Mitch will change the rules. If Ryan and the WH are pushing hard for this then I can see him breaking.
PoliGAF 2017 |OT2| Well, maybe McMaster isn't a traitor.
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whyamihere
Banned
I mean, legitimately, they can't pass this bill if the parliamentarian rules against using budget reconciliation for aspects of the bill (which is extremely likely), and they're going to need to find 60 votes to pass this bill as a whole. I don't see them overruling the parliamentarian, so I don't see where they get the 60 votes for this bill.
I actually don't even know if they're going to get 50 votes here because of the Medicaid provisions. Like, I expect that the hard-right like Lee and Paul will fall in line, but the Medicaid provisions are going to be huge sticking points with those in the caucus that actually had states that passed Medicaid. And defunding Planned Parenthood is already a non-starter for Collins and Murkowski.
I think that something will pass, for sure. I do not think it will be this House bill.
I mean, no, the whole point of them using budget reconciliation is explicitly to not do this.
I actually don't even know if they're going to get 50 votes here because of the Medicaid provisions. Like, I expect that the hard-right like Lee and Paul will fall in line, but the Medicaid provisions are going to be huge sticking points with those in the caucus that actually had states that passed Medicaid. And defunding Planned Parenthood is already a non-starter for Collins and Murkowski.
I think that something will pass, for sure. I do not think it will be this House bill.
I mean, no, the whole point of them using budget reconciliation is explicitly to not do this.
balladofwindfishes
Member
If he were to change the rules, he'd just remove the filibuster and he's never even teased doing this. There would be no need to make drastic changes to the budget reconciliation process if he was already up to changing the rules.
whyamihere
Banned
Exactly.
He doesn't want to change the rules. He wants the Dems to do their work for them w/ the fillibuster so they don't have to vote against their own party on this shit.
broz0rs
Member
Check out Paul Ryan explaining why Obamacare needs to go..
https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/839890397019127808
I had a good laugh watching the video. At the same time, it's pretty frightening to see his mindset.
https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/839890397019127808
I had a good laugh watching the video. At the same time, it's pretty frightening to see his mindset.
Pretty much. The guys in the Senate aren't the Tea Party types, they want to keep their jobs next cycle. This bill goes through and they see a 2006-style wave and who knows how many of them will go in the process.
They need the bill to die in the Senate, but they also need the Dems to take the blame to keep the Tea Party off their back.
nature boy
Member
April recess gonna be fun.
Anyone listen to Axelrod's interview w/ Kamala yet? Gonna have to check it out on my commute home. I've been devouring Axe Files episodes lately.
also, what a good looking photo: https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/839852690142220288
also, what a good looking photo: https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/839852690142220288
nature boy
Member
Fenderputty
Banned
WP updates telling me this is passing house committees hahahahahaha
That's why I used the word breaking. He could finally succumb to their demands if the House GOP and WH move full steam ahead on this.
Freedom Caucus opposing this means it's not even making the Senate right now. They can't whip this shit because no one wants to vote for it.
The 2006/2010 wave is about to happen and they know it. They're wasting their time because Ryan and Trump are both incompetent. McConnell is not.
Ok this is interesting. It's rare to see a GOPer paint the ACA in that light
And Hillary is totally going to be elected guys!
It's extremely premature to say that Democrats are going to do anything but continue their spiral considering how the last election turned out, the disarray of the party, and the math of 2018.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
nature boy
Member
If your focus is entirely on the Senate and nothing else, then yes, the math in 2018 looks bad.
This is so stupid. If it doesn't work, why do employers encourage their employees to be healthy as a part of their entire health insurance compensation package? You literally get credits for being healthy. It's because you subsidize people who aren't healthy. And it's because it works.
balladofwindfishes
Member
The "math" of 2018 is that they walk into it at an advantage.
broz0rs
Member
I learned not to discount shitty outcomes anymore after the Trump and Brexit wins. Plus, Republicans have fallen in line to everything the past decade even after public declarations they'll do otherwise.
He's also inadvertently explaining how insurance really works. Sucks he has to be so heartless against sick and older people though
NullPointer
Member
The only thing Trump is good for.
We'll see whether his rallies are enough to push Trumpcare.
Of course, nobody's going to be fooled by this. First, these are the people who were furious with Republicans for failing to stop Obama when there was literally no way for them to stop Obama other than by defaulting on the US debt and shutting down the government permanently. They're going to judge on results rather than on how hard Senators pretend to try. Second, conservative media is actually pretty good about pointing out when conservative policy is being held back due to Republicans not being willing to violate the right norms.
Unless a 9/11 happens (and even then Trump's probably too incompetent to leverage it) the entirety of US political history says you're wrong.
Voters are ignorant and reactionary.
Trump desperately wants to get back on the campaign trail and away from actually having to work
the fact that Paul Ryan doesn't understand that health insurance relies on healthy people paying for sick people explains a lot about his shitty bill
They would have to nuke the filibuster, the byrd rule is codified not just a senate rule
nature boy
Member
Signing off on the repeal without a full replacement (which would normally requires 60 votes) is political suicide. Obamacare is not limited to the "coastal elites", they pull the rug and shit hits the fan.
All of this is happening BEFORE the CBO rating, which will give more Rs leverage to bail on the bill.
I guess they'll just have to come up with a "better" solution.
More_Badass
Member
Someone needs a morale boost
Eh, they can "try" to pass the bill, watch it fail, blame the Dems in red states for it not passing, and then go on to the other parts of their agenda, and hope ACA (without fixes) ends up starting to fall apart in 2018. They're not going to scuttle their entire agenda over ACA.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I disagree. They campaigned on it. They guaranteed it would happen. That plays a major role here.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
What is their agenda? Do they have one?
ACA repeal was like half of their agenda when they were campaigning
Healthcare -> tax reform -> infrastructure
But, for some reason, they've repeatedly boxed themselves into saying that it MUST be done in this order.
Not to mention the first and the last can only really be done in ways that are anathema to the Freedom Caucus.
Someone should let him know that's exactly how all insurance works.
Mr.Shrugglesã
Banned
Revert tax increases -> Codify a way to limit more increases -> Tax giveaways
The better metric is: who out there is enthusiastically in support of this, that is not an elected official or somebody appointed by an elected official? The base that's fully in the tank is on the side of the Koch brothers in thinking this is too sissy, everybody else is against the bill for being too dangerous in one way or another.
I haven't seen a soul that wasn't a congressional Republican or Trump Admin come out and back this.
Oh of course, I'm just getting into what's likely their thinking. These guys can't be looking at the town halls that have been happening in conservative districts and think that a repeal will go over well. The guys in the Senate are generally career types. They're counting on the fact that the Tea Party guys make up a smaller amount of the population of their states than the people ready to riot if a repeal happens (which is more than likely true).
Odds are this will wind up hurting their House members more than their Senate members.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I think a lot of them are true believers in trickle down economics.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
https://www.buzzfeed.com/alimwatkin...election-worry?utm_term=.rrb5rZYvo#.kpvVW4lwj
So this is incredibly frightening. It also leads one to believe that Trump's constant needling of the IC is purposefully done to distract the actual intelligence being done and get them off track.
I don't buy that they are that stupid. We've had decades of evidence disproving that theory.
So this is incredibly frightening. It also leads one to believe that Trump's constant needling of the IC is purposefully done to distract the actual intelligence being done and get them off track.
I don't buy that they are that stupid. We've had decades of evidence disproving that theory.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Okay, but since when have they cared about evidence for anything else?
There's no economic gain to teaching creationism, for example, and ample science debunking it, and yet many of them believe it and push it into laws. So it's not like they're into creationism for money
There's no economic gain to teaching creationism, for example, and ample science debunking it, and yet many of them believe it and push it into laws. So it's not like they're into creationism for money
Abinash117
Member
Plus they are very corporate and want to privatize many things.
Republicans are believers in Christian capitalism. The rich are deserving of the grace of God.
ErasureAcer
Banned
TrickleDownLaughing.gif
metalslimer
Member
The republicans don't have anything they really want to do besides dismantle the safety net
BreezyLimbo
Banned
Because its easier to co-opt people who have already been indoctrinated by religion.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
The "prosperity gospel" that has destroyed Christianity in this country.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It's a tale as old as time. The rich and powerful are rich and powerful because they have the blessing from a deity.
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