The GOP strategy on quickly repealing the Affordable Care Act and enacting tax reform that seemed to be so creative and smart when it was first revealed right after the election may soon become the prime source of legislative hell for House and Senate Republicans. Knowing that a Senate filibuster was virtually certain on ACA repeal and highly probable on tax reform, the GOP plan was to use the reconciliation process -- which prevents filibusters -- to pass them both.
To do that, for the first time in the 43-year history of the congressional budget process, Congress would pass 2 budget resolutions -- the first for fiscal 2017; the second for 2018 -- in the same year. The FY17 budget resolution, which would be adopted in January, would include reconciliation instructions that would lead to the end of Obamacare. The FY18 budget resolution, which would be adopted in May or June, would include instructions that would result in a GOP tax reform package being enacted.
This seemed very doable immediately after the election given the Republican political euphoria. With a GOP-controlled House and Senate and Donald Trump in the White House, passing 2 budget resolutions and two reconciliation bills appeared to be not just possible, but inevitable. And Congress did indeed adopt a 2017 budget resolution in January.
But adopting the 2017 budget resolution has been the only part of the GOP's grand scheme that has come together on schedule. What's yet to occur may bring the whole plan to a screeching halt and make it impossible for ACA repeal and tax reform to happen quickly. The worst case scenario is that the once slam-dunk GOP grand scheme will end up preventing both ACA repeal and tax reform from happening at all.
Follow the bouncing legislative ball.
The January 27 date the budget resolution gave the committees with jurisdiction over Obamacare to report repeal legislation has come and gone with none of the committees reporting anything. More important, because of the deep divisions among and between House and Senate Republicans and the White House on whether to repeal and replace at the same time and what the repealed health plan should be replaced with, it seems increasingly likely that this first reconciliation isn't going to happen any time soon.
In one sense that's not a problem: there's no penalty if Congress misses a reconciliation deadline set in a budget resolution. No matter what the budget resolution says, it has almost unlimited time to comply with the instructions.
The key is "almost." The repeal instructions and the no-filibuster protections from the FY17 budget resolution will only remain in effect until the FY18 budget resolution is adopted.
This is where the grand scheme becomes a huge (or should that be yuge?) problem for the GOP. Congress normally would have a year before it considered the next budget resolution. But, because the scheme calls for the FY18 budget resolution to be considered in about 3 months, Congress has a real problem. If the FY17 reconciliation isn't adopted soon, Republicans might not be able to use reconciliation and would face a certain-to-succeed Democratic filibuster on ACA repeal.