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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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K

Kevinroc

Member
https://twitter.com/TopherSpiro/status/918630046604169216

NEW: Nonpartisan actuaries: Trump's order will drive up premiums for ACA plans; #TrumpPlans could go BANKRUPT ⚠️
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https://t.co/e9NVwwScHa

DL-gNgNW4AUySDQ.jpg
 
C

Culex

Banned
Things cannot get much worse than Malloy in CT. He is literally hated on both sides, which is quite the accomplishment.
 
H

Holmes

Member
I really don't think Democrats lose the governor's mansion in Connecticut in a Trump midterm. I hate to make it out to be so simplistic, but sometimes the most simple answer is the right one.

They could lose some seats in the state leg though.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-house-turns-over-russia-docs-to-mueller-probe

The White House has made significant progress turning over documents to Bob Mueller’s special counsel probe, according to a lawyer familiar with the investigation. The lawyer also said that several current and former White House staffers either have been interviewed by Mueller’s investigators or are scheduled to be interviewed by them in the next few weeks.
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“The bulk of the heavy lifting is largely behind,” the lawyer said.
But it isn’t finished. Mueller and his investigators have been making follow-up requests of the White House legal team as they follow up on their original queries and refine them, per our source, and the legal team has been moving to answer those requests as they come.
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I also read that some of Trump's close associates are telling Trump to fight Mueller.

http://time.com/4975705/donald-trump-robert-mueller-russia/

Even as President Donald Trump's advisers encourage him to accept the realities of special counsel Robert Mueller's probe, longtime friends and allies are pushing Trump to fight back, citing concerns that his lawyers are naive to the existential threat facing the president.
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In private, Trump remains relatively calm for now, but that doesn't mean he thinks the Russia probe is legitimate, and he could return to fighting Mueller at any moment, according to a group of about 15 Trump allies, advisers and former campaign aides, who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak candidly about private conversations with the White House.
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Lawyers have been gathering documents requested by Mueller's investigators — which include records about the brief tenure of ex-national security adviser Michael Flynn — and working to schedule interviews with aides. In recent weeks, they've also discussed a legal defense fund that could cover the cost of lower-level White House officials who may get wrapped up in the probe, and about the possibility of a single "pool counsel" to represent some aides.
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But others, including many who worked closely with Trump on his successful election campaign, don't trust Mueller and believe White House lawyers are foolhardy to cooperate when the president is at risk.

The president and his team need to understand that this is a "political brawl" — not just a legal fight — and take that fight to Mueller, said the former campaign aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private discussions with the president and his team.

Trump will remain under control, one associate noted, as long as Mueller remains focused on Flynn and former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, both of whom are under investigation. If the federal probe turns back toward the Trump family and business empire, then Trump may try to fire Mueller, the associate predicted.

The lay-low strategy is a departure in style for a president accustomed to rhetorical bombast. But after a period several months ago in which his advocates discussed ways to undercut the credibility of Mueller's investigation, his attorneys now talk openly about their respect for Mueller and their desire for full cooperation.
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R

RDreamer

Member
Goodbye Obamacare
President Donald Trump plans to cut off critical subsidy payments to insurers selling Obamacare coverage, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The decision to end the payments, worth an estimated $7 billion this year, marks Trump's most aggressive move yet to dismantle Obamacare after months of failed GOP repeal efforts on Capitol Hill. The move is likely to draw lawsuits and may put pressure on Congress to appropriate funding for the subsidies, which help insurers reduce out-of-pocket costs for low-income Obamacare customers.
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A

Abinash117

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Umm... he can't do that

He really likes keeping judges busy
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Don't know much about what he can or can not do, but these seems changing the law, right?

Interesting to see how the right wing will defend and spin that if that is the case. I guess they will try to argue how it is not changing the law. He get so much bad coverage from this considering it will harm so many people that rely on it, including his supporters.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Abinash117 said:
Don't know much about what he can or can not do, but these seems changing the law, right?

Interesting to see how the right wing will defend and spin that if that is the case. I guess they will try to argue how it is not changing the law. He get so much bad coverage from this considering it will harm so many people that rely on it, including his supporters.
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Funding stuff is 100% Congress' power and only Congress' power. If Congress says "this will be funded" it will be funded. Trump is just writing his own laws and signing them and he's going to get embarassed in court over it.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
I don't think this is Republicans, I really think it's just Trunp.
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A quite a few Republicans know what would happen it they try to do this. This is mostly Trump's and his administrations doing. He'll has some congressional Republican support, but not much. Knowing the track record of them defending their positions on ACA and selling their ideas, this will go bad for them in many ways I think.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Funding stuff is 100% Congress' power and only Congress' power. If Congress says "this will be funded" it will be funded. Trump is just writing his own laws and signing them and he's going to get embarassed in court over it.
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I figures it has something to do with changing the law. This EO is going force Congress' hands - again. They already have to deal with tax reform - now this. I wonder if Trump was in communication with Republicans or he just did this without consulting with them. I doubt it is the former. This seems completely idiotic since he is going to confront, yet again, is own party by challenging Congress. This seems more blatant then some of Obama's EOs that Republicans claim were unconstitutional because Obama didn't have authority to direct funds.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Ending these subsidies is both morally bankrupt and politically stupid.

And even if you try to explain it as, it was illegal what Obama was doing we're fixing that, that's a terrible argument that few will care about when they can't afford their own health insurance.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This sets up quite the battle between Trump and the GOP in Congress.

They get to decide between bowing to him and screwing their constituents or funding their healthcare. This is going to be fascinating to watch.

And all because he hates Obama.
 
Z

Zolo

Member
Abinash117 said:
I figures it has something to do with changing the law. This EO is going force Congress' hands - again. They already have to deal with tax reform - now this. I wonder if Trump was in communication with Republicans or he just did this without consulting with them. I doubt it is the former. This seems completely idiotic since he is going to confront, yet again, is own party by challenging Congress. This seems more blatant then some of Obama's EOs that Republicans claim were unconstitutional because Obama didn't have authority to direct funds.
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Trump passes this shit to congress, so he can blame them if needed.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Kevinroc said:
The GOP in Congress still haven't done anything about CHIP.
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I honestly wonder if they're pushing this off until before midterm elections next year and will try to blame Obamacare. Then, they bring it back and try to act like they saved it themselves.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
wow.

http://publicpool.kinja.com/subject-embargoed-president-donald-j-trumps-new-strat-1819425957

THE WHITE HOUSE

Office of the Press Secretary

EMBARGOED UNTIL 5:00AM on October 13, 2017

*_PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMPS NEW STRATEGY ON IRAN_*

"It is time for the entire world to join us in demanding that Irans government end its pursuit of death and destruction. President Donald J. Trump"

President Donald J. Trump, in consultation with his national security team, has approved a new strategy for Iran. It is the culmination of nine months of deliberation with Congress and our allies on how to best protect American security.

*"_HIGHLIGHTS_"*

*""*

*"Core Elements of the Presidents New Iran Strategy"*


* The United States new Iran strategy focuses on neutralizing the Government of Irans destabilizing influence and constraining its aggression, particularly its support for terrorism and militants.
* We will revitalize our traditional alliances and regional partnerships as bulwarks against Iranian subversion and restore a more stable balance of power in the region.
* We will work to deny the Iranian regime and especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) funding for its malign activities, and oppose IRGC activities that extort the wealth of the Iranian people.
* We will counter threats to the United States and our allies from ballistic missiles and other asymmetric weapons.
* We will rally the international community to condemn the IRGCs gross violations of human rights and its unjust detention of American citizens and other foreigners on specious charges.
* Most importantly, we will deny the Iranian regime all paths to a nuclear weapon.

*"_BACKGROUND_"*

*""*

*"The Nature of the Iranian Regime under Supreme Leader Khamenei"*

For 28 years, Ali Khamenei has been Irans Supreme Leader. Before that, he held the office of President for 8 years. In that time, he has shaped the Iranian regime in his image.

Khamenei and the IRGC have pursued a steady policy of spreading a revolutionary ideology aimed at undermining the international system and many states by force and subversion. His main enemy and rallying point has been and continues to be the United States of America, which he calls the Great Satan.

Under Khamenei, Iran exports violence, destabilizes its neighbors, and sponsors terrorism abroad. Within Iran, under Khameneis rule the Iranian government has oppressed its people, abusing their rights, restricting their access to the internet and the outside world, rigging elections, shooting student protesters in the street, and imprisoning political reformers like Mir Hussein Musavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

*"The Threats from the Iranian Regime"*


* The reckless behavior of the Iranian regime, and the IRGC in particular, poses one of the most dangerous threats to the interests of the United States and to regional stability.

The Iranian regime has taken advantage of regional conflicts and instability to aggressively expand its regional influence and threaten its neighbors with little domestic or international cost for its actions.

This occurred most recently following the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from the vacuum created by the Obama administrations ill-considered withdrawal from the region.


* The full range of the Iranian regimes malign activities extends well beyond the nuclear threat it poses, including:

o Ballistic missile development and proliferation;

o Material and financial support for terrorism and extremism;

o Support for the Assad regimes atrocities against the Syrian people;

o Unrelenting hostility to Israel;

o Consistently threatening freedom of navigation, especially in the strategically vital Persian Gulf;

o Cyber-attacks against the United States, Israel, and Americas other allies and partners in the Middle East;

o Grievous human rights abuses; and

o Arbitrary detention of foreigners, including United States citizens, on specious charges and without due process.

*"The Need for a Comprehensive Strategy"*


* The previous Administrations myopic focus on Irans nuclear program to the exclusion of the regimes many other malign activities allowed Irans influence in the region to reach a high-water mark.
* Over the last decade and a half, United States policy has also consistently prioritized the immediate threat of Sunni extremist organizations over the longer-term threat of Iranian-backed militancy.
* In doing so, the United States has neglected Irans steady expansion of proxy forces and terrorist networks aimed at keeping its neighbors weak and unstable in hopes of dominating the greater Middle East. Recently, the Iranian regime has accelerated the seeding of these networks with increasingly destructive weapons as they try to establish a bridge from Iran to Lebanon and Syria.
* The Trump Administration will not repeat these mistakes.
* The Trump Administrations Iran policy will address the totality of these threats from and malign activities by the Government of Iran and will seek to bring about a change in the Iranians regimes behavior.
* The Trump Administration will accomplish these objectives through a strategy that neutralizes and counters Iranian threats, particularly those posed by the IRGC.

*"Countering the IRGC"*

Supreme Leader Khameneis primary tool and weapon in remaking Iran into a rogue state has been the hardline elements of the IRGC.

The IRGCs stated purpose is to subvert the international order. The IRGCs power and influence have grown over time, even as it has remained unaccountable to the Iranian people, answering only to Khamenei. It is hard to find a conflict or a suffering people in the Middle East that the IRGCs tentacles do _not_ touch.


* Unaccountable to Irans elected leaders or its people, the IRGC has tried to gain control over large portions of Irans economy and choke off competition, all the while working to weaken and undermine Irans neighbors and perpetuate the chaos and instability in which it thrives.
* The IRGC has armed Bashar al Assad and guided his butchering of his own people in Syria and has cynically condoned his use of chemical weapons.

The IRGC has sought to undermine the fight against ISIS with the influence of militant groups in Iraq under the IRGC's control.

In Yemen, the IRGC has attempted to use the Houthis as puppets to hide Irans role in using sophisticated missiles and explosive boats to attack innocent civilians in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as to restrict freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

The IRGC has even threatened terrorist attacks right here at home. Senior IRGC commanders plotted the murder of Saudi Arabias Ambassador to the United States, Adel Jubeir, on American soil in 2011. But for exceptional work by our law enforcement and intelligence officers to detect and disrupt this egregious act, the IRGC would have conducted this terrorist attack and assassination in our own capital and would have killed not only a Saudi Arabian diplomat, but a host of other innocent bystanders at a popular restaurant in Washington, D.C.


* The IRGC, which repeatedly displays reckless hostility and disregard for the laws and norms that underpin the international order, threatens all nations and the global economy.
* Our partners in the international community agree with us that the IRGCs reckless behavior threatens international peace and security. They agree that the IRGC is fanning sectarianism and perpetuating regional conflict. They agree that the IRGC is engaged in corrupt economic practices that exploit the Iranian people and suppress internal dissent, human rights, and Irans economic prosperity.
* For all these reasons, we want to work with our partners to constrain this dangerous organization, for the benefit of international peace and security, regional stability, and the Iranian people.

*""*

*"The Iranian Nuclear Program and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action"*


* The Iranian regimes activities severely undercut whatever positive contributions to regional and international peace and security the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) sought to achieve.
* Even with regard to JCPOA itself, the Iranian regime has displayed a disturbing pattern of behavior, seeking to exploit loopholes and test the international communitys resolve.
* Iranian military leaders have stated publicly that they will refuse to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of their military sites. These statements fly in the face of Irans commitments under JCPOA and the Additional Protocol. Not long ago these same organizations hid nuclear facilities on military sites.
* This behavior cannot be tolerated; the deal must be strictly enforced, and the IAEA must fully utilize its inspection authorities.

###

REMINDER OF TIMELINE FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY//NOT REPORTABLE

_TIMELINE (AS PREVIOUSLY CIRCULATED) _

5:00AM Embargo lifts on White House Iran Policy Fact Sheet (above)

11:30AM Embargo lifts on the On-The-Record, Off Camera (no audio) Briefing on Iran Policy with Secretary Tillerson and National Security Advisor McMaster

12:45PM President delivers remarks on Iran Policy

###
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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm not seeing that anywhere on Twitter.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
In better news.

https://ndxplains.com/2017/10/12/heitkamp-raised-1-million-third-quarter-almost-4-million-cash-hand/

According to a spokesperson, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp raised $1,038,434.65 and now has $3,760,739.79 cash on hand. This continues Heitkamp’s streak of out-raising any North Dakota U.S. Senate candidate during an off year. In fact, she raised almost twice as much as any other North Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in the third quarter of an off year before the election year. Coupled with high rankings in polls and national figures placing the race as “lean Democrat” she holds a strong position heading into the 2018 election year.

The Heitkamp campaign highlighted she’s received approximately four thousand individual contributions from North Dakotans. Heitkamp’s spokesperson Sean Higgins said, “Once again, Sen. Heitkamp is breaking records in North Dakota and we greatly appreciate the support. It just reinforces all of the critical work Sen. Heitkamp is doing every day to fight for North Dakota workers and families in the U.S. Senate.”

It is without a doubt the race for the U.S. Senate will be the most expensive in North Dakota history. Heitkamp’s ability to raise money while continuing to prove her effectiveness in the Senate will be necessary. Recently, she was ranked in the top ten for most effective Senators according to The Center for Effective Lawmaking. The combination of high rankings from non-partisan organizations, President Trump saying Heitkamp is a “good woman” during his trip to North Dakota, and the ability to raise millions of dollars in an off year is a good way to build momentum.
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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
Thanks.

In the past, republicans would rush to war to boost support.

I'm skeptical in a time where people care far more about their health care and living paycheck to paycheck that this method will actually work.

I still say his approval is down in the 20s by the end of the year.
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I also think when your approvals are low, "going to war" doesn't really help. It's sort of like how Trump has caused support for BLM, gun control, and NFL protests to go up.
 
M

Mark Andrew

Member
I’ll admit I’m really confused on this healthcare EO. I’ve seen analyses from plenty of reputable people ranging from “it’s the end of the world” to “it’s mostly symbolic”, and from “this will get thrown out by the courts” to “it’s well within his power”. Does anyone have a decent explainer?
 
T

TheAbsolution

Member
Mark Andrew said:
I’ll admit I’m really confused on this healthcare EO. I’ve seen analyses from plenty of reputable people ranging from “it’s the end of the world” to “it’s mostly symbolic”, and from “this will get thrown out by the courts” to “it’s well within his power”. Does anyone have a decent explainer?
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It'll take some time for the effects of it to be fully realized. Nobody knows really.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Just got a notification from WaPo saying Trump will extend a March 5 deadline to end DACA if Congress fails to act. Source is a GOP senator.

Edit: Here’s the story

TULSA — President Trump will extend a March 5 deadline to end protections for young undocumented immigrants if Congress fails to act by then, according to a Republican senator who spoke directly with the president about the issue.


Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said Trump told him he was willing to “give it some more time” to allow lawmakers to find a solution for “dreamers,” unauthorized immigrants brought to this country as children, if Congress does not pass legislation extending protections before time is up.


“The president’s comment to me was that, ‘We put a six-month deadline out there. Let’s work it out. If we can’t get it worked out in six months, we’ll give it some more time, but we’ve got to get this worked out legislatively,’” Lankford said outside a town hall here Thursday night.


Trump did not specify how long an extension might last, Lankford said.
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M

Mark Andrew

Member
ratcliffja said:
This is probably because he knows that tax reform is going to take longer than he anticipated and they won't be able to shove DACA into that bill.
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Remember, tax reform was going to done by August and now they’re talking about keeping Congress open through Christmas. I think tax reform is off to a horrible start and will probably be dead soon. I’m much more hopeful for a codified DACA. In this Congress it should be much easier to pick off a few moderate Republicans to support Democratic legislation than it is to get Republicans alone to pass anything.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Mark Andrew said:
How many weeks before we’re involved in a ground war in the Middle East?
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Trump surrounded himself with people who hate Iran--mostly former Marines. We're going to probably end up in a war with Iran if Trump stays in power the next 3 or so years.

AntraxSuicide said:
So Saudi Arabia.
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Trump also loves Israel and is a pretty big supporter of Jordan despite not actually knowing the current Kings name.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Mark Andrew said:
Remember, tax reform was going to done by August and now they’re talking about keeping Congress open through Christmas. I think tax reform is off to a horrible start and will probably be dead soon. I’m much more hopeful for a codified DACA. In this Congress it should be much easier to pick off a few moderate Republicans to support Democratic legislation than it is to get Republicans alone to pass anything.
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Technically they've got all the way until 9/30/18 to do tax reform. Although once we get up to primary season it might get too hot to handle.
 
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