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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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R

royalan

Member
The DNC needs to stop being so fucking nice.

There are more Hillary supporters in that room than Bernie's. Galvanize them to be louder.

I'll give it to Trump: him walking out into the stadium during Cruz's speech was probably the smartest thing he did that week.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
Fox318 said:
You know what though lets say she resigned right now.

There is absolutely no reason why DBS couldn't get a chief of staff type job or something in a Clinton White House after the election if she were to ever lose her house job. Nobody would care at that point.

Instead lets make a controversy over what should have been nothing.
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I never thought I would say this, but I actually agree with a JETS fan :p Yea this is exactly how most of the time these things are done. Clinton failed in this one no question about it. At that point no one is going to bat an eye. Tell her to back down, and fall on the sword. With a wink and a nod let her know she has a position if Clinton wins. So dumb how they handled this.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
gutter_trash said:
I'm shutting this off

stupid extremist Far-Left Lefties are handing over the White House to a Far-Riight authoritarian racist puppet of Putin (Trump)

as a Center-Center-Center-Left person, I hate the Far-Left as much as the Far-Right,
you always fuck things up
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What far-left ideal are they espousing,out of curiosity?

sangreal said:
Did he actually show up after endorsing Stein? Bernie should be ashamed
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No idea, but its not like the man ever had a single fuck to give.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
pigeon said:
No. This is dumb. Accusing your political opponent of being a Russian plant delegitimizes the issue.

The government should push it and the media should push it. Clinton should stay away from it.
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Bingo. If Russians did do it, NSA knows and will say as much. If they don't say anything by end of DNC, probably because Russians didn't do it.

PBY said:
Rosario Dawson: "if Trump wins, it's not our fault."
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If Clinton manages to lose to Trump, it won't be the tiny minority of Sanders voters not voting for Clinton that will have lost the election. Clinton's on track to keep more of the Sanders voters than Obama did for Clinton voters. (We'll see how the DNC goes)

Iolo said:
If polls are wildly variable this year, how is Nate's model at all useful?
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Because he's compensating for the polls being wild?

Black Mamba said:
Regarding 538, I'm sorry but I think Nate's model is horseshit. The swings are way too wild to make any sense. Especially since there's been nothing on the state polling level to indicate the big reversal in the NOWCAST.

So I looked into it and he's unskewing polls!? I don't mean putting weights on pollsters but actually adjusting the numbers. I was confused how he has Donald up in Pa and I looked and despite nearly every poll showing Hillary up (9 out of 10 polls), he adjusted them to 6 showing Trump up. A Clinton +8 is now Clinton +3. Clinton + 4 (from PPP) is now Trump +1.

What the fuck is this horseshit modeling? How can 9 out of 10 polls show Clinton with a decent lead (the avg is like +5) be Trump +1? Something he calls "trendline" which I assume he just believes because the trend nationally or something is one way that it means the numbers in the state are wrong? Which would be a stupid way of doing it but i won't comment without knowing exactly wtf that means.

All I know is it makes no sense and would explain why 538 is so bullish on Trump right now and everyone else like Upshot and Sam Wang are not in their modelling.

Honestly, and I don't say this because I support the numbers that are better for Hillary, but I think 538 is trying to create a model so amazing that is sucks. Stay simpler, IMO. Their model isn't good right now, IMO. I would basically ignore it and look at Upshot.
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It's the same model used in 2012; the idea is fairly straightforward - polls tend to be precise if not accurate. Calculate a poll's precision and compare to actuals, and adjust accordingly. I'm worried that folks are discounting Silver's model because it isn't telling them what they want to hear. (Also, he is trolling people with the now-cast in order to have some fun, and see who actually reads what the algorithm is and understands what he's doing). Nate's model is dependent on pollsters having a high order of precision, though.

The Now-Cast having Trump only at a 57% chance to win at what is probably the single highest point of the race for him (post RNC convention, before DNC convention, right after DNC scandal and after Clinton gets hit for FBI stuff) is...actually pretty heartening.

Tamanon said:
The remainder aren't even socialists. It's amazing how almost nobody is moving to Stein, and instead going to Trump or Johnson. It just shows that politics is about personality and not policy.
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I wish people would get this. We got spoiled by Obama having both.

balladofwindfishes said:
The difference in Wang's and Silver's attitudes today is something else.

One is calm and collected, sharing data and reasons why nobody should really panic and explaining why his model isn't really changing, and Silver has Trump winning and going crazy on Twitter.

Did the Primaries really shake 538 that much?
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No; the models are modeling two different things. Wang's model is based on what will happen in November, Silver's model that everyone is freaking out about is based on having the election today. You know, when Trump is at his peak and Clinton is at her worst point.

hawk2025 said:
Aren't you guys seeing red here over nothing?

It seems like he's using "friends" facetiously here, no?
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confirmation bias is a thing. People want to believe Trump is that dumb.

Plinko said:
Looks to me like they unite where it counts.
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Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.
 
C

Cerium

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Bernie has lost control of his revolution
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He wanted the Democratic party to open its doors to these deranged nutjobs.

Now he's all

18682-arrested-development-ive-made-a-huge-mistake.gif
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
Slayven said:
Reassure me, cause right now I am Diablosing
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The vast, vast majority of Bernie supporters are throwing their support to Hillary. These are the die hards whose votes are negligible in the grand scheme of things. Americans have the political memory of ants and any "bad optics" now will be forgotten in two weeks time, just like Trump's disastrous convention will be forgotten.

A bunch of people yelling at the convention is not going to change the demographics that this election is bound by.
 
C

CrazyDude

Member
sphagnum said:
The vast, vast majority of Bernie supporters are throwing their support to Hillary. These are the die hards whose votes are negligible in the grand scheme of things. Americans have the political memory of ants and any "bad optics" now will be forgotten in two weeks time, just like Trump's disastrous convention will be forgotten.

A bunch of people yelling at the convention is not going to change the demographics that this election is bound by.
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That might be true but this is going to depress voter turn out, so it won't matter what demographic have to say.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
sphagnum said:
The vast, vast majority of Bernie supporters are throwing their support to Hillary. These are the die hards whose votes are negligible in the grand scheme of things. Americans have the political memory of ants and any "bad optics" now will be forgotten in two weeks time, just like Trump's disastrous convention will be forgotten.

A bunch of people yelling at the convention is not going to change the demographics that this election is bound by.
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A unruly convention is not good, no matter what. Drowning out speakers is not good.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
I will say this. By the time we get to the primetime slots. They need to start regulating shit to make sure they don't get any crazy outbursts
 
R

royalan

Member
PBY said:
The more open your primaries, the more likely this is to occur
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Yep.

I expect both parties to make it harder for outsider candidates going forward.

There's a big difference between being critical of political parties and structure, and being a Bern it All Down type.
 
F

Fox318

Member
PBY said:
The more open your primaries, the more likely this is to occur
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Ehh I wouldn't say that.

They should have encouraged more legit candidates to run.

Instead everyone was clearing a path for Hillary and anyone with a pulse was gonna get a huge boost just by being the other candidate.

Aaron Strife said:
Yes because they'd clearly be on board with canvassing for Hillary.
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At the very least you want them to canvass to keep seats blue.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
PBY said:
The more open your primaries, the more likely this is to occur
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The only way I think you avoid this is by not inviting these people in the first place and that just wouldn't go over well. They had their tantrum but now you do not let them influence and ruin the rest of the convention with this.

You bring in alternates and you pack that place with Hillary supporters, and make sure they are loud.
 
E

Effect

Member
Fox318 said:
Those are the same people they need to lead door to door and groundwork efforts in other districts.

You'd be pissing off a ton of people for 4 days of bad tv.

Lets see how Bernie does tonight.
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These people right now will never do that. Screw them. They're reflecting bad on the Sanders supporters that are home. These assholes don't give a damn about anyone but themselves.
 
C

Cerium

Member
PBY said:
The more open your primaries, the more likely this is to occur
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I've said all along it was a mistake to welcome the Bernie bros into the party.

Now we've got our very own Tea Party on the left.

We have no one to blame but ourselves. And Bernie Sanders.

For me, vindication is a bitter pill.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Yes because they'd clearly be on board with canvassing for Hillary.
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The election aint just about hillary. Whole lotta other folk running. You might not have luck with the main ticket, but there is the chance that they could be of some use in others.

Would venture a guess that they're still more likely to help the party than republicans /shrug

either way, cant see anything good from conflating BoB's with the main bern (now hills) vote. Is as ignorant as thinking that pumas were a significant part of the base.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Sanders created this when he went negative.

It went from "I like Sander's message better" to "I hate Hillary, she and the DNC are corrupt".
 
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