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PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.

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V

Veritigo_X

Member
kirblar said:
It's because he has a profile outside of VA.

I'm not loving the way in which local races are getting nationalized. (Ossoff getting attention is great, but is this going to be how everything is done from now on?)
Click to expand...

What's the problem with it? Excitement over these house races is how you get people to turn out. Also, having candidates with ample money and volunteers can only be a good thing.
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
kirblar said:
Not if they're a mismatch with the actual electorate.
Click to expand...

That seems like a problem that would work itself out in the primary. If this hypothetical candidate is so mismatched with the electorate they won't get local volunteers, people showing up to events, and ultimately votes.

Anyway, it doesn't seem like that's a problem so far so I don't think it's something to worry about now.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
"If you think back, Brian, to Henry Kissinger's famous triangulation in 1972, the opening to China: It was strengthening our relationship with China in order to leverage the ... Soviets, in many ways. ... Time after time in the last few days, we've seen very tough rhetoric by Rex Tillerson against the Russians ... So, a very tough line against Russia. A very soft, friendly, conciliatory line against China. ... I think Trump feels he's got an opening with China and really not much business to do with Putin at this time."
Click to expand...

Very interesting speculation from Nicholas Burns. Would be fascinating to see how Putin responds if Trump buddies up with China and leaves him in cold.

https://www.axios.com/operation-normal-trump-goes-al-2358875985.html
 
C

CrimzonSamurai

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Very interesting speculation from Nicholas Burns. Would be fascinating to see how Putin responds if Trump buddies up with China and leaves him in cold.

https://www.axios.com/operation-normal-trump-goes-al-2358875985.html
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Isn't that kind of what we've been doing this whole time, though? At least, economically speaking. I mean something truly incredible like a joint military operation in North Korea would rustle Vlad's jimmies but it's not like we can shift any flows of commerce.

I mean I'm not really up to date on Russia-China relations but hasn't there only been mild warming since the Sino-Soviet Split?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
I do not agree.

My opinion also won't matter if he's the only one running an actual campaign in the primary.
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I mean, he's polling better than Northam against Gillespie, so like, based on what?

Why are we taking a chance on Northam, a candidate no one really has any passion or drive for and polls worse against Gillespie?
 
S

sir_kevith

Member
Spicer seems completely out of the loop. I don't think he actually answered a single question today. He just said "I'll have to get back to you on that."

Doesn't seem like he's able to keep up with what's going on anymore because everything is going in different directions.
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
I mean, he's polling better than Northam against Gillespie, so like, based on what?

Why are we taking a chance on Northam, a candidate no one really has any passion or drive for and polls worse against Gillespie?
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People have passion and drive for VA governor candidates? o_O

Our elections are boring. We're the state that brought you Tim "superdad" Kaine.
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
If you don't think people should be passionate about your candidates, then that's probably a bad strategy.
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Yes, I think promising a bunch of shit to your easily dissuaded base who will only be disappointed and upset when it doesn't pass the GOP-controlled House is a bad long-term strategy.
 
R

radios shipping overview

Member
Lucky Forward said:
It's Obama's fault:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-drops-mother-of-all-bombs-in-afghanistan-marking-weapons-first-use/
Click to expand...

At the White House, President Trump called the mission “another very, very successful mission.” Asked if he personally authorized the strike, Mr. Trump said “everybody knows exactly what happened.”

“What I do is I authorize my military,” Mr. Trump said. “We have the greatest military in the world and they’ve done their job as usual. So, we have given them total authorization and that’s what they’re doing.”
Click to expand...

Soooooo he had nothing to do with it, but is happy to take credit.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
kirblar, can you articulate why you think Perriello sucks? What makes him a bad fit? Are his policies or stances completely unrealistic/divorced from reality? Does he have some bad/weird scandals under his belt? Like wouldn't a candidate that people are passionate about (and is good which is of course important) be the exact type of candidate you want in this climate?

EDIT: Isn't the Virgina State House + Senate also having elections this year? Won't they both trend blue or do y'all have a NC situation down there? Are Virginia Republicans crazy or more like New York Republicans?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
Yes, I think promising a bunch of shit to your easily dissuaded base who will only be disappointed and upset when it doesn't pass the GOP-controlled House is a bad long-term strategy.
Click to expand...

Not actually having a platform of something to fight for and negotiate based on is silly.

Northam is a non-entity who no one really knows despite having been elected statewide, inspires no real passion and energy from any base of supporters as seen by small $ fundraising, and polls worse against the Republican leader.

Why are we taking a chance on this piece of wood?
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
CrimzonSamurai said:
Isn't that kind of what we've been doing this whole time, though? At least, economically speaking. I mean something truly incredible like a joint military operation in North Korea would rustle Vlad's jimmies but it's not like we can shift any flows of commerce.

I mean I'm not really up to date on Russia-China relations but hasn't there only been mild warming since the Sino-Soviet Split?
Click to expand...

I guess this shows the limits to Putin's approach to re-establish Russia's influence through a combination of military power and cyber attacks. Obviously its had some big wins but at the end of the day economic power drives global influence.
 
K

Killa Sasa

Member
Abinash117 said:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-s...s-from-planned-parenthood-abortion-providers/






images
Click to expand...

I wonder if Ivanka was "complicit", by her definition or the real world definition.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
KS-02 is an open seat.

http://cjonline.com/news/local/stat...davis-initiates-campaign-rep-lynn-jenkins-2nd

Former Kansas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Paul Davis confirmed Thursday formation of an exploratory committee ahead of a campaign for the 2nd District congressional seat to be vacated by Republican U.S. Rep. Lynn Jenkins.

Davis said in an exclusive interview with The Topeka Capital-Journal that Kansans deserved representation from elected officials with the skills and inclination to work across partisan divides to improve federal policy on taxes, health care and other complex issues.

“Now, more than ever, we need good people who are going to go to Washington, D.C., and really represent the interests of the people that live in their district,” Davis said. “Too many elected officials – on both sides of the aisle – have forgotten how to work together to move our country forward.”

In 2014, Davis was defeated by Republican Gov. Sam Brownback in the campaign for governor. The 2nd District in eastern Kansas is not overwhelmingly Republican, but Davis carried the congressional district by 6 points in the race against Brownback.

Davis served six terms in the Kansas House and is employed in the private sector as an attorney in Lawrence. Over the course of his career, Davis said he’d become familiar with the district’s prominent agriculture, higher education and military interests.

He said the federal government’s necessary realignment of health care policy under Medicaid and overhaul the national tax code shouldn’t forsake middle- and low-income Kansans.

“It is heart wrenching to watch families worry about their economic stability,” Davis said. “It’s upsetting to stand by as special interests corrupt our system of government. It is discouraging to hear students worry about their futures. And it is infuriating to watch our elected officials bicker, divide and betray their constituents.”
Click to expand...

Here. We. Go.
 
E

Ernest

Banned
This fuckin guy...

JmoqI1O.jpg


Says the guy who just spent 1/3 billion dollars dropping a single bomb.
Help people domestically? Fuck that! Let's instead use that money to kill terrorists who would have zero impact on us.

Discussion about dropping the bomb probably went something like this:

"Shit, how do we distract from our colossal fuck up that killed 18 of our allies in Syria?"

"Let's drop a bigass bomb on Afghanistan!"

"But we don't have any real targets."

"Just drop it on a mountain and say it was littered with ISIS. Done and done!"
 
K

kirblar

Member
Crocodile said:
kirblar, can you articulate why you think Perriello sucks? What makes him a bad fit? Are his policies or stances completely unrealistic/divorced from reality? Does he have some bad/weird scandals under his belt? Like wouldn't a candidate that people are passionate about (and is good which is of course important) be the exact type of candidate you want in this climate?

EDIT: Isn't the Virgina State House + Senate also having elections this year? Won't they both trend blue or do y'all have a NC situation down there? Are Virginia Republicans crazy or more like New York Republicans?
Click to expand...
We have off-off-year elections. You think Dem turnout is bad for congressional midterms? You ain't seen nothing.

We have had GOP control of the House (most of the time along with the Senate) since '00- so it's almost cerrtainly gerrymandered to hell and back (they currently have 66 seats out of 100... which seems a bit unreasonable.)

At one point in the past 2 decades we DID get control of the state Senate for two years. During that time, they lobbied heavily for Notham to flip. He refused, despite the fact that it would have given him an enormous amount of leverage and power. I remembered that situation, but not who was involved. I was surprised to learn it was Northam when I went to research him, and that counts for a lot for me. He had our backs and didn't sell us out when he easily could have done so and shaped an entire legislative agenda as he saw fit. So yeah, I'm willing to go w/ wood when that wood held steady, and I consider holding steady generally the job of the D governor, because out GOP are the crazy ones.

My first introduction to Pierrello was his 9/11-Trump analogy. A guy FROM YOUR STATE who is comparing Trump getting elected to that day you and all your HS classmates were standing in line at the phones to make sure their parents were ok because they worked at/near the Pentagon. Neither candidate's from my area, but it was galling to hear those words come out of his mouth given that he was a VA resident/candidate for Governor. It started off on the wrong foot, and I'm not seeing anything to flip it around. I understand that things are kinda tapped out w/ VA donors, but the world tour feels carpet-baggy to me. I don't agree on his "believe what you say" shtick being relevant to getting elected, given that he was a guy who came in on one wave, and went out on another. If he does get elected, I don't think he gets anything significant done (because he can't get anything passed) and I think there's a non-zero chance of backlash here w/ the next governor's election unless something crazy happens in the '17/'19 election or we get redistricting reform in a DDD presidency/house/senate config in 2021.
whyamihere said:
KS-02 is an open seat.

http://cjonline.com/news/local/stat...davis-initiates-campaign-rep-lynn-jenkins-2nd

Here. We. Go.
Click to expand...
Gee, I can't imagine why they didn't want to give money to KS-04. /s

This is exactly the type of race you should be funding regardless of timing.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
The second sentence might illuminate why this was a really bad introduction for him to me?
Click to expand...

Yeah, no, I had friends whose parents and family members died in NYC that day and my mom was in the city for work that day because of my proximity to the city. Let it go. You're being extremely hyperbolic considering no one actually cares about this gaffe anymore.

This sounds like pretense. I'm not in your mind, but that's exactly what it seems like it is. And that's fine! Just be honest.

Let's say Perriello never said this. What's the actual reason you'd want to vote for Northam?
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
Yeah, no, I had friends whose parents and family members died in NYC that day and my mom was in the city for work that day because of my proximity to the city. Let it go. You're being extremely hyperbolic considering no one actually cares about this gaffe anymore.

This sounds like pretense. I'm not in your mind, but that's exactly what it seems like it is. And that's fine! Just be honest.

Let's say Perriello never said this. What's the actual reason you'd want to vote for Northam?
Click to expand...
I don't trust him. I don't trust him not to say stupid shit. I don't trust him to be able to enact an agenda. I don't trust him to be able to leave coat-tails. (Warner almost didn't get re-elected a few years back and he's super fucking popular) I would rather have lower expectations that are lived up to then aim for the moon and come crashing down given the state of VA politics.

Northam has won elections repeatedly in the state and didn't shank us when given the opportunity. So yes, I'm willing to go for the boring option when I think there are massive downsides to pushing left in a state where I'm terrified of losing that block on the GOP's power, because that's really what the position is. You aren't passing anything. (McAulliffe couldn't get Medicaid expansion through!) You are there to say no.

One of the big reasons Warner managed to rise in power/popularity was because Jim Gilmore attempted to remove the state property tax on cars and it was a disaster. In came the Technocrat Ds and people liked that things weren't in crisis mode anymore! VA is boring. I don't think that's a bad thing.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
I don't trust him. I don't trust him not to say stupid shit. I don't trust him to be able to enact an agenda. I don't trust him to be able to leave coat-tails. (Warner almost didn't get re-elected a few years back and he's super fucking popular) I would rather have lower expectations that are lived up to then aim for the moon and come crashing down given the state of VA politics.

Northam has won elections repeatedly in the state and didn't shank us when given the opportunity. So yes, I'm willing to go for the boring option when I think there are massive downsides to pushing left in a state where I'm terrified of losing that block on the GOP's power, because that's really what the position is. You aren't passing anything. (McAulliffe couldn't get Medicaid expansion through!) You are there to say no.

One of the big reasons Warner managed to rise in power/popularity was because Jim Gilmore attempted to remove the state property tax on cars and it was a disaster. In came the Technocrat Ds and people liked that things weren't in crisis mode anymore! VA is boring. I don't think that's a bad thing.
Click to expand...

You say you're voting exclusively pragmatically for the person who's polling worse against Gillespie?

Seems dumb.

"I don't trust him" seems like a really stupid thing to say when it causes you to support the less electable candidate!
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Ernest said:
Discussion about dropping the bomb probably went something like this:

"Shit, how do we distract from our colossal fuck up that killed 18 of our allies in Syria?"

"Let's drop a bigass bomb on Afghanistan!"

"But we don't have any real targets."

"Just drop it on a mountain and say it was littered with ISIS. Done and done!"
Click to expand...
Probably more like this eight months ago:

"We need to test the MOAB in an operational theatre."

"All of Afghanistan is gravel, literally 100% of it. We could use it there."

"Okay, schedule it for April and get some darts to throw at the map."
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
You say you're voting exclusively pragmatically for the person who's polling worse against Gillespie?

Seems dumb.

"I don't trust him" seems like a really stupid thing to say when it causes you to support the less electable candidate!
Click to expand...
You're....actually making the "Bernie Polls Better" argument from the '16 primaries?

I didn't trust Bernie either and I went with the other option because I trusted her more. She won my state.

I have a suspicion it doesn't matter who wins because of the national headwinds and Gillespie not...exactly playing well. So I'm going w/ my preference here.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
kirblar said:
You're....actually making the "Bernie Polls Better" argument from the '16 primaries?

I didn't trust Bernie either and I went with the other option because I trusted her more. She won my state.
Click to expand...

I'm making the argument that if you want to vote pragmatically, you should vote for the candidate who is actually polling better and your "feelings" about "I don't trust him!" are silly.

Perriello is polling better than Northam in every single poll taken in the state. Why wouldn't you support him if you're worried about losing as your number one concern? I'm sorry, but that seems unbelievably stupid. It's your decision, but I legitimately cannot understand if you don't have actual policy issues.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Pierrello is a great, loyal man and a good candidate and I came out of retirement a bit to help out in VA earlier this year. Will be heading back soon.

Obama is going to campaign for him before the election. Should be fun.
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
I'm making the argument that if you want to vote pragmatically, you should vote for the candidate who is actually polling better and your "feelings" about "I don't trust him!" are silly.

Perriello is polling better than Northam in every single poll taken in the state. Why wouldn't you support him if you're worried about losing as your number one concern? I'm sorry, but that seems unbelievably stupid. It's your decision, but I legitimately cannot understand if you don't have actual policy issues.
Click to expand...
Is it better to exceed low expectations or to fail high ones?

My concern is less 2017 and more 2021. My expectations are different for a VA Governor (who is a check on power) or a 2016 Pres candidate than they are for whoever we have in 2020.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
F

Futurevoid

Member
Didn't see it posted.

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...stration-moves-to-stabilize-obamacare-markets

The rule includes several changes insurers have pushed for including:

-Reducing the duration of the sign-up period for 2018 by half, lasting from Nov. 1 to Dec. 15.
-Requiring people who sign up for coverage in special enrollment periods to prove they qualify (for example, if they moved and needed new a new plan.) This change is intended to cut down on people only signing up for coverage once they get sick.
-Allowing insurers to require people pay past due premiums before enrolling in a new plan with the same insurer the following year.
-Allowing insurers more flexibility to offer somewhat less generous health insurance plans.
Democrats warn that because of the structure of ObamaCare's subsidies, this change could actually lead to a reduction in subsidies for some people

Insurers called the rule a good first step when it was proposed in February, but they are still waiting to hear back about how the administration will handle ObamaCare's insurer payments.
Click to expand...
 
K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
Oh boy.

Okay, you do you. Your funeral.
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What I am looking for in a '16 pres candidate or a '17 gov candidate (hold the door) is very different than what I'm looking for in a '20 pres candidate. (break the doors down)

I don't get the "oh boy" reaction. I don't want to fucking get the hopes up of all these people desiring immediate results who then get angry and disillusioned when none of it gets delivered.

edit: For reference, see the backlash in NC to the new Gov accepting that shitty compromise when he's in a no-win scenario where a shitty compromise is the best he's going to get.
 
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