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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.

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B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
This is comforting.
@MULawPoll
Sen. Tammy Baldwin viewed favorably by 40%, unfavorably by 35%. In Oct, it was 37% and 37%. #mulawpoll
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It said Trump's favorables are higher than than pre election but I wonder if those gains come from the WOW counties he underperformed in or elsewhere in the state.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Carpe Libertatem said:
Seems like the Bradley effect was pretty apparent (though not white vs non-white candidates like the original instance)

I wonder if there's been any analysis of polling for downballot candidates vs Trump and difference in accuracy between the two
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The MULaw poll that came out right before the election was Clinton+6 and Feingold+1. You could see Feingold's numbers tighten even as Hillary's stayed the same in general if you look at polling, he's mostly winning them but is getting much worse numbers than equivalent Hillary polls at the time even though his result was pretty close to the same.
 
B

Blader

Member
What's the likelihood of McConnell moving to nuke the filibuster for SCOTUS picks, but three Senate Republicans not agreeing to the rules change? I know Susan Collins has said a few weeks or months back that she would not be in favor of eliminating the filibuster.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
Hahaha CNN going HAM.

Well, if they're gonna get disrespected... Fuck it!

Blader said:
What's the likelihood of McConnell moving to nuke the filibuster for SCOTUS picks, but three Senate Republicans not agreeing to the rules change? I know Susan Collins has said a few weeks or months back that she would not be in favor of eliminating the filibuster.
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Man... That would be fucking wild. I personally don't see it. McConnell was also 'against it' a few months ago, for whatever that's worth.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Blader said:
What's the likelihood of McConnell moving to nuke the filibuster for SCOTUS picks, but three Senate Republicans not agreeing to the rules change? I know Susan Collins has said a few weeks or months back that she would not be in favor of eliminating the filibuster.
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My guess is that even if she "opposed" it and voted against it, it would be like DeVos where they'd make sure everyone else is in line so she can pretend she's a strong independent voice.
 
C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
The MULaw poll that came out right before the election was Clinton+6 and Feingold+1. You could see Feingold's numbers tighten even as Hillary's stayed the same in general if you look at polling, he's mostly winning them but is getting much worse numbers than equivalent Hillary polls at the time even though his result was pretty close to the same.
Click to expand...

Makes sense, people don't want to say they're voting for Trump but are just fine saying they'll vote for Johnson or other Republican (and then turn around and vote for Trump anyway). I'd also be curious to know if Hillary and Feingold had a similar % of the vote, but Trump and Johnson had a different amount

I'm looking forward to reading some of the eventual journal articles about this. Sucks to live through this, but it's certainly an interesting election to think about!
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
The MULaw poll that came out right before the election was Clinton+6 and Feingold+1. You could see Feingold's numbers tighten even as Hillary's stayed the same in general if you look at polling, he's mostly winning them but is getting much worse numbers than equivalent Hillary polls at the time even though his result was pretty close to the same.
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Yup.

Carpe Libertatem said:
Makes sense, people don't want to say they're voting for Trump but are just fine saying they'll vote for Johnson or other Republican (and then turn around and vote for Trump anyway). I'd also be curious to know if Hillary and Feingold had a similar % of the vote, but Trump and Johnson had a different amount

I'm looking forward to reading some of the eventual journal articles about this. Sucks to live through this, but it's certainly an interesting election to think about!
Click to expand...

Hillary: 1,382,536
Trump: 1,405,284

Feingold: 1,380,335
Johnson: 1,479,471

Feingold did worse than Hillary by a mere 2,000 votes, but Johnson overperformed Trump by 74,000 votes.
 
smokeymicpot

smokeymicpot

Beat EviLore at pool.
Vestal said:
FILLING OUT FORMS!!!

HAVE YOU SEEN ALL THESE FORMS!?!?!? THE BEST FORMS!!!
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4664b61763abd352808a84580bb2013d.jpg
 
F

Future PhaZe

Member
Blader said:
What's the likelihood of McConnell moving to nuke the filibuster for SCOTUS picks, but three Senate Republicans not agreeing to the rules change? I know Susan Collins has said a few weeks or months back that she would not be in favor of eliminating the filibuster.
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The idea that he might even consider not using it should be all the dems need to force the answer on this.

There's very little reason for them not do it. Almost no reason now.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
whyamihere said:
Yup.



Hillary: 1,382,536
Trump: 1,405,284

Feingold: 1,380,335
Johnson: 1,479,471

Feingold did worse than Hillary by a mere 2,000 votes, but Johnson overperformed Trump by 74,000 votes.
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Just to add to this, the geography of the votes is a bit different in the races. Feingold outperformed Hillary in western Wisconsin and in most of the Obama 2012 counties but did substantially worse in the WOW counties than she did. Since the biggest gap in polls probably came from college whites being off, those were probably the shy Trump voters who would register as Johnson voters if I had to guess?

This actually might be why there was such a discrepancy between the upper Midwestern states and Iowa/Ohio and why we ignored the troubling signs from the latter. IA/OH aren't as educated as the other states we underperformed in so polls would show Hillary making much larger gains with college whites than she did in reality, so we could see the sorts of shifts happening elsewhere but the college white shy Trump voter was the issue. I'm not sure, I'll have to look into this further.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
smokeymicpot said:
Nunes told @deirdrewalshcnn that he did NOT discuss his incidental collection findings today with Schiff, the ranking Dem

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/844610100811776001

Nunes needs to tell Schiff first before Trump.
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"Look, Trump, I'm not SAYING to get rid of this evidence...*wink wink*"

smokeymicpot said:
Something is up.

Getting the sense from committee members on both sides of the aisle that this Nunes presser caught everyone by surprise.

https://twitter.com/KatieBoWill/status/844611694722797568

It needs to be a independent investigation like now.
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Interesting responses to that tweet about how Nunes may be acting this way because his own wrongdoings may have been caught up in the collected info.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
Plinko said:
"Look, Trump, I'm not SAYING to get rid of this evidence...*wink wink*"



Interesting responses to that tweet about how Nunes may be acting this way because his own wrongdoings may have been caught up in the collected info.
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I thought it was conspiracy BS yesterday... But if the shoe fits.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
LOL Nunes said it was legal surveillance but he doesn't know if it was "right." Please.

Prediction: Before the end of this whole thing, Nunes and Chaffetz are implicated as complicit in some way.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
Seriously- What is the purpose of this briefing?

Why is he releasing information about what should be a confidential investigation?
 
T

teiresias

Member
Plinko said:
LOL Nunes said it was legal surveillance but he doesn't know if it was "right." Please.

Prediction: Before the end of this whole thing, Nunes and Chaffetz are implicated as complicit in some way.
Click to expand...

So he's questioning the entirety of the FISA process for this just because it happened to pick up Trump. Moronic.
 
D

DonShula

Member
Plinko said:
LOL Nunes said it was legal surveillance but he doesn't know if it was "right." Please.

Prediction: Before the end of this whole thing, Nunes and Chaffetz are implicated as complicit in some way.
Click to expand...

Nunes isnt cut out for this Russian double-agent stuff. He's out of his depth. He's the anti-Flynn.
 
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