Carpe Libertatem
Member
NYT or WaPo had an article with one Thompson supporter and one Estes supporter who both hated Brownback, both liked Trump, and both were planning on voting for Brewer
crazy shit happening in Kansas
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.
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NYT or WaPo had an article with one Thompson supporter and one Estes supporter who both hated Brownback, both liked Trump, and both were planning on voting for Brewer
crazy shit happening in Kansas
Box of Kittens
Banned
Kansas is interesting in that a lot of state politics really takes place between different factions of the Republican Party. Democratic success often depends on taking advantage of infighting between the factions.
The last time this district was close was in the 90's which is insane.
Four_Chamber
Member
Fantastic- Thompson seems like a great fit for the district. One GOP pollster I read said that if the election was in 2 weeks, Thompson probably would have won. With the midterm opposition party advantage and a good candidate, KS-04 should be on the map to flip which is pretty exciting.
Exciting times to see Democrats waking up after years of being ignored at the local level.
Thompson is in the rare position of being able to come off a close race undamaged and can improve in places that he was close to swinging in his direction. Obviously the dude is not the second coming of Lincoln but he can canvass the fuck out of the rural areas in the next two years and hang whatever happens under Trump on Estes.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
how fast can Thompson assemble a rifle while blindfolded
Whoa that dude has a family picture straight out of the Smokey Bear comic book
JesseEwiak
Member
2004 was bad because of leaked exit polls (before everyone figured out exit polls were shit) showing Kerry winning. Of course, in retrospect, Kerry winning probably means President McCain in '08, followed by god knows what after that.
RustyNails
Member
Excellent news. Now he has name recognition, KS04 in 2018 should be a toss up.
Aaron Strife
Banned
We probably would have been in for a string of one-termers with Obama breaking the curse.
2000 - Bush
2004 - Kerry
2008 - McCain
2012 - Obama
2016 - Obama wins again based on a good economy
Thompson probably won't win in 2018 either, but it's good to have a solid candidate anyway. Clearly you never know what can happen.
JesseEwiak
Member
Eh, the problem is the GOP forgets about their orthodoxy against Kensyian spending when their ass is on the line, there's no Tea Party with McCain in office so the GOP is slightly saner, the economy would be recovering, and unfortunately, McCain's a much more relatable guy than Romney.
Plus, with no '06 wave + '08 Obama campaign to move the party to the left, it's far more likely we're nominating Warner or Bayh in 2012 and losing with the hope of Obama finally running in 2016 against, wait for it....Hillary Clinton in the primary.
The GOP base was getting seriously radicalized from 2002 onwards, and Bush's more moderate stance after the 2006 elections drove the activist base bugfuck insane. A McCain against Kerry election would have had more Palin in it, not less.
The House Republican freshman class of 2006 and 2008 formed the nucleus of those voted against Hurricane Sandy relief, and they were elected before people started cosplaying as Benjamin Franklin.
lastflowers
Banned
Is that why? That's not how I was raised
whyamihere
Banned
So, hey, the Dem running in the SC-5 election is pretty legit. This video is good.
https://youtu.be/oGaJR9Wg9Gs
Even though he worked at
https://youtu.be/oGaJR9Wg9Gs
Even though he worked at
Goldman Sacks
neurosisxeno
Member
Not sure if that spelling is intentional or not...
whyamihere
Banned
Very.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Man the articles in two months about how he held the GOP to an 8-point win are going to be awesome.
RastaMentality
Banned
I was at home when i started to see Upshot shift over to Trump and my Students for Hillary friends called me saying RACHEL MADDOW IS ON THE VERGE OF TEARS AND FLORIDA IS UP IN THE AIR. Then all my friends started texting me about Florida. Everyone at the watch party started drinking profusely. I walked outside and started hearing yells by campus (UC Davis) and i thought the revolution was happening. It all felt sooo fake.
neurosisxeno
Member
Sean Spicer is not really good at his job huh?
I love that in his apology he thinks the comparison of Assad to Hitler was the problem, not the fact that he doesn't seem to understand what the Holocaust is. Holy shit, BBC is interviewing Tom DeFrank and apparently the White House staff sat down after the initial comment and didn't understand why people were pissed about it, even after someone explained to them. What a time to be alive...
I love that in his apology he thinks the comparison of Assad to Hitler was the problem, not the fact that he doesn't seem to understand what the Holocaust is. Holy shit, BBC is interviewing Tom DeFrank and apparently the White House staff sat down after the initial comment and didn't understand why people were pissed about it, even after someone explained to them. What a time to be alive...
Don't forget when he told the world that we should focus on Trump's plans to destabilize the region (Syria) directly after his apology
Electric Eye
Banned
These idiots have had their brains warped by fake news bullshit and conspiracies of course they are daft its pretty much their little alt-right universe crashing and burning into flames up against the real world. They are witnessing their fake universe cracking piece by piece right in front of them.
neurosisxeno
Member
It's literally an administration of internet trolls isn't it...
How old are you?
Electric Eye
Banned
Yep. Its fucking 4chan and reddit gamergaters riding their 24/7 FOX watching 70+ year old racist grandpa's coats. Its amazing.
shinra-bansho
Member
Clearly they should have run Jason Kander.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Jason Kander Rowling would have won the shit out of this.
neurosisxeno
Member
Kansas strikes me as a place that is hardline "Anti-Witch/Wizard".
cartoon_soldier
Member
My prediction for Kansas was pretty spot on.
Great result for Dems. Now it is really important to win GA-6 to keep the momentum. If we lose that, then it is hard to see a wave election in 2018.
This KS result is very similar to special election results before 1994 midterms where D barely held onto a seat and 2006 where Rs barely held onto a CA seat.
Great result for Dems. Now it is really important to win GA-6 to keep the momentum. If we lose that, then it is hard to see a wave election in 2018.
This KS result is very similar to special election results before 1994 midterms where D barely held onto a seat and 2006 where Rs barely held onto a CA seat.
I died of cerebral affection reading this post
cartoon_soldier
Member
Yep, we need to have people identified for districts that start campaigning today. No ads, no big rallies. Door to door canvassing.
benjipwns
Banned
Actually, after thinking about it for a minute, you could make the case that much of the popular mythology at the time surrounding the American Succession was not exactly truthful. What people were reading about say Lexington and Concord almost certainly was not what occurred but what the local papers of one position or another wanted to have occurred.
Actually, after thinking about it for another minute, you'd be hard pressed to find many wars that didn't come about because of some convenient massaging of events. Consider that people still talk about the existence of a "July Crisis" in 1914 even though we're almost rid of everyone alive at the time to comfort with the fiction.
Actually, after thinking about it for another minute, you'd be hard pressed to find many wars that didn't come about because of some convenient massaging of events. Consider that people still talk about the existence of a "July Crisis" in 1914 even though we're almost rid of everyone alive at the time to comfort with the fiction.
lastflowers
Banned
I will admit to being 1 of 31 who voted for Bill clinton in my classroom straw poll
edit: more pertinent: I attended local anti-war rallies as a youngster during the GWB era (still preaching to this 1/31 crowd in a planned suburb by exxon executives so its middle managers and employees could have affordable housing, so it was virtually useless)
edit2:
1 v 1 fox only, no items. i'll destorb u
benjipwns
Banned
I will admit to being 1 of 5 who voted to remand Bush v. Gore to the Florida Supreme Court with an understanding that no recount could be completed by the deadline. Although I did not join Bill's silly concurrence.
Frank refused to publish my dissenting opinion declaring the state to be illegitimate and all parties to be without standing.
Frank refused to publish my dissenting opinion declaring the state to be illegitimate and all parties to be without standing.
lastflowers
Banned
What was really dubious was MJ's deflection over into the lesser league.
neurosisxeno
Member
I expect nothing less of you benji.
Feel good story of the day; Crowd shouts "You Lie" at Joe Wilson.
cartoon_soldier
Member
My biggest worry about GA-6 is that Ossof is not the best D candidate if this goes to a runoff.
Estes was a bad candidate, in a state where the governor is even less popular than when he got re-elected.
Estes was a bad candidate, in a state where the governor is even less popular than when he got re-elected.
whyamihere
Banned
What?
I think that Ossoff's best chance is in the first round, but he's a fairly perfect fit for the district with no scandals.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I am looking at reasons why people who voted for Price vote for the D candidate vs. the R candidate.
Update on GA EV:
neurosisxeno
Member
But he knows, Nancy Pelosi *dramatic music*.
Aaron Strife
Banned
As we saw with Kansas though, people who are registered R aren't necessarily voting R. Thompson had a huge lead with early voters even though registered Rs slightly outnumbered Ds.
neurosisxeno
Member
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-social-security-tax-20170410-story.html
How has nobody pointed out how shitty of an idea this is to Trump?
How has nobody pointed out how shitty of an idea this is to Trump?
cartoon_soldier
Member
Another view of GA-6 EV.
That age gap. Come on young people, wake the fuck up.
That age gap. Come on young people, wake the fuck up.
Another view of GA-6 EV.
That age gap. Come on young people, wake the fuck up.
They did a lot better than those 95-year-old slackers.
Aaron Strife
Banned
They're too busy being unemployed and smoking pot to turn out.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
One of the reasons old people vote more is because people are strongly habit-forming creatures, and are much more likely to vote if they've done so before.
A very basic model that can demonstrate how useful this effect is: suppose you are 40% likely to vote if you didn't vote in the previous election, and 70% likely to vote if you did vote in the previous election. If you tried forecasting this forward...
In the first election, you are obviously 40% likely to vote.
In the second election, you are 40% likely to have a 70% voting chance and 60% likely to have a 40% voting chance, for a 52% voting chance.
In the third election, you are 52% likely to have a 70% voting chance and 48% likely to have a 40% voting chance, for a 55.6% voting chance.
In the fourth election, you are 55.6% likely to have a 70% voting chance and 44.4% likely to have a 40% voting chance, for a 56.8% voting chance...
and so on. I've made up the numbers, but you can see that as a cohort ages, they become more likely to vote, because they're more likely to have formed the voting habit (eventually, the example above will become asymptotic with a ~57.1% voting chance; it's not a very strong model but tbf I made the numbers up on the spot. Real models also have lag over extended periods and so on).
Getting young people out to vote is an investment. It won't pay off in the upcoming election, because it's hard to get young people to vote because they've not done it before and in the short-term, your political effort would have had more effect focusing on other demographics. It does pay off in about twenty years' time, though, because the average person's political opinions barely change throughout their lifetime - genuine converts are quite rare; and when it does pay off, it has a pretty big effect.
A very basic model that can demonstrate how useful this effect is: suppose you are 40% likely to vote if you didn't vote in the previous election, and 70% likely to vote if you did vote in the previous election. If you tried forecasting this forward...
In the first election, you are obviously 40% likely to vote.
In the second election, you are 40% likely to have a 70% voting chance and 60% likely to have a 40% voting chance, for a 52% voting chance.
In the third election, you are 52% likely to have a 70% voting chance and 48% likely to have a 40% voting chance, for a 55.6% voting chance.
In the fourth election, you are 55.6% likely to have a 70% voting chance and 44.4% likely to have a 40% voting chance, for a 56.8% voting chance...
and so on. I've made up the numbers, but you can see that as a cohort ages, they become more likely to vote, because they're more likely to have formed the voting habit (eventually, the example above will become asymptotic with a ~57.1% voting chance; it's not a very strong model but tbf I made the numbers up on the spot. Real models also have lag over extended periods and so on).
Getting young people out to vote is an investment. It won't pay off in the upcoming election, because it's hard to get young people to vote because they've not done it before and in the short-term, your political effort would have had more effect focusing on other demographics. It does pay off in about twenty years' time, though, because the average person's political opinions barely change throughout their lifetime - genuine converts are quite rare; and when it does pay off, it has a pretty big effect.
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