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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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Steven Portnoy ‏@stevenportnoy 3h3 hours ago

Trump's support among self-ID'd conservatives in our @CBSNewsPoll is at 64%.
Bush in '04 exits - 84%
McCain in '08 - 78%
Romney in '12 -82%

Steven Portnoy ✔ @stevenportnoy

Perhaps the most startling finding in @CBSNewsPoll:
Among self-described conservatives, 21% now say they'll vote for Clinton over Trump.
 

Bowdz

Member
Steven Portnoy ‏@stevenportnoy 3h3 hours ago

Trump's support among self-ID'd conservatives in our @CBSNewsPoll is at 64%.
Bush in '04 exits - 84%
McCain in '08 - 78%
Romney in '12 -82%

Steven Portnoy ✔ @stevenportnoy

Perhaps the most startling finding in @CBSNewsPoll:
Among self-described conservatives, 21% now say they'll vote for Clinton over Trump.

Holy shit at that drop. If that holds true, that right there is game, set, and match.
 
Wow. Still waiting on one of the Bush's to openly endorse Hillary. I think Bush 41 will do it.

I hope Papa Bush pulls the trigger. I don't see Dubya doing it, but maybe

bushhillary.jpg
 
Trump going after Khan is by far the worst thing he's done and the number one thing that could get moderate Republicans to ditch him and vote for someone else. Any Republican up for election this year is going to be slaughtered by attack ads unless they explicitly condemn and refuse to endorse him (at least hopefully).
 
It probably won't hold, but Jesus the last two weeks have been brutal for Trump. If he has many weeks as bad going forward, he'll be destroyed.
 
Steven Portnoy ‏@stevenportnoy 3h3 hours ago

Trump's support among self-ID'd conservatives in our @CBSNewsPoll is at 64%.
Bush in '04 exits - 84%
McCain in '08 - 78%
Romney in '12 -82%

Steven Portnoy ✔ @stevenportnoy

Perhaps the most startling finding in @CBSNewsPoll:
Among self-described conservatives, 21% now say they'll vote for Clinton over Trump.

Looking at this breakdown, Trump is still strong with Republicans so these are conservative independents. Some will swing back but its possible he ends up with 70% or so.

315 Registered Voters - Republican 13 81 4 2 Trump +68
440 Registered Voters - independent 38 39 17 5 Trump +1
 
My guess is that it's Hillary + 3 because PPP tends to not have many wild swings due to how often they poll and PA is fairly inelastic.
 
The Florida Renewal Project is an affiliate of conservative activist David Lane’s American Renewal Project, which hosts “Rediscovering God” conferences around the country.

The event will put Rubio in the company of some of the most extreme anti-gay activists in the country:

David Lane, whose organization is hosting the event, believes that gay rights will lead to the “utter destruction” of the U.S. and “car bombs in Los Angeles, Washington D.C. and Des Moines, Iowa.” (Learn more about David Lane here).

Mat Staver, whose Liberty Counsel Action sent out the invitation to the event and who is scheduled to speak, has gained a national reputation by representing Davis and Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore through the affiliated Liberty Counsel. Last month, Staver denounced memorial gatherings for the victims of the Orlando nightclub attack as “homosexual love fests.” Staver has claimed that gay people are “demonic,” seek to abuse children and are similar to terrorists, and has warned that gay rights victories could lead to “forced homosexuality” and “another civil war.” At the same time, he has praised countries that outlaw same-sex relationships. (Learn more about Mat Staver here).

David Barton, a Republican Party activist who styles himself as a historian, thinks that God is justly preventing a cure for HIV/AIDS because it is a divine “penalty” for homosexuality, and has lamented that public schools try to “force” students “to be homosexual” when homosexuality really should be regulated by the government. (Learn more about David Barton here).

Maine pastor Ken Graves preaches against “militant homofascism” that he says “seeks to take over our land and make it Sodom” and argues that gay people cannot build happy families because they are “depressed.”

Bill Federer, a Religious Right activist and conspiracy theorist, believes that gay rights are bringing about the Islamist takeover of America.

http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/marco-rubio-headline-radical-anti-lgbt-event

Well, at least Marco "I have no values or morals and just do what my masters tell me to do" Rubio didn't use gay people recently to advance his political care-

Washington (CNN)Sen. Marco Rubio seemed to open the door to running for re-election Monday, when asked whether the Orlando nightclub shootings had changed his decision not to seek another term.

Asked by conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt if the shootings had led him to reconsider his decision not to run for re-election, Rubio pushed the door open an inch after holding it tightly shut for weeks.

"I haven't even given it thought in that perspective, other than to say I've been deeply impacted by it and I think when it visits your home states, when it impacts a community you know well, it really gives you pause, to think a little bit about your service to your country and where you can be most useful to your country," Rubio told Hewitt. Rubio's Senate office posted the clip to his YouTube account shortly afterward Monday morning.

"You know, honestly, I haven't thought about it from a political perspective but it most certainly has impacted my thinking in general about a lot of things," Rubio added.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/13/politics/marco-rubio-senate-orlando-shootings/

Marco "I have no spine and am the biggest loser you've ever seen" Rubio at least has better thoughts about the continuation of the human race though, ri-

Back in February, Rubio was saying of Trump that we should not hand “the nuclear codes of the United States to an erratic individual.” He likened the idea of Trump to the “lunatic in North Korea with nuclear weapons.” Asked by Greta Van Susteren if he really believed Donald Trump “is a con artist who should not get access to nuclear codes,” Rubio said “Absolutely. Absolutely.”

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/05/...so-ill-keep-my-pledge-to-support-the-nominee/

"We have got to come together as a party. We cannot lose to Hillary Clinton. We cannot lose the White House," Rubio said on Saturday, reports the Sarasota Herald-Tribune. Then came the money line: "We have to make sure that Donald wins this election."

http://www.weeklystandard.com/rubio-embraces-trump-by-name/article/2003608

Marco "you will only remember me for being such a scrub that I was humiliated by Chris Christie on a debate stage" Rubio's loss will be sweet!
 

pigeon

Banned
This Muslim Brotherhood smear is really intensely disgusting. The saddest part to me is I read through the whole blog post and it makes an incredibly poor argument. You really have to want to believe and have a bunch of preexisting ideas about Muslims trying to infiltrate and destroy America in order for it to seem persuasive.
 
Bernie Sanders ‏@BernieSanders 1h1 hour ago

Fundamental and transformational change doesn't happen overnight – it takes time to happen. This movement has got to continue.

This seems really, really desperate. Guis, it HAS to continue. COME ON! I can has $27?
 

Iolo

Member
There's a new election update on 538: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-bounce-appears-bigger-than-trumps/

Also with some thoughts behind each polling model they use on their site.

It sounds like polls-only takes into account the last few weeks of polling when attributing a percentage chance.

He also says he likes his polls-plus model the best.
Polls-only: I tell you what, this thing has been trending to Trump for weeks. The guy was down 7 percentage points in June, and now he’s just about tied it up. What’s that? You’re telling me that some of that was a convention bounce? Sorry, bud — you didn’t program any assumptions about a convention bounce into me. So I wouldn’t know anything about that. The Trump train was rolling down the tracks. You expect me to turn around on a dime based on a few good polls for Clinton? If she’s really gained that much, I’m gonna have to see more proof. I know you think I’m as stubborn as an old Cray-2, but one of these days, I’ll save your behind from getting too far out in front of itself.

So we were hoping for a blog post for 538 to explain why they were adjusting polls in Trump's favor lately, and keeping very old polls around. Instead, we got Polls-only responding to us in the voice of Fred Thompson.
 

pigeon

Banned
Bernie Sanders ‏@BernieSanders 1h1 hour ago

Fundamental and transformational change doesn't happen overnight – it takes time to happen. This movement has got to continue.

This seems really, really desperate. Guis, it HAS to continue. COME ON! I can has $27?

That tweet is pro-Hillary!
 
So we were hoping for a blog post for 538 to explain why they were adjusting polls in Trump's favor lately, and keeping very old polls around. Instead, we got Polls-only responding to us in the voice of Fred Thompson.

It's basically Nate admitting that we should only be looking at poll-plus and the other models are there to provide content. What would be the point of poll aggregate models that don't take into account convention bounces being used this early in the race?
 
http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/marco-rubio-headline-radical-anti-lgbt-event

Well, at least Marco "I have no values or morals and just do what my masters tell me to do" Rubio didn't use gay people recently to advance his political care-



http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/13/politics/marco-rubio-senate-orlando-shootings/

Marco "I have no spine and am the biggest loser you've ever seen" Rubio at least has better thoughts about the continuation of the human race though, ri-



http://hotair.com/archives/2016/05/...so-ill-keep-my-pledge-to-support-the-nominee/



http://www.weeklystandard.com/rubio-embraces-trump-by-name/article/2003608

Marco "you will only remember me for being such a scrub that I was humiliated by Chris Christie on a debate stage" Rubio's loss will be sweet!
"The Pulse shootings made me realize how important it is to stay on as senator"

"It made me realize that no matter how many gay men are shot to death, it will never be enough"
 
Bernie Sanders ‏@BernieSanders 1h1 hour ago

Fundamental and transformational change doesn't happen overnight – it takes time to happen. This movement has got to continue.

This seems really, really desperate. Guis, it HAS to continue. COME ON! I can has $27?

That seems to be an appeal to his holdouts, essentially saying that Hillary will allow the movement to continue. Unless I'm reading it wrong?
 
Bernie Sanders ‏@BernieSanders 1h1 hour ago

Fundamental and transformational change doesn't happen overnight – it takes time to happen. This movement has got to continue.

This seems really, really desperate. Guis, it HAS to continue. COME ON! I can has $27?

Come now. He's trying to make sure his followers come into the fold and hold a realistic idea of what political change means. He is fighting to get younger people involved in running for office sooner so that the party can genuinely be moved further left. He also is genuine in wanting people to vote for Hilary as he understands losing the court and giving the GOP all 3 branches could set back the left 20 years.

Im just worried a fuckstick is going to attack Rio and all will be forgotten.

Edit: is this cartoon soldiering or diablosing?

Rio's problems are pretty well documented. I doubt there is going to be an ISIS attack, if anything I'd expect local political protests to be potentially violent and further organizational dysfunction at the games to take time from political news.
 

Teggy

Member
Huffpost average back to 47-42 Clinton already.

We need some Florida polling. We've got only 2 recent polls and they have 10 point swing in opposite directions.
 

gcubed

Member
Khan Swiftboating is beginning. Alleged ties to Clinton Foundation, Shariah, Muslim Brotherhood etc.

only problem for Trump is that this only works with the sliver of True Believers he has and alienates everyone else.

I mean, they have to know that they can't win on whites alone, because they can't win with college educated whites or with white women, there aren't enough men / non-college educated to offset minorities who fear for their lives in a Trump presidency
 
Joy Reid ‏@JoyAnnReid 3m3 minutes ago

No, @ninaturner is NOT considering joining the @JillStein ticket. I have that from the highest possible source. Nina is a Democrat.
 

Holmes

Member
Joy Reid ‏@JoyAnnReid 3m3 minutes ago

No, @ninaturner is NOT considering joining the @JillStein ticket. I have that from the highest possible source. Nina is a Democrat.
Highest possible source? Did Joy Reid look in the mirror and say "are you joining the Green party ticket?"
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Joy Reid ‏@JoyAnnReid 3m3 minutes ago

No, @ninaturner is NOT considering joining the @JillStein ticket. I have that from the highest possible source. Nina is a Democrat.

SOMEBODY CHECK ON HA GOODMAN
 
Khan, continued

Andrew Rafferty ‏@AndrewNBCNews 8m8 minutes ago
Obama: 'As commander-in-chief, I'm pretty tired of some folks trash-talking America's military and troops'
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
IDK polling and such is going basically how I imagined it would since basically the point at which Trump clinched the nom - Hillary would start with a big lead and it would probably go even or even slightly favor Trump because his campaign is such a carnival sideshow.

Clinton was always going to get high unfavorables, especially when the email scandal got resolved, but I figured it would start to slowly resolve itself as we got closer to the election because I don't believe that Hillary is particularly unlikable.

As for Trump, he's gonna keep saying whatever to keep his name in the news, but I don't think you're going to see the clear trend of him getting completely outclassed until the debates happen, where I'm almost certain he's going to get annihilated because he legitimately doesn't know anything about politics. Not only that, but even assuming he had any kind of actual policy aims beyond vague Republican-sounding pablum and lame as fuck insults, he's not even a good speaker; he sucks.
 
Joy Reid ‏@JoyAnnReid 3m3 minutes ago

No, @ninaturner is NOT considering joining the @JillStein ticket. I have that from the highest possible source. Nina is a Democrat.
Stupid desperation from Stein.

Nina wants to be a part of the future of the party the Sanders wing. But still in a party that will matter in 4 years.

Remember Bill helped Nina out and she was an early clinton supporter before she went to Sanders (I still believe this was pretty opportunistic)
 
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