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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.

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B

BlastProcessing

Member
chadskin said:
All of Jared Kushner's tweets are gone: http://www.twitter.com/jaredkushner
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giphy.gif


My first guess is that some of his tweets had location metadata that he would rather people not notice.
 
smokeymicpot

smokeymicpot

Beat EviLore at pool.
Surfinn said:
Lol something tells me it won't matter (they'll find the tweets anyway) and that he just made himself look a lot less honest.

His lawyer honestly told him "delete the evidence"?
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I assume he is a smart guy so he wouldn't delete his twitter feed. Guess not.
 
A

Allard

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
There is no way you actually believe this when the GOP is only 3 senators up, their party is currently falling apart, and Trump is sitting at the mid 30s and falling.

No way. It would be unheard of. The Democrats would literally need to not even run people for the GOP to gain seats. 2018 is the Democrats' to lose, and they won't.
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Dont think you realize how many red state seats Dems have in 2018 compared to vulnerable seats the Republicans have in 2018. We have Dems up for reelection in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and most importantly West Virginia. Its going to be a massive uphill battle for Manchin, Donnelly, and Heitkamp, and the rest might get through by virtue of being publicly well recognized names (Sherod Brown, Claire McCaskill).

All but two senators on the Republican side have like +10 or more Generic Republican ballot margin of error, and those two senators are Heller in Nevada, and Flake in Arizona. At best we should hope the senate makeup stays the same after 2018.
 
G

Good Job Bob

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
There is no way you actually believe this when the GOP is only 3 senators up, their party is currently falling apart, and Trump is sitting at the mid 30s and falling. I don't care at all what the seats are on the map. The map for 2006 was bad for Democrats as well.

It would be unheard of. The Democrats would literally need to not even run people for the GOP to gain seats. 2018 is the Democrats' to lose, and they won't.
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2018 is nothing like 2006.

In 2006, Republicans had 17 seats up while the Democrats had 15. In 2018, the Republicans will have 9 seats up while the Democrats will have 23. It is not happening.
 
N

numble

Member
Manmademan said:
Someone on that twitter thread said pence can't cast a tiebreaker on a rules vote before the Senate.

Anyone know if that's accurate? If so Collins and murkowski alone would be enough
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Its not true because the rules procedure that underlies the nuclear option came from a Vice President (Nixon).
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
Good Job Bob said:
2018 is nothing like 2006.

In 2006, Republicans had 17 seats up while the Democrats had 15. In 2018 the Republicans have 9 seats up while the Democrats have 23. It is not happening.
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As of now, Dems have like 2 flippable seats on that map. Even if they have a great night, it'll be impossible to win the majority.
 
E

Extollere

Sucks at poetry
A part of me believes that there is definitely something big at the center of all this just waiting to fully unravel and completely do them in - in some news breaking world wide spectacle. I hope it happens, and I hope we see that day... for all the wrongdoing and injustice this administration is doing - and could continue to do.

Another part of me remains highly jaded and skeptical, and worries that even if such a thing exists, it will never come to the light of day in a way that completely unmasks Trump and his administration for what they are. I guess my biggest fear is that they skate by the skin of their teeth with all the clouds of suspicion hanging over them while they continue to do harm. Or at least try to. Needless worrying, I know. But god, I would love to see them sink so much.
 
B

Blader

Member
The Senate map looks bad for Dems in 2018 (and why I think we should be way more focused on winning House and governors races), but at the same time, I have a hard time imagining a nationwide Republican wave if the current Republican congress is an inept mess and their Republican president is polling at sub-40 percent month after month.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
pigeon said:
So which Dems do you think lose in 2018, then?
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Heitkamp is the most likely, Manchin, Donnelly and McCaskill are definitely at risk, though I'm fine with losing Manchin if we can take out Flake and Heller. I think Tester is relatively safe so long as trends don't go too poorly against Democrats, which seems unlikely. People are worried about Baldwin but her favorables are looking better than before and there doesn't seem to be a credible challenger other than possibly Walker, who I imagine opts to keep the governorship instead so I think she's okay. King also is sort of a risky thing since Maine was closeish but I think he'll be okay, we should run a Democrat in that race anyways because Maine has the Alternative Vote now so no worries about spoiler effect. I think everyone else should be fine unless something big happens.

Of course if Trump gets even more unpopular there's the outside chance of trying to win Cruz's seat and if he's rock bottom popularity I think we have a slim chance at Fischer and Corker's seats. But that's fantasy territory.
 
A

Ac30

Member
Blader said:
The Senate map looks bad for Dems in 2018 (and why I think we should be way more focused on winning House and governors races), but at the same time, I have a hard time imagining a nationwide Republican wave if the current Republican congress is an inept mess and their Republican president is polling at sub-40 percent month after month.
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The Democrats weren't the Demoncrats in 2008 though. The country has polarized a lot more since then
 
C

Con_Smith

Banned
Watched a segment on the Republican debate for GA-6 and old people Republicans are pissed shitcare didn't pass. I'm not sure they like all the winning guys. Also two candidates weren't invited. One of course was a brown man....
 
H

Holmes

Member
cooljeanius said:
Thoughts on how to read this tweet by my state's Democratic Party Chairman?

Some background: He and Steve Vaillancourt are both gay (but from opposite political parties) and lived together for several years until Vaillancourt kicked him out. Later Vaillancourt accused him of having possessed child pornography, but he never had any evidence. People speculate that they had been in a relationship that went sour and the accusations of child pornography were a form of personal revenge. So, with that context, now that Vaillancourt has died... is this tweet a sign that the 2 of them eventually made up and were reconciled? Or is it actually a stealth burn that implies that Steve and his mom are both in Hell?
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Wow, I did not know Vaillancourt died. I'm very surprised.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Heitkamp is the most likely, Manchin, Donnelly and McCaskill are definitely at risk, though I'm fine with losing Manchin if we can take out Flake and Heller. I think Tester is relatively safe so long as trends don't go too poorly against Democrats, which seems unlikely. People are worried about Baldwin but her favorables are looking better than before and there doesn't seem to be a credible challenger other than possibly Walker, who I imagine opts to keep the governorship instead so I think she's okay. King also is sort of a risky thing since Maine was closeish but I think he'll be okay, we should run a Democrat in that race anyways because Maine has the Alternative Vote now so no worries about spoiler effect. I think everyone else should be fine unless something big happens.

Of course if Trump gets even more unpopular there's the outside chance of trying to win Cruz's seat and if he's rock bottom popularity I think we have a slim chance at Fischer and Corker's seats. But that's fantasy territory.
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You're such a good new socialist poster you almost justify all the other terrible ones.

I think this analysis is mostly correct, although I think McCaskill is relatively safe -- she seems quite popular in her state. I don't really have strong feelings about King. Maine is weird about their independents and he's reliable with the Democrats, but sure, if there's a transferable vote, why not?

I think there's some danger for Cruz regardless of Trump's popularity just because everybody in the GOP hates him. There's a reason he's been working so hard to suck up to Trump.

Basically I think our focus is on protecting or replacing Heitkamp and Donnelly, and targeting Heller and Flake, who really should be vulnerable. Breaking even, especially given that it's a midterm year for the GOP, really doesn't seem implausible.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Even if the Dems hold every seat and beat Heller/Flake, Pence still has the tiebreaker vote.

The only way to retake the senate is some fantasy like beating the Zodiac Killer.
 
C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
Kusagari said:
Even if the Dems hold every seat and beat Heller/Flake, Pence still has the tiebreaker vote.

The only way to retake the senate is some fantasy like beating the Zodiac Killer.
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I actually don't know that beating Cruz is a fantasy. I'd bet on him being more vulnerable than we think. Hillary lost Texas by less than 10 points, remember.

I think Trump absolutely tries to primary him too.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Beating Cruz would be pretty similar to losing Feingold in 2010. Both come from states with long histories of supporting the incumbent's party and were won in the past presidential election by about 10 points. I think Texas was actually closer this year than Wisconsin was in 2008.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Beating Cruz would be pretty similar to losing Feingold in 2010. Both come from states with long histories of supporting the incumbent's party and were won in the past presidential election by about 10 points. I think Texas was actually closer this year than Wisconsin was in 2008.
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Yes. Also, Beto O'Rourke is very hot.
 
C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Beating Cruz would be pretty similar to losing Feingold in 2010. Both come from states with long histories of supporting the incumbent's party and were won in the past presidential election by about 10 points. I think Texas was actually closer this year than Wisconsin was in 2008.
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Yep, Obama won WI by 14. Cruz is totally beatable in a wave election, especially since no one really likes him.
 
G

GurgleBot20

Member
Maybe we should ignore all other races and throw all resources to make sure Ted Cruz loses? Sure we wouldn't have the senate, but isn't getting rid of Ted Cruz a huge victory itself?

I'm only about 10% serious.
 
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