Support NeoGAF

[QuiteWhittle]

IMO, I find the long Primary process pointless because it could all be made way shorter with just a brokered convention forgoing the primary process all together

you got Governors and Senators who put their real job on hold and spend a year campaigning in a primary for what?

and yeah, it is true, the party does decide

if that is the case, then just scrap the entire Primary process and select leaders like they do in other countries

I don't agree we should scrap the primary process but if we never left the smoke-filled room days then the Eastern Establishment and progressive Republicans would probably still be around and the country would probably be in a better place, tbh.

 

[Iolo]

If I had to guess, I'd say Hillary will win NC and FL both by about 20 points, and Bernie will take MO, OH and IL by anywhere between 1-5 points.

I think that's very possible... but he still needs 20%+ landslides to win the nom with pledged delegates, not 1-5% margins.

 

[Macho Madness]

Addisu Demissie thinks Ohio is going to be much closer: https://twitter.com/asdem/status/709050294097866752

 

[Y2Kev]

Addisu Demissie thinks Ohio is going to be much closer: https://twitter.com/asdem/status/709050294097866752

Yeah, I mean, I don't think anyone thinks it is 20 points at this point except NBC!

 

[NeoXChaos]

Calchala ‏@Calchala 2m2 minutes ago
@ASDem Honestly think it’s the volatility in the amt of Indy voters allowed to vote in D primary. Sanders rarely up with actual D voters.

Addisu Demissie
‏@ASDem
@Calchala agree 100% with this

Addisu Demissie
‏@ASDem
@Smithy0364 Trust whomever you want. Just saying I know OH extremely well. I ran GOTV there for Obama. I’ll quit Twitter if she wins by 20.

.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Looks like that reporter was lying about Trump's campaign manager throwing her to the ground. https://youtu.be/6NoMPxomjiw

 

[Macho Madness]

.

Now he says he will quit Twitter if the margin is +20. Lmao.

 

[Iolo]

This article at the New York Times resonated with me: http://nyti.ms/1TWoet3

Deny Trump the nomination for the good of the party and the country. The short term electoral punishment will be worth it in the long run.

shout out to GAF here

That check has weakened with the decline of machines, bosses and smoke-filled rooms. But in many ways it remains very much in force — confronting would-be demagogues with complicated ballot requirements, insisting that a potential Coriolanus or a Sulla count delegates in Guam and South Dakota, asking men who aspire to awesome power to submit to the veto of state chairmen and local newspapers, the town meeting and the caucus hall.

 

[Plinko]

Looks like that reporter was lying about Trump's campaign manager throwing her to the ground. https://youtu.be/6NoMPxomjiw

How could you think you wouldn't be caught? How?

 

[sturgboski]

I liked Kasich's townhall yesterday where he made the joke that the media finally acknowledges he exists. It contrasted really well to the fact that throughout the date, whenever Kasich would be doing a rally, the news would cut out from there and instead play the Trump one going on at the same time.

I really wish Kasich had a shot. He seems the best of the bunch. I wouldnt be terrified if he was the nominee and beat the democrats in the fall. However, a Trump or Cruz in office...

Trump is such a pathological liar. I saw him with Chuck Todd stating how he doesnt incite, meanwhile clip after clip is of him saying he wishes it was back in the old days where protesters would be beaten, how he wants to now press charges in order to scare people who dont agree with him (which, last I checked, is not something punishable in a court of law...well until Trump rewrites the laws, like how he wants to dismantle the media for reporting negative items on him). The clip of his supporter cold clocking a man being taken out by cops and then stating "well that guy was being aggressive when he was hit, he was giving the other man the finger and getting in his face" which is clearly not correct. OR the fact that his supporters are the peaceful people and its the protesters who are violent when, on Friday night, every single piece of video shows a Trump supporter instigating.

Trump and his rhetoric and his fervent supporters seem to represent some of the worst in this country. I get it, people are upset, but come on. Trump's policies are attack anyone who is different and doesnt agree with us and I can make amazing deals because I am a great businessman (which, for all intents and purposes, is wrong as his net worth is based on how he feels during the day, if he took his money decades ago and just invested he would be way richer, also all his failed business ventures including a mortgage company right before the bubble burst). Your policy can not be "look at me I am a big tough guy and will get everyone to listen to me" like he stated about forcing the military to do whatever he felt like. What does that say about us as a country, that this man and his cult of personality is doing so well? I think one channel interviewed foreign reporters following this election year from China and some Soviet bloc countries stating that Trump is being used as an example for how terrible Democracy is.

Sorry, this weekend has been terrible for politics and needed to rant.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

I can't imagine how the GOP will have the guts to steal the nomination from Trump at the convention... People will die, lots of people.

I don't think they have the balls either unless the party leadership is really prepares to burn the party down to rebuild it.

I think a third-party candidacy or just endorsing Hillary will be much more likely.

Like I said, I'm looking forward to the Fox News endorsement of Hillary Clinton. It's gonna be a fun Youtube video.

Stopstopmypeniscanonlygetsoerect.gif

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

You have to give Trump's NeoNazi supporters some credit. From day one of his campaign, they saw this guy as a potential Hitler even when he was "just" disparaging black people and Mexicans and hadn't broken out ideas like sending goons to political rallies for Jewish candidates or arresting protesters. These guys know a fascist when they see one.

 

[Y2Kev]

Now he says he will quit Twitter if the margin is +20. Lmao.

If you get HIT BY LIGHTNING TODAY i will QUIT twitter!!!!

 

[sturgboski]

You have to give Trump's NeoNazi supporters some credit. From day one of his campaign, they saw this guy as a potential Hitler even when he was "just" disparaging black people and Mexicans and hadn't broken out ideas like sending goons to political rallies for Jewish candidates or arresting protesters. These guys know a fascist when they see one.

I am wondering if going to a Trump rally with a sign saying "Westboro Baptist Church Endorses Donald Trump" would be too subtle or greatly appreciated...

 

[Macho Madness]

Bernie will not take responsibility for supporters disrupting Trump: https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/709030010171084800

Which, I didn't think he should but some were hoping he would co-opt it.

 

[Slayven]

I don't know why he'd be down with whites.

IS that Long from Bloody Roar in your avatar?

If so. much respect

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I might think this article was written by Hillary Clinton if you didn't tell me otherwise:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/03/obama-doctrine-goldberg-inaction/473520/

 

[NeoXChaos]

Sahil Kapur ‏@sahilkapur 7m7 minutes ago
@ASDem CBS has +9. That sound more like it to you?

Addisu Demissie
‏@ASDem
@sahilkapur Much more. Sanders also dumped serious (trade) negatives on the air which could affect. But single digits, for sure.

Addisu Demissie ‏@ASDem 26m26 minutes ago
@stevesingiser @DemocratMachine This. Also, he has dumped a TON of negative ads in OH, along with IL.

Addisu Demissie ‏@ASDem 27m27 minutes ago
@Calchala even FL - Bernie has dumped millions in negative in there at the end. But I agree FL and NC are going to be pretty huge C wins.

.

 

[TheChocoboCadet]

Anybody else notice that "Cruz 27%" in the latest Ohio poll? It's probably just a weird outlier, but it's from March 9-11th. Wouldn't that be something if the rallies actually ended up turning people away from Trump towards Cruz as their anti-establishment pick there.

 

[Y2Kev]

IS that Long from Bloody Roar in your avatar?

If so. much respect

It's Citan from Xenogears, lol

 

[Wilsongt]

IS that Long from Bloody Roar in your avatar?

If so. much respect

Citan from Xenogears.

 

[AlphaDump]

Okay, but your facts also obscure some VERY necessary context:

-- Bernie did vote against DOMA. He did not profess to do so because of his love of LGBT individuals. He did so because of federalist reasons in his floor speech.

-- Hillary Clinton also expressed support for Civil Unions in 2000:



A little history:

-- Here's Bernie singing a pledge in 1982 supporting "traditional" marriage:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8FLYbegXp9JNENTR0pVelk3bHM/view

-- Here's Bernie saying in the 90s that he wouldn't support an LGBT nondiscrimination bill as mayor:



-- Here's Bernie in 2006 saying he was comfortable with "civil unions", not marriage equality. Video in the link saying it's a "state issue":

http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/...riage_equality_he_s_no_longtime_champion.html



-- Let's also not forget he said that Vermont shouldn't legalize gay marriage and was the last member of the VT caucus to support marriage equality:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/sanders-has-evolved-same-sex-marriage-too-n454081



Again, "what about Hillary?!" -- Hillary has HUGE blindspots here. But so does Bernie! Neither of these people have been great on gay rights until recently!

damn that is a well researched post.

 

[Plinko]

Anybody else notice that "Cruz 27%" in the latest Ohio poll? It's probably just a weird outlier, but it's from March 9-11th. Wouldn't that be something if the rallies actually ended up turning people away from Trump towards Cruz as their anti-establishment pick there.

Which poll is this? The latest one I saw this morning had Cruz at 19%.

 

[TheChocoboCadet]

Which poll is this? The latest one I saw this morning had Cruz at 19%.

YouGov poll. 538 has it as their most heavily weighted at the moment (it's the most recently conducted one)

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/03/12/poll-florida-ohio-illinois/

Also, Cruz is at 1c on PredictIt. Not endorsing such a venture, but thought I'd throw it out there

 

[Y2Kev]

Why is it that R polling could be so much better than D polling? Is it that independent effect isn't as great?

 

[Slayven]

It's Citan from Xenogears, lol

Citan from Xenogears.

Man they look so a like

 

[Makai]

I thought it was the guy from Atlantis

 

[pigeon]

Why is it that R polling could be so much better than D polling? Is it that independent effect isn't as great?

One thing to consider is that Republican primary voters are much more homogeneous than D primary voters. Weighting different minorities, considering their likeliness to respond to polling, etc. are all factors that make D harder.

 

[Macho Madness]

Why is it that R polling could be so much better than D polling? Is it that independent effect isn't as great?

Youth turnout and a heavily diverse electorate throws things off, I think. With R's, it's mostly middle-aged or older white people.

Michigan was so off, it seems, because they underestimated the youth turnout in the state.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Ben Bergmann ‏@bzbergmann 11m11 minutes ago
@ASDem @stevesingiser @DemocratMachine I thought he has never run a negative ad ever in his life

Addisu Demissie
‏@ASDem
@bzbergmann @stevesingiser @DemocratMachine ha, yeah. okay.

.

 

[Suikoguy]

Youth turnout and a heavily diverse electorate throws things off, I think. With R's, it's mostly middle-aged or older white people.

Michigan was so off, it seems, because they underestimated the youth turnout in the state.

Was it that or underestimating independents?

 

[Makai]

One thing to consider is that Republican primary voters are much more homogeneous than D primary voters. Weighting different minorities, considering their likeliness to respond to polling, etc. are all factors that make D harder.

Why do they even weigh demographics? I was taught that reduces the randomness of your sample.

 

[Macho Madness]

Was it that or underestimating independents?

It was both, probably. But the percentage of 18-29 and 65+ was identical in Michigan. That is quite unusual.

 

[pigeon]

Why do they even weigh demographics? I was taught that reduces the randomness of your sample.

It's a kind of adverse selection problem.

Basically, your random sample is actually a sample of people who are available at the time you call and willing to engage in a polling call when you call them. Those aren't independent variables, so just doing a straight random sample would result in overrepresenting some demos and underrepresenting others.

 

[Macho Madness]

Today in "Oh, Rubio"

https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status/708872249353359360

 

[RustyNails]

Guy who predicted Bern win in michigan has forecasts out for ST2

There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding Super Tuesday 2. With three states having fairly even odds between Bernie and Hillary in the betting markets, it is not immediately clear who will emerge victorious in Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio. Today I am posting this to essentially echo that sentiment of uncertainty, because these are three remarkably close races. Florida and North Carolina will go to Hillary on Tuesday unless something catastrophic happens to her campaign.

Illinois is, in my opinion, going to be the most interesting to watch. We know that politicians almost always get a bonus in their home state for obvious reasons, just as Bernie received in Vermont and Ted Cruz received in Texas. But what about Hillary? Where does she have the strongest ties? She grew up in Illinois, went to college and law school in Massachusetts and Connecticut, lived and served as First Lady in Arkansas, and was elected Senator for the state of New York. According to my calculations, she did get a bonus in Arkansas that can be attributed to her history with the state, but received no such bonus in Massachusetts. The question is, will she receive another “home state bonus” in the state of Illinois in addition to the bonus she already received in Arkansas? This is something that I genuinely don’t know, but if she does, I doubt it will be a significant number because of Bernie’s historical ties to Illinois. Furthermore, we are unable to even look to 2008 to make a better guess, because her most significant opponent was also from Illinois, Barack Obama.

 

[Gotchaye]

Why do they even weigh demographics? I was taught that reduces the randomness of your sample.

Probably because of concerns about response rates and similar.

 

[Macho Madness]

Watching the clip where Hillary knocks Sanders for attacking her on health care, it's pretty obvious to me she was saying "he attacks me on health care, and that ignores my record of trying to fix it" not literally "I don't know where he was!" like some think.

 

[pigeon]

Watching the clip where Hillary knocks Sanders for attacking her on health care, it's pretty obvious to me she was saying "he attacks me on health care, and that ignores my record of trying to fix it" not literally "I don't know where he was!" like some think.

Yeah, that was basically my reading of the line. Just another meaningless "gaffe" that has nothing to do with what was actually being said. Politics.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Yeah, that was basically my reading of the line. Just another meaningless "gaffe" that has nothing to do with what was actually being said. Politics.

My perception as well. This story is getting no traction in the media as far as I can see.

 

[Y2Kev]

Guy who predicted Bern win in michigan has forecasts out for ST2

reading more of his old projections he seems kinda...not good except for michigan. i think if that didn't happen, no one would be looking

 

[Bowdz]

I can easily see Sanders taking IL,OH, and MO and none of it really meaning anything provided Hillary takes FL and NC by double digits. The media will be all over it as a comeback story when in reality, Hillary will expand her delegate lead.

 

[Box of Kittens]

reading more of his old projections he seems kinda...not good except for michigan. i think if that didn't happen, no one would be looking

Yeah, people are overreacting to one data point. I guess the benefit of making wild predictions is that if you get one right people will hail you as a genius while ignoring all the ones you got wrong.

 

[Bowdz]

Yeah, people are overreacting to one data point. I guess the benefit of making wild predictions is that if you get one right people will hail you as a genius while ignoring all the ones you got wrong.

Financial analysts in a nutshell.

 

[Macho Madness]

The best part of political analysis fuckery is multiple articles on every main news site saying a different person will win in each one of them. That way, they can't be wrong.

 

[Y2Kev]

I can easily see Sanders taking IL,OH, and MO and none of it really meaning anything provided Hillary takes FL and NC by double digits. The media will be all over it as a comeback story when in reality, Hillary will expand her delegate lead.

If she gets up in the range of 275-300, this is really over. I mean I guess it is now, but whatever. Bernie will probably net what, like 60-70 delegates in April from the kuckususes and then those will be mostly wiped out basically by Maryland?

 

[Tesseract]

The best part of political analysis fuckery is multiple articles on every main news site saying a different person will win in each one of them. That way, they can't be wrong.

They're presumably different writers, nothing wrong with hedging your bets

 

[Ogrekiller]

If she gets up in the range of 275-300, this is really over. I mean I guess it is now, but whatever. Bernie will probably net what, like 60-70 delegates in April from the kuckususes and then those will be mostly wiped out basically by Maryland?

So what firewalls does Clinton have left?

Florida, NC, NY, Md?

 

[Tesseract]

I wouldn't be so sure about Florida

 

[eBay Huckster]

So what firewalls does Clinton have left?

Florida, NC, NY, Md?

florida, NC, mid-atlantic super tuesday