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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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J

jiggle

Member
shinra-bansho said:
90


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The difference in flags distribution saids it all really




shinra-bansho said:
APTOPIX-DEM-2016-Conv_CLINTON_KAINE.jpg

90
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Dubbedinenglish said:
sub-buzz-22868-1469801470-1.jpg
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I can't get over how all the photos with the giant balls look so pleasing
The lighting and colors are just immaculate
Almost like photoshopped studio photos
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Oblivion said:
Btw, what's all this talk about states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota trending red? Is it cause Obama won those states by smaller margins in 2012 than he did in 2008? I figured that was just due to people not being as excited to vote for him the second time around.
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Pennsylvania has been moving away from the Dems at a glacial pace.

Michigan and Wisconsin are stalwartly Democratic in Presidential elections. But are also moving against the national average towards the R's over the last 20 years of Presidential elections.

The nations demographic changes have been a boon to Democrats, but it will make certain states harder to win over time. If we want to have Democratic presidents over the next 20-30 years the party will need to start moving into states that have been traditionally not blue territory because we will start seeing stalwart Union states moving Republican over time. Georgia, NC, AZ seem to make the most sense (AZ in this graph is moving Red, but that has reversed trend over the last 8 years)

wasserman-pennsylvannia-1.png
 
H

Hindl

Member
StoOgE said:
Pennsylvania has been moving away from the Dems at a glacial pace.

Michigan and Wisconsin are stalwartly Democratic in Presidential elections. But are also moving against the national average towards the R's over the last 20 years of Presidential elections.

wasserman-pennsylvannia-1.png
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So how do you reconcile the movement of PA with this? Just more GOP voters moving into the areas with high population growth? Or something else that I'm not thinking of?

gcubed said:
this greatly disagrees with you -

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population growth is around Philly with a dark spot in the middle, which consists of State College, along with a bit in Pitt area.

Population losses are everywhere that is typically red
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B

Basileus777

Member
Hindl said:
So how do you reconcile the movement of PA with this? Just more GOP voters moving into the areas with high population growth? Or something else that I'm not thinking of?
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The difference in years. I don't know what the time range of the PA population map is, but I imagine it's not since 1992.

I'd be interested in seeing a map showing changes in state leanings since 2004.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
New Stuff coming out on Ailes. He is the news media equivalent of Bill Cosby, holy shit.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/07/fmr-fox-booker-harassed-by-ailes-for-20-years.html

Luhn put on the black garter and stockings she said Ailes had instructed her to buy; he called it her uniform. Ailes sat on a couch. “Go over there. Dance for me,” she recalled him saying. She hesitated. “Laurie, if you're gonna be my girl, my eyes and ears, if you are going to be someone I can depend on in Washington, my spy, come on, dance for me,” he said, according to her account. When she started dancing, Ailes got out a video camera. Luhn didn’t want to be filmed, she said, but Ailes was insistent: “I am gonna need you to do better than that.”

When she had finished dancing, Ailes told her to get down on her knees in front of him, she said, and put his hands on her temples. As she recalled, he began speaking to her slowly and authoritatively, as if he were some kind of Svengali: “Tell me you will do what I tell you to do, when I tell you to do it. At any time, at any place when I call. No matter where I call you, no matter where you are. Do you understand? You will follow orders. If I tell you to put on your uniform, what are you gonna do, Laurie? WHAT ARE YOU GONNA DO, LAURIE?” Then, she recalled, his voice dropped to a whisper: “What are you, Laurie? Are you Roger's whore? Are you Roger's spy? Come over here.” Ailes asked her to perform oral sex, she said.

Later, Ailes showed her the footage of her dancing. She asked him what he intended to do with it and, she says, he replied, “I am going to put it in a safe-deposit box just so we understand each other.”

After that, Luhn said, she regularly met Ailes in hotels for sexual encounters. He asked her to buy a boom box so she could bring music to dance to. Ailes always left cash for her. A couple of times, while he was advising French politician Jacques Chirac, he gave her francs. “I remember I had to go exchange the money,” Luhn said.
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There is so much more. Holy fuck this man is a fucking rapist.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Hindl said:
So how do you reconcile the movement of PA with this? Just more GOP voters moving into the areas with high population growth? Or something else that I'm not thinking of?
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It's not that Pennselvania is flying to the Republicans, and will likely be a stalwart Democratic state for the next 2-3 cycles.

It's the middle of the state primarily where there is a reliance on coal and fracking for jobs. Pittsburgh is also trending more Red than Philly which is trending heavily Blue. Pittsburgh is a less liberal metro area than it had been (though still liberal).

Edit:

Should throw out there that I imagine some of those population shifts from the rural areas into the Burbs probably explain why Pittsburgh is trending less liberal than it had.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
New York Times - Clinton’s Convention Was Made for TV. Trump’s Was Made for Twitter
It might have been a less notable contrast if Mr. Trump’s show had not been such a break from the tightly scripted performance that has come to typify these conventions. In Cleveland, an important endorser, Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa, started speaking after the broadcast networks had already moved on to local news (Republican Party officials argued Thursday that they should have shown her instead); Mr. Trump called in to “The O’Reilly Factor” while Patricia Smith was speaking emotionally onstage about her son’s death in the Benghazi attack; and one night’s program ended prematurely, leaving precious prime-time minutes unused.

Asked about the differences, Mr. Trump said he could not speak to them with much specificity, because “I didn’t produce our show — I just showed up for the final speech on Thursday.” (He acknowledged that he made other appearances while the convention was going on, including on O’Reilly, but said they weren’t a distraction from the convention because they were unannounced and “nobody even knew” he would be appearing.)
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Haha, Trump distancing himself from the garbage production value of the RNC.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
B-Dubs said:
A huge part of why it's red is the gender gap, as more and more women have moved to the state it's trended more and more blue. Once it reaches parity there's a good chance it'll flip.
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And has sent Democrats to the Senate.

It's also a tiny fucking state population wise, so a small swing in demographics could shift the state.

Not that it's a particularly noteworthy state for EC means, but hey. 2 Senators is 2 Senators.

Alaska is a lot like Maine politically, so it makes some sense.
 
T

thcsquad

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Yeah, even if you're "more ideologically aligned" with Stein I think the people voting for her should actually ask what she would do with her presidency. What would her cabinet and foreign policy look like? What is she going to do with Congress when all of them are in a different party than her, so who are her allies and what kind of legislation can she get passed. She's never been elected to anything higher than a city council so what kind of experience does she offer for leadership and working with the huge nationwide problems? At least Johnson has been a governor and could probably work okay with Republicans on some stuff and has an idea of what being a leader is like.

Of course, no one voting for Stein wants to answer these questions because they aren't interested in Stein being president, just how special voting for her makes them feel.
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Although if I were computing my views on various issues (like iSideWith), I'm sure I'm much closer to Stein than Johnson, but if my choices were the two of them and Trump I would pick Johnson. His terrible ideas would generally have to go through Congress. I feel like Stein might actually be able to do her GMO moratorium through the FDA that she populates with her crazy friends.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
The Houston Chronicle has taken the somewhat unusual move of making an endorsement this early in the race. It's one of the odder endorsements I've ever read, and I suspect we'll see more of this type as we approach Election Day.

(And for reference, they endorsed Romney four years ago.)

These are unsettling times that require a steady hand: That's not Donald Trump.

I know that newspaper endorsements aren't worth much, but I'd still like to know how lopsided the endorsement count is going to be this year.

=====

Also:

@llerer:
SCOOP: Bill Clinton brought a large blue convention balloon to Charlotte, per his aide.
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D'aww...

29-bill-hillary-clinton-balloons-06.w529.h352.jpg
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D

DataStream

Member
StoOgE said:
It's not that Pennselvania is flying to the Republicans, and will likely be a stalwart Democratic state for the next 2-3 cycles.

It's the middle of the state primarily where there is a reliance on coal and fracking for jobs. Pittsburgh is also trending more Red than Philly which is trending heavily Blue. Pittsburgh is a less liberal metro area than it had been (though still liberal).

Edit:

Should throw out there that I imagine some of those population shifts from the rural areas into the Burbs probably explain why Pittsburgh is trending less liberal than it had.
Click to expand...

I think Pittsburgh will end up trending back bluewards pretty quickly. The traditional blue collar population has definitely felt some negative effects, but many tech firms are opening up there given the CMU connection and there are more young hipsters moving into the city as its always had a pretty great art scene (which is becoming more mainstream as opposed to underground).
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
I went to graduate school in Alaska, and it reminds me on some level of Vermont. It's got a socialized system that divides a portion of oil revenues to everyone equally, so people aren't totally averse to those sorts of programs, and even the liberals are pro-gun there.

I don't know if VT has as many evangelicals (from a proportionality standpoint) in the demographic makeup of the state as AK, though.
 
T

thcsquad

Member
B-Dubs said:
A huge part of why it's red is the gender gap, as more and more women have moved to the state it's trended more and more blue. Once it reaches parity there's a good chance it'll flip.
Click to expand...

That's actually really interesting. So right now it's a weird mix of Pacific NW hippie-types and oil riggers, but long-term it's going to trend more like Washington and Oregon?

I'm curious why Idaho isn't more like that. My hippie aunt and uncle are thinking of moving to Boise, and they mainly like it because it's liberal. Clearly it doesn't have an outsized influence on the rest of the state, but I'm a bit surprised.
 
N

NetMapel

Guilty White Male Mods Gave Me This Tag
What the heck is Trump babbling about? I don't understand what's going on. I want to chant "we want substance" at a Trump rally.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Donald Trump just incited his supporters to violence, to go after the protesters after the rally.

And that's not even the craziest thing from the past 10 minutes.
 
X

Xis

Member
Qwerty710710 said:
I see Texas going blue within the next 20 years at least probably even sooner. The influx of Hispanic voters will turn it blue.
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The two parties we have are going to massively change before then. The Republican party is collapsing; it will eventually rebuild as something else. Perhaps the next incarnation will appeal more to minorities.
 
O

Ophelion

Member
Teggy said:
Candace SmithVerified account
‏@CandaceSmith_
"Oh and by the way, so the Nielsen ratings just came out; these are for television, much more important than polls." -Donald Trump

lolololololololol
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Trump aiming to be the most watched failure in America.
 
G

Got the Shakes

Member
Now he's saying that the only reason that police spoke at the DNC last night was because he was complaining that they didn't have any police the first 3 days. Da fuck?
 
Amibguous Cad

Amibguous Cad

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Yeah, even if you're "more ideologically aligned" with Stein I think the people voting for her should actually ask what she would do with her presidency. What would her cabinet and foreign policy look like? What is she going to do with Congress when all of them are in a different party than her, so who are her allies and what kind of legislation can she get passed. She's never been elected to anything higher than a city council so what kind of experience does she offer for leadership and working with the huge nationwide problems? At least Johnson has been a governor and could probably work okay with Republicans on some stuff and has an idea of what being a leader is like.

Of course, no one voting for Stein wants to answer these questions because they aren't interested in Stein being president, just how special voting for her makes them feel.
Click to expand...

That's why you should vote Johnson! Only one in the race with executive experience!

...In all seriousness walking away from the table from a centrist is the only leverage the far left has in electoral politics, and I can't shake the suspicion that pledging to remove it from consideration is something like unilateral disarmament. It's not about purity, it's about getting results eight, twenty years down the road.

Republicans get this, which is why their far right wing has more clout in the party. For all the excoriation of Nader voters post-2000, there's been no left-wing third party candidacy as successful as Perot or Buchanan. The margin of victory in Florida was 500 votes; any number of things, most notably improved turnout could have swayed it one way or the other, but Perot really did sink Bush's bid for re-election, and the Republicans were much less nasty to his supporters than dems are to the Bernie or Busters. And now that the party has offered up a candidate that's unacceptable to conservative ideologues, business interests, and neoconservatives, there's a horde of NeverTrumpers that are willing to sacrifice a single election to tell the party that their Jacksonian wing can die in a fire, even if it means electing someone as loathsome as Clinton. Romney might endorse Johnson FFS. And like, this election is the Republican's to lose; it's a tossup on the fundamentals, but the Democrats decided to nominate someone with worse favorability ratings than Walter Mondale or Barry goddamn Goldwater. But if Clinton does get elected, the Republicans are going to put the blame squarely where it belongs: on a nominee that was unacceptable to wide swathes of the electorate. One can hope that the Republicans won't make the same mistake again. And that the Democrats won't, either.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Qwerty710710 said:
I see Texas going blue within the next 20 years at least probably even sooner. The influx of Hispanic voters will turn it blue.
Click to expand...

Texas is headed there very slowly. When I was in college, Austin was the only "liberal" city in Texas. Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and El Paso are now stallwartly Democratic, as is the Valley.

The biggest hurdles to Texas turning blue are:

1) Texas colleges are dominated by conservatives outside of UT Austin and UT Dallas, and I suppose U of H. A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor, SMU, TCU are very conservative universities. Texas State is more liberal, but not extremely liberal.

2) Texas B-tier cities (Waco, Ft. Worth, Katy, Round Rock, everything in Dallas that isn't Dallas) are very conservative, as are all of the burbs around the major cities. Urban renewal is just starting to hit the non-Austin major metro areas.. they are about 10-15 years behind the other major cities that saw a renewal.

3) Hispanics in Texas don't really participate even at the same % as they do on a national level. Castro got good participation in San Antonio.

4) The State Dem party is a fucking shit show of insider politics and cronyism that I cannot fucking stomach. Some friends and I attempted to get involved after the 08 primaries ended, and a bunch of mid 20s somethings with data analytics skills were basically told that we could help best by pounding the pavement and registering voters. Fund Raising, Data Driven systems, smart targeting of races for pick-ups and recruitment of candidates is fucking awful (until the last two cycles, they would basically grab moderate Republicans to switch parties and run as Dems - or bring in people who could self fund because they suck at fundraising).

The biggest boon to Texas right now are transplants from Cali and New York who have moved to the large cities and of course the increase in hispanic and African American populations.
 
D

Dr.Parity

Banned
Amibguous Cad said:
That's why you should vote Johnson! Only one in the race with executive experience!

...In all seriousness walking away from the table from a centrist is the only leverage the far left has in electoral politics, and I can't shake the suspicion that pledging to remove it from consideration is something like unilateral disarmament. It's not about purity, it's about getting results eight, twenty years down the road.

Republicans get this, which is why their far right wing has more clout in the party. For all the excoriation of Nader voters post-2000, there's been no left-wing third party candidacy as successful as Perot or Buchanan. The margin of victory in Florida was 500 votes; any number of things, most notably improved turnout could have swayed it one way or the other, but Perot really did sink Bush's bid for re-election, and the Republicans were much less nasty to his supporters than dems are to the Bernie or Busters. And now that the party has offered up a candidate that's unacceptable to conservative ideologues, business interests, and neoconservatives, there's a horde of NeverTrumpers that are willing to sacrifice a single election to tell the party that their Jacksonian wing can die in a fire, even if it means electing someone as loathsome as Clinton. Romney might endorse Johnson FFS. And like, this election is the Republican's to lose; it's a tossup on the fundamentals, but the Democrats decided to nominate someone with worse favorability ratings than Walter Mondale or Barry goddamn Goldwater. But if Clinton does get elected, the Republicans are going to put the blame squarely where it belongs: on a nominee that was unacceptable to wide swathes of the electorate. One can hope that the Republicans won't make the same mistake again. And that the Democrats won't, either.
Click to expand...

you understand that the far right is the reason the party has destroyed itself and elected Trump in the first place

yet you wish to have the Democrats cater to the same type of extreme wing which will work out fine for them because...?
 
G

Got the Shakes

Member
"I think I have the best temperament of anyone who has ever run for president" - Donald Trump 5:12 pm eastern time 7/29/16

I just actually watched him say this on tv with a straight face.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
thcsquad said:
That's actually really interesting. So right now it's a weird mix of Pacific NW hippie-types and oil riggers, but long-term it's going to trend more like Washington and Oregon?

I'm curious why Idaho isn't more like that. My hippie aunt and uncle are thinking of moving to Boise, and they mainly like it because it's liberal. Clearly it doesn't have an outsized influence on the rest of the state, but I'm a bit surprised.
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Boise is a largeish portion of the population (200k I think) but that's still only like fifteen percent of the population, and I don't think Boise is that liberal, only relative to the rest of the state. I think Idaho has the second largest number of Mormons and it's generally a very religious state. Additionally, gun culture is a huge thing here and since it's actually a pretty low state for per-capita gun violence most people here are pretty vehemently against any gun culture. Sun Valley might have a lot of Hollywood Liberal types, since it's pretty popular to own a vacation home there, and Moscow is pretty liberal for the state because of the university and it's proximity to Washington, but even in Moscow I know pleeeeenty of super conservative people who've come here to study Ag or Business.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
B-Dubs said:
If it's the Russians then Trump is going to be in it deep. He should have ditched Manafort instead of Lewandowski.
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It's the Russians. It's very clearly the Russians.

There is no way it's anything more than a cursory statement this early though.
 
T

thebloo

Member
Got the Shakes said:
"I think I have the best temperament of anyone who has ever run for president" - Donald Trump 5:12 pm eastern time 7/29/16

I just actually watched him say this on tv with a straight face.
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"I have the best <insert quality > ever. You wouldn't understand it."
Last week he also said "name-calling is shameful". It was in regards to DNC hack, but it's still hypocritical.
 
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