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[Carpe Libertatem]

Hillary actually did succeed at making inroads into Republican voters, considering her improved numbers with college white voters. The downside is that this gave up Midwestern working class voters and (probably, this is just an assumption on my part based on anecdotal evidence) helped depress young minority turnout, the groups she was already shakiest with.

Making inroads with Republican voters is not mutually exclusive with winning Midwestern working class voters. You can do both.

Mostly, the Democrats underestimated just how racist/sexist the latter group is. Hillary et al thought telling and showing them that Trump was a racist/sexist/etc was enough. Turns out they just didn't care and voted for Trump anyway.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

I'd agree if Priebus leaves this year it's a sign that the end is nigh. Same with Conway. They're the only sane people in his ear daily apparently. No I don't take anything Conway says in public at face value. She's smart and knows what Trump is, pushes back in private according to some BTS reports that have been published, etc.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Making inroads with Republican voters is not mutually exclusive with winning Midwestern working class voters. You can do both.

Mostly, the Democrats underestimated just how racist/sexist the latter group is. Hillary et al thought telling and showing them that Trump was a racist/sexist/etc was enough. Turns out they just didn't care and voted for Trump anyway.

Let's not forget the two decade long smear machine targeted against an established politician versus an insurgent outsider populist.

I mean, the odds were more stacked against Hillary than any of us saw. Rose-tinted glasses and all that.

 

[UberTag]

Basically Hillary going full attack mode on Republicans. I dont think attacking Republicans would have garnered any millenial votes for Hillary. The problems millenials had with with her were not related to her being soft on Republicans, but because she was toxified with her record on Iraq, her paid speeches, etc. There was no way for her to scrub that from her record to appease the millenials.

Once again, we need to thank the Breitbarts of the world for their relentless assault on her reputation.

For those of you who haven't watched it yet, here's a link to NYC Mayor de Blasio's press conference from earlier this afternoon.

The highlight for me...

50:29

"There has been an attempt to demonize immigrants across the board. That's what's happening here. And the vast majority - even of the undocumented - are law-abiding people. And that's not pointed out in this discussion. The first words out of his mouth were his characterization of Mexicans as rapists and criminals.

So this is not even close. This has been a very systematic - and this is where - Steve Bannon is behind this 100% - this has been a systematic effort to demonize people of color and immigrants. And it's playing out today."

 

[PKrockin]

Making inroads with Republican voters is not mutually exclusive with winning Midwestern working class voters. You can do both.

Mostly, the Democrats underestimated just how racist/sexist the latter group is. Hillary et al thought telling and showing them that Trump was a racist/sexist/etc was enough. Turns out they just didn't care and voted for Trump anyway.

People just want to be told that daddy's going to pull some strings and singlehandedly turn back time and restore their shitty, dying industry/community to how it was 30 years ago.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Basically Hillary going full attack mode on Republicans. I dont think attacking Republicans would have garnered any millenial votes for Hillary. The problems millenials had with with her were not related to her being soft on Republicans, but because she was toxified with her record on Iraq, her paid speeches, etc. There was no way for her to scrub that from her record to appease the millenials.

Eh, maybe, but in an election where this was lost on margins I don't think quoting Ronald Reagan in the DNC is the best way to help the case that you're actually a real progressive.

Making inroads with Republican voters is not mutually exclusive with winning Midwestern working class voters. You can do both.

Mostly, the Democrats underestimated just how racist/sexist the latter group is. Hillary et al thought telling and showing them that Trump was a racist/sexist/etc was enough. Turns out they just didn't care and voted for Trump anyway.

I actually 100% don't think it's true that you can do both, at least in worthwhile numbers. The "America is already great" messaging from the DNC is great if you're a well-off college educated subrurbanite but is terrible messaging to people in communities that have been dying for decades, especially when your husband signed the trade deal that devastated them. When your community is riddled with drug abuse and for the first time your children have worse opportunities than their parents, the type of rhetoric used by Hillary to try and make inroads to the Republican subrurbanites comes across as pretty tone deaf.

The whole "immigration was the number one issue in these regions" thing gets pointed out a lot but it's understandable that it's perceived that way when one side uses it as the scapegoat for destitution of these communities while the other side says that everything is fine. In 2012, the issue that Obama killed Romney on in these areas was health care, but well-off suburbanites probably have jobs that provide good health care. Where is the messaging on that?

Edit: this isn't to say that racism doesn't exist in these communities, it totally does, but I'm skeptical that it exists to a degree that's different than the white subrubanites or even white urban folks. Maybe I'm wrong here. I don't want to try and brush off racism or make it seem unimportant.

 

[Evening Musuko]

Hillary performed well with Republican suburbanites in Republican-leaning areas of the Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Phoenix metro. Dems will need to capitalize on that in 2020.

Here's an example. Hillary won Ft. Bend County here in the Houston area. That place has been Republican as far as I remember, but she beat him by over 17,000 votes.

The thing is, pretty much all the down ticket republicans won so it was probably an anti-Trump vote. If she won, I highly doubt she would win again against someone who isn't Trump. I could see a Democrat winning again in 2020, but unless the GOP becomes so toxic to Republican voters in the next couple of years, I can't really see the same thing happening to the down ticket races.

I should also mention, that it's a very affluent suburban area, which makes it lean Republican, but it's also become very diverse in recent years. Lots of immigrants have made it their home.

 

[Mirand]

These latest stories just highlight one unique aspect of Trump's brand of authoritarianism: He. Is. So. Fucking. Dumb. And. Incompetent.

We're going to get lashed at random out of sheer spite but there can't be a true Master Plan when he's this vapid. Unless Bannon is the true string puller.

 

[metalslimer]

These latest stories just highlight one unique aspect of Trump's brand of authoritarianism: He. Is. So. Fucking. Dumb. And. Incompetent.

We're going to get lashed at random out of sheer spite but there can't be a true Master Plan when he's this vapid. Unless Bannon is the true string puller.

Considering what executive orders he's working on it has Bannon all over it, but notice his name will never get mentioned by the administration. He isn't in the press and seems content in the shadows

 

[UberTag]

Considering what executive orders he's working on it has Bannon all over it, but notice his name will never get mentioned by the administration. He isn't in the press and seems content in the shadows

Thankfully the mayor of New York City smells a rat and I suspect the other major cities/states that spoke out today do as well.

 

[funkystudent]

Now sure I would believe those tweets just yet.

I guess wait and see what Priebus does.

 

[Toxi]

I feel like Trump is going to make us all experience the aging his new job brings.

 

[VendettaRed07]

I'd agree if Priebus leaves this year it's a sign that the end is nigh. Same with Conway. They're the only sane people in his ear daily apparently. No I don't take anything Conway says in public at face value. She's smart and knows what Trump is, pushes back in private according to some BTS reports that have been published, etc.

Priebus leaving would be a bad sign. But it is 100% over for Trump if Conway is gone. He would not have won the election without her and she is far and away his best asset and the only person who can actually somewhat reasonably defend his insanity. She's irreplaceable.

 

[NandoGip]

If priebus leaves wouldn't that mean trump doesn't have as much support behind the scenes as how it looks. Higher likelihood of impeachment given a good reason?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I feel like Trump is going to make us all experience the aging his new job brings.

He'll be running the country and running for re-election at 74

And he sleeps three hours a day!

 

[Teggy]

Among the many protest marches being planned in Washington, there will be the scientist march, the Tax Day march, and...the million Juggalo march, hell yeah!

 

[Chumley]

I'd agree if Priebus leaves this year it's a sign that the end is nigh. Same with Conway. They're the only sane people in his ear daily apparently. No I don't take anything Conway says in public at face value. She's smart and knows what Trump is, pushes back in private according to some BTS reports that have been published, etc.

Trump will never, ever, ever voluntarily step down and if he's impeached he will rally his 30 million faithful followers to cause even more chaos and division. I also just don't think the GOP will ever impeach him no matter what he does for that reason alone, that they're terrified of losing everything if Trump turns his base against them. Approval rating doesn't mean anything to them anymore because they've all bought into the "fake news" bullshit that the numbers are all lies.

The only way he exits the Presidency on anything resembling a good or graceful note is by passing away in his sleep.

 

[Toxi]

Among the many protest marches being planned in Washington, there will be the scientist march, the Tax Day march, and...the million Juggalo march, hell yeah!

Trump is literally so bad he united scientists and juggalos.

 

[benicillin]

Trump will never, ever, ever voluntarily step down and if he's impeached he will rally his 30 million faithful followers to cause even more chaos and division. I also just don't think the GOP will ever impeach him no matter what he does for that reason alone, that they're terrified of losing everything if Trump turns his base against them. Approval rating doesn't mean anything to them anymore because they've all bought into the "fake news" bullshit that the numbers are all lies.

The only way he exits the Presidency on anything resembling a good or graceful note is by passing away in his sleep.

Is Trumps base really all that big a deal to the GOP? Republicans always come home and I always got the impression that the diehards weren't politically active outside of being there just for Trump.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Is Trumps base really all that big a deal to the GOP? Republicans always come home and I always got the impression that the diehards weren't politically active outside of being there just for Trump.

This. His approval ratings are low with the majority of the GOP base as well. The die-hards are a small contingent and most of the base, particularly the white suburbanites and college educated just held their noses and hoped.

 

[SenorArdilla]

Someone needs to drag out Bannon.

 

[royalan]

Is Trumps base really all that big a deal to the GOP? Republicans always come home and I always got the impression that the diehards weren't politically active outside of being there just for Trump.

Trump's diehard base is mostly comprised of the far right Republicans who have been waiting all this time for a True Conservative who would "tell it like it is" and return America to greatness whiteness greatness whiteness.

Unfortunately, these are the people who vote in primaries.

 

[Teggy]

Trump is literally so bad he united scientists and juggalos.

It's funny, but the Juggalo thing does actually predate Trump. They are marching because they were labeled a gang by the FBI a while back.

 

[Teggy]

Someone needs to drag out Bannon.

I'm just waiting for him to try and sneak some anti-semitic stuff in. He's probably feeling really confident right now.

 

[Toxi]

This. His approval ratings are low with the majority of the GOP base as well. The die-hards are a small contingent and most of the base, particularly the white suburbanites and college educated just held their noses and hoped.

Being a college educated Trump voter should be the ultimate badge of shame.

 

[UberTag]

Trump will never, ever, ever voluntarily step down and if he's impeached he will rally his 30 million faithful followers to cause even more chaos and division. I also just don't think the GOP will ever impeach him no matter what he does for that reason alone, that they're terrified of losing everything if Trump turns his base against them. Approval rating doesn't mean anything to them anymore because they've all bought into the "fake news" bullshit that the numbers are all lies.

Trump's diehard base is mostly comprised of the far right Republicans who have been waiting all this time for a True Conservative who would "tell it like it is" and return America to greatness whiteness greatness whiteness.

Unfortunately, these are the people who vote in primaries.

Is it really Trump's base, though? Because I think it's more Bannon's base than Trump's. These people believe whatever their media outlets tell them. If they were told by Breitbart that Trump was the devil and to worship Pence, I believe they'd rationalize it in their heads just like they do everything else.

The right-wing media is literally their church and it will remain their sole source of gospel and belief whether Trump remains in the White House or not. These people only care about being on the winning side. They won't reject the Republicans if they're still the unquestioned majority.

 

[Cybit]

DONT TRY TO SEPARATE TRUMP FROM THE GOP. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...ocus_groups_reveal_clinton_s_big_blunder.html

It backfired on the Clinton campaign. You have to lump them all together.

There's a difference between campaign strategy (where once you saw the race tightening, you knew that people were coming home) and "I have zero actual leverage" legislative strategy.

Frankly, Schumer doesn't have a choice besides to try to pick off GOP senators and Trump from each other in order to prevent some of the madness that comes our way. They can do enough via budget reconciliation that either Schumer holds his principles and they proceed to do everything they ever dreamed of unimpeded, or they maybe hope they can get the notoriously thin-skinned and combustible Trump to go off on GOP members. He has zero leverage.

Based on the current voter roll data - we are seeing that a) young minority voters didn't show up across the board and b) white voters came out in force (and a ton voted for Clinton, enough to make her probably the first dem nominee to win white college educated voters) - but they are all proportioned poorly in the wrong areas.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ayed-home-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

Of all voters who cast a ballot in the general election, 25 percent were black, Hispanic, Asian, or a member of another minority group. But those voters were 42 percent of those who didn’t vote. Drilling down a little further, black voters made up 11 percent of voters who cast a ballot and 19 percent who didn’t. This disparity really hurt Clinton because black voters (by 82 percentage points) and Hispanic voters (by 40 percentage points) overwhelmingly favored her, while white voters went for Trump by a 16-point margin in the SurveyMonkey poll.

More harmful for Clinton was which young voters stayed home: minorities. Among white voters, voters 18-29 years old made up 30 percent of voters who did not participate in the November election. Among young Hispanic voters, that climbs to 43 percent. Among young black voters, it was an even higher 46 percent. That generally matches the findings of the voter data released in some Southern states showing that young black voters were especially likely to stay home in this election. Younger black voters were far more likely to support Bernie Sanders in the primary, suggesting that there simply was not the enthusiasm for Clinton’s candidacy as there was for Obama’s in 2012. Clinton’s favorable rating, for instance, was about 10 percentage points lower among the youngest black voters compared to the oldest black voters in the SurveyMonkey poll.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Being a college educated Trump voter should be the ultimate badge of shame.

The few I know aren't proud, but they came home, as Republicans are wont to do.

They're the only people on my FB staying absolutely silent on politics right now. Just, covering until the storm passes.

 

[BBboy20]

Warren voted yes for Carson........

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Warren voted yes for Carson........

She made a statement regarding it:

"Yes, I adamantly disagree with many of the outrageous things that Dr. Carson said during his presidential campaign," the Massachusetts Democrat wrote on Facebook. "Yes, he is not the nominee I wanted. But 'the nominee I wanted' is not the test."

Warren said that Carson "made good, detailed promises" in responses to written questions she posed on a variety of housing policy issues, though she acknowledged that "I don't know" if the conservative former brain surgeon can be trusted to follow through on those commitments.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/elizabeth-warren-ben-carson-234185

It's a case of give an inch to take two. Save the major resistance for the big positions. Playing the long game. Which is what the American left needs to focus on, lest we stay marginalized at the local level and desperately struggling for federal seats.

 

[Abinash117]

Trump has said to have competing forces in his team like he did his companies. Priebus vs Bannon. One of them is going to win out. I think it might be Priebus that will ultimately lose though. However, if Priebus loses the GOP will have less of a link to the WH and more will follow if Priebus resigns if it is true that he is the one trying to keep things gather. Additionally, the other more senior politicians and the anti-establishment none folks will end up more conflicted as well. Anyone people here and else were,that would consider the more sane administration members will end up resigning.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Just a reminder

Steve Bannon has no regrets.

The ex-Breitbart executive, who serves as Trump's chief strategist for the new administration, told The Hollywood Reporter that "darkness is good."

"Dick Cheney. Darth Vader. Satan. That's power. It only helps us when they (liberals) get it wrong. When they're blind to who we are and what we're doing," he said in an interview published Friday, his first outside of Breitbart since the election.

 

[Toxi]

Just a reminder

I miss the days when the leaders of the right were just crazy and not shit-smelling sociopaths.

 

[Mr.Mike]

Andrew Coyne: Donald Trump’s fixation on trade surpluses is sheer nonsense

 

[badrang]

Andrew Coyne: Donald Trump’s fixation on trade surpluses is sheer nonsense

How can one man be so wrong about seemingly everything? It's truly baffling.

 

[Buzzman]

Dems are spineless fucking cowards. Jesus christ. Burn it all down.

https://twitter.com/rickperlstein/status/824333043179655170

 

[More_Badass]

Dems are spineless fucking cowards. Jesus christ. Burn it all down.

https://twitter.com/rickperlstein/status/824333043179655170

We're fucked. In the face of all this, how can you even think like that? Moral high road versus the country and the world

 

[benicillin]

Dems are spineless fucking cowards. Jesus christ. Burn it all down.

https://twitter.com/rickperlstein/status/824333043179655170

i don't want to be one of those people that wants to primary dems when we're in such an awful position because I know it's bad but i am watching them very, very closely.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

All these dems saying they will stand for rights but want to find ways to work with Trump. What is the tipping point? When does the canary die and it becomes too reprehensible to work with Trump on anything?

I'm more inclined to believe that it is empty talk that they will stand for civil rights.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Dems are spineless fucking cowards. Jesus christ. Burn it all down.

https://twitter.com/rickperlstein/status/824333043179655170

Pretty sure they can't obstruct everything because they literally can't obstruct everything. Math is inconvenient that way.

On an unrelated note, but since Don Lemon was mentioned earlier I just thought I'd share this old gem that was just posted in OT for some laughs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpVd7k1Uw6A

"Even a small black hole would suck in our entire universe." Lol.

 

[Nelo Ice]

Dems are spineless fucking cowards. Jesus christ. Burn it all down.

https://twitter.com/rickperlstein/status/824333043179655170

O fuck this shit. When they go lower we go lower.

 

[sphagnum]

i don't want to be one of those people that wants to primary dems when we're in such an awful position because I know it's bad but i am watching them very, very closely.

Let the hate flow through you.

 

[Pixieking]

She made a statement regarding it:

"Yes, I adamantly disagree with many of the outrageous things that Dr. Carson said during his presidential campaign," the Massachusetts Democrat wrote on Facebook. "Yes, he is not the nominee I wanted. But 'the nominee I wanted' is not the test."

Warren said that Carson "made good, detailed promises" in responses to written questions she posed on a variety of housing policy issues, though she acknowledged that "I don't know" if the conservative former brain surgeon can be trusted to follow through on those commitments.

To be fair, this is an issue all of Trump's nominees have. They're all as sociopathic as each-other, and would no doubt gut their best friend and sell their organs if they needed/wanted to.

It amuses me (and by amuse, I mean in the purest schadenfreude manner) that dumb-ass millennials couldn't cope with voting for a career politician, so instead allowed people with literally no scruples whatsoever to be in positions of power. The naivete is staggering.

On the plus side, time-delay from sow-to-reap is fascinatingly short. I wonder how bad the non-voters and third-party voters feel right now? Because they're only going to feel worse (assuming they feel anything at all).

Trump has said to have competing forces in his team like he did his companies. Priebus vs Bannon. One of them is going to win out. I think it might be Priebus that will ultimately lose though. However, if Priebus loses the GOP will have less of a link to the WH and more will follow if Priebus resigns if it is true that he is the one trying to keep things gather. Additionally, the other more senior politicians and the anti-establishment none folks will end up more conflicted as well. Anyone people here and else were,that would consider the more sane administration members will end up resigning.

If that Politico piece is accurate, and Miller and Bannon are writing the EOs, Priebus has already lost, and the rest of the GOP aren't far behind. I genuinely think the Executive and GOP parts of the Legislative Branch are going to implode, and I'd be willing to bet it'll happen before Summer.

Hill Republicans want answers. On Wednesday, Trump gave them only more questions — and fresh headaches.

 

[aspiegamer]

Let's set these probabilities.

1. China invades and conquers Taiwan by 2018.
2. Trump bombs NK by 2018.
3. Trump proposes a land invasion of Mexico by 2018.
4. Trump proposes a land invasion of Russia by 2018.

You people going on 0 are being far too generous.

2%; 25% will threaten China about it in a tweet. If I were China I'd totally do it! Goes up to 10% by 2020 as China rapidly rises in power under Trump. I'd take a 4:1 bet that Trump will threaten China on Twitter in the next 2 years.
25%; 50% will threaten NK in a tweet.
1%; 25% he will in a Chicago-style "exaggerated" tweet.
0.0%* ...0 rounded but non-zero realistically since I refuse to rule anything out for Trump

I fear all these percentages are too low. If any one of them happens the odds on the rest skyrocket.

His Twitter bio sounds like a great plot to a shonen manga though.

Hah, yes.

Someone else might as well make a WH "leak" account. Those things were all totally nuts but not outside the realm of possibility with Trump. You could invent new shit every day that would be impossible to prove or disprove because the rulebook is out the window now.

 

[Maengun1]

I'm in this weird place now where it's like daily utter despair at the trump news du jour, "america is totally and completely fucked", etc., but then probably as a defense mechanism I start thinking of trump going down in a flurry of hyper-nixon scandals, pence getting nothing done, dem wave in 2018, etc.

lol

I'm a pessimist by nature but I think my brain is tryna throw me a bone here

 

[benicillin]

I'm in this weird place now where it's like daily utter despair at the trump news du jour, "america is totally and completely fucked", etc., but then probably as a defense mechanism I start thinking of trump going down in a flurry of hyper-nixon scandals, pence getting nothing done, dem wave in 2018, etc.

lol

I'm a pessimist by nature but I think my brain is tryna throw me a bone here

I mean there are no rules anymore so pretty much anything can happen. I guess that applies to good things, too.

 

[Buzzman]

Bitch about the Tea Party all you want, they won in the end.

 

[UberTag]

Bitch about the Tea Party all you want, they won in the end.

The Tea Party won.
Hitler won.
The Soviets won.

All in one fell swoop on November 8th in a single election outcome.
Amazing how that all fell into place.

 

[elvisaintdead]

Muir asked Trump about the NYT-obtained EO draft to reopen black site prisons:

DAVID MUIR: Let me ask you about a new report that you were poised to lift a ban on so-called CIA black sites of prisons around the world that have been used in the past. Is that true?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, I'll be talking about that in about two hours. So, you'll be there and you'll be able to see it for yourself.

DAVID MUIR: Are you gonna lift the ban?

PRESIDENT TRUMP: You're gonna see in about two hours.

But we didn't see in two hours, because the Homeland Security speech didn't mention this executive order specifically, or the black sites from what I could tell.

Meanwhile, before the speech Spicer responded to a question by stating that the EO draft was not a White House document, and that he didn't know where it came from.

So what the fuck is going on with this thing? Is it a document drafted before the inauguration, therefore it didn't technically come from the White House? But if that was the case, surely Spicer (or someone Spicer has access to) knows exactly where it came from. Also, why did Trump think he was going to talk about it at Homeland Security?

At a certain point, it becomes apparent that you're telling lies thanks to disorganization more than anything else. If they had figured out a consistent way to lie they might have been able to get more people to believe that the NYT report was bogus, but this is just ridiculous.

 

[Pixieking]

You people going on 0 are being far too generous.

2%; 25% will threaten China about it in a tweet. If I were China I'd totally do it! Goes up to 10% by 2020 as China rapidly rises in power under Trump. I'd take a 4:1 bet that Trump will threaten China on Twitter in the next 2 years.

Next 6 months is way more likely.

I wonder, if Trump and his core staffers (Conway, Bannon, Miller, Priebus) last 6 months, do the odds of them doing something crazy over the next 3 and a half years increase, or decrease?

Let's set these probabilities.

1. China invades and conquers Taiwan by 2018.
2. Trump bombs NK by 2018.
3. Trump proposes a land invasion of Mexico by 2018.
4. Trump proposes a land invasion of Russia by 2018.

1. Less than 10%. It's possible, but I think if we're projecting what China is going to do, then we should look at how they're handling pro-Democracy protests in Hong Kong as well. That'll be a good bellwether for their view of Taiwan. They could theoretically do something in Taiwan and push it as "Hong Kong dissidents are promoting democracy from Taiwan, and we're going all-in".

I still think it's highly unlikely though.

2. I wanna say less than 50% chance, but I can't actually be certain of that.

3. Trump proposes it: 40-odd-percent. It happening: 0%.

4. Trump proposes it: 80-odd-percent. It happening: Less than 10%. I think he'll crack under the people who say he's Putin's puppet, and say something crazy, then try his damnedest to actually do it.