So I learned in 2004 not to get carried away with wishful thinking, but there are a few big things that are going give me a lot of comfort no matter what:
1) Ground game. Trump is ignoring it, while Hills already got the chance to show hers off a bit in the primaries (see:VA, NC, FL, OH, PA). We saw this work in 2012, and it won't be anywhere close this time. The turnout machine, plus the current state of the electoral college....
2) Rally power. Trump and Pence have a pitiful lack of surrogates and no allies. Democrats can offer dynamic pairing with Hills, Barack, Bill, Joe, Bernie, and Tim. Get people's attention and allows good matching between messengers and battlegrounds.
3) Demographics. I worry this approaches unskewing if one goes too far with it, but nonetheless. Trump's weaknesses with women, grads, and Hispanics are baked in. It's really hard to picture any plausible white men turnout that beats that.
4) Likely voter screens. Probably because of Trump losing grads, but the way these are favoring Hillary is pretty amazing.
I mean, I hate the fact that Trump is polling over 30%. And I don't want to unskew. But...we seriously have this shit. Day one and we already have 3 speakers who got the party more hyped than anyone at the RNC.
Prediction: Next week the GOP will be in full panic mode. Every man starts to run from Trump. Public flirting with Johnson endorsements.