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[chadskin]

Trump kinda distancing himself from Bannon a bit (bonus: CROOKED HILLARY): http://nypost.com/2017/04/11/trump-wont-definitively-say-he-still-backs-bannon/

 

[Holmes]

340 net votes, the 19 was a percentage.

I thought we were talking about Pawnee county!

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Problem for Dems again will be election day voting

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Problem for Dems again will be election day voting

If Democrats do well in special elections before midterms, it's a very good sign they'd do even better on election day.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Problem for Dems again will be election day voting

Nothing about this election is a problem for Dems.

 

[NeoXChaos]

If Democrats do well in special elections before midterms, it's a very good sign they'd do even better on election day.

yeah they did well in specials in 2009 too and went on to lose Congress the next election.

 

[mo60]

Harvey and Sedgwick county will be the key for democrats. If democrats end up winning them both by 15%+ they will win the special election.

 

[BlastProcessing]

If Democrats do well in special elections before midterms, it's a very good sign they'd do even better on election day.

I do believe Cartoon-Soldier is referencing early votes vs election day votes, not special elections vs midterm elections.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

yeah they did well in specials in 2009 too and went on to lose Congress the next election.

Wouldn't it be fair to say that the MA senate election was an omen of things to come?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Harvey and Sedgwick county will be the key for democrats. If democrats end up winning them both by 15%+ they will win the special election.

Doesn't look likely.

@Nate_Cohn
In done precincts, ev is 39% of total vote in Sedgwick
Estes running a net-27 pts better on eday.
If true, would mean Thompson+8 in Sedgwick

 

[Aaron Strife]

yeah they did well in specials in 2009 too and went on to lose Congress the next election.

We only held onto seats we already won though except for a fluke NY race and a fluke HI race which we lost.

 

[Teggy]

O'Reilly is taking a "preplanned vacation".

 

[Chumley]

O'Reilly is taking a "preplanned vacation".

wait what

 

[Grexeno]

O'Reilly is taking a "preplanned vacation".

That's he's never coming back from.

 

[mo60]

Doesn't look likely.

If I recall he needs around 10% in sedgwick to pull it off. 8% might be cutting it close. Thompson seems to be doing okay so far in summer and cowley county depsite him doing worse in rural areas.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

No election day results in for Sedgwick right?

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Doesn't look likely.

Enten says he has Thompson needing +9 in Sedgwick to win. Gonna be close. If it's >5 the GOP is going to be in panic mode

 

[Teggy]

wait what

Says he always takes a vacation this time of year, nothing to see here, etc. Also rumors that one of the Murdoch sons wants him gone.

 

[pigeon]

No election day results in for Sedgwick right?

Some are, and I'm reading they are about even.

It kind of looks like this might be a nailbiter. Could go to recount.

Keep in mind that Kansas's 4th district is, according to Dave Weigel/Cook PVI, the 78th most conservative congressional district in the country.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

O'Reilly is taking a "preplanned vacation".

Going to "Belize"

 

[kirblar]

Going to "Belize"

Did you mean to say "The Blaze?"

 

[Kevinroc]

Going to "Belize"

 

[Teggy]

Look out below! Hopes falling!

(((Harry Enten)))‏ @ForecasterEnten
Estes is really running up the score in some of these rural districts. If Thompson wants to win, needs a lot from Sedgwick.
9:20 PM · Apr 11, 2017

 

[mo60]

Seems like this whole special election is getting weirder then expected
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/851967571167371266

 

[Roland_Gunner]

(((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 1m1 minute ago
More
Estes is really running up the score in some of these rural districts. If Thompson wants to win, needs a lot from Sedgwick.

Anyone following Harry can see this is true. Rural Kansas is going to probably going to pull through. Still...

 

[Oblivion]

I'm wondering if I should go to the gym right now, or wait until the results come in.

edit:

Look out below! Hopes falling!

well that settles that

 

[mo60]

Look out below! Hopes falling!

Thompson also seems to be heavily performing the last democrat that ran for KS-4 in summer and cowley county

 

[Holmes]

Ah rural Kansas.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Seems like this whole special election is getting weirder then expected
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/851967571167371266

Special elections are always weird.

 

[Mackenzie 92]

rural people ruining it again

 

[Hellwarden]

Look out below! Hopes falling!

There never was much hope.

 

[Teggy]

Even if Estes wins by a single vote you know that Trump will illogically claim credit, ignoring it should have been a blowout.

 

[pigeon]

Being disappointed for not getting a crushing Democratic win in a county that went for Trump by 27 points might conceivably be unreasonable, guys.

 

[Boke1879]

Being disappointed for not getting a crushing Democratic win in a county that went for Trump by 27 points might conceivably be unreasonable, guys.

I'm not even expecting us to win this election. I just want to close the margins enough that the GOP sweat a bit. You know they are watching this.

 

[sc0la]

There never was much hope.

Only a fool's hope.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

There never was much hope.

Yeah just this weekend the goal was to get it in single digits.


Edit:

(((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account
@ForecasterEnten

Edwards (another small rural county) gives Estes a 57 point margin. Would need a 36 point margin on a uniform swing to win district-wide.

Seriously, fuck rural Kansas.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'm not even expecting us to win this election. I just want to close the margins enough that the GOP sweat a bit. You know they are watching this.

"We almost lost because we didn't pass AHCA! U-S-A! U-S-A!"

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Kansas is a state I'm obligated to root for because my super progressive grandparents are from there.

 

[pigeon]

I'm not even expecting us to win this election. I just want to close the margins enough that the GOP sweat a bit. You know they are watching this.

That's more or less guaranteed at this point.

 

[Mizerman]

Even if Estes wins by a single vote you know that Trump will illogically claim credit, ignoring it should have been a blowout.

Yeah, the fact that the GOP got scared enough to act should be a good thing.

 

[kess]

Sedgwick is like half the vote but only has two precincts in. This is probably going to go all night.

 

[Box of Kittens]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/851968587359068161

Either way, this will not be a GOP blowout. Pretty much any possible result will be consistent with a big swing against GOP nationally.

Thompson probably won't win, but this is really the important takeaway. A lot can happen between now and November 2018 and there are likely some Kansas-specific dynamics at play here, but a close result, regardless of winner, in this Republican of a district should terrify the GOP

 

[RustyNails]

poligaf, I'm having 2016 election night flashbacks

 

[Dominican Power]

Rachel is shitting on Sean Spicer so hard.

 

[Box of Kittens]

poligaf, I'm having 2016 election night flashbacks

If that's the case, your expectations for tonight may have been a tad on the unrealistic side.

 

[~Kinggi~]

poligaf, I'm having 2016 election night flashbacks

i was drunk and screaming at my tv when florida went and then i called my uncle and asked which country he going to ima go with him then i cried

 

[TheAbsolution]

Yeah, no way this is a blowout anymore. I'm happy with whatever the results end up being.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Sedgwick is like half the vote but only has two precincts in. This is probably going to go all night.

The longer the better.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Yeah, no way this is a blowout anymore. I'm happy with whatever the results end up being.

This was never going to be a blowout for either side. It was unreasonable to assume those gaudy early vote margins would resemble the final result.

 

[Holmes]

Anyway I'd wait until more of Sedgwick, Butler and Harvey come in.