Coriolanus
Banned
His best strategy would've been to stay in the bloody party when he first joined it in 2006.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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His best strategy would've been to stay in the bloody party when he first joined it in 2006.
All this tells me is that they don't know who he is. It's also from November, but I would understand if polls regarding this specific subject are not often conducted.
...That makes zero sense. Trump has near 100% name recognition and unfamiliarity doesn't correlate with unfavorable ratings.
A rating that intense would actually indicate extraordinarily high familiarity.
Latest info I could find re: Latino support.
The gist of it is that Clinton leads Sanders in support by about an average of 20-25 points.
I apologize, I was referring to Sanders specifically.
The gist of it is that Clinton leads Sanders in support by about an average of 20-25 points.
I apologize, I was referring to Sanders specifically.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I'm nitpicking here, but according to the 2010 census non-hispanic whites are 42.3% of the population and hispanic people of any race are 37.6%. Not that this would matter much in the overall outcome compared to what you said.
From a 2014 article by Pew Research. Latinos lead 39% to 38.8% White.
Oh wait, the mistake was mine then. For some reason I thought you were talking about Trump.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Since then she won Texas 70-30 among Hispanic voters IIRC so it may be more dramatic than that. It was a bit more split in Colorado though I think.
VendettaRed07
Member
I wish Nintendo would just unveil NX already so I would have something to take my attention away from this shitty primary
Retromelon
Member
They should take a cue from Donald Trump and go third party.
Taking a cue from Donald Trump would be more like a successful hostile takeover of Sony Computer Entertainment.
New Jersey and New Mexico also vote the same day as California so Sanders would also need to offset the gains Clinton makes in those states as well. Basically hoping to erase your large pledged delegate lead by spending all your money on California is so stupid that of course Weaver and Devine would do it.
theprodigy
Member
Imagine a scenario where a candidate from California is down by <100 delegates heading into June? That would be the greatest home state bounce
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
What makes you think Clinton will win New Mexico? I don't see why it would deviate significantly from Colorado.
Coriolanus
Banned
hmmm. gotta reverse the roles, tho.
Ninty joining MS and then taking charge of the xbox division.
feels like it'd most likely be the kind of relationship that would benefit both sides immensely, what with both having something that the other desperately lacks.
shinra-bansho
Member
It's a primary rather than a caucus. It was 43% non-white in 08, rather than estimates of like 20% in Colorado's caucuses.
Macho Madness
Member
I'm going to vomit
It'll be more similar to the El Paso + border area of Texas than Colorado by a mile.
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't think he's won anything brown or red yet.
He's won everything that's yellow, with the exception of Mass. and Iowa.
They've both won two orange.
Tuesday will have two reds and three oranges up.
Macho Madness
Member
Interesting NPR segment on Clinton's weakness with the white working class: http://one.npr.org/i/470194240:470194241
It's trade
theprodigy
Member
California isn't >50% nonwhite? I'm surprised
shinra-bansho
Member
Jack Remington
Banned
It'll be kind of hilarious if Bernie comes back and wins this.
The conversation on trade this cycle, from both sides, is idiotic.
The rise of Anti-free trade rhetoric under a normal election cycle would be terrifying for me, this cycle it bearly registers because so many other things are significantly worse.
New Jersey has a higher Asian population than New York (8.3% vs 7.3%), although that's not useful here since NJ hasn't voted yet either.
Washington's up there with about 7.2%. Same with Nevada, but I don't see any exit polling breakdowns from that caucus for Asian-Americans. There are a bunch of articles about Asian-Americans organizing to support Hillary in that caucus, for what it's worth.
Retromelon
Member
Hollywood is why you should not be surprised
Coriolanus
Banned
I feel that the truly idiotic thing to do would be to dismiss/ignore the sentiment. It is there, it is strong, it is likely to become stronger. How do democrats plan to make those that feel/are negatively impacted vote for them?
Telling them "but free trade is awesome you guys!" appears to be insuficient.
Black Republican
Member
any new polls for sunday we expecting?
Abinash117
Member
I don't think it is actually something they think, but is more like something they are putting blaming. The issue with Hillary is that whatever her message is it isn't working on this guys at all, but Bernie has a home-field advantage, and regardless whatever she does it won't be all that effective against him. I think that Bernie don't proved specifics and mostly just use his regular talking points, Hillary can't really compete like that. He looks like he really is passionate about it. What she needs to do is do what she tried to do with Michigan which identify the problem is exactly and run on it with little specifics to show you know how to achieve it and keep running on exclusively that. People apparently trust candidates that just say really simple stuff and repeat it she needs to consistently talk about solutions to their problems.
She shouldn't do that. Some people already think it is bad trying to convince them is difficult and something they don't want to hear even if the situation is complicated. Saying I oppose any free trade that harms the middle class repeat that and expand on that, that is probably better than say that free trade helps in many aspects. All you are really doing is saying free trade is good.
Like the answer to the fracking question. Just take a stance that basically says that fracking should be done more safely and that any fracking that harms the environment should stop. It is vague enough that you can support fracking that doesn't harm the environment without saying it.
Sure the sentiment is there, but I'm talking about the rhetoric. It's been dumb as shit on the issue and needs to be called out as such, on both sides.
shinra-bansho
Member
People in here haven't been dismissing that the sentiment exists. They've been bemoaning the level of discourse in the campaign about trade that only serves to exacerbate said sentiment.
No one is saying a candidate going out there and saying "Free trade is awesome" is going to fix anything, no one is even doing this anyway, so I don't even know where that's coming from.
But there is no room in a political campaign for nuance.
There seems to barely be room for policy. Let alone prescriptions that would actually help as opposed to protectionist gobbledygook.
Disastrous trade deals. Bad deals. Very bad. Poor negotiators. Smart Chinese. Make America great again. Build a wall.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I really think that if someone other than Hillary was the Democratic nominee, Utah would be blue this cycle.
Mormons hate Donald Trump almost as much as racial minorities hate Trump, it's incredible.
Mormons hate Donald Trump almost as much as racial minorities hate Trump, it's incredible.
Jack Remington
Banned
Tyler? Lol, if that's the same guy always hyping up his "models" in the Predictit comments section, dude is a whacko.
I'd take Larry Sabato's prognostications over Tyler's.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
My thoughts on that guy's predictions from a few pages ago:
User 463088
Banned
Here's the problem for Bernie.
Let's say Hillary leaves Tuesday with a 275 pledged delegate advantage.
Let's also say he wins everything from March 22 to April 9th (There are 298 delegates available.) And let's say he wins each contest by 20 points. He'll end up with 179 delegates to Hillary's 119). He'll have cut her lead down to where it is right now--215. We then have states that are advantageous to her, especially delegate rich states like Maryland (where she'd probably net 20 delegates over him, and NY. She, more than likely, would negate his comeback with wins in those two states.
Let's say Hillary leaves Tuesday with a 275 pledged delegate advantage.
Let's also say he wins everything from March 22 to April 9th (There are 298 delegates available.) And let's say he wins each contest by 20 points. He'll end up with 179 delegates to Hillary's 119). He'll have cut her lead down to where it is right now--215. We then have states that are advantageous to her, especially delegate rich states like Maryland (where she'd probably net 20 delegates over him, and NY. She, more than likely, would negate his comeback with wins in those two states.
Both sides are the same.
shinra-bansho
Member
I tried a really generous calculation where she only leaves Tuesday with ~250 delegates lead. He wins all the contests through until June 60/40 except for a few contests like NY, Maryland where I gave her small wins and Penn which I gave him only a marginal win. I think she still ends up over a hundred delegates ahead though going into California.
But somehow in some magical way super delegates will switch to him, even though he will never be ahead of her in pledged delegates.
It's like his healthcare and free college tuition plans, you never get a realistic roadmap for them to happen other than "revolution".
I wish more of his supporters realized the revolution died in 2010 and was buried in 2014.
The sentiment is wrong. You have to dismiss it, because it is wrong. Protectionist trade policies benefit neither us nor our trade partners.
There is a reason you see both Sanders and Trump going full-on populist/protectionist in their rhetoric- no mainstream politician would actually go for that because we know it actively harms us to do it.
There definitely needs to be more done to address our shifting economy - the pain is real - but you don't address it by trying to subsidize something that's dying off due to factors outside of anyone's control.
Would you cut all state support to Boeing knowing that the same policy won't be applied to Airbus?
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
SNL is killing it this year. Hilarious Hilary ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFUcPLVCwMc
Larry David also returns. Lots of great digs at his supporters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVCw8E3ZJF0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFUcPLVCwMc
Larry David also returns. Lots of great digs at his supporters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVCw8E3ZJF0
Aaron Strife
Banned
Even as someone who only got invested into politics recently (shortly after Obama's election), the "revolution" rhetoric I'm seeing from some of the Bernie supporters is kind of irritating.
Asked a friend how Bernie plans to get his single-payer healthcare bill through a Republican Congress. "That's the revolution, bro" was his answer. Oh, well I guess that clears that up.
People like Obama, the Clintons, Ted Kennedy etc. spent decades trying to push healthcare reform through Congress, came out with a watered down bill that does a lot of good but tries not to step on too many toes and is nowhere near universal, and you think Bernie is going to waltz in on day 1, wave his magic wand and bend Congress to his will to totally upend the system? It's a mockery of all the hard work UHC advocates have put in for years to try and achieve some meaningful legislation, even if it's not the perfect solution. Revolution my dick. All his revolution so far has done is produced small wins in a few states and gotten him absolutely crushed in all the other ones.
"But Bernie is the better candidate because he wins blue states!" Oh, you mean the states that were already going to vote Democrat? Because those aren't the states that need convincing. Not saying Hillary is going to win states like SC, AL, MS etc. anytime soon but she's at least demonstrated that she can build pretty strong coalitions. Like even taking that argument at face value (which is incredibly stupid and untruthful anyway) that would actually build a stronger case for Hillary as it would indicate a broader appeal, but thank God all the Southern states have already voted. All of them. Now it's just blue states, baby. Blue states like Missouri and North Carolina. Liberal paragons, those are.
Man fuck these guys who are just like "Yeah the GOP will probably have the House but it's okay, there's a revolution." Paul Ryan and the rest of the GOP leadership insulated from backlash in their R+20 districts laugh at your slacktivist revolution. It's not a revolution unless you fucking win, assholes.
Officerrob
Banned
I prefer Amy Poehler as Hillary, but Larry David is absolutely destroying as Bernie
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