Ziltoidia 9
Member
When I see the "wrong direction" numbers I always think some dems say it is also because of the blockage in congress.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
- Thread starter ampere
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BlastProcessing
Member
Yup. If I was asked I would say "wrong track" because of how broken the Congress is right now. Hell, the fact that Trump is the GOP nominee is enough for me to say that this country needs to get it's shit together.
User 463088
Banned
Very true. There are too many variables with that number. Who knows why someone would say the country is headed in the wrong direction. There are too many people whose lives are cut short because of gun violence. So, that would lead me to say, ya, we're going in the wrong direction because we won't do common sense, basic things to stop people from being murdered. Someone else might think we're going in the wrong direction because we don't mandate non-GMO peaches for everyone.
It's such a nothing metric to build a campaign around, because its not like a policy position. Unless, of course, your only policy is to make America great again, and you never explicitly quantify what "great" means....
Fam! I think I cracked his campaign strategy. Someone Tweet Daddy Mook!
nature boy
Member
About the Suffolk poll: never doubt Plouffe, PA seems to be an impossible task for Trump.
Felix Lighter
Member
I would have to seriously consider my answer to that question if asked. On one hand, progressive policies are slowly but surely working their way into the system. On the other hand, the Republican party just nominated Donald Trump. The majority Republican Senate and especially the House are so dysfunctional that soon they may simply be incapable of governing at all. So what is happening is mostly positive but with the legislative branch in its current state, so little can be done at all beyond executive orders and judicial rulings on existing legislature. So much of the advancement recently is a result of some shittiy Republican led State Legislature passing some unconstitutional law in their state.
It's not really a useful metric anyways as people could be disagreeing with Republican leadership in the Senate/House roadblocking important bills like nominating Justices or Zika virus.
GutsOfThor
Member
Guys... PA would already be the nail in the coffin.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
And PA/VA makes it a certainty
And PA/VA/NM/NV is a W
Remember this when things get rocky. Electoral College+Demographics.
These are the battleground states this year? I ask because I'm shocked that New Mexico is on there. I was positive that we were solid blue this time around.
whyamihere
Banned
Weird -- they pulled all money from the state. So did Hillary.
No, I think he didn't have any money going into the state. Hillary just pulled out her ads.
IggyChooChoo
Member
Weren't the Keeping it 1600 guys talking about this last week, how the "right track" number hasn't been above water since like JFK?
thestopsign
Member
It's there just to round out their swing states really.
cartoon_soldier
Member
CO is done for yea. Trump can go there for sure. He can also go to NY and CA if he wants.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
A lot of those people are liberals and don't have the same reasons for believing we're on the wrong track Donald.
I think I saw stuff about 59% of non-whites and 51% of liberals believe we're on the wrong track. They're not voting for you. And in fact you may be the reason they think we're not doing well!
User 85168
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Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Anecdotal evidence:
The Bernie folks on my feed have sorted into a few camps:
1) Voting for Hillary but complaining about the tone of Hillary supporters
2) Voting for Johnson/Stein (very few and in non-swing states)
3) Not talking about politics
If that's at all indicative (and I am sure it isn't) then the Bernie folks have mostly come around.
Looking forward:
If Trump's clearly losing in late October, what crazy ploy might he try that nobody who actually has or wants to keep a political career would try? I have this notion that some completely unprovable crazy claim is going to get made that's so outrageous that it might stick.
The Bernie folks on my feed have sorted into a few camps:
1) Voting for Hillary but complaining about the tone of Hillary supporters
2) Voting for Johnson/Stein (very few and in non-swing states)
3) Not talking about politics
If that's at all indicative (and I am sure it isn't) then the Bernie folks have mostly come around.
Looking forward:
If Trump's clearly losing in late October, what crazy ploy might he try that nobody who actually has or wants to keep a political career would try? I have this notion that some completely unprovable crazy claim is going to get made that's so outrageous that it might stick.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Cohn has the demographic breakdown and its slightly favorable to the Dems but not much:
whyamihere
Banned
Maximum fuckery potentially incoming in Utah:
https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/758720010411991040
https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/758720010411991040
bangbang i'm a timpani
Banned
thats hilaroius
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
Good to Great speeches from:
Michelle Obama
Elizabeth Warren
Corey Booker
Bernie Sanders
Tim Kaine
Joe Biden
Michael Bloomberg
Barack Obama
Probably others I have forgotten and/or missed. It's been a great conference so far, I'm 95% convinced I'm gonna vote. I don't know who else is speaking tonight, but Chelsea Clinton just needs to have a good intro and Hillary Clinton needs to take us home.
Michelle Obama
Elizabeth Warren
Corey Booker
Bernie Sanders
Tim Kaine
Joe Biden
Michael Bloomberg
Barack Obama
Probably others I have forgotten and/or missed. It's been a great conference so far, I'm 95% convinced I'm gonna vote. I don't know who else is speaking tonight, but Chelsea Clinton just needs to have a good intro and Hillary Clinton needs to take us home.
utah confirmed for hildawg state
Honestly I'm surprised the right isn't pushing harder to get rid of the electoral college. I agree, now that we're doing direct elections for everything else it doesn't make much sense to retain it, but it seems like the move to cities and the fact that those areas tend to be much more liberal, along with racial demographics changes, mean that the electoral college is only going to work more in the Democrat's favor. I guess the argument against it is that the electoral college gives some smaller Republican states a bit more leverage and the demographics point to the Dems taking over no matter what at this point so they're afraid of a straight vote, but...
Holy shit, god is real.
You pretty much are.
270towin thinks even Minnesota is less safe than New Mexico this election. And Minnesota voted for Mondale.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
All those low population Plains states lose in such a scenario.
What is the libertarian color? Could Utah go Polka Dot? I feel Polka Dot is the libertarian color
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
Long story short, I am registered in FL, but can choose to be registered in CA, TX, FL, PA, VA, MD, or DC. I figured FL is the most important swing state and where my vote will "count" the most. Correct assumption, or make the change to another one?
I'll believe it when I see it. Considering I heard the same about Jeb and nothing has come of that yet, I'm not sure how true this will turn out to be either.
It would be glorious though.
Yellow
captscience
Member
Ha! Just listened to the West Wing Weekly podcast with 538 this morning that talked about the asymmetrical language in that poll question. Both CJ and Nate's justification for the poorly worded question is that that's how it's always been, therefore it's important to keep it that way for historical reference.
I wonder what percentage of people answer wrong track simply due to worry over the rise of Trump.
Fenderputty
Banned
Hah hah, yeah, watched it and was like "yes!".
bigwinnerx
Member
All the polls stuff aside, I'd say PA is the true firewall.
I also feel like PA is kinda like VA in the sense of the metro areas will clean up the rural areas of the state well. Whatever lead Trump could hope to build in that middle bit of the state, there are still a number of old style Biden Dems (like me) who wouldn't ever vote for him and then you have the urban areas where Hills will be up big time.
(Note, I'm registered in VA, but, my family is still up around Reading.)
They could throw in a follow up to find that out, I don't see why they don't.
Beer Monkey
Member
I'm seeing the same kind of thing here. Also:
4) Ranting about politics but no longer talking about who they are voting for
When somebody has been bragging for months that they'll write in Bernie and if Trump wins it's not their fault, and then they stop saying anything about voting, they've changed their position to a more pragmatic one.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Clinton's going to win VA and PA. Stay with Florida and call everyone you know.
ISWThunder
Member
And he wears lucky underwear!
Pretty cool that you have a big list of states you can be registered in. What's the story? As for your question, I'd either stay in Florida or register in Pennsylvania. But if the +9 poll in PA is indicative of how it'll play out in November, stay in FL.
They should get red, and the GOP should be reassigned as the white party, since it pretty much is already.
/rimshot
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
In the military?
FL is probably your best bet followed by PA. I don't see a scenario where VA is all that close.
Personally I'd take part in the purpling of Texas.
nature boy
Member
Pick the state where you can more influence other people.
I want to move to Austin and make Texas blue
It probably needs another decade for that, plus it's hot as balls down there.
Pretty much every Trump victory map goes through Florida. Blue Florida crushes him. Stay registered for Florida.
Basileus777
Member
Hillary winning it because of Johnson would be even more bizarre. You'd need some crazy 34-33-33 split for that to happen.
Yup. Bigger surprise than Indiana in 2008.
If anything were to happen it would be Johnson splitting enough of the vote for Clinton to take it. I think that's more likely.
Basileus777
Member
Johnson may actually have a higher ceiling than Hillary. Is she really going to get a % higher than the mid to low-30s in Utah? Hillary winning would be incredibly unlikely even with a 3rd party splitting the vote.
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