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[Grexeno]

Nate is an absolute embarrassment this election.

 

[User 463088]

His adjustments in North Carolina are even more infuriating. The only poll with Trump ahead is from March and he insides it to favor Trump by more and weighs it more heavily than polls from June and July!

 

[Diablos]

This seems like Diablosing to me. Trump won't have anywhere to hide in a 1-1 debate.

What if he refuses to attend and shows up live on Fox or something and baits her into HIS debate?

Plouffe saying +350, and how she gets there:

358.

In Plouffe we trust. He is pretty smart. He wouldn't just throw that prediction around to make us feel ok

Edit:
Fucking autocorrect

 

[Sibylus]

There is nothing to gain and the nation to lose sinking to the levels of fascists.

 

[Thequietone]

Shower thought: I don't think Hillary can beat Trump by being herself. There was a ton of GOP candidates and noone could beat him. I think that the only way to beat Trump is being Trump.

I hope that she will beat him in upcoming debates by being factual, but I won't be suprised if she can't.

Rubio tried that and failed miserably.

 

[gcubed]

Shower thought: I don't think Hillary can beat Trump by being herself. There was a ton of GOP candidates and noone could beat him. I think that the only way to beat Trump is being Trump.

I hope that she will beat him in upcoming debates by being factual, but I won't be suprised if she can't.

No.

Trump can't debate anyone. He's never been in a debate. The shitshows during the primaries weren't debates.

This should not be in your top 100000000 of your worries

 

[Loudninja]

I don't think Nate's model was built to handle this election. What the hell is going on?

Heh not sure why you made a topic though.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

I don't think Nate's model was built to handle this election. What the hell is going on?

It's still pretty good. I think I've seen you mention Sam Wang too so why all the alarm and concern? Nate is just talking a lot and you can't deny Trump is seeing traction unless you engage in motivated reasoning. Time will tell so let's all take a deep breath and see what Mr. Trump can do.

 

[Fuchsdh]

He literally can't help it. The guy that wrote Art of the Deal said his (I'm paraphrasing here) narcissism won't allow him to not respond to anything, good or bad. He HAS to be involved. It's a pathology.

Yep. I admit I really thought he would actually be able to rein it in for the general, but he seems incapable. I dunno how such a guy even managed to be as successful in business as Trump has been; seems like he'd torpedo himself way more than he has.

 

[Y2Kev]

Why would you make a thread about this? You just posted a screenshot and that was it. I'm disappointed this is now TWO poligaffers who think it is thread worthy to make threads about 538 in July.

 

[ThLunarian]

Maybe Silver is doing this on purpose to scare liberals and make them go to the polls. Maybe he's so scared of a Trump presidency that he is willing to ruin his own reputation in order to help prevent it

 

[kadotsu]

Why do we even pay attention to the non-bayesian clickbait model when an actual good model is available on the same site.

 

[fantomena]

No.

Trump can't debate anyone. He's never been in a debate. The shitshows during the primaries weren't debates.

This should not be in your top 100000000 of your worries

So Hillary will definitely take him down?

 

[RustyNails]

Can we ban 538 on neogaf?

 

[pigeon]

What if he refuses to attend and shows up live on Fox or something and baits her into HIS debate?

Wait, are you actually Diablosing right now or are you doing a schtick as a joke?

 

[eBay Huckster]

Can we ban 538 on neogaf?

Second.

(At the very least, close threads dedicated to the "nowcast", because it's statistically worthless and just enables obnoxious chicken littling)

 

[theprodigy]

Why would you make a thread about this? You just posted a screenshot and that was it. I'm disappointed this is now TWO poligaffers who think it is thread worthy to make threads about 538 in July.

then lock that thread

 

[User 463088]

Can we ban 538 on neogaf?

Pursuant to the rules of the Convention, a motion has been made to ban 538 on NeoGaf. Do I hear a second?

Edit: A second has been made.

Edit: And a third.

All those in favor say AYE
All opposed say NAY

In the opinion of the chair, the AYES have it and the motion is adopted

: bangs :

 

[BrokenFiction]

Second.

(At the very least, close threads dedicated to the "nowcast", because it's statistically worthless and just enables obnoxious chicken littling)

Thirded.

 

[VRMN]

Maybe Silver is doing this on purpose to scare liberals and make them go to the polls. Maybe he's so scared of a Trump presidency that he is willing to ruin his own reputation in order to help prevent it

I might have laughed at this if I hadn't just listened to Keepin it 1600 and hearing the Hillary pollster talk about how it's probably better if liberals are scared, because we really, really need to beat Trump.

Most persuasive argument for Diablosing/bed wetting I've heard.

 

[Crayons]

Trump's true motives revealed!

 

[royalan]

Pursuant to the rules of the Convention, a motion has been made to ban 538 on NeoGaf. Do I hear a second?

Edit: A second has been made.

Edit: And a third.

All those in favor say AYE
All opposed say NAY

In the opinion of the chair, the AYES have it and the motion is adopted

: bangs :

THE NAYS HAD IT. I HAVE SEVERAL CELLPHONE VIDS PROVING IT.

RIGGED

*Picks up chair*

 

[Slayven]

Can somebody run down how 538 went from the goldenboy of elections to shit?

 

[Iolo]

I don't think it's wise to ban an entire election site because you don't like their methodology. Just don't create daily threads about it.

Btw this includes if it shows her way up in a week

 

[Diablos]

Wait, are you actually Diablosing right now or are you doing a schtick as a joke?

I don't know. More like second guessing myself. No one knows. You see how we are all in here checking ourselves but we all know he's so unconventional. We have nothing to compare this election to.

Ahhhhhhh

 

[Grexeno]

Can somebody run down how 538 went from the goldenboy of elections to shit?

Nate fucked the Republican primary up something awful. Now he's frantically flailing.

 

[Emarv]

I don't think it's wise to ban an entire election site because you don't like their methodology. Just don't create daily threads about it.

Btw this includes if it shows her way up in a week

Same.

 

[Rebel Leader]

Pursuant to the rules of the Convention, a motion has been made to ban 538 on NeoGaf. Do I hear a second?

Edit: A second has been made.

Edit: And a third.

All those in favor say AYE
All opposed say NAY

In the opinion of the chair, the AYES have it and the motion is adopted

: bangs :

 

[Rebel Leader]

Can somebody run down how 538 went from the goldenboy of elections to shit?

The impossibly illogical of Trump

 

[Loudninja]

I don't think it's wise to ban an entire election site because you don't like their methodology. Just don't create daily threads about it.

Btw this includes if it shows her way up in a week

Agreed.

 

[Slayven]

Nate fucked the Republican primary up something awful. Now he's frantically flailing.

So he is over correcting like the makers of the ghost in the shell movies?

 

[Cerium]

538 may have jumped the shark this election, but their forecasts should help drive turnout. This is a good thing. Let people be scared; scared voters don't stay home.

 

[daedalius]

Johnson has that crossover ish libertarian and liberal vibe. I do wonder if he will draw from both Hillary and Trump. Low info young liberal voters, stubborn far left children and conservative minded voters who can't vote for Trump. Plus actual libertarians. It's concerning. If it was just Stein, lol. But that's not the case.

He definitely has some stubborn far left children that I know of in Washington state.

 

[eBay Huckster]

I don't think it's wise to ban an entire election site because you don't like their methodology. Just don't create daily threads about it.

Btw this includes if it shows her way up in a week

I'm in favor of banning the daily threads and I'd be in favor of that if they had Clinton at 99% while everyone else had her between 60-80% right now - all they do is enable concern trolling on one side and chicken littling on the other.

 

[Emarv]

Yeah, as statistically wary as I am of their model, I'm okay with 538 essentially being the nation's Doomsday Clock.

 

[pigeon]

Yeah, banning 538 really would make us crazy unskewers. No to that.

Mostly I would like to ask why they're being so weird. The last two polls that came out showed a large bounce for Clinton. Why did the polls-only model move towards Trump? That makes no sense.

 

[HylianTom]

Too much panic/focus on 538.

Side question: is there any chance that Paul Ryan's district could be redrawn after 2020? I think that'd be a fitting fate.

 

[ampere]

The good thing about Johnson is that he'll suck up the Mormon vote in NV, AZ, and UT.

I was gonna say, what would a Romney endorsement even do, get more Mormons to vote for him? But you make a good point about Mormon votes being potential swing factors in those states.

I don't think Nate's model was built to handle this election. What the hell is going on?

Now-cast is pure garbage. I want to know what Nate is smoking

 

[Aaron Strife]

Yeah, banning 538 really would make us crazy unskewers. No to that.

Mostly I would like to ask why they're being so weird. The last two polls that came out showed a large bounce for Clinton. Why did the polls-only model move towards Trump? That makes no sense.

I don't know why the Now-cast shows better odds for Clinton than the Polls-only one.

In any case, Nate says the one to follow is Polls-plus which still shows a higher than 60% chance of Clinton winning, and it's subject to the least amount of noise. So whatever. Let people panic for a couple of days.

Too much panic/focus on 538.

Side question: is there any chance that Paul Ryan's district could be redrawn after 2020? I think that'd be a fitting fate.

We'll need to make sure Wisconsin elects a Dem governor by then, and hopefully a Dem State Senate (it happened during the Walker recall). The State Assembly is probably a bit far-flung, unfortunately.

 

[Diablos]

Yeah, banning 538 really would make us crazy unskewers. No to that.

Mostly I would like to ask why they're being so weird. The last two polls that came out showed a large bounce for Clinton. Why did the polls-only model move towards Trump? That makes no sense.

Every poligaffer on Twitter, spam him with this question.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Mostly I just want there to be polling megathreads so that people don't get 500 posts out of the latest "SHOCK RESULT" thread every other day

 

[ampere]

Banning 538 would be ridiculous, but we should stop using the "now-cast" at all and only look at polls-only/polls-plus

 

[Angry Grimace]

Can somebody run down how 538 went from the goldenboy of elections to shit?

They started showing results people don't like. Its the same reason the GOP ignored Nate in 2012. He was saying things they didn't like so they said he was crazy and wrong.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Pursuant to the rules of the Convention, a motion has been made to ban 538 on NeoGaf. Do I hear a second?

Edit: A second has been made.

Edit: And a third.

All those in favor say AYE
All opposed say NAY

In the opinion of the chair, the AYES have it and the motion is adopted

: bangs :

NO TPP

NO TPP

 

[User 85168]

So yall should chill, but looking at recently added (adjusted) polls:

Arizona Trump +8

Ipsos National Trump +1

Because their model goes with the idea that states follow the national trend and adjusted polling average has them tied nation-wide (look at the highest valued national polls, most of them older and tied, that's one part I don't really get), states are trending towards Trump. We should just chill for about 1-2 weeks for most of the post-DNC polls.

 

[sc0la]

NO TPP

NO TPP

*Drowns out dubbedenglish*
Hill-La-Ry
Hill-La-Ry

 

[eBay Huckster]

That's the thing where I'm concerned, though (to the extent that I care about the models, not the polls): why take national polls into account to that extent when you know full well Wang is doing just as well as you just taking averages of state polls?

 

[Angry Grimace]

We are in the most notoriously unreliable polling period of the election cycle. I'm not going to worry about it that much until we get to the debates and such.

 

[itschris]

New York Times: Electoral Map Gives Donald Trump Few Places to Go

Donald J. Trump, confronting a daunting electoral map and a significant financial disadvantage, is preparing to fall back from an expansive national campaign and concentrate the bulk of his time and money on just three or four states that his campaign believes he must sweep in order to win the presidency.

Even as Mr. Trump has ticked up in national polls in recent weeks, senior Republicans say his path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election has remained narrow — and may have grown even more precarious. It now looks exceedingly difficult for him to assemble even the barest Electoral College majority without beating Hillary Clinton in a trifecta of the biggest swing states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

President Obama won all three states in 2008 and 2012, and no Republican has won Pennsylvania in nearly three decades.

With a divisive campaign message that has alienated many women and Hispanics, Mr. Trump appears to have pushed several traditional swing states out of his own reach. According to strategists on both sides of the race, polling indicates that Mrs. Clinton has a solid upper hand in Colorado and Virginia, the home state of Senator Tim Kaine, her running mate. Both states voted twice for George W. Bush, who assiduously courted Hispanic voters and suburban moderates.

In addition, Trump allies have grown concerned about North Carolina, a Republican-leaning state that has large communities of black voters and college-educated whites — two audiences with which Mr. Trump is deeply unpopular.

While Mr. Trump is not ready to give up entirely on any of the major battlegrounds, advisers have become increasingly convinced that his most plausible route to the presidency, and perhaps his only realistic victory scenario, involves capturing all three of the biggest electoral prizes on the map, and keeping North Carolina in the Republican column.

Mr. Trump and his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana, are expected to campaign intensively across those four must-win states, with Mr. Trump trumpeting a set of blunt slogans through mass media and Mr. Pence focused on shoring up support from conservatives and right-of-center whites.

 

[UltimaPooh]

Gotta fight the tweets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hYC9jR2Wwo