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[Box of Kittens]

Seth Abramson once unskewed actual election results to claim Bernie was the real winner in Arizona (Hillary won by ~15 points). Until someone with actual credibility writes about it, it isn't even worth my time to look into anything he says.

 

[whyamihere]

I think Trump winning made some of you think you're political savants, and it's really funny to see some of you say "the bill will definitely pass" to "this is bad for Democrats".

We're all pundits, I suppose.

 

[Dan]

LMAO

Oh my god, where is this article?

 

[neurosisxeno]

For the love of god, someone point out that it took over a year for the ACA to become law. I'm sick of this "rammed down our throat" narrative.

"I never said repeal it and replace it within 64 days"

Didn't he say that at a bunch of his campaign rallies? "Day 1, repeal Obamacare".

 

[ErasureAcer]

Seth Abramson once unskewed actual election results to claim Bernie was the real winner in Arizona (Hillary won by ~15 points). Until someone with actual credibility writes about it, it isn't even worth my time to look into anything he says.

Arizona was voted fraud by the Government. People being taken off the rolls, party switches that were never authorized by the voter, very few polling locations. Where the fuck is the investigation or the uproar from Democrats? Democracy is dead.

 

[pigeon]

The reason it's okay when benji trolls PoliGAF is that there's actually some useful stuff to think about underneath all the trolling because it emerges relatively honestly from fundamental principles that are worth examining.

Just a tip to other people looking to troll PoliGAF.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Arizona was voted fraud by the Government. People being taken off the rolls, party switches that were never authorized by the voter, very few polling locations. Where the fuck is the investigation or the uproar from Democrats? Democracy is dead.

C'mon bruh.

 

[B-Dubs]

The reason it's okay when benji trolls PoliGAF is that there's actually some useful stuff to think about underneath all the trolling because it emerges relatively honestly from fundamental principles that are worth examining.

Just a tip to other people looking to troll PoliGAF.

Plus Benji has an encyclopedic knowledge of American History, which is always useful.

 

[Bronx-Man]

There's no way Ryan stays as Speaker, right?

 

[TylerD]

Honestly, this is not a great scenario for democrats.

All republicans will blame them. The right-wing media will join in the big lie. All their constituents will believe them, and the cycle will continue onward with full GOP control of government in 2018.

On a side note, how great was Pelosi and Obama for getting the ACA through? Unbelievable job. We may not see something like that again for a long, long time.

Well, they may have worked on it for a little longer than a week and change.

I was hoping they would have been stupid enough to go through with the vote. Trump probably got a little lesson in politics from Ryan this afternoon.

 

[kirblar]

I think Trump winning made some of you think you're political savants, and it's really funny to see some of you say "the bill will definitely pass" to "this is bad for Democrats".

We're all pundits, I suppose.

The major problem is that the "CLINTON WILL LOSE" "DOOM AND GLOOM" prognosticators were ignoring just how tiny those margins of victory were and the influence of the Comey letter. (in other words, all empirical data.)

They got "vindicated", but since they weren't basing it on anything data-based (Silver excepted, and even he had the clickbait trash model), they're left following their defeatist feelings to guide their predictions, which are backfiring when normal political trends take hold. Outsider whiners still can't govern. President still gets blamed for everything.

Trump isn't special, he's an accident.

 

[jtb]

What are the limits of tax reform the GOP can pass? Will it be tied to the reconciliation process?

 

[whyamihere]

Arizona was voted fraud by the Government. People being taken off the rolls, party switches that were never authorized by the voter, very few polling locations. Where the fuck is the investigation or the uproar from Democrats? Democracy is dead.

*kisses fingers*

 

[B-Dubs]

There's no way Ryan stays as Speaker, right?

I give him six months if they can't get tax reform through. He was sounding a lot like Boehner did six months before leaving.

 

[nature boy]

Oh my god, where is this article?

Can't find the article, here's the tweet: https://twitter.com/AliceOllstein/status/845373755136380929

 

[BoogieWoogie]

What are the limits of tax reform the GOP can pass? Will it be tied to the reconciliation process?

I can guaran-fucking-tee you they didn't even create a backup plan as they never thought the AHCA would fail.

 

[Officerrob]

There's no way Ryan stays as Speaker, right?

I see Bannon calling for his head

 

[pigeon]

What are the limits of tax reform the GOP can pass? Will it be tied to the reconciliation process?

They aren't gonna pass shit.

 

[sc0la]

Moar liek Freedom CuckUs

The reason it's okay when benji trolls PoliGAF is that there's actually some useful stuff to think about underneath all the trolling because it emerges relatively honestly from fundamental principles that are worth examining.

Just a tip to other people looking to troll PoliGAF.

but if they can't just drive by troll what's the fun?
fake edit: Knobody knew trolling could be so complicated!

 

[Box of Kittens]

The major problem is that the "CLINTON WILL LOSE" "DOOM AND GLOOM" prognosticators were ignoring just how tiny those margins of victory were and the influence of the Comey letter. (in other words, all empirical data.)

They got "vindicated", but since they weren't basing it on anything data-based (Silver excepted, and even he had the clickbait trash model), they're left following their defeatist feelings to guide their predictions, which are backfiring when normal political trends take hold. Outsider whiners still can't govern. President still gets blamed for everything.

Trump isn't special, he's an accident.

Also, if you predict you're going to lose every election, sometimes you'll be right. There's a lot of overlap between the people who said Trump would win and the people who said Romney would win.

It's kind of the flip side of the whole Dean Chambers/Bill Mitchell thing. Someone is always going to argue that the polls are wrong. Sometimes they are. That doesn't mean the person who said the polls were wrong had any actual insight.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

From Joe Barton (TX-6)

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Well, they may have worked on it for a little longer than a week and change.

Down our throats.

Rammed.

 

[chadskin]

Costa's full story:

President Trump called me on my cellphone on Friday afternoon at 3:31 p.m. At first I thought it was a reader with a complaint since it was a blocked number.

Instead, it was the president calling from the Oval Office. His voice was even, his tone muted. He did not bury the lede.

“Hello, Bob,” Trump began. “So, we just pulled it.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powe...82c3f6-10ce-11e7-9b0d-d27c98455440_story.html

 

[neurosisxeno]

They aren't gonna pass shit.

You don't have the votes, you don't have the votes.

Ah-hah-ha-ha-ha.

 

[ascii42]

"It's impoding! And soon, it's going to explode!"

Uh

Like a supernova I guess

 

[Plinko]

Oh, get tossed.

Mature response.

You were saying the thing would pass the House not that long ago. What happened to that confidence?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=231703806&postcount=918

Yeah, I don't see it happening. AARP, AMA, numerous conservative groups, and anyone with a heart and common sense are against this thing.

Passing this would pretty much guarantee a democratic takeover of the House for next election.

In any case, two things:
1.) Not how anything works. The President's party owns failures like this, fair or otherwise. Trying to shift it onto the other guys didn't work for Carter, won't work for Trump.
2.) Blame Democrats for what? Keeping people's healthcare in tact? Sounds pretty great to me! Putting this on the Democrats is so easy when they can spin it right back in their faces like that. Especially when it doesn't make sense to begin with since Republicans have the majorities, bungled it anyway, and them not getting blamed for such a failure goes against all manner of norms and is based on fuck all other than "Trump is different! He just is!"

Of course, the true diehards are going to believe him, but that was always going to be the case no matter what. Nobody else will be fooled, and to say otherwise is based on absolutely nothing and decades of evidence to the contrary and just a pure instance that Trump is different.

This whole "But the president gets all the blame!!!" stuff is hilarious because that's the way it worked with a republican Congress saying that all the time under a democratic president. You actually think the right-wing media (the biggest influence on politics in our country by far) and the GOP-controlled Congress are going to be repeatedly flooding the airwaves with, "Trump screwed this up?" Really? That's not happening. Trump won't take the blame for this. He is already passing it off onto democrats, and as stated earlier, we're 2 months into his presidency. Americans have SHORT memories. Lots and lots of things he can do to rally the base between now and election day.

Honestly, your a billion times worse with this shtick than Diablos ever was. Your just obnoxious with your pure insistence on worst-case-scenario based on nothing, and then sweeping it under the rug when nothing happens. Just stop.

Yes, "worst-case-scenario based on nothing." Sure thing. Just to be fair--Diablos gets a bad rap on here, but he was more correct about last election than the "YAS QUEEN" crew (most of which who took off after the election).

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

One of the dems should take the Hillary ACA additions to trump with the label of "Plan B".

 

[TylerD]

Ryan forgot to mention in his little speech that his party was still the opposition party regarding AHCA. WHAT UP FREEDOM CAUCUS!!!

 

[chadskin]

Knives are out on Breitbart:

 

[Slizeezyc]

One of the dems should take the Hillary ACA additions to trump with the label of "Plan B".

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Honestly, this is not a great scenario for democrats.

All republicans will blame them. The right-wing media will join in the big lie. All their constituents will believe them, and the cycle will continue onward with full GOP control of government in 2018.

On a side note, how great was Pelosi and Obama for getting the ACA through? Unbelievable job. We may not see something like that again for a long, long time.

Holy SHIT can we just pencil you in for the most pessimistic view of every event for the next four years? Maybe PM a mod about automatic posts scheduled for every political thread. Jesus Christ.

Everything is spinnable. Everything will be spun. That's how it always works. This is a colossal embarrassment anyway. A total Republican disaster. This isn't going to usher in a gigantic wave of Democrats in 2018 alone but there are like 998 scenarios out of a thousand that would have looked worse for Democrats. Are you waiting for Ryan or Trump to say "oh fuck we sure fucked this up"?

 

[Plinko]

So based on his previous career happenings, Paul Ryan will get kicked out as Speaker and then years down the road be installed as VP, right? He keeps falling upward, so I figure that's the next step.

Holy SHIT can we just pencil you in for the most pessimistic view of every event for the next four years? Maybe PM a mod about automatic posts scheduled for every political thread. Jesus Christ.

Everything is spinnable. Everything will be spun. That's how it always works. This is a colossal embarrassment anyway. A total Republican disaster. Are you waiting for Ryan or Trump to say "oh fuck we sure fucked this up"?

That's not pessimistic at all--it's realistic. It is how republicans play the game. No offense, but I'm not going to play the constant "Say what everyone wants to here so we all feel happy and great about life" garbage that many try to pull off. That's what democrats have tried to play for the last decade and it crushed them. If you have a problem, put me on ignore.

 

[Bronx-Man]

Knives are out on Breitbart:

Yeah, Bannon ain't happy about this.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Yes, "worst-case-scenario based on nothing." Sure thing. Just to be fair--Diablos gets a bad rap on here, but he was more correct about last election than the "YAS QUEEN" crew (most of which who took off after the election).

Diablos said Hillary would win PA. The term "diablosing" comes from at least the 2012 election.

(if I'm not wrong)

 

[kirblar]

So based on his previous career happenings, Paul Ryan will get kicked out as Speaker and then years down the road be installed as VP, right? He keeps falling upward, so I figure that's the next step.

The Speakership leads nowhere. This is it for him. Only one direction left to go.

 

[jtb]

can't wait to see what all the "take him seriously, not literally" apologists have to say about this wonderful "serious but not literal" turn of events

 

[aspiegamer]

Trump saying "we'll wait for it to explode" is so vindictive. "Hey, America, because we're incompetent idiots our plan is to deliberately let you suffer for the next ?? years until you learn your lesson!"

 

[ErasureAcer]

C'mon bruh.

Were you paying attention to Arizona? I'd love to see your reaction when you've been switched to a different party after waiting in line for 5 hours and thus can't vote for your candidate of choice in a primary. Shit was fraud.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Down our throats.

Rammed.

Trump used that narrative, and It blows my mind that nobody has called Republicans on their shit. They have spent 7 years claiming it was rammed down peoples throats, but the fact is, it took 6 months from when it was introduced in the House until it clear both chambers, and Obama signed it shortly after. Shit, they spent 3 months getting the House to agree on the Senate changes to the ACA. Compare that to the AHCA. The Republicans released the bill on March 6th, and wanted it to clear the House and Senate and be signed by April 15th. That's ramming a bill through. Not 6 months of pandering to the opposition party and allowing them to tear your bill apart.

Were you paying attention to Arizona. I'd love to see your reaction when you've been switched to a different party after waiting in line for 5 hours and thus can't vote for your candidate of choice in a primary. Shit was fraud.

Primaries are handled by the local wing of Parties. Your implication was that somehow the Government was complicit in these actions, and I seriously doubt Sanders would have miraculously closed an almost 20% gap. Even then, had he managed a win in Arizona, he still would have failed to secure the nomination by a long shot. Also funny thing about the reduced polling locations--that was a response the Democratic Party in a lot of states had to the historically low turnout of 2014. In the DNC leaks there was an e-mail where Hillary's staff complained about the lack of polling places during a few primaries, but you know lock her up or some shit.

 

[smokeymicpot]

Yeah, Bannon ain't happy about this.

Gonna be a shit show weekend.

 

[metalslimer]

The doom and gloom shit needs to stop.

Were you paying attention to Arizona? I'd love to see your reaction when you've been switched to a different party after waiting in line for 5 hours and thus can't vote for your candidate of choice in a primary. Shit was fraud

.

There was voter suppression of likely Hillary voters yes

 

[jmdajr]

Can't wait for Spicer presser.

"There is no plan B!"

 

[Ernest]

Repeal Obamacare - fail
Mexico paying for wall - fail
Muslim ban - fail
Drain the swamp - fail
Defeat ISIS in 30 days - fail

More failures in two months than most administrations have in two years.

And that's to say nothing of all the controversies, corruption and Russian collusion.

More wounds inflicted in two months than more administrations have had in two years, all of them self-inflicted.

I knew he'd be terrible, but he's even worse than I could have imagined. Thank god he hasn't had to deal with a real crisis yet, like a natural disaster or a war or something, because you know full well he'd fuck that up too.

 

[Owzers]

Trump saying "we'll wait for it to explode" is so vindictive. "Hey, America, because we're incompetent idiots our plan is to deliberately let you suffer for the next ?? years until you learn your lesson!"

I alone can fix this etc etc. it's going to be a tough sell that you're not responsible if he democrats go public with a plan to fix Obamacare.

 

[jmdajr]

You think the tax bill will pass?

Spoiler

nope

 

[Surfinn]

Can't wait for Spicer presser.

"There is no plan B!"

There is now.

 

[ErasureAcer]

There is now.

Ba-bum-tsh.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Trump and the GOP just took a giant L and people are talking about the 2016 Arizona Primary... sounds about right.

 

[Slizeezyc]

The doom and gloom shit needs to stop.

.

There was voter suppression of likely Hillary voters yes

Plus, it was 14-15 points either way. That would need voter corruption on the scale even some Repubs would be hard pressed to believe.

 

[platypotamus]

So based on his previous career happenings, Paul Ryan will get kicked out as Speaker and then years down the road be installed as VP, right? He keeps falling upward, so I figure that's the next step.

If he gets kicked out of the speakership, how will he take over when Trump/Pence get removed from office though :\