Going through his whole blog, it seems more like he got lucky than anything else. I mean, maybe it could be something if he used it to weigh a model that also incorporated polling data.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
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Going through his whole blog, it seems more like he got lucky than anything else. I mean, maybe it could be something if he used it to weigh a model that also incorporated polling data.
Is there any way to see what the polls only forecast for MI was? Looks like the old ones aren't on the site anymore.
It was the same. Sanders winning when he was down in the poll aggregate by more than 20 points was unprecedented in modern times.
It was also Hillary, but at the same time all the pollsters seemed to be using out of date models and not accounting for the crossover vote. It was a one-in-a-million shot.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I believe it also predicted a greater than 99% chance of Hillary winning.
So Bernie is part of the 1%?
Hexa
Member
Posted?
brainchild's avatar finally makes sense.
Is it possible he was trying to say something other than what the obvious meaning is but just misspoke in a really awful way considering his past statements?
This is legit shocking to me. Of all the things that have happened over the last couple of days, this takes the cake.
But in a very amusing way.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
He might even be part of the top 1/10 of 1%.
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
Tyson has been long overdue to fall from grace. Good riddance to the Sagan gummer!
It's not really surprising. I said this yesterday as it was happening, I sided with the protesters, but I doubt either side looked that good to moderates on both sides. Yesterday was a huge mess. Bad optics and, more importantly, played directly into Trump's hands.
maabus1999
Member
Okay, here's PPP US vs. global exports of goods and services.
Pretty reasonable correlation, I think.
That's because he's 7x olderWell he does have 7x the net worth of Marco Rubio
Snowman Prophet of Doom
Member
Trump has crafted his narrative masterfully, such that being protested actually strengthens him because it plays right into his narrative of how he's the guy "they" don't want you to have. He's 100% the WRONG candidate for liberals to ever try the "no platform" thing that has become popular on college campuses, because it plays right into more generalize anti-liberal sentiment, and I hope young activists are savvy enough to realize this.
That's why I'm glad Trump is running with the "they're Bernie people" narrative. Hillary is in the clear.
Hmmm, a little too closely. Is economic growth driven by trade? Will we reach a point where PPP growth stagnates because the world has become "perfectly" globalized? (no gains left to be made because world economy is efficient)Okay, here's PPP US vs. global exports of goods and services.
Pretty reasonable correlation, I think.
Good luck with that.
Coriolanus
Banned
He's largely correct. A quick example of this is back in... '90, when Fernando Collor became president, after a campaign that had this kinda coverage (thats not a shop, btw. dudes legit posed for it. dude on the left also had an ad where he sported a keikogi and started karate chopping fools, but the yt aint kind. also had another where the beardie's ex-wife stated that he had forced her to commit an abortion. Was elected on an anticorruption platform. was impeached when his brother tattled on the massive corruption scheme he was a part of. that whole period was amazing. Anyway). One of the first things he does is call our cars, quite literally, shitty carriages. Largely because they were/are. Massively protected industry, borders closed to imports thanks to the dictatorship and rampant inflation will do that to a market.
Also, because those great military minds excelled at everything, they kinda sorta thought it would be a good idea to prohibit the importation of computer software and hardware back in 84. The idea is that it would help Brazil develop its own market and stuff. Yeah... went about as well as you think.
Solution? Drop taxes on imports, which were at... 85% at the time... to 0. Also drop the prohibition on importing vehicles, which was in place since '76, and on computer stuff.
Result? well, the car industry kinda instantly started firing reams of people, because of course they would.
Result one... month later, after massive backlash? Tax went up to 35%, but now we gots a taste, and car imports became commonplace, forcing the local industry to catch up.
tbh the more you look at the late 80's early 90's fuckery going on in brazil, the more benj's positions make sense. And that scares me.
BUT THE POINT IS brazil isn't so much an example of why free trade is necessary as it is a shining example of what endemic corruption at all levels of society will do to a place, especially when allied with low education. Lack of free trade is but a symptom.
blackaroni
Member
.
maabus1999
Member
Weren't their pro-Bernie chants among the protesters? I also know a Hillary sign or two showed up, but I think the largest chants were about Bernie. Might be why he targeted him.
That's my mom.
Retromelon
Member
SHITTT CANCEL THE REVOLUTION
maabus1999
Member
Pandering to the youth vote.......
SHITTT CANCEL THE REVOLUTION
What the fuck, that's in ALL FOUR GOSPELS.
Except we didn't call them thugs because they were Jews, not black people. They were militants!
SHITTT CANCEL THE REVOLUTION
I don't think I've seen the yellow/black country sphere before. Unless that's the new flag of the United States of Trump.
Trump says the protesters are bad guys, one rushes the stage today and gets arrested. I don't know how this will impact Tuesday though, i still want Trump to win Florida so Rubio cries.
maabus1999
Member
NC Early Voting Numbers with some stats:
http://www.wral.com/early-voting-racks-up-big-numbers-/15528207/
More Registered Dems than GOP. A lot more women than men. About 10.5% of the total electorate (which is large for primary early voting).
Unaffiliated (Independents that can choose which party to vote for) were about average if a little down, with more going to GOP.
EDIT: If Independent numbers stay similar to early voting results, won't be a good night for Bernie. Trump I think has this state in lock down though among registered GOP, so low unaffiliated won't hurt him much.
Edit 2: Unaffiliated voters voting dem were less than a quarter of registered Dems going by the numbers. Bernie needs to change that around big time on Tuesday.
http://www.wral.com/early-voting-racks-up-big-numbers-/15528207/
More Registered Dems than GOP. A lot more women than men. About 10.5% of the total electorate (which is large for primary early voting).
Unaffiliated (Independents that can choose which party to vote for) were about average if a little down, with more going to GOP.
EDIT: If Independent numbers stay similar to early voting results, won't be a good night for Bernie. Trump I think has this state in lock down though among registered GOP, so low unaffiliated won't hurt him much.
Edit 2: Unaffiliated voters voting dem were less than a quarter of registered Dems going by the numbers. Bernie needs to change that around big time on Tuesday.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Which is why he decided to have it at that venue, he knew what he was doing. He wanted a Reagan vs UC Berkeley hippies moment and they fucking handed it to him right on a silver platter.
There's the real Hillary, drinking a beer in a bar with a baby.
User 463088
Banned
Is that in Ohio? It looks familiar to me. Maybe it's just generic non-dive bar, though.
shinra-bansho
Member
Eh, early voters are gonna be old people and party-affiliated probably. He could have an influx of independent youth on Tuesday.
User 463088
Banned
Youngstown, as a matter of fact.
blackaroni
Member
maabus1999
Member
They do limit the amount of polling stations versus primary day, so yes it can affect which type of voters turn out. Still looking like the polls are going to be close to right though by these numbers.
User 463088
Banned
I'm about 90% sure I've been in that bar before.
But, I just took 3 shots YOLO so who knows.
But, I just took 3 shots YOLO so who knows.
Where at bro? UCSC is my stomping grounds from a few years ago.
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