibit the importation of computer software and hardware back in 84. The idea is that it would help Brazil develop its own market and stuff. Yeah... went about as well as you think.

Solution? Drop taxes on imports, which were at... 85% at the time... to 0. Also drop the prohibition on importing vehicles, which was in place since '76, and on computer stuff.

Result? well, the car industry kinda instantly started firing reams of people, because of course they would.

Result one... month later, after massive backlash? Tax went up to 35%, but now we gots a taste, and car imports became commonplace, forcing the local industry to catch up.

tbh the more you look at the late 80's early 90's fuckery going on in brazil, the more benj's positions make sense. And that scares me.

BUT THE POINT IS brazil isn't so much an example of why free trade is necessary as it is a shining example of what endemic corruption at all levels of society will do to a place, especially when allied with low education. Lack of free trade is but a symptom.

Huh. Very interesting. Thank you for the insight. :0)

Spoiler

although I hope things do improve for Brazil soon. :0(

 

[Teggy]

Hillary gained as many net delegates as Bernie did in Michigan with her wins in American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands

And then Bernie stole them back in Iowa.

I kid

Spoiler

?

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

All these Hillary gaffes in OT are making me Diablos guys. Reassure me Bernie can't win.

Bernie's going to win more than 80% of the states that vote after March 15th.



Diablos!!! Diablos!!!

 

[Tranqueris]

I miss Jeb.

https://vine.co/v/ie0vLEeVUY3

 

[Coriolanus]

If a pollster called me up and asked me what issues were important to me, #1 would be making sure motherfucking Jeb is not allowed to be president. We simply could not allow the coolest president ever to be succeeded by that dweeb. Al Gore and Mitt Romney probably picked on him in school. We all know W tortured him. Even his own mom was on record saying he shouldn't be president and he wasn't her favorite kid. I am grateful to Donald Drumpf for burying him. Bury isn't even an accurate account of what happened. He hired Haliburton to dig a 150 foot well on the Crawford Ranch and then Spartan kicked him into it while yelling "NERDDDD"

The thing that annoys me the most about him is that he didnt stick around long enough to be dragged over the coals for Schiavo.

 

[VRMN]

Worked out well for Michigan!

Spoiler

I'm not suggesting Bernie's going to win Florida.

Michigan has no early voting. Thanks Snyder.

 

[B-Dubs]

The thing that annoys me the most about him is that he didnt stick around long enough to be dragged over the coals for Schiavo.

The only way that would have happened is in a general and I want him far away from that shit.

Michigan has no early voting. Thanks Snyder.

Also, thanks to PD for his vote.

 

[Kangi]

Michigan has no early voting. Thanks Snyder.

Referring to how she won absentee ballots by a landslide and that gave everyone false hope.

Though yeah, not the same thing.

 

[royalan]

All these Hillary gaffes in OT are making me Diablos guys. Reassure me Bernie can't win.

I mean, he could. I think his campaign's new strategy is to shrink Hillary's lead as much as they can and then appeal to those evil superdelegates to switch support.

Good luck with that, though.

 

[Teggy]

Oh, I forgot to mention this before, but how did I get spoiled on Xenoblade in the safe confines of Poligaf? About

Spoiler

Fiora not being dead

<shakes fist>

 

[Iolo]

Bernie's going to win more than 80% of the states that vote after March 15th.
Diablos!!! Diablos!!!

Again, this is his strategy now--not to win pledged delegates, not even to win the majority of votes, but to simply win the greatest number of states in the greatest number of regions, and then convince supers to switch sides based on this perceived electability and Hillary "only winning red states" or regionally in the south.

 

[Makai]

I will forgive Jeb if he endorses Trump - the most humiliating act I can imagine him doing.

Wait, I already have one better. Jeb becomes Trump's running mate and Trump bullies him through the general.

"They say I'm unhinged and I need to calm down. It's fine. I'll let Jeb take over for a day and they won't call me that anymore. What does the VP do, anyway? I guess I can let him handle the White House Myspace account. It's an important job...a very important job."

 

[B-Dubs]

I will forgive Jeb if he endorses Trump - the most humiliating act I can imagine him doing.

Wait, I already have one better. Jeb becomes Trump's running mate and Trump bullies him through the general.

"They say I'm unhinged and I need to calm down. It's fine. I'll let Jeb take over for a day and they won't call me that anymore. What does the VP do, anyway? I guess I can let him handle the White House Myspace account. It's an important job...a very important job."

I've had dreams about this and they were amazingly funny. Trump should just pick him so he'll have a punching bag in the general.

 

[Coriolanus]

The only way that would have happened is in a general and I want him far away from that shit.

I was half-hoping for a "your brother kept us safe as well as you kept terry schiavo safe" trump moment.

Never came ;__;

 

[Box of Kittens]

Even his own mom was on record saying he shouldn't be president and he wasn't her favorite kid.

"If you're saying I play favorites you're wrong. I love all my children equally."

(Earlier that day)

"I don't care for Jeb."

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Again, this is his strategy now--not to win pledged delegates, not even to win the majority of votes, but to simply win the greatest number of states in the greatest number of regions, and then convince supers to switch sides based on this perceived electability and Hillary "only winning red states" or regionally in the south.

That's a bad strategy. His best strategy would be to close the gap considerably leading into June and then pour literally tens of millions into California. If he can win big there after closing the gap to <100 delegates, he might have a shot.

 

[studyguy]

I just don't see where the Trump is suddenly Lee Atwater reborn level political strategist idea is coming from. It just sounds like the internet echo chamber is getting the best of people and they're drawing parallels where there's nothing but smoke. Maybe I'm wrong and he is a master manipulator, NIMBLE NAVIGATOR and the like, but I just don't see it.

 

[Retromelon]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWMXI7t2V44

 

[Iolo]

That's a bad strategy. His best strategy would be to close the gap considerably leading into June and then pour literally tens of millions into California. If he can win big there after closing the gap to <100 delegates, he might have a shot.

I would agree that this is his only shot and it would be a legitimate win. A strategy that relies on winning from behind with the help of supers would contravene everything his campaign has been saying about the responsibility of supers, and would probably tear the party apart. But it seems like he may be pursuing this strategy based on comments made after Michigan. :/

 

[Makai]

I just learned Gilmore was an RNC chairman.

 

[shinra-bansho]

That's a bad strategy. His best strategy would be to close the gap considerably leading into June and then pour literally tens of millions into California. If he can win big there after closing the gap to <100 delegates, he might have a shot.

Are you expecting him to win California by like 20 points in this scenario... :/

 

[B-Dubs]

I just learned Gilmore was an RNC chairman.

He killed a man in Vietnam you know.

Are you expecting him to win California by like 20 points in this scenario... :/

It'd need to be more than that.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Again, this is his strategy now--not to win pledged delegates, not even to win the majority of votes, but to simply win the greatest number of states in the greatest number of regions, and then convince supers to switch sides based on this perceived electability and Hillary "only winning red states" or regionally in the south.

Flimsy argument given that Clinton has been competitive in most Northern states hence why Sanders hasn't actually been able to catch up

 

[Drakeon]

That's a bad strategy. His best strategy would be to close the gap considerably leading into June and then pour literally tens of millions into California. If he can win big there after closing the gap to <100 delegates, he might have a shot.

How is California within reach with it's rather significant minority populations?

 

[pigeon]

Again, this is his strategy now--not to win pledged delegates, not even to win the majority of votes, but to simply win the greatest number of states in the greatest number of regions, and then convince supers to switch sides based on this perceived electability and Hillary "only winning red states" or regionally in the south.

I don't believe this is really Bernie's strategy because it's a non-strategy. There's zero possibility that the supers will switch if Bernie doesn't have a lead. He probably needs a large lead! And the Democratic establishment is, frankly, not dumb enough to buy the electability or regionalism arguments. They're really bad arguments!

So I guess Bernie may be SAYING this is the plan, but either his campaign team is idiots or they have some other plan. Which might just be to keep running knowing they they can't win.

 

[excelsiorlef]

I don't believe this is really Bernie's strategy because it's a non-strategy. There's zero possibility that the supers will switch if Bernie doesn't have a lead. He probably needs a large lead! And the Democratic establishment is, frankly, not dumb enough to buy the electability or regionalism arguments. They're really bad arguments!

So I guess Bernie may be SAYING this is the plan, but either his campaign team is idiots or they have some other plan. Which might just be to keep running knowing they they can't win.

Correct

 

[Tesseract]

Do you think dws will resign soon?

Also, when are we getting those paid speeches ...

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

I would agree that this is his only shot and it would be a legitimate win. A strategy that relies on winning from behind with the help of supers would contravene everything his campaign has been saying about the responsibility of supers, and would probably tear the party apart. But it seems like he may be pursuing this strategy based on comments made after Michigan. :/

The supers won't jump ship. It would be one thing if Hillary was a Donald Trump-type character, but she's not. The more I look at the schedule going forward, the more I think California (and the other states voting that day to a lesser extent) are going to decide the nomination. Hillary's lead will basically do nothing but narrow from now until June. How narrow that lead is determines how seriously California will be fought for. Kind of exciting for me, given that I'm in CA.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Are you expecting him to win California by like 20 points in this scenario... :/

How is California within reach with it's rather significant minority populations?

Winning CA big is his best shot. Especially compared to the super delegate strategy. I'm also assuming he'll pour unprecedented amounts of money into the state if he's still competitive at that point. There's only one primary after June 7th (DC), so whatever money he has is going to be dumped into California, with some scraps tossed at the Dakotas, New Mexico and New Jersey.

 

[danm999]

Tad Devine was involved in setting up superdelegates no? Surely he knows how they work.

 

[Drakeon]

Winning CA big is his best shot. Especially compared to the super delegate strategy.

... But thats not an answer as to how he wins a state with significant minority populations.

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

Do you think dws will resign soon?

Also, when are we getting those paid speeches ...

DWS is what you get when you let your daughter play with mommies make up and you just want to take a nap because you had too many margaritas and the pool boy is coming over. It's cute at first, but it is never a substitute for good parenting.

 

[BanGy.nz]

California? he needs to survive New York first.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

... But thats not an answer as to how he wins a state with significant minority populations.

California is 7.2% black, and that's the minority group he really struggles with. Michigan is double that, for comparison.

 

[Abinash117]

I don't believe this is really Bernie's strategy because it's a non-strategy. There's zero possibility that the supers will switch if Bernie doesn't have a lead. He probably needs a large lead! And the Democratic establishment is, frankly, not dumb enough to buy the electability or regionalism arguments. They're really bad arguments!

So I guess Bernie may be SAYING this is the plan, but either his campaign team is idiots or they have some other plan. Which might just be to keep running knowing they they can't win.

That probably doesn't stop them to thinking it is a viable strategy.

 

[Makai]

Trump better not puss out on the next debate. I need one more.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Winning CA big is his best shot. Especially compared to the super delegate strategy. I'm also assuming he'll pour unprecedented amounts of money into the state if he's still competitive at that point. There's only one primary after June 7th (DC), so whatever money he has is going to be dumped into California, with some scraps tossed at the Dakotas, New Mexico and New Jersey.

Yes, but even in the unlikely scenario he's only at a 100 delegate deficit, there are 475 delegates proportionally allocated. And while many of these are at CD level you're still talking about basically a 20+ pt victory. Basically unlikely scenario squared.

 

[Tesseract]

The supers will switch if Hillary crumbles like the cookie cutter neoliberal coattail rider she is

 

[ivysaur12]

California is 7.2% black, and that's the minority group he really struggles with. Michigan is double that, for comparison.

But he also is losing Hispanic/Latino numbers by pretty significant margins. You can't with a Dem primary in CA losing Latinos and black voters.

 

[Drakeon]

California is 7.2% black, and that's the minority group he really struggles with.

We have no idea how he does with Asians (correct me if I'm wrong, but they are 13% of the state).

And doesn't Clinton typically beat him with latinos by 15-20 points?

 

[Cerium]

Trump better not puss out on the next debate. I need one more.

They'll be asked about the violence. Cruz will have to decide if he wants to condemn it and lose his crazy voters, or if he'll sell whatever remains of his soul and defend Trump.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

But he also is losing Hispanic/Latino numbers by pretty significant margins. You can't with a Dem primary in CA losing Latinos and black voters.

I'm not aware of how he's doing with hispanic voters, to be honest. I'd like to see some of the data on that.

We have no idea how he does with Asians (correct me if I'm wrong, but they are 13% of the state).

And doesn't Clinton typically beat him with latinos by 15-20 points?

California and New York are the only two states with sizable asian populations as far as I'm aware, so it'll be a while before we know.

 

[theprodigy]

How is California within reach with it's rather significant minority populations?

It's not likely, sure, but it's not like Sanders has any other route to win anyway so a Hail Mary in California is basically his best shot.

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

They'll be asked about the violence. Cruz will have to decide if he wants to condemn it and lose his crazy voters, or if he'll sell whatever remains of his soul and defend Trump.

Cruz already condemned last night on Fox News.

 

[Cerium]

We have no idea how he does with Asians (correct me if I'm wrong, but they are 13% of the state).

Cruz already condemned last night on Fox News.

He sort of walked it back today. He'll have time to decide what he's going to do before the debate.

 

[Drakeon]

But he also is losing Hispanic/Latino numbers by pretty significant margins. You can't with a Dem primary in CA losing Latinos and black voters.

Especially not when Latinos now outnumber Whites in CA. They make up 40% of the state.