Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Pennsylvania is GOP Fool's Gold. They're going to keep going to that well and getting burned.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
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Good luck. This is why you shouldn't be nervous. He's not going to win NC, OH, PA, AND FL
GutsOfThor
Member
I agree. I would support banning all poll threads until after labor day actually.
Banning 538 would be tremendously stupid because you shouldn't just ban something because you currently disagree with it
Having said that I agree with pigeon that I don't understand at all how Trump's likelihood keeps rising in spite of a bunch of recent polls giving hillary a comfortable lead.
Having said that I agree with pigeon that I don't understand at all how Trump's likelihood keeps rising in spite of a bunch of recent polls giving hillary a comfortable lead.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
People making up reasons they don't understand for why they don't like the methodology isn't convincing to me anymore than the GOP claim that all polls oversampled Democrats in 2012. Saying you don't understand why his model looks different than the other models that show more favorable results isn't in and of itself a valid criticism, particularly if you try and validate poll results based on things taken this very minute right in the middle of convention mania.
If you guy just want to read random aberrant happy fun time polls here you go:
http://www.rabaresearch.com/documents/RABA-Updated-National-Survey-July-2016-2.pdf
Clinton +15.
I would have thought that the recent state polls showing her up in GOP states would have bouied her numbers and not his. Then there's the national polls. Is Nate putting his finger on the scale because of the primaries? Maybe it just takes longer than we thought for the new polling to have an effect on the race in his model.
It's not so much a criticism, it's that I'm just confused and I wish Nate was more transparent about why he weighs certain polls certain ways
Like, he explained that recent polls were being weighted way more, which explains the trump bump, but then it doesn't explain why hillary isn't getting a bump despite a bunch of recent polls having her in the lead.
I'm not saying Nate is wrong and is a poopy dumb head. I generally trust his statistics, even if I think he's kind of a shitty pundit. But I just don't understand the current numbers.
What happened to Trump focusing on California and New York?
Someone should really tweet him and ask if he is running away with his tail between his legs
Or you could just go look at what Sam Wang says. The two were basically the same until this year with Nate Silver's change in methodology.
RustyNails
Member
I dont want 538 banned because disagree with 538. I just think Nate Silver is being a click hungry whore this entire election cycle. His notice me trump senpai shtick from the primaries was embarassing, now it's just sad. Tell us the methodology to weight numbers? Why is he so off compared to others?
theprodigy
Member
There are too many poll threads in general in the OT, just a make a megathread to post all polls and forecasts.
But the thing is, despite his shitty ass punditry during the primaries, his stats were still spot on. They predicted trump winning and he did.
This is really the only time I've seen 538's stats go against the grain of everyone else. It's just weird.
How can "now-cast" be right for most of the year when the election is only held once?
It's just not a useful metric. I'm not discounting polls-plus
The problem is cherry picked poll topics.
Note that their public position, including from Manafort just two days ago, is that they are still competing in those states.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Who cares.
I wasn't referring to Now-Cast. I find that largely unimportant.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Listen, Paul, you're a fucking loser and should shut up and use that mouth for eating pussy or sucking dick because that's literally all it could be good for.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Was there anything new added for this to happen?
Hell yeah, and I got your hashtag: #puppydonald
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
538 and Sam were both incredibly accurate last election, did Nate give any reasons why he changed his methodology? If it's due to how his forecasting of the primary went, it makes me question his judgement considerably.
nature boy
Member
Told ya.
User 85168
Banned
Nate's model is pretty much the same as 2012's.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
2012 didn't have three separate models.
User 85168
Banned
Their main model works almost same way. They also had a now cast back then too.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/
User 463088
Banned
I'm not interested in arguing about Nate, but what I don't understand is how he adjusts and determines which polls should be weighed more or less heavily.
Take PA, for instance.
Polls Plus weights the brand new Suffolk University poll at 0.51. They're a B+ pollster. A Gravis Poll, from the end of June, is weighted at 1.01, even though they are rated lower than Suffolk. In the polls only forecast, the Suffolk poll is weighted even lower (0.44). while a poll from APRIL is weighted at 0.71.
I don't get it.
Take PA, for instance.
Polls Plus weights the brand new Suffolk University poll at 0.51. They're a B+ pollster. A Gravis Poll, from the end of June, is weighted at 1.01, even though they are rated lower than Suffolk. In the polls only forecast, the Suffolk poll is weighted even lower (0.44). while a poll from APRIL is weighted at 0.71.
I don't get it.
Time, shifting the weights
Yasss King, Weeerrrrkkkkk!
Gotcha. I think that's what's causing all of the anti-538 sentiment here
Still no idea why they made that tool
Slurpy2k20
Member
Why the fuck does Google now shove these articles down my throat? What a despicable article and batshit insane website.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-29/no-one-can-stop-her-and-she-knows-it-election-wont-be-fair
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-29/no-one-can-stop-her-and-she-knows-it-election-wont-be-fair
538 is a bit weird now, but didn't Nate pretty much say to ignore the numbers for a while after the post-convention dust has settled? That said, the Now Cast is pretty much pure click bait at this point.
Trump's Khan comments are repugnant, but also stupid. This is the speech so good conservatives were praising it on Twitter, and Fox News desperately wanted to ignore it. Let Trump bring more attention to it.
Trump's Khan comments are repugnant, but also stupid. This is the speech so good conservatives were praising it on Twitter, and Fox News desperately wanted to ignore it. Let Trump bring more attention to it.
Clicks. They're owned by ESPN now, so they're probably expected to drive traffic more than they were when they were under the NY Times.
nature boy
Member
So Trump says he wants 3 debates, but not competing against any NFL game, because the NFL doesn't want to compete with the debates.
Now-Cast is their clickbait. It's how they grab headlines, stay relevant, and get people to visit their site. It feeds people's hysteria and need for "information" to consume. If they only did one prediction for the percentage and EC numbers for November then people would only visit their site once or report on their prediction, etc. Now-Cast is the opposite of that. It's not useful or predictive, it's not about November, it's about right now for the sake of attention.
Didn't Nate basically point this out on Twitter as well? He said its there if you want to "panic"!
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
That's not going to stop people from making threads about it.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
nature boy
Member
Basileus777
Member
Trump is just a compulsive liar, even about things that anyone with sense would know he would get corrected on.
My lord.
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