• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

Status
Not open for further replies.

Chumly

Member
The courts have already ruled that the CSR payments were unconstitutional as they usurped the power of the Congress to appropriate funds. Most spending in Obamacare was mandatory and they didn’t exist because of executive action. The Obama administration continued paying them out while the ruling was appealed with the admin defending the CSR spending.

Now the Trump admin will drop the appeal but the court has also ruled that the 18 or so AG’s who sued to keep them in place can take over the appeal/defense of the CSR payments moving forward.
Wasn't it just a single Court that ruled that? Where republicans thought they would get a favorable ruling? People only quote the one judge but did we think that the appeals court and Supreme Court were going to uphold the ruling?
 

Blader

Member
Do you guys think we were more likely to elect a Dem to replace Collins in the Senate, or more likely to elect a Dem to replace LePage as governor?

And also, now that I think of it, why would that distinction matter since they're both statewide elections anyway?
 

Kusagari

Member
Do you guys think we were more likely to elect a Dem to replace Collins in the Senate, or more likely to elect a Dem to replace LePage as governor?

And also, now that I think of it, why would that distinction matter since they're both statewide elections anyway?

Whichever race Collins chose to run for, we were going to lose.

So I don't think it really matters.
 
Senate seat would have been the bigger win. Collins as governor with a Dem legislature would have been nearly indistinguishable from a moderate Dem imo.

Oh well. Even though I’d still prefer Democrats picking up her seat, there’s quite a gap between Collins and the next most liberal GOP senator.
 
Won't Bannon have a candidate to run against her?
Sure, but her Senate re-election is in 2020.

Even if she does somehow get dislodged in a primary (doubt it), losing a gubernatorial primary would have looked even worse for her if she decided to run for re-election. Same reason why Vitter retired from Congress after losing the gubernatorial election, which by all counts would have been an easy win for any other Republican.

Anyway Cook made some House ratings changes, all but one in our favor.

AZ-2 McSally Lean R -> Tossup
AZ-9 Open (Sinema) Safe D -> Likely D
CA-48 Rohrabacher Lean R -> Tossup
CA-50 Hunter Safe R -> Likely R
IA-1 Blum Lean R -> Tossup
KS-2 Open (Jenkins) Likely R -> Lean R
KY-6 Barr Safe R -> Likely R
MI-8 Bishop Likely R -> Lean R
NY-11 Donovan Safe R -> Likely R
PA-7 Meehan Likely R -> Lean R
UT-4 Love Safe R -> Likely R
VA-7 Brat Safe R -> Likely R

Puts a few on the board that I would have never considered like Hunter and Brat.

tbh I feel like with the healthcare stuff Trump is inviting a wave. He doesn’t care about political prospects for the GOP Congressmembers, but just because he defied the rules (to an extent) doesn’t mean they can too.
 
No threat in Arizona 9, certainly not in 2018.
Yeah that just seems to be out of caution. I always see a Likely rating as “keep an eye on this one” compared to Lean suggesting the other party winning it wouldn’t be terribly surprising and obviously a Tossup going either way.
 

Hubbl3

Unconfirmed Member
Sooo I may not understand what this speech is supposed to be, but why is it so religious?

I'm assuming it's Trump? If so, the Republican base loves religious pandering even if in reality they all shit on the principles they supposedly believe in.
 
Sure, but her Senate re-election is in 2020.

Even if she does somehow get dislodged in a primary (doubt it), losing a gubernatorial primary would have looked even worse for her if she decided to run for re-election. Same reason why Vitter retired from Congress after losing the gubernatorial election, which by all counts would have been an easy win for any other Republican.

Anyway Cook made some House ratings changes, all but one in our favor.

AZ-2 McSally Lean R -> Tossup
AZ-9 Open (Sinema) Safe D -> Likely D
CA-48 Rohrabacher Lean R -> Tossup
CA-50 Hunter Safe R -> Likely R
IA-1 Blum Lean R -> Tossup
KS-2 Open (Jenkins) Likely R -> Lean R
KY-6 Barr Safe R -> Likely R
MI-8 Bishop Likely R -> Lean R
NY-11 Donovan Safe R -> Likely R
PA-7 Meehan Likely R -> Lean R
UT-4 Love Safe R -> Likely R
VA-7 Brat Safe R -> Likely R

Puts a few on the board that I would have never considered like Hunter and Brat.

tbh I feel like with the healthcare stuff Trump is inviting a wave. He doesn’t care about political prospects for the GOP Congressmembers, but just because he defied the rules (to an extent) doesn’t mean they can too.

How many districts are in the tossup category held by Republicans?
 
Sure, but her Senate re-election is in 2020.

Even if she does somehow get dislodged in a primary (doubt it), losing a gubernatorial primary would have looked even worse for her if she decided to run for re-election. Same reason why Vitter retired from Congress after losing the gubernatorial election, which by all counts would have been an easy win for any other Republican.

Anyway Cook made some House ratings changes, all but one in our favor.

AZ-2 McSally Lean R -> Tossup
AZ-9 Open (Sinema) Safe D -> Likely D
CA-48 Rohrabacher Lean R -> Tossup
CA-50 Hunter Safe R -> Likely R
IA-1 Blum Lean R -> Tossup
KS-2 Open (Jenkins) Likely R -> Lean R
KY-6 Barr Safe R -> Likely R
MI-8 Bishop Likely R -> Lean R
NY-11 Donovan Safe R -> Likely R
PA-7 Meehan Likely R -> Lean R
UT-4 Love Safe R -> Likely R
VA-7 Brat Safe R -> Likely R

Puts a few on the board that I would have never considered like Hunter and Brat.

tbh I feel like with the healthcare stuff Trump is inviting a wave. He doesn’t care about political prospects for the GOP Congressmembers, but just because he defied the rules (to an extent) doesn’t mean they can too.

Here's the link if people wanted to read why

vpap.org/offices/house-of-delegates-42/elections/
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
No, the fucking democrats in the state will nominate two candidates, a former janitor at Goldman Sachs and someone who once smelled Jill Stein’s hair and they will split the vote and I’m sure Scott Baio will get elected in Maine.
No one has done more to clean up Wall Street than Dirk Stegman CPJ
 

Kemal86

Member
Two weeks away from buying my own insurance for the first time (lost my job-provided insurance in May), so the last 24 hours have been pretty miserable.
 
I gotta say, why do Christians want holiday colors and Santa related themes associated with Christmas?

To put it extremely reductively, it's part of the distinctly American fusion of Protestantism, Republican Party values, and Capitalism. Many "evangelicals" in the US subtextually see the consumerism inherent to the Santa/Holiday bullshit as not only an inherent good, but something that God himself wants celebrated because of the gift giving at the Epiphany (which is actually celebrated as a separate day). Therefore such bullshit should be shoved down the throats of everyone else in order to encourage consumerism and make God, the US, and the Republican party happy.
 

Ogodei

Member
Funny thing is Puritanism was opposed to Christmas back during the English Civil War, and during Cromwell's reign they banned the more festive and secular parts of Christmas entirely, replaced by a solemn Christmas Day mass.

Speaking of Christmas, Jon Favreau is pitching the idea that Democrats should allow the GOP to shut down the government unless CSRs are restored and the dreamers are protected this December.
 

Emerson

May contain jokes =>
That's exactly what they should do. The GOP can't blame the Dems when they control the entire government. The Democrats hold literally all the leverage on this particular issue.
 
To put it extremely reductively, it's part of the distinctly American fusion of Protestantism, Republican Party values, and Capitalism. Many "evangelicals" in the US subtextually see the consumerism inherent to the Santa/Holiday bullshit as not only an inherent good, but something that God himself wants celebrated because of the gift giving at the Epiphany (which is actually celebrated as a separate day). Therefore such bullshit should be shoved down the throats of everyone else in order to encourage consumerism and make God, the US, and the Republican party happy.
I've known some evangelicals who were extremely opposed to the non-religious elements of Christmas (tree, gifts, Santa, Jingle Bells, etc). Maybe things have shifted over the past decade.
 
I've known some evangelicals who were extremely opposed to the non-religious elements of Christmas (tree, gifts, Santa, Jingle Bells, etc). Maybe things have shifted over the past decade.

Contemporary Evangelicals are less "Christian" and more "Republican" these days. Kirk Cameron's "Saving Christmas", while a deplorable film, is a perfect example of what modern evangelical culture means nowadays in the US. It's also a decent explanation as to what happened to Evangelicals that made them the most solid voting block for Trump per polling.
 
I’m fairly confident you’ll have the votes in the Senate to keep the Iran deal. Not as informed on the House dynamics, but it seems a harder sell there.
 

Vixdean

Member
I mean, I hope there's enough level headed Republicans in the Senate to realize that a war with Iran with this President isn't the best idea. But who knows, these people are fucking psychopaths.
 
Speaking of Christmas, Jon Favreau is pitching the idea that Democrats should allow the GOP to shut down the government unless CSRs are restored and the dreamers are protected this December.

As he has done before. I tweeted at him that I do not support that, a government shutdown should be off limits. He has said himself that shutdowns are the domain of Republicans, as they don't believe in government, where as Democrats do. Do not turn shutdowns into another justification for "both sides" bellyaching.

Fight for DACA and the Dream Act, fight for ACA, but leave government up and running.
 
I mean, I hope there's enough level headed Republicans in the Senate to realize that a war with Iran with this President isn't the best idea. But who knows, these people are fucking psychopaths.
Tom Cotton will rally the psychos toward decertification. Remember this guy backchannelled threats to Iran while Obama was implementing the deal.
 

Emerson

May contain jokes =>
As he has done before. I tweeted at him that I do not support that, a government shutdown should be off limits. He has said himself that shutdowns are the domain of Republicans, as they don't believe in government, where as Democrats do. Do not turn shutdowns into another justification for "both sides" bellyaching.

Fight for DACA and the Dream Act, fight for ACA, but leave government up and running.

Holding out on their votes is literally the only leverage Democrats have to fight for the things you want them to fight for. They can't put a Dream Act up for votes if the Republican leaders don't want to. Why on earth should Democrats vote to fund the government if the terms of the deal implicitly include kicking out DACA recipients and destroying the ACA?

Democratic leadership not only should fight it, they have an obligation to.
 
Holding out on their votes is literally the only leverage Democrats have to fight for the things you want them to fight for. They can't put a Dream Act up for votes if the Republican leaders don't want to.

Democratic leadership not only should fight it, they have an obligation to.

Not by shutting down the entire government. No way. That's off limits. That's crap that Republicans do (and blame Democrats for anyway). Don't hand them a loaded gun that they can legitimately use against you.
 

kirblar

Member
Not by shutting down the entire government. No way. That's off limits. That's crap that Republicans do (and blame Democrats for anyway). Don't hand them a loaded gun that they can legitimately use against you.
Yup. I'm all for fighting fire w/ fire w/ the fillibuster/blue slips, but we cannot go there.
 

Wilsongt

Member
That's exactly what they should do. The GOP can't blame the Dems when they control the entire government. The Democrats hold literally all the leverage on this particular issue.

Sure they can, and they have and people believe them.

The moron population, anyway.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom