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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.

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O

Ogodei

Member
kirblar said:
Yeah, that seemed crazy off lol.

But it's still more than 7x the Coal Industry!
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I assume you'd create a 5-digit range number of federal government jobs in Medicare customer service and medical billing, so you give people from those capacities in health insurance companies top-level preference for the new government jobs (even above veterans, just for those specific new jobs in HHS).

The rest of them, you raise taxes on health insurance corporation profits to 100% for one year, and disperse the gains evenly to those who lose jobs.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Holmes said:
Early vote numbers for GA-06 are not based on party affiliation. If a third of voters there voted in the last Democratic primary with the rest in the Republican primary, it's crazy that "Democrats" are even ahead. Hillary received a good chunk of these same Republicans last November.
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Huh what? So who are Ds and Rs being reported exactly?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
This is fascinating, GA-6

@Nate_Cohn
The Dems have now officially matched the number of Dem primary voters from '14 early vote, though there are caveats I won't get into
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@Nate_Cohn
GOP mainly catching up with reliable voters--of which there are many left to vote.

C9QYBpeW0AAU_WT.jpg
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Teggy said:
Huh what? So who are Ds and Rs being reported exactly?
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D: people who voted in the 16 Dem primary

R: people who voted in the 16 R primary

I: everyone else

It's unreasonable to expect Dems to have an advantage going into eDay, but Ossoff most certainly will have an advantage.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Teggy said:
Huh what? So who are Ds and Rs being reported exactly?
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It's what party's ballot you took in the previous primary. In this district where many races have Republicans unopposed (hopefully this changes soon!), many voters just opt for the Republican ballot because those are the real races.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Also, Dems are missing a ton of their reliable voters because their early voting centers aren't really close to Dekalb. Means they might not be cannibalizing as much as Thompson did.

@Nate_Cohn
Election day turnout in heavily Dem Dekalb county, which is very underserved by early voting centers (red dots), will be important.

C9QZgZeXgAAHwjS.jpg
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T

Teggy

Member
Holmes said:
It's what party's ballot you took in the previous primary. In this district where many races have Republicans unopposed (hopefully this changes soon!), many voters just opt for the Republican ballot because those are the real races.
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Ah, I see.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
ugaboga232 said:
Bernie's plan tries to have it as a "free" healthcare. Devil is in the details.
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Does he have a new plan/bill? Or are we just referring to unrealistic election promises. Or the past bills.

From memory the election promise had a payroll tax with (legal) incidence shared 50/50. (The actual incidence would largely fall on the employee in all likelihood).

With the rest somehow funded through surtaxes on kev.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
Does he have a new plan/bill? Or are we just referring to unrealistic election promises. Or the past bills.

From memory the election promise had a payroll tax with (legal) incidence shared 50/50. (The actual incidence would largely fall on the employee in all likelihood).

With the rest somehow funded through surtaxes on kev.
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His campaign bill had half of the policy funded and the other half of the money was ignored.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Cohn says based on the EV/demos of the GA06 EV, Clinton would've won GA-6 by 18 (she lost by 2). Could be higher if some Rs vote D, which is what happened in KS04.

GOP will win eDay vote by a lot, so it just depends. Dems are doing much better getting their low propensity voters out, which could turn the electorate bluer than 2016.

The 18 number will probably come down a bit. But EV will probably be a higher % of the vote than in KS4.

As of now, it's at 40k and probably will be at 45-50k by Election Day. Probably won't be more than 100k-150k votes total given that it's a special (albeit a heavily fought one).
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Pryce said:
Flake is pretty unpopular right now. If things hold, it's a winnable seat. It all depends on Trump.

Arizona is weird in that you have large swaths of hardcore conservatives and seniors, but also three large Universities and a growing Hispanic population.
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It was also the fifth closest state that Trump won, after MI/PA/WI/FL. Closer than North Carolina even!
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Pryce said:
Flake is pretty unpopular right now. If things hold, it's a winnable seat. It all depends on Trump.

Arizona is weird in that you have large swaths of hardcore conservatives and seniors, but also three large Universities and a growing Hispanic population.
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It'll be interesting observing it flip from far-right wacko paradise to hippie utopia overnight.

lol jk, they still won't vote in the midterms
 
D

Diablos

Member
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal that appeared on Wednesday, Trump made a warning. If Democrats won’t talk repeal, the president said, Republicans might decide to cut off some subsidies now flowing to health insurers offering coverage through Obamacare’s exchanges.

“I don’t want people to get hurt,” Trump said, sounding a bit like a mobster describing a protection racket. “What I think should happen — and will happen — is the Democrats will start calling me and negotiating.”
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Man, fuck you.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Martin Fackler‏ @facklernyt

US has secretly warned Japan of possible military action vs North Korea, say Japanese media; Tokyo denies reports:
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Because they would confirm a report that they were secretly told something?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
So, I did some math.

The total vote in KS04 was 114k. Let's say, for sake of argument, it'll be 130k in GA06 and Ossoff will come into election day with 60% of the vote, which will be around 50k.

He'll need 65k+1 to win.

He'll get 30k from the EV, and need to make up 35k to cross 65k. Of the remaining 80k, he'll need to get 43% of that, which means he can afford to lose eDay by 14%, which seems... like it'll be close.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
A Serious Man said:
People pay attention to their healthcare. This idea that he can undercut Obamacare and point the finger at Dems will blow up in his face in the worst way.
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Yeah, Arkansas's rage alone would push Trump's numbers to the low 30s. It's a move that would actively fuck his base of support, which is currently keeping him above those disastrous numbers (and they're already really bad).
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Once again, people, the party of Lincoln:

The Raleigh News and Observer said Wednesday that Concord Republican Rep. Larry Pittman was responding to marriage equality supporters on social media after he introduced a bill to the state House urging the state the defy the U.S. Supreme Court ruling legalizing same-sex marriage for all 50 states.

A commenter told Pittman that the highest court in the land had decided the question and urged him to “get over it.”

Pittman responded, “And if Hitler had won, should the world just get over it? Lincoln was the same sort if tyrant, and personally responsible for the deaths of over 800,000 Americans in a war that was unnecessary and unconstitutional.”

“Another commenter asked Pittman to explain why he believes the Civil War, which resulted in the end of slavery, was ‘unnecessary,’” the Observer said. “He did not respond to the question on the Facebook page.”
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http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/rep...-was-a-tyrant-like-hitler-for-ending-slavery/
 
S

Slacker

Member
Oblivion said:
Once again, people, the party of Lincoln:



http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/rep...-was-a-tyrant-like-hitler-for-ending-slavery/
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Remember when Republicans just stayed quiet and did nothing and people kept electing them because abortion? They may want to give that strategy another look. This whole "trying to govern" thing really isn't their strong suit.

Although I guess you can kind of see his point. Hitler killing millions of people was bad. But a lady being able to visit another lady she's in a committed relationship with in the hospital is pretty bad too.

Do none of these idiots have anyone in their office they can run this stuff by? Just keep one non-Republican around and have them take a little look-see before making an absolute fool of yourself.

"Yeah I looked at your speech and I'm going to go ahead and say no to this Hitler bit. We just don't want to go there. And I'm a little worried that calling the civil war unnecessary is both racist and anti-America, so let's scrap that too. Ok, Hitler stuff gone, racist stuff out, and we're left with... just thanks for coming and good night everyone God bless America. I guess the Klan anthem will eat up a few minutes but we've got some work to do here."
 
A

A Serious Man

Member
Marvie_3 said:
Lets hope so.
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I think what we're learning is that all of the problems the Republican party had before the election (growing minority populations, sharp divides within the party, Paul Ryan conservatism not actually being popular) are still there and Trump is actually accelerating towards those crisis points.
 
W

wutwutwut

Member
A Serious Man said:
I think what we're learning is that all of the problems the Republican party had before the election (growing minority populations, sharp divides within the party, Paul Ryan conservatism not actually being popular) are still there and Trump is actually accelerating towards those crisis points.
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So the accelerationists were right all along
 
M

Maengun1

Member
The problem with this all being that the psycho hardline conservatives have already secured a new supreme court seat that could easily last into the 2050s and they have 3.75 more years to get 3 or 4 more.

I honestly wonder if we'll just head into a scenario where future liberal presidents just start ignoring the SC lol? I mean FDR failed to restructure it so I don't see that happening, but maybe we'll get the return of "now let him enforce it" only for good instead of evil.
 
S

SpaceCadetKeon

Banned
Maengun1 said:
The problem with this all being that the psycho hardline conservatives have already secured a new supreme court seat that could easily last into the 2050s and they have 3.75 more years to get 3 or 4 more.
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1.75 years if we can manage to get the Senate majority. And frankly, I don't see them dropping like flies in the span of 2 years.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Marvie_3 said:
Lets hope so.
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2018 - D House
2020 - D Pres, D Senate
2022 - Rs reclaim the House due to liberals either getting complacent and disillusioned in spite of an accomplished first two years

Upshot is if we pick up enough governorships and legislatures in key states we could have a neutral or even mildly favorable House battleground throughout the next decade. I firmly believe Obama would have had another two years of full Democratic control had the maps not changed so drastically between 2010 and 2012.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
SpaceCadetKeon said:
1.75 years if we can manage to get the Senate majority. And frankly, I don't see them dropping like flies in the span of 2 years.
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This is a real tall order, unfortunately. Real tough. We'd basically have to win every single viable pickup opportunity and successfully defend everyone.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
whyamihere said:
So, I did some math.

The total vote in KS04 was 114k. Let's say, for sake of argument, it'll be 130k in GA06 and Ossoff will come into election day with 60% of the vote, which will be around 50k.

He'll need 65k+1 to win.

He'll get 30k from the EV, and need to make up 35k to cross 65k. Of the remaining 80k, he'll need to get 43% of that, which means he can afford to lose eDay by 14%, which seems... like it'll be close.
Click to expand...

KS04 was actually the special election while GA-6 is a primary election next Tuesday. So turnout will be lower.

Right now estimate is that voters are approx. +18 Clinton in EV.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
KS04 was actually the special election while GA-6 is a primary election next Tuesday. So turnout will be lower.

Right now estimate is that voters are approx. +18 Clinton in EV.
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This primary works a little differently though. If Ossoff (or any candidate) clears the 50% benchmark, he wins outright.

Georgia and Louisiana both do this, even for general November elections. Top two vote-getters go to a run-off election, unless someone hits the 50% threshold. Obviously this doesn't apply to presidential elections though, but it does for House and Senate.
 
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