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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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B

blackaroni

Member
Bowdz said:
I can easily see Sanders taking IL,OH, and MO and none of it really meaning anything provided Hillary takes FL and NC by double digits. The media will be all over it as a comeback story when in reality, Hillary will expand her delegate lead.
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Yep, that's pretty much what I'm thinking too. I don't see her winning any of the open primaries and if she does, then it won't be by much.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Y2Kev said:
If she gets up in the range of 275-300, this is really over. I mean I guess it is now, but whatever. Bernie will probably net what, like 60-70 delegates in April from the kuckususes and then those will be mostly wiped out basically by Maryland?
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That would be correct. From everything after Arizona until New York in the middle of April, he'll be able to cut into her lead, whatever it is, by about 65 delegates. She'll then wipe out those gains, based on current polling, in Maryland.

Assuming we give Bernie a win in Illinois, Ohio and Missouri (and let's give him a 10 point win in each), with Hillary's margins in NC and FL, she'd net about 40-50 more delegates than he would in this hypothetical situation.

However, I'm not sure he wins Illinois, and I doubt Ohio would be a 10 point margin for either of them.
 
T

Third Strike

Member
I know Sanders isn't expected to win NC this week, but there was an article on the Charlotte Observer saying that many students in NC are having problems because of the voter I.D. law. There's already over 700 provisional ballots cast, and there is no guarantee that they will be counted. The highest concentration is found in the counties with large student bodies, like Wake, Durham, and Orange. I wonder if this will severely hurt Sanders in NC:

Voter ID law hinders some college students
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
I don't think Clinton has any firewalls after the 15th. Not in the way the deep south was. She'll likely win Maryland and NY favors her... after that, idunno what states I'd really bet on her winning.
 
T

T'Zariah

Banned
So let's assume the best case scenario happens and Clinton eels out a complete sweep of ST.

How do you think the Sanders campaign respond
 
D

dramatis

Member
Third Strike said:
I know Sanders isn't expected to win NC this week, but there was an article on the Charlotte Observer saying that many students in NC are having problems because of the voter I.D. law. There's already over 700 provisional ballots cast, and there is no guarantee that they will be counted. The highest concentration is found in the counties with large student bodies, like Wake, Durham, and Orange. I wonder if this will severely hurt Sanders in NC:

Voter ID law hinders some college students
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NY Times reported on that a few days ago. There is a court case against the new voter ID laws that's still ongoing. It's too early to be decided before the NC primary, but there's a chance it could be decided before November.

The 2000 election messed things up more than just Bush, for sure.
 
O

Ogrekiller

Member
T'Zariah said:
So let's assume the best case scenario happens and Clinton eels out a complete sweep of ST.

How do you think the Sanders campaign respond
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Fundraise and set the next big "must win" state despite knowing they can't catch up at all.

After winning Michigan and yet losing the delegate count it's pretty clear what the strategy is: move the goalposts.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Third Strike said:
I know Sanders isn't expected to win NC this week, but there was an article on the Charlotte Observer saying that many students in NC are having problems because of the voter I.D. law. There's already over 700 provisional ballots cast, and there is no guarantee that they will be counted. The highest concentration is found in the counties with large student bodies, like Wake, Durham, and Orange. I wonder if this will severely hurt Sanders in NC:

Voter ID law hinders some college students
Click to expand...
I don't care who it affects. Voter ID is garbage.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Harry EntenVerified account
‏@ForecasterEnten
Some math on Dem side for Tuesday. Assuming a tie in delegates in IL, MO, OH & Clinton +25 in NC/FL, her overall pledged lead climbs to ~300

Will Cubbison ‏@wccubbison 23m23 minutes ago
Will Cubbison Retweeted Harry Enten
Dem delegate rules + current demographic breakdowns + gerrymandering are very Clinton friendly in places like OH

Addisu Demissie ‏@ASDem 22m22 minutes ago
@wccubbison such a critical point that I fear is getting lost in the obsession over “winning states”
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.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
NeoXChaos said:
.
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Yup.

I don't see Bernie dropping until June tbh and provided he gives Hilldawg a full throated endorsement and helps to bring his supporters back into the fold for the general, that's fine with me. Just like Obama did in 2008, Hillary needs to give Bernie and his supporters space to cope in their own way so they won't feel as incensed about losing.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Macho Madness said:
Oh. We've officially gone there. Donald Trump is a mess:

https://youtu.be/7RsyJbYzceE
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It's just no good without Jeb.

Bowdz said:
Yup.

I don't see Bernie dropping until June tbh and provided he gives Hilldawg a full throated endorsement and helps to bring his supporters back into the fold for the general, that's fine with me. Just like Obama did in 2008, Hillary needs to give Bernie and his supporters space to cope in their own way so they won't feel as incensed about losing.
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I'm a little concerned the convention is so soon this year. But maybe it will give space between the general.
 
W

watershed

Banned
Is there any possibility or reason to hope states are going to get rid of their caucuses and switch to primaries any time soon? The whole caucus system is so undemocratic it aggravates me.
 
T

T'Zariah

Banned
Bowdz said:
Yup.

I don't see Bernie dropping until June tbh and provided he gives Hilldawg a full throated endorsement and helps to bring his supporters back into the fold for the general, that's fine with me. Just like Obama did in 2008, Hillary needs to give Bernie and his supporters space to cope in their own way so they won't feel as incensed about losing.
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That ship has sailed.

At least, online, it has.

Anecdotal, I know. But still.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
watershed said:
Is there any possibility or reason to hope states are going to get rid of their caucuses and switch to primaries any time soon? The whole caucus system is so undemocratic it aggravates me.
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The reason a lot of them do caucuses is that it encourages better ground game (so they're better positioned for the general election) and primaries cost too much.

So I don't know. Yes, they should.
 
I

Iolo

Member
T'Zariah said:
Agreed.

Though has anyone mentioned the possibility of Spring Break? Because when I was in school, most people went out of town to see their parents, vacation, etc.

Hopefully they had some absentee ballots
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Spring Break was mentioned as a likely depressor of turnout for Sanders in MI and we know how that turned out.
 
M

Mrs. Manky

Banned
Slayven said:
i believe it, Obama took his soul that night
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He deserved it. Trump had insulted Obama's birth, his education, his overall fitness for office. And President Barack Hussein Obama snatched his soul and his wig, and just made the man look like the buffoon he is.

And if Trump becomes the nominee, Obama will snatch that soul again.
 
P

Paskil

Member
The thing with provisional ballots is that they haven't been counted at the time the election announcement is made. In Wisconsin, they have until the end of Friday on election week to go to the clerks office to show their valid ID. A large majority don't bother because the election was already called.
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Wow at the poll with Sanders a few points ahead in Illinois. That was a really fast change from the one where she was up 37. Making a huge shift.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Ziltoidia 9 said:
Wow at the poll with Sanders a few points ahead in Illinois. That was a really fast change from the one where she was up 37. Making a huge shift.
Click to expand...

Are you comparing the same polling outfit?
 
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