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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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Btw, what's all this talk about states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota trending red? Is it cause Obama won those states by smaller margins in 2012 than he did in 2008? I figured that was just due to people not being as excited to vote for him the second time around.
Minnesota is especially weird because it and Massachusetts have been the most reliably blue states since the Civil Rights Act was passed.
 
It isn't arrogance to recognize that people don't know what the case was about, or what the holding was. Neither is it arrogance to believe that it was correct and defend it's correctness. If that were truly your position, I don't see how you could tolerate participating in this thread, where basically everyone presents their beliefs as correct, even though there are plenty of people smarter than them who believe otherwise.

I agree with you on your point regarding what CU actually held, I don't think it's arrogant to explain that to people. A lot of folks are confused by that.

Doesn't make the decision "correct." I don't even know "correct" means in the context of a 5-4 SCOTUS decision. The less arrogant way to put it is that you agree with the majority. There are very few objective right or wrong answers in legal interpretation.

I get what you're saying though, I'm just nitpicking your language to avoid writing a memo at work.
 

Teggy

Member
If a lot of people watched Trump's speech and thought it was gross (which seems to be the case) then that's fine.


lololololol Mugabe endorsed Trump.
 

Paskil

Member
So now some of us are Diablosing about ratings? Com'n now. It would have been funny if she had higher numbers than Trump (and might still be the case), but the DNC was fine. The campaign will be fine. Hillary will be fine.
 
When was the last time we had a 50-50 Senate?

Part of me would love to see Hillary cramming liberal Justices in using Kaine as the tiebreaker. The salt would be delicious.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
The convention was good. I've never been the type to spend a lot of time inside the convention so I wasn't there much on the first day thankfully. The obstruction and dumb shit I did see from Sanders delegates in the little time I was there was more than enough. The second day was a lot better. I hung out with the Guam delegates who traveled through like 6 timezones to get to Philly. Met with some old friends and got on television a couple times while I chilled with the Illinois delegation.

I spent more time inside during the third day. Got to see the VP and his wife. Briefly saw the president and gave him a hug. Didn't get to talk with Kaine. I did get to meet and speak with some Hillary campaign folks, mainly those who had worked on the Obama campaign. Obviously polls look meh but nothing has really changed on the ground where it matters. Hillary still has a commanding lead in terms of GOTV, grassroots infrastructure, and just about every other measurable campaign metric.

...

Obama's speech felt like a full circle moment to me, a feeling I've had a handful of times over the last year and a half. I couldn't help but be taken back to 2007. I knew of him at the time, and had briefly spoken to him before since I'm a Chicago machine guy, but going into that campaign I honestly didn't expect much. I thought he was too nice to do what was necessary to defeat the Clintons. I didn't know anything about his experience heading a campaign. I did know he was surrounded by a lot of aides who didn't have much experience. But I signed on anyway. And I watched how he went town to town, how voters slowly or quickly responded to his message, and the way he won people over as a man before winning them over as a politician.

The entire speech demonstrated his qualities, the same qualities that won Iowa and sparked an actual political revolution. I've never met someone in politics at that level (senator/governor/president/etc) who is as genuine and focused. The contrast between how he carries himself and how Trump acts is glaring, and I'd hope Americans will begin to think about that as we get closer to Labor Day. I could go on but ultimately Obama came into office, did a whole lot of what he said he was going to do, and is going to leave office without being changed.

...
To briefly go back to the third day, one of the coolest things I saw was simply Obama and Hillary interacting. There's an interesting warmness there. They aren't the best of friends and both sides have allies who aren't big fans of the other (including myself)...but I think they've bonded from a mutual experience of facing unrelenting hatred and opposition. It's rare to meet someone who has gone through something like that. In Hillary's case she's gone through it for decades. So I think they both understand how important it is to lift each other up. I could tell Hillary wasn't happy about some of the protests that happened, but Bill and Obama were constantly there sharing stories or memories or discussing family.

Glad to see Boss Man is doing well still. I was worried the presidency had made even him a cynic (especially after the last two years)

You mean Rural America in the plain states? IA is a pretty reliably lean Blue state and seems to be trending further that direction. Omaha's 2nd district seems to be doing the same. The rest? Nah

Seems pretty unlikely. Back when it was going Blue was back when Dems were the pro-white racist party before LBJ pushed the Civil Rights Act through.

Texas/LA/Arkansas/Tenn/GA/NC are the most likely to one day flip blue in some sort of order with NC/Texas being the most likely, and the rest needing massive demographic changes over a period of time.

Texas is getting there. Most major cities in the state are now progressive bastions. The old "Austin and a sea of Blue" jokes no longer apply. San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, El Paso are all turning into liberal hot beds. The burbs of those cities (and Austin's burbs to the North) are a different story.. we'll get there one day in my lifetime, probably just later than the Democrats want us.

I think the Midwest is winnable again - but I guess I think it's a fool's errand to try to predict future electoral maps based on the current election. I think a lot of the demographic based predictions are overcorrecting for Trump-like candidates being consistently nominated, while at least for now I think he's an outlier.
 
What's important is whether he's misreading the Constitution or the law, not whether he misreads the state of the country or the consequences. The problem with the preclearance requirement was not that it was completely unnecessary everywhere, but that it wasn't targeted to where it was necessary today.

(And Citizens United was correctly decided, of course, and the terrible consequences predicted by liberals have failed to materialize.)

I think it wasn't the country that he midread but rather Congress. Remember, the Court basically said the old formula was outdated and needed revision and Congress needs to do it.

Basically, what they said a few years prior but without striking down those portions of the VRA. I'm guessing Kennedy/Roberts thought by striking it down Congress would do its duty. They were wrong. The Republicans don't care because they just want their votes.

That was the miscalculation. Not that racism is dead or that states wouldn't try to do racist shit but that Congress would actually function as a governing body (or more specifically Congressional Republicans).

I think Kennedy, and possibly Roberts, regret that decision now. They put their faith in clowns.

(My point is you could make a valid case their argument for striking down those portions of the VRA were correct on some points but at the end of the day they needed to remain until competent people can fix the issue).


Also, regarding the NC decision. What is striking is not that is was struck down like in Wi and Tx. What was striking was not that the evidence showed the act discriminated.

The key finding, IMO, was that the Court's opinion was that the law was intentionally discriminatory towards African Americans. This could be them signaling the Obama Administration for preclearance? I mean...it was very sharp in tone with regards to this point. Unlike in Tx where they ruled that the law happened to cause discrimination against certain people, the NC Court ruled the law was written with that specific intention. Yikes.



BTW, Meta, may I ask you 2 unrelated questions?

1. What state do you live in?
2. Who do you intend to vote for in the Presidential election.

Obviously, you don't have to answer. I know you're not voting Trump, but I'm curious if you're voting Hillary or 3rd party or not at all (for Pres that is). And if you're not in a swing state, would you change your vote if you were in one?
 
When was the last time we had a 50-50 Senate?

Part of me would love to see Hillary cramming liberal Justices in using Kaine as the tiebreaker. The salt would be delicious.

2001 when Cheney flipped the Senate to the GOP. Though if Gore had won Lieberman would have been replaced with a Republican so the Republicans would have retained the Senate either way.
 
MOSCOW — From pro-Kremlin politicians to Cossacks, many Russians are convinced that the wildly popular Pokemon Go smartphone app is either a cunning Western plot to destabilize Russia or the spawn of Satan.

And quite possibly both.

“There is a feeling that the devil came through this mechanism and is simply trying to destroy us spiritually from within,” Franz Klintsevich, a senior Russian security official, told the state news agency TASS.

Although Pokemon Go by Nintendo has not received an official release in Russia, many people have downloaded the app by adjusting their smartphone settings. Popular sites for “catching” the game’s garish “pocket monsters” include Red Square, the territory of the city’s landmark Hotel Ukrainia and other areas in central Moscow.

Mr. Klintsevich, vice chairman of Russia’s Committee on Security and Defense of the upper house of parliament, also expressed concerns that the augmented reality game is a Western “psychological operation” that could be used to manipulate the minds of young people.

“This could lead all the way to revolution,” he said.

Mr. Klintsevich urged both houses of Russia’s parliament to consider legislation to restrict the use of Pokemon Go after Sept. 18 parliamentary elections.

State media quoted a retired national security service agent this month as saying the game could be a way for the U.S. to enlist unknowing people, including soldiers, into taking photographs of strategically important locations. The gaming app uses a smartphone’s GPS to create a map of the user’s surroundings and taps into the phone’s camera to superimpose an image of a Pokemon monster on the screen.

“Imagine that the little beast in question doesn’t appear in some park but at a secret site where a conscript or other soldier takes and photographs it with his camera,” Aleksander Mikhailov, a retired major general of the Federal Security Service, told state news agency RIA Novosti. “It’s recruitment by one’s own personal desire and without any coercion. This is the ideal way for secret services to gather information.”

Russia’s Communists, the second-largest political party in parliament, are also up in arms.

“Users of mobile devices with this game installed on it could become unsuspecting accomplices in terrorist acts,” read an official complaint that Communist Party lawmaker Denis Voronenkov sent to the Federal Security Service.

Mr. Voronenkov also said Pokemon Go was developed by the CIA to carry out “uninterrupted spying activities” in Russia.

His opinion was echoed by Alexander Dugin, an ultranationalist thinker with reported links to the Kremlin who said Niantic, the San-Francisco-based developer of Pokemon Go, has links to a CIA venture capital firm.

In St. Petersburg, Russia’s second-biggest city, the leader of the local Cossacks urged Russian officials to ban the smartphone app.

“We need to drag people out of the virtual world. It all smacks of Satanism,” Andrei Polyakov, leader of the Irbis Orthodox Union of Cossacks, told Russian media.

Russia is full of scrubs, let's not overrate their potential danger to the US.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/28/russians-fear-pokemon-go-a-western-plot-to-destabi/
 
I understand why Trump gets so much beef on here. By why is Jill Stein and Gary Johnson is not well liked? They seem reasonable.

Jill Stein is a fucking crackpot moron. She's Alex Jones of the right.

You're not going to find much support for Johnson here as we're fairly centrist to liberal and he's a libertarian. But the man is sane and competent, at least.

Stein isn't even worthy of being a footnote in history.
 
Minnesota is especially weird because it and Massachusetts have been the most reliably blue states since the Civil Rights Act was passed.

There is some reason to worry about PA and WI but Minnesota is going to be fine. Minneapolis / St Paul is like half the state so there are lots of cosmopolitan whites to balance out the rednecks. Its more like WA or OR.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
When was the last time we had a 50-50 Senate?

The first few years of the Dubya administration.

I think Kennedy, and possibly Roberts, regret that decision now. They put their faith in clowns.

You think so? Wasn't Roberts the one who said that the only way to get rid of racism is to stop having laws that make people racist (like the VRA)?
 
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/tv-ratings-hillary-clintons-dnc-915706

Two solid-ish weeks of political conventions culminated in Thursday's final outing for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton capped off the fourth night of the DNC with a history-making acceptance of her party's nomination during an address to the Philadelphia crowd — and a TV audience that came in just shy of Donald Trump's seven day earlier.

After a solid, if not spectacular, showing from the Republicans just a week ago, the DNC upped the ratings game by a strong margin over the first three days of its convention. It simultaneously outpaced its 2012 showing, albeit not by that much. Updated returns for Clinton's speech, delivered during the 10 o'clock hour on nearly all television networks, offer a tally of 33.3 million viewers from the four broadcast networks and three cablers with coverage.

CNN again led the pack with 7.5 million viewers during the speech's time period. MSNBC followed 5.3 million viewers, with broadcast sister network NBC News just behind with 4.5 million viewers. (That makes for the eighth night of convention coverage in which the network topped its broadcast competition.) ABC News follows with 3.9 million, with CBS pacing third with 3.7 million. Fox News Channel grabbed 3 million viewers. An additional 1.5 million viewers came from Spanish-language net Univision. PBS channels surged to a convention high, bringing in 3.9 million viewers during Clinton's speech.

But this has been a cable news convention cycle. CNN has handily topped every night of DNC overage, while Fox News outpaced the pack in RNC ratings. The two networks, along with NBC News, leave these two weeks with the most bragging right.

Though some smaller nets (see: CNBC and Fox Business) will have ratings arrive later, it won't likely top Donald Trump's audience last week as the 2016 conventions high. He brought in 34.9 million viewers across all nets carrying the speech. Outperforming 2012 and 2008 DNC showings from Barack Obama also won't be possible for Clinton. Those convention finales reached respective formidable tallies of 35.7 million and 38 million viewers.

Are we done freaking out now? Or are we going to Diablos over a 1.6 million difference?
 

gcubed

Member
I hope I don't offend anyone, but Johnson's policies seem like what a rather smart frat boy would like to have.

i'm not saying he has good policies :), its just both him and his VP have actually... you know... done something and didn't burn it to the ground, which is miles ahead of anything Jill Stein and her VP Stein Jill have done
 

BiggNife

Member
I think the biggest problem with Johnson isn't so much him but the party he represents

The fact that the Libertarian party is actually upset that their candidate supports the civil rights act is the most insane thing
 
I understand why Trump gets so much beef on here. By why is Jill Stein and Gary Johnson is not well liked? They seem reasonable.

I don't think that being anti-vaccination, anti-GMO, or anti-free-trade are reasonable stances at all. Nor do I think that eliminating government oversight and support programs for the poor is reasonable. In general, libertarianism is unreasonable. It places total faith in markets to act rationally, even though the actors within that market are often irrational. Much like Soviet-style communism, which placed total faith in the state to be completely efficient in every case, it's predicated on a fantasy.

This is what's scary - the only reasonable person running for the presidency is Hillary Clinton. Even past GOP candidates had a facade of reasonable behavior or beliefs that one could look at to convince themselves that he was reasonable.

Then Sarah Palin showed up, and since then, it's been crazy town.
 
A granddaughter of Sen. John McCain (Ariz), the 2008 GOP White House nominee, has come out in support of this year's Democratic presidential pick, Hillary Clinton, over her own party's nominee, Donald Trump.

In a Medium post titled, "For this Republican, Never Trump means 'I'm With Her,'" Caroline McCain writes that she became opposed to Trump last summer when he questioned her grandfather's status as a war hero.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...granddaughter-comes-out-in-support-of-clinton

McCain's granddaughter has more of a spine these days...
 

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
BTW, Meta, may I ask you 2 unrelated questions?

1. What state do you live in?
2. Who do you intend to vote for in the Presidential election.

Obviously, you don't have to answer. I know you're not voting Trump, but I'm curious if you're voting Hillary or 3rd party or not at all (for Pres that is). And if you're not in a swing state, would you change your vote if you were in one?

I don't live in a swing state, and I'm leaning towards Johnson right now. I don't think that would change if I lived in a swing state. I like neither of the major party candidates.

As for the VRA, I don't think I'd call what Roberts and Kennedy did a miscalculation in the sense that you do, because I don't think they anticipated that Congress would reenact the preclearance requirement, necessarily. Their analysis doesn't turn on what Congress would do.
 

Hindl

Member
I understand why Trump gets so much beef on here. By why is Jill Stein and Gary Johnson is not well liked? They seem reasonable.

Well first I think both the Green and Libertarian parties hold completely unfeasible positions, other than that I don't really have an objection to Johnson himself, at least outside of what his party's positions are. But as for Stein, in addition to all of her positions either being anti-science or "we're going to do everything the Democrats want, but 10x better and we'll actually get it through Congress", just is opportunistic. The only time she ever talks about her policy positions is when she's drawing a contrast to Hillary with the intention of riling up Busters. This lets her conveniently not mention some of her more out there positions that would turn off potential supporters, such as claiming a nuclear power plant is a WMD.
 
If Bloomberg doesn't want Trump to be President couldn't he just create like a 2 billion dollar super pac and make sure a commercial on every channel is showing how bad Trump is?
 
Saw an ad even worse than the anime girls I used to get. Something had to be done

1ghK5Yg.jpg
 
I don't live in a swing state, and I'm leaning towards Johnson right now. I don't think that would change if I lived in a swing state. I like neither of the major party candidates.

As for the VRA, I don't think I'd call what Roberts and Kennedy did a miscalculation in the sense that you do, because I don't think they anticipated that Congress would reenact the preclearance requirement, necessarily. Their analysis doesn't turn on what Congress would do.

Thanks for answering!

Well, with regards to the 2nd paragraph, I guess I should have said that it never even crossed their minds. I think if they knew now what they knew then, they would have their analysis turn on what Congress would do.
 
Also Stein is woefully unqualified to be President. She also is cray cray and has said she would use executive orders to do whatever the hell she wants. Then you've got the antiscience stuff and GMO business.
 

It's quite amazing that any patriotic American can support this guy after he called McCain a coward and is now turning his back towards our military allies in favor of Russia.

I'd like to think that liberals would never rally behind someone that is completely against a large portion of their core ideology, but I dont have much faith in that.
 
I don't think that being anti-vaccination, anti-GMO, or anti-free-trade are reasonable stances at all. Nor do I think that eliminating government oversight and support programs for the poor is reasonable. In general, libertarianism is unreasonable. It places total faith in markets to act rationally, even though the actors within that market are often irrational. Much like Soviet-style communism, which placed total faith in the state to be completely efficient in every case, it's predicated on a fantasy.

This is what's scary - the only reasonable person running for the presidency is Hillary Clinton. Even past GOP candidates had a facade of reasonable behavior or beliefs that one could look at to convince themselves that he was reasonable.

Then Sarah Palin showed up, and since then, it's been crazy town.

It's true that both Stein and Johnson have some pretty extreme views, but I think people don't take into account enough the powers and limitations of the presidency. The president is pretty constrained domestically and has nearly unlimited power in foreign policy. Johnson can try to dismantle the welfare state all he wants, it'll work out as well for him as privatizing social security did for Bush. But he's not going to face any opposition in regards to foreign policy and civil liberties where he's most in line with progressive values. Meanwhile, Clinton's progressive bona fides are most questionable exactly where the presidency is strongest.
 

gcubed

Member
It's quite amazing that any patriotic American can support this guy after he called McCain a coward and is now turning his back towards our military allies in favor of Russia.

I'd like to think that liberals would never rally behind someone that is completely against a large portion of their core ideology, but I dont have much faith in that.

i think its amazing that McCain supports him
 

Like they'd ever show anything like that. Not that it matters. Soft Republicans are not watching Fox News. Those people watched on other networks/online.


I'm having a hard time trying to figure out the most important line of the DNC. I thought it might be "Don't boo, vote," because it was classic Obama ad lib at the perfect moment.


But man oh man, it has to be "You've sacrificed nothing." That speech was unique in that it clearly came from the man's heart...standing there with his wife.

I wish that speech was in prime time slot so more people could have seen it. It was just so utterly powerful. Not just because of the words spoken but you could see it in his eyes and feel it in his tone of voice.

I didn't comment on it last night because it really didn't need anything to be said.
 
Yeah, even if you're "more ideologically aligned" with Stein I think the people voting for her should actually ask what she would do with her presidency. What would her cabinet and foreign policy look like? What is she going to do with Congress when all of them are in a different party than her, so who are her allies and what kind of legislation can she get passed. She's never been elected to anything higher than a city council so what kind of experience does she offer for leadership and working with the huge nationwide problems? At least Johnson has been a governor and could probably work okay with Republicans on some stuff and has an idea of what being a leader is like.

Of course, no one voting for Stein wants to answer these questions because they aren't interested in Stein being president, just how special voting for her makes them feel.
 

User1608

Banned
Khan's speech was the most powerful I felt. Seeing him hold out his copy of the constitution, and telling Trump he's sacrificed nothing, wow.

The only other speech that resonated with me was Sarah McBride's, but that's more for personal reasons and how happy I was to see a trans person speak in front of such a large platform and audience.

Four years ago, I came out as transgender while serving as student body president in college. At the time, I was scared. I worried that my dreams and my identity were mutually exclusive. Since then, though, I’ve seen that change is possible.

The bolded in particular, I completely understand because I went through it, not the same way, but close.

Seeing immigrants being considered as humans and Americans was greatly appreciated too. This convention has made me more hopeful about our future.
 
It's true that both Stein and Johnson have some pretty extreme views, but I think people don't take into account enough the powers and limitations of the presidency. The president is pretty constrained domestically and has nearly unlimited power in foreign policy. Johnson can try to dismantle the welfare state all he wants, it'll work out as well for him as privatizing social security did for Bush. But he's not going to face any opposition in regards to foreign policy and civil liberties where he's most in line with progressive values. Meanwhile, Clinton's progressive bona fides are most questionable exactly where the presidency is strongest.

I do see your point, but I think your post assumes a narrower concept of "progressive bona fides" than maybe there is. I prefer the use of soft power to military power wherever possible, but I'm not as disdainful of military intervention as other people are, and Hillary's willingness to use military power in situations where that might be appropriate does not strike me as necessarily against "progressive bona fides." I reject the idea that non-interventionism is necessarily progressive.

On the other hand, having a president who actively supports the tearing down of social programs being elected normalizes and gives legitimacy to those positions, and that's before mentioning that he could nominate judges for SCOTUS that would then be put in a position to affect legislation toward those ends and set precedent for those views.
 
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