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[RustyNails]

If that's the case, your expectations for tonight may have been a tad on the unrealistic side.

I know it's a deep red district which had a snowball's chance of going blue. But the feeling is still the same!

 

[Roland_Gunner]

This was never going to be a blowout for either side. It was unreasonable to assume those gaudy early vote margins would resemble the final result.

I guess it depends on what you mean by a blowout. Estes could have won by 10 points, which is a lot and I'd still be okay with the result.

 

[TheAbsolution]

This was never going to be a blowout for either side. It was unreasonable to assume those gaudy early vote margins would resemble the final result.

I mean in the sense that GOP should've won this district easily. I'm happy if Thompson loses by a 5% margin.

 

[mo60]

4 counties still need to report. Will these four counties plus sedgwick and harvey be enough to give thompson the win.That is the question.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

lol there are some problems with Sedgwick County voting machines and counting

Spoiler

Putin strikes again!

 

[shem935]

4 counties still need to report. Will these four counties plus sedgwick and harvey be enough to give thompson the win.That is the question.

No

 

[Aaron Strife]

4 counties still need to report. Will these four counties plus sedgwick and harvey be enough to give thompson the win.That is the question.

Yes

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

lol there are some problems with Sedgwick County voting machines and counting

Spoiler

Putin strikes again!

So uh are voting machines a real thing?

I've only ever used scantron paper ballots, how do these machines work?

 

[shem935]

So uh are voting machines a real thing?

I've only ever used scantron paper ballots, how do these machines work?

Yes I voted on one. They are quite convenient.

 

[mo60]

Yes

If thompson gets pummeled in the remaining counties like 70-20 I don't think he will win.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

66% of the districts votes come from Sedgwick.

It literally hedges on what Thompson gets there.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

So uh are voting machines a real thing?

I've only ever used scantron paper ballots, how do these machines work?

Well, the tabulating machine at least

They do exist though. Just a touch screen, the ones I've used also print it physically or something too. Not sure what the tabulating process is like

 

[mo60]

Also it looks like thompson is only leading by 6.6 points in harvey now. And estes is leading by by 35 points in sumner county right now

 

[Box of Kittens]

Having voted both electronically and using paper ballots, the paper is just so much more fun. It's really satisfying to feed it into the machine.

 

[Poodlestrike]

66% of the districts votes come from Sedgwick.

It literally hedges on what Thompson gets there.

He's only up by 16 there, though, and he's getting blown out hugely in the rural counties.

This is still gonna be close, but I really don't think he's gonna win, y'all.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Neck and neck on the NYT tracker but there's still a lot of Sedwick left to count...

Well, the tabulating machine at least

They do exist though. Just a touch screen, the ones I've used also print it physically or something too. Not sure what the tabulating process is like

That's so weird! Maybe I'm a Luddite but I'd feel vaguely uncomfortable voting that way.

Having voted both electronically and using paper ballots, the paper is just so much more fun. It's really satisfying to feed it into the machine.

Woah you get to feed the paper ballot in?

 

[mo60]

He's only up by 16 there, though, and he's getting blown out hugely in the rural counties.

This is still gonna be close, but I really don't think he's gonna win, y'all.

He seems to be doing okay in cowley county.

 

[whyamihere]

Estes is going to win, but it had no business being this close.

 

[Kusagari]

Estes just took the lead.

 

[Mackenzie 92]

It looks like a lot of the podunks are already reporting 100% might be closer than we thought.

 

[Mizerman]

Estes is going to win, but it had no business being this close.

Yep. Should've been an easy win.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Neck and neck on the NYT tracker but there's still a lot of Sedwick left to count...

That's so weird! Maybe I'm a Luddite but I'd feel vaguely uncomfortable voting that way.

Woah you get to feed the paper ballot in?

You get the option for paper ballots if you want, too. I see old people use them all the time

 

[Box of Kittens]

Woah you get to feed the paper ballot in?

Yes. That was the case when I lived in Madison, and here in Chicago as well. Other places I've lived had some form of push a button/touch a screen to vote.

 

[Kusagari]

The urban/rural divide here is almost apoplectic for the GOP if you apply it to the GA race. Especially considering they were already extremely down on Trump to begin with.

 

[RastaMentality]

nothing will compare to 2016 election night. i'll remember like every moment vividly forever.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Woah you get to feed the paper ballot in?

In LA county it's a scantron that you feed to the ballot box that scans it right then.

 

[TheAbsolution]

(((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 2m2 minutes ago
Unless there's a shocking vote coming out of Sedgwick (who knows), Estes has got this.

Sounds like it's a wrap. Shouldn't be this close though which is good.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

nothing will compare to 2016 election night. i'll remember like every moment vividly forever.

I was feeling shitty after a bad day at work so skipped an election watching party. On the way home checked twitter at a stop light and Florida had flipped to Trump and the midwest was looking shaky. It was like being transported to the Twilight Zone.

 

[mo60]

The urban/rural divide here is almost apoplectic for the GOP if you apply it to the GA race. Especially considering they were already extremely down on Trump to begin with.

If the GOP can barely win this special election in favourable territory I don't think they can win GA-6 at this point especially since that district's rural-urban divide is not as extreme or nonexistant.

 

[Slacker]

I love that Trump is now distancing himself from Bannon, There was an episode of The West Wing where Bartlett was talking to the guy down the line of succession that stayed away from the SOTU in case the place got nuked. While telling him what to do in case that happened (appoint these positions, defcon 4, etc), Bartlett asks something like, "Do you have a best friend you would trust with your life? That's your Chief of Staff."

Trump's CoS is someone I can't imagine he even remotely likes. And Bannon is plainly just a repugnant person in general. It's almost a little sad, and it's obvious why Trump relies so heavily on his children and Jared. It doesn't seem like the dude has any real friends he can count on. I guess a lifetime of treating everyone around you like crap can do that do a fellow.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

If this is a 20 point swing, holy shit at GA-6. Ossoff probably has a good chance of taking 50+1 outright

 

[Box of Kittens]

nothing will compare to 2016 election night. i'll remember like every moment vividly forever.

I thought no election night could be worse than 2004. I was wrong.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Sedgewick starting to report in more, and the margin there's getting smaller, not larger. Sadly, while it does still look like it'll be within double digits, it won't be the <5% margin I was hoping for

 

[Mackenzie 92]

Why did Thompson's vote count go down in Sedgewick? Could swear he had 25k plus, now it's at 24k.

 

[Holmes]

It is what it is. At this time last week, no one expected it to even be under a 20% margin. Hopefully something similar is happening in districts across the country. Democrats just need to recruit strong candidates across the board.

 

[Doc Holliday]

nothing will compare to 2016 election night. i'll remember like every moment vividly forever.

I was having anniversary dinner with the wife, we met nov 8th 2008...talk about a crazy turn of events

 

[whyamihere]

I legit was saying last night there was no way this was a 1 point race. And yet!

Good job, Thompson.

 

[Poodlestrike]

It is what it is. At this time last week, no one expected it to even be under a 20% margin. Hopefully something similar is happening in districts across the country. Democrats just need to recruit strong candidates across the board.

Also, there's got to be something we can do with rural turnout. Driving down theirs, if not driving up ours. Idk. Without those ludicrous 75-25 splits in most rural counties this thing might've swung our way entirely.

 

[B-Dubs]

I legit was saying last night there was no way this was a 1 point race. And yet!

Good job, Thompson.

I don't think anyone thought it would get this close, not really.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

I know I shouldn't have gotten too excited but I just wanted to believe. This is still a great result and I hope it means Quist will soon become Congressman Quist.

 

[Mizerman]

I legit was saying last night there was no way this was a 1 point race. And yet!

Good job, Thompson.

Right? I thought this was gonna be a clean sweep, but damn.

 

[mo60]

I don't think anyone thought it would get this close, not really.

I don't think anyone thought Thompson would be winning Sedgwick county by the margin he is winning it by right now either.

 

[Four_Chamber]

Democrats need to use these special elections as a trial for 2018- candidates like Thompson are great for the majority of the country. Find candidates that fit each region and help them deliver a clear message. Even if Thompson loses, tonight should scare the bejeesus out of the GOP and give inspiration to Democrats.

 

[RastaMentality]

I was feeling shitty after a bad day at work so skipped an election watching party. On the way home checked twitter at a stop light and Florida had flipped to Trump and the midwest was looking shaky. It was like being transported to the Twilight Zone.

I got like 6 calls from people I all like instantly declined. I didn't call my mom for like three days because she'd been saying "I feel like trump's gonna win" for the past 3 months and i had been trying to be the voice of reason.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Decision Desk is calling it for Estes

Just need to see the margin now

 

[Nelo Ice]

I was feeling shitty after a bad day at work so skipped an election watching party. On the way home checked twitter at a stop light and Florida had flipped to Trump and the midwest was looking shaky. It was like being transported to the Twilight Zone.

O god I was calling friends and family in full meltdown. I was also at the local Democrats HQ and as soon as Florida flipped I went into full panic mode and I had to leave and go home since I knew right then that this was not gonna be a good night.

 

[NihonTiger90]

Decision Desk is calling it for Estes

Just need to see the margin now

It's going to be way closer than whatever it should have been.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I had classes to teach the day after the election, and I was feeling pretty stoic about the results until I had to excuse a queer student who was too distraught to handle it. Then I wrote the Clinton campaign thanking them for fighting for my students (and they just sent me a card thanking me for the letter).

 

[Wilsongt]

Based on them throwing big guns at this House elections, the GOP is scared. They know they might possibly be a little vulnerable to lose a couple of seats in 2018. Nothing to swing the majority back into the Dems favors, but maybe a seat or two.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Based on them throwing big guns at this House elections, the GOP is scared. They know they might possibly be a little vulnerable to lose a couple of seats in 2018. Nothing to swing the majority back into the Dems favors, but maybe a seat or two.

Swinging more than 20 points to the Democrats is more than "a seat or two."