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[Fragamemnon]

SurveyUSA always used likely voter models and they have been almost never wrong, they are one of the highest weighted polling outlets on 538

The link doesn't have the partisan weighting-there's no doubt that the convention/Palin effect is going to have some effect here, with all of the uneducated fundie trogdolytes and wretches in the state. I didn't think it would have that much effect though.

Bev Purdue's CM probably shat his pants seeing that too. I don't want a GOP governor, they do nothing but take great giant dumps on the state and leave huge deficits and unfunded mandates.

 

[Cheebs]

For context, the WSJ/NBC had:

June: Obama +6
July: Obama +6
August: Obama +3
September: ??

I'm guessing tied or down a point or two.

It was taken sat-monday. And other pollsters show mccain had a VERY good weekend so I say we will be lucky to be tied, if it is tied that'd be great news.

 

[artredis1980]

They've been wrong plenty of times. They do have a good record overall, though.

I want to see one more NC poll to substantiate it, but that's not a good sign.

didnt NC go republican from 1992 to 2004? wtf r u worried about

 

[gkryhewy]

That's Halperin for you. Sounds like he knows which way the WSJ/NBC poll leans.

Somebody must be up outside the margin of error. Could go either way :lol

EDIT: Oh, sat-mon. Definitely McCain then.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Oh well. Time to internally reassert my belief in the democratic process and go back to not caring about Politics again forever.

Yeah. We had a good run. Can I ask Obama for my money back? I don't want it being spent on a losing campaign.

 

[PhoenixDark]

McCain being up by 20 may be an outlier, although granted that polling company has been pretty ace so far. At the least it seems to suggest McCain got a big ass bump in that state, something he hasn't really gotten anywhere else

 

[tanod]

Someone on kos says the NBC/WSJ is...

Obama/Biden 46
McCain/Palin 45

We'll see

Where was Kerry in this poll four years ago?

 

[GhaleonEB]

didnt NC go republican from 1992 to 2004? wtf r u worried about

Yes it did. I'm looking at it from the perspective of what it could mean for McCain's base in that region; parts of Virginia, etc.

But at the moment I'm considering it an outlier.

Not panicking yet.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Where was Kerry in this poll four years ago?

After the GOP convention, he was in the shitter for a good while until the debates, where he closed the gap because Dubya is almost as dumb as Sarah Palin is.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Where was Kerry in this poll four years ago?

I remember reading he was behind the whole campaign until the debates where he pulled even.

 

[syllogism]

Where was Kerry in this poll four years ago?

I'm skeptical about those numbers, but to answer your question, Kerry was never ahead in the NBC/WSJ poll as far as I know. It was always very close though.

 

[vumpler]

Question Guys: When was the last time a single party had control of the house, senate, AND president?

Was it FDR? I can't find anywhere it stating when it was but I remember from American history FDR's name being brought out and the new deal being passed with an all Demy sweep. Might be false.

i still can't find anything outside of the recent bush answer you guys had :/ I know there were more

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'm skeptical about those numbers, but to answer your question, Kerry was never ahead in the NBC/WSJ poll as far as I know. It was always very close though.

I coulnd't find the history quickly, but it sounds like he was way behind after the GOP convention. From First Read this morning, teasing the poll:

In 2004, John Kerry found himself behind after the GOP convention by a significant margin, and he had to use three strong debate performances just to pull within striking distance. It doesn’t look like that will be the case for Obama and the Democrats this year.

 

[Fatalah]

At the root of our frustration is the fact that the Republicans can screw up all they want, and the American public consistently gives them a pass. Al Gore lost in 2000 after 8 super-fantastic economical years under Clinton. What do Democrats need to do to get Americans back on their side?

Olbermann mentioned this Harry Truman line to Barack on his show last night:

"How many times do you have to get hit over the head before you figure out who’s hitting you?"

As McCain's numbers are surging, I ask this: how many Republicans actually saw this coming?

 

[tanod]

Yes it did. I'm looking at it from the perspective of what it could mean for McCain's base in that region; parts of Virginia, etc.

But at the moment I'm considering it an outlier.

Not panicking yet.

Do you live in NC? I thought you live in CA or something?

As a Democrat, all I'd like to say that if you live in a Republican or swing state or even a Democratic state, it's your responsibility to make your vote known.

America deserves better and you owe it to your country to show up in its greatest time of need.

 

[Cheebs]

I'm skeptical about those numbers, but to answer your question, Kerry was never ahead in the NBC/WSJ poll as far as I know. It was always very close though.

Someone at Kos says Kerry was +1 in it after the first debate.

 

[Stoney Mason]

After the GOP convention, he was in the shitter for a good while until the debates, where he closed the gap

That is also how I remember it. Kerry got a surge at the end but it was too little and too late. I seem to remember there was some Zogby polls at the end that were very favorable to him. (Zogby was a more respected poll in 2004 because it had been pretty accurate in 2000 I think)

 

[Tamanon]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMxp5UkeGCc

"Nobody knows what war is like other than my family. Period."

Thanks Meghan.

 

[grandjedi6]

Hmm. Likely voter model. Still, that's an ugly swing.

They've always used likely voter and as in the primaries they proved time and time again to be very accurate.

They didn't poll the NC primary too well though

 

[Slurpy]

Meghan McCain: 'Noone knows what war is like other than my family. Period. '

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMxp5UkeGCc

Yeah. What a fucked up comment.

 

[CharlieDigital]

At the root of our frustration is the fact that the Republicans can screw up all they want, and the American public consistently gives them a pass. Al Gore lost in 2000 after 8 super-fantastic economical years under Clinton. What do Democrats need to do to get Americans back on their side?

Start a war?

 

[grandjedi6]

i still can't find anything outside of the recent bush answer you guys had :/ I know there were more

You must have missed my post. The last time before that was 1993-1995, Democrats

 

[Gaborn]

i still can't find anything outside of the recent bush answer you guys had :/ I know there were more

Last time was Bush obviously, but before that the last was Clinton, 1992-1994 (where the Dems got crushed in the midterm elections)

Edit: Beaten by GrandJedi.

 

[tfur]

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94428476

No questions, please; Palin sticks to her script

...

Associated Press reporters were not on the plane, but an aide told the journalists on board that all Palin flights would be off the record unless the media were told otherwise. At least one reporter objected. Two people on the flight said the Palins greeted the media and they chatted about who had been to Alaska, but little else was said.

...

 

[Incognito]

McCain up 20%? Give me a break.

 

[syllogism]

Someone at Kos says Kerry was +1 in it after the first debate.

NBC  News/Wall Street Journal

                       Bush, Kerry, Nader,   None,   Unsure

LV	10/29-31/04 	48 	47 	1 	2 	2
	10/16-18/04 	48 	48 	1 	1 	2
	9/17-19/04 	50 	46 	1 	1 	2
						

RV	10/16-18/04 	48 	46 	2 	1 	3
	9/17-19/04 	48 	45 	2 	1 	4
	8/23-25/04 	47 	45 	3 	1 	4
	7/19-21/04 	47 	45 	2 	1 	5

 

[PhoenixDark]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMxp5UkeGCc

"Nobody knows what war is like other than my family. Period."

Thanks Meghan.

I'd assume she meant "no one knows more about what war is like than my family" or something along those lines.

reminds me of the Michelle Obama slip

 

[GhaleonEB]

Do you live in NC? I thought you live in CA or something?

As a Democrat, all I'd like to say that if you live in a Republican or swing state or even a Democratic state, it's your responsibility to make your vote known.

America deserves better and you owe it to your country to show up in its greatest time of need.

I'm in Oregon, safe blue territory. I'll be voting and I've donated a fair amount to Obama over the course of the year.

It's what I can do.

 

[Learn2read]

That is also how I remember it. Kerry got a surge at the end but it was too little and too late. I seem to remember there was some Zogby polls at the end that were very favorable to him. (Zogby was a more respected poll in 2004 because it had been pretty accurate in 2000 I think)

I went to dailykos and found the post where the poll was supposedly linked and checked the comments to see if people were familar with the poster or were calling him out. Anyways, someone there said that at Sept. 13-15 Kerry was down 14. Take that for what you will.

 

[Tamanon]

There's no way North Carolina suddenly swung to 20 points, we hate hockey here!

 

[Justin Bailey]

Its one poll people. Call me when there's a clear trend.

 

[tanod]

Its one poll people. Call me when there's a clear trend.

*ring ring*

"It's a statistical tie"

 

[Xisiqomelir]

I'd assume she meant "no one knows more about what war is like than my family" or something along those lines.

That's still not exactly endearing, PD.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

There's no way North Carolina suddenly swung to 20 points, we hate hockey here!

Maybe, but what about hockey moms?

 

[Fatalah]

Does anyone think the announcement of poll results effects future votes?

 

[Hootie]

McCain up 20%? Give me a break.

There's something important you are forgetting:

Never set your expectations high when it comes to the American public.

 

[HylianTom]

Hmm. If McCain went up in mainly red states to begin with, this removes mathematical room for him improving his standing elsewhere. I wonder how his numbers moved in places like Idaho, Texas, etc.

 

[artredis1980]

didnt NC vote republican from 1992 to now?

 

[TheKingsCrown]

Does anyone think the announcement of poll results effects future votes?

Yes, but the question is how.

Argument 1: If there is a clear winner in a poll, dumb people vote for who they think the winner will be to make themselves feel better.

Argument 2: If there is a clear winner in a poll, opponents to that person come out to vote and people who aren't opponents stay home as they assume the person they want to win will win.

 

[artredis1980]

you guys are going crazy, let mccain win a few red states. we should only care for the midwest and florida. THATS IT!!!

 

[Fatalah]

Yes, but the question is how.

Argument 1: If there is a clear winner in a poll, dumb people vote for who they think the winner will be to make themselves feel better.

Argument 2: If there is a clear winner in a poll, opponents to that person come out to vote and people who aren't opponents stay home as they assume the person they want to win will win.

It's just a question of which way it will swing.

 

[tanod]

Yes, but the question is how.

Argument 1: If there is a clear winner in a poll, dumb people vote for who they think the winner will be to make themselves feel better.

Argument 2: If there is a clear winner in a poll, opponents to that person come out to vote and people who aren't opponents stay home as they assume the person they want to win will win.

Argument 3: The only validity or meaning I've ever seen in a national poll is that it usually indicates where the last minute undecided votes go.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Never set your expectations high when it comes to the American public.

Doubly so for a good chunk of the NC population, which loves segregated suburbia, immigrant bashing, and evengelical nuttery. I thankfully live in the bluest part of the state, but holy cow you only have to drive a half hour or so to get to the snake kissin' and handling churches.

 

[Slurpy]

I've never seen such self-righteous, faux victimization from any party or any candidate in history. Its utterly unbeievable. Palin's name cannot even be mentioned without the near instant obligatory 'HOW DARE YOU.!!!11 OLD BOYS CLUB!!11 GLASS CEILING!!! HISTORIC!! ' bullshit response from the GOP. I hope voters see through this absolute bullshit.

Another thing I've realized is that truth has become almost irrelevant. You have people unabashedly spouting bald-faced lies, and then accusing the other party of lying. Muddyig the waters so that voters don't know who the fuck to believe anymore. They know most people wont really do the research. Accusing the other side of lying does the trick.

 

[Learn2read]

Hmm. If McCain went up in mainly red states to begin with, this removes mathematical room for him improving his standing elsewhere. I wonder how his numbers moved in places like Idaho, Texas, etc.

Not a bad point. I'd like to see more state by state numbers.

 

[DrForester]

I don't know why anyone still worries about the polls not like they're giving any useful information.

Even if one candidate had a huge lead, the news media would just ignore it because a close race gives them something to talk about.

Polls are used for just 1 thing. Ratings.

 

[GhaleonEB]

didnt NC vote republican from 1992 to now?

1964, IIRC.

 

[Stoney Mason]

didnt NC vote republican from 1992 to now?

They did and there was no chance it was going Dem anyway. I think people are more concerned if it was pointing out a trend in general that could carry over to some other states.

North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin

 

[Justin Timberlake]

The North Carolina poll is scary not because of North Carolina but because of Virginia. VA and NC are very similar. Both have spectacular education systems, are diverse, have good economies, etc. Northern VA is basically NC's research triangle. NC has always been slightly more to the right than VA, but they are pretty close otherwise.

VA is the critical swing state of this election, make no mistake about it. I am very worried that new VA numbers will be like NC ones.

 

[Fatalah]

you guys are going crazy, let mccain win a few red states. we should only care for the midwest and florida. THATS IT!!!

It just doesn't....it doesn't make sense that such a mediocre ticket is winning in the first place!. A ticket with so many problems, so so many. SO MANY.

But I guess you're right. Let them have their tar tar sauce.