I still don't think Democrats are going to come out in 2018.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.
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I still don't think Democrats are going to come out in 2018.
TheAbsolution
Member
Yeah, it's ovah. But a high single digits margin is very very telling.
Aaron Strife
Banned
NihonTiger90
Member
I don't think it will be a 20 point swing to the Dems, lol, but a 3-4 point swing across the board is certainly plausible now, and that's maybe enough for them to retake the House.
And throw Paul Ryan out of the House.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Election night tales?
I was at a party where we all thought it was a lock for Clinton. I knew right when she lost Florida that shit was bad. I was pretty fucking freaked out, chatting with friends at the party.
We had bought a Trump pinata and someone just started wailing on it while everyone was still watching the tv. Folks started seriously talking about their escape plans from the country. A friend next to me, who's gay, asked "Why do they hate us so much?" with tears welling up in her eyes. I think I slept for 15 minutes that night.
FUN TIMES.
I was at a party where we all thought it was a lock for Clinton. I knew right when she lost Florida that shit was bad. I was pretty fucking freaked out, chatting with friends at the party.
We had bought a Trump pinata and someone just started wailing on it while everyone was still watching the tv. Folks started seriously talking about their escape plans from the country. A friend next to me, who's gay, asked "Why do they hate us so much?" with tears welling up in her eyes. I think I slept for 15 minutes that night.
FUN TIMES.
I'm just tempering my expectations... I would love for Democrats to take back the House and Senate, but with Beauregard in the DoJ and Gorsuch in the SCOTUS, I worry about voting rights.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I mean that's fine, but the GOP wouldn't be worried about losing "a seat or two."
I'm also thoroughly unconvinced Dems "don't show up" in 2018. In every special election since Trump won Dems have turned out in big numbers. Either making GOP-held districts much more competitive or Dem seats even more solidly Dem.
Staying up on 2016 convinced me. My habit before (2008 and 2012) had been to turn on Adult Swim, turn off my computer, and ignore everything all night long. That will be my habit for every election until i go to my grave, even if i'm on the ballot one day.
I was at Hillary's concession party. She didn't show up.
Its right to worry over the DoJ, but I fail to see why gorsuch makes such a big difference when the guy he is replacing is Scalia. Basically his addition has not changed anything about the Supreme court that wasn't already a concern before he got added.
You thought 2004 was worse than 2000?
Right now we're dealing with some 4-4 decisions, which kick it back down to lower courts. I just worry that with him on the bench, we're looking at 5-4 decisions now.
Thaedolus
Member
How could it not be after Bush won with both popular and electoral votes even after his terrible first term?
This is the wrong comparison.
The question is what Gorsuch changed compared to a hypothetical court that contained Merrick Garland in Scalia's seat.
It never really felt in the bag to me and 2000 was just excruciating. Having the election called and then taken back...what's worse than that?
How come Bernie didn't win Kansas for us?
Box of Kittens
Banned
I wasn't personally invested in the 2000 election. I wasn't quite old enough to vote and was still forming my political identity (I grew up in a Republican household) and had more or less bought into the narrative that there wasn't much difference between the candidates. I followed election night with some degree of fascination of all the drama, with Florida being called then rescinded twice. But I wasn't really upset by the result.
2004, on the other hand, I had voted for Kerry and had bought into various arguments that he was going to win ("undecided voters break for the challenger") as well as having seen the leaked exit polls showing him winning, so I went into election night thinking we had it. Watching the results come in I could see numbers in most of the key states not looking like what we needed to win. It also didn't help that I was watching the results with a couple of people, one of whom was a conservative Republican friend-of-a-friend. The guy was super nice and didn't gloat or anything, but it was hard not to notice how happy he was about the results he was seeing.
2016 had the similarity to 2004 that fairly early I could see that the numbers in key states weren't looking good. Just, processing a Trump victory was even more difficult than processing a Bush re-election.
RustyNails
Member
2004 was unquestionably worse than 2000. Abu Ghraib prison scandal broke out during the election year too, and the war was going disastrously bad. No WMDs were found. It was shocking how dumb our country became in 2004 falling for STAY THE COURSE bullshit.
Roland_Gunner
Member
2000 was the first election I could vote in and the atmosphere was very different. Everyone except Paul Krugman thought Bush would really govern like a centrist Republican once his big tax cut got pushed through. Between that and the still ongoing dot com boom people were super complacent. Its hard to understand now.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I got drunk for the first time last election night and don't really remember much of it. Probably for the best.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I think they meant voting rights, specifically. The Court as it sits right now isn't any worse for us than recent midterm Courts, so it's not like some draconian crackdown is coming.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Bush ran a much more partisan campaign in 2004, but in 2000 he actually made a big deal about how he reached across the aisle in Texas. He didn't exactly run as a moderate, but "compassionate conservative" was a big part of his branding and probably helped differentiate him from some of the more negative perceptions of the GOP Congress.
I was to young to vote in 2004, but the number of people who thought the war was going wrong and said they were going to give him a chance to fix what he started astounded me.
Honestly, I can't stand to hear Allan Dershowitz anymore. On the Don Lemon show first he tried to push the line that Trump's action on Syria will make the entire "Russia thing" go away(because according to him it "proves unequivocally" that he is not Putin's puppet). And then he tried to praise Spicer for his apology of his Hitler remarks.
He really has a hard on for Trump.
He really has a hard on for Trump.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Valid point:
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Looks like it'll settle at about a 6 point win. It was fun while it lasted though.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
6 points has gotta be scaring the shit out of the GOP right now.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Honestly a huge part of what made election night on 2006 such a joy was the sense that people had finally figured out what a terrible president Bush was. Later than they should have, but it still felt good.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
It's a 20 point swing from just a few months ago. If that had happened to a Dem district, we'd be shitting our pants.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Who is even the RNC chair right now?
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Yoder after tonight
or Gianforte/Handel/Lean-R District Republican of Your Choice
or Gianforte/Handel/Lean-R District Republican of Your Choice
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
1 Trump Mar-a-Lago trip should be a unit of measurement for cost. the tomahawk missile raid cost approximately 11 Mar-A-Lago trips.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Yoder after tonight
Shit, Jenkins is probably worried too!
I thought this race was ~15 pt at most. Unbelievable result
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
oh christ Lefty twitter is already all in on "if they'd just actually tried we would have won this"
I really don't think we would have. This was what maximum enthusiasm and anger could do in Kansas. Now that bodes super well for the rest of the country, but this seat wasn't going to flip
I really don't think we would have. This was what maximum enthusiasm and anger could do in Kansas. Now that bodes super well for the rest of the country, but this seat wasn't going to flip
Zeus Molecules
illegal immigrants are stealing our air
If you make that into a some sort of graph/chart and it will go viral
The fact it was as close as it was is a miracle in itself. You can't ask for more than we got there.
ErasureAcer
Banned
No. No he didnt get that. 81,000-53,000 when all said and done is not Presidential turnout...in fact it's tens of thousands less.
whyamihere
Banned
A few points:
- Probably dumb to think the DCCC shouldn't have gotten involved. Even sending paid staffers would've helped. They should've shown some good will.
- It most likely wouldn't have made a difference given the ultimate margin.
- They need to make a huge investment in Quist starting tomorrow even as a mea culpa.
- I'm feeling much better about Ossoff.
- omg how much is Yoder shitting his pants right now.
- Probably dumb to think the DCCC shouldn't have gotten involved. Even sending paid staffers would've helped. They should've shown some good will.
- It most likely wouldn't have made a difference given the ultimate margin.
- They need to make a huge investment in Quist starting tomorrow even as a mea culpa.
- I'm feeling much better about Ossoff.
- omg how much is Yoder shitting his pants right now.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Basically my thoughts
whyamihere
Banned
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Thompson gonna run in 2018!!
he'll probably do worse tbh
whyamihere
Banned
Did he say that? Huh.
Jenkins won by like 28 points in the last congressional election. In 2018 if the GOP wins that congressional district they may win by only 2-4 points. I hope by then rural turnout is weaker for republicans.
And lol at republicans and trump supporters bragging about Estes winning by only 8 points.He did like 22 points worse then Pompeo. That must be embrassing for them.
Weirdly enough, I'm okay with people complaining about the DNC not being involved, it means people expect results now.
I hope this ends some of the infighting. A Bernie guy did much better than Teachout, etc. Candidates like this may be the key to turning mid-sized cities in rural states.
I hope this ends some of the infighting. A Bernie guy did much better than Teachout, etc. Candidates like this may be the key to turning mid-sized cities in rural states.
whyamihere
Banned
Might as well.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Also the other thing no one's talked about but hello Governor Brewer 2018
DorkLord54
Member
This. It's bloody Kansas, shit was always a bag for the GOP. The fact that it came down to the wire, however, is extremely telling of the unpopularity the GOP has garnered by allowing a bloviating idiot to be their face.
And hey look, the Democrats have a guy to contest this seat who is in an infinitely better position than whoever was in the running before now.
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