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PoliGAF Interim Thread of cunning stunts and desperate punts

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Huzah

Member
CharlieDigital said:
I think what they're doing is engineering a trap.

Look, if they call her out now in the press, any mistakes she makes or falsehoods she claims is meaningless because no one is really paying attention. Aside from that, calling her out now on specific policy issues is fruitless because they'll have time to prepare whatever answer they want. You can't have a proxy debate through the press because it doesn't play to the strengths of Obama and Biden (deep knowledge of the topics) since it neutralizes the on-your-toes thinking that is required.

They're trying not to reveal their hand too early. No point in grilling her through the press; she'll be exposed when the debates come around. Aside from that, as the three presidential debates take place, it'll further emphasize to the American public who the actual presidential candidates are and further remove her from the spotlight. What's been kind of lost in all this is McCain and I think that when the presidential debates come around, it'll put him front and center again and it will give them the perfect opportunity to throw the knockout punch.

I agree, the VP debates is the time for the DEM to do true damage to Palin but they can't just go in underestimating her and believe McCain's campaign haven't been grilling her on the issues ever since she's been nominated.
 

kevm3

Member
Huzah said:
That won't work. You have to wait for her to mess up first to do that or the McCain campaign will just stump/put out an add that says "You're wrong this is how she feels" and she can just say whatever the McCain talking point for that is.
That's the thing. The republicans HAVE no real grasp on the issues, which iswhy they're seeking to avoid it. Obama says he wants to make this election about the issues... And so he should make it about the issues by calling their bluff. Why give Palin time to prepare in Alaska instead of using this opportunity to say, "Why isn't Palin speaking with the American public about her opinion on the issues so that the American public can know her better?" Obama has to be crafty in his criticisms that punish the republicans for avoiding talking about policy, which is their weakness... and now is the perfect time to do it in my estimation.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Huzah said:
I agree, the VP debates is the time for the DEM to do true damage to Palin but they can't just go in underestimating her and believe McCain's campaign haven't been grilling her on the issues ever since she's been nominated.
Well they certainly didn't bother to grill her on fannie and freddie, so ask about those at the debates plz.
 

Huzah

Member
kevm3 said:
That's the thing. The republicans HAVE no real grasp on the issues, which iswhy they're seeking to avoid it. Obama says he wants to make this election about the issues... And so he should make it about the issues by calling their bluff. Why give Palin time to prepare in Alaska instead of using this opportunity to say, "Why isn't Palin speaking with the American public about her opinion on the issues so that the American public can know her better?" Obama has to be crafty in his criticisms that punish the republicans for avoiding talking about policy, which is their weakness... and now is the perfect time to do it in my estimation.

I think you're overestimating the number of people who actually like Obama's policies. Don't take people's disgust of GOP incompetance to mean they suddenly favor leftist DEM policies.
 

Bulla564

Banned
How bad would it be for the Obama campaign to run ads on how McCain cheated on his wife, abandoned her after she had suffered through an accident and waited for him. I would equate the US with her wife, and how McCain would only abandon us and cheat with go to bed with the lobbyists that run his campaign.

would that be bad?
 
Y2Kev said:
I'll have photos soon. But I didn't get into the event. I got into the lottery but they only had 100 tickets for 15,000 applicants.

This pretty much aligns with my theory on this. Look, they can easily have open forums with 10k, 20k, 30k people if they wanted to. But it serves as a terrible forum for unraveling the details of your education policy or your healthcare policy or your economic policy. Big crowds want big speeches, not the type of nuanced speeches that are necessary to get into the nitty-gritty. In addition, big crowds don't really allow for Q/A sessions.

Right now, it's all about timing. We'll see the return to the big crowd format, but I think right now, they're focusing on getting the details of their policy out there in the states that count. They're staying on point about sticking to the issues and I think this is something that they can use to their advantage.
 

DenogginizerOS

BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
Bulla564 said:
How bad would it be for the Obama campaign to run ads on how McCain cheated on his wife, abandoned her after she had suffered through an accident and waited for him. I would equate the US with her wife, and how McCain would only abandon us and cheat with go to bed with the lobbyists that run his campaign.

would that be bad?
But Obama is a democrat; not a Republican. ;)
 

Huzah

Member
Y2Kev said:
Well they certainly didn't bother to grill her on fannie and freddie, so ask about those at the debates plz.

Even though she probably didn't mean it you can argue the implicit gurantee that fannie and freddie got was to expensive for the government to back. Yayyyy spinnnn.
 
Sep11.png


Obama 273 McCain 238 Ties 27
 

stressboy

Member
Bulla564 said:
How bad would it be for the Obama campaign to run ads on how McCain cheated on his wife, abandoned her after she had suffered through an accident and waited for him. I would equate the US with her wife, and how McCain would only abandon us and cheat with go to bed with the lobbyists that run his campaign.

would that be bad?

I don't think that would work out too well.
 

gcubed

Member
when does 538 update their site with more polls? I'd like to read some discussions around Obama's lead in Ohio, which is a huge game changer if the statistics behind the poll flesh out to be trustworthy
 

Huzah

Member
Bulla564 said:
How bad would it be for the Obama campaign to run ads on how McCain cheated on his wife, abandoned her after she had suffered through an accident and waited for him. I would equate the US with her wife, and how McCain would only abandon us and cheat with go to bed with the lobbyists that run his campaign.

would that be bad?

All I have to say is I dare the DEM party to run that ad, I dare them.
 
Huzah said:
I agree, the VP debates is the time for the DEM to do true damage to Palin but they can't just go in underestimating her and believe McCain's campaign haven't been grilling her on the issues ever since she's been nominated.

They're definitely not underestimating her. There was an article yesterday on how Biden is using a full four days to prepare for the debates against her by practicing against another female opponent (a governer?). Biden knows what's at stake here; he knows that they are going to set up traps and pitfalls and he's already preparing to work around them. I suspect Biden will deliver a thorough can of kick-ass on her.
 

kevm3

Member
Huzah said:
I think you're overestimating the number of people who actually like Obama's policies. Don't take people's disgust of GOP incompetance to mean they suddenly favor leftist DEM policies.
I agree that that's the case. There's not enough people that really care about the issues alone, so Obama shouldn't focus only on the issues while the pubs are free to launch personal attack after personal attack, because it's a losing proposition. I'm saying for Obama to attack and push itback to the issues so that the Republicans are in an arena where their incompetence is showing. They are basically stealing Obama's campaign about change. I'm saying Obama needs to make them qualify those statements, and punish them when they fail to. They've never been strong on specifics. Why isn't Obama calling them on it Palin has no real grasp on the issues. It's time to make her put that on display, instead of waiting for the GOP to drill some decent retorts to issues. Why give her a month to shore up on the issues?
 

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
The posters here seem about as divided and puzzled on what to do with Palin as the Obama campaign itself:

-Does Obama go after Palin or focus on McCain?
-Should Obama let Biden do the attacking? If so, what the hell is he waiting for?
-Should Obama press Hillary to go after Palin?
-Should Obama press the issues as his narrative rather than continue to let the McCain camp dictate the news cycle?

I just feel like Joe Biden has been about as terrible at handling the Palin emergence so far as you can imagine, and considering that Obama picking Hillary would've avoided this whole mess with Palin, you have to think Biden OWES Obama enough to at least have him neutralize his VP counterpart. It's like everyone is leaving Obama to do all the heavy lifting. Hillary and Biden sort of on their own bubbles campaigning yet doing nothing to deal with the biggest threat right now, Sarah Palin. Now, I don't blame Hillary if she's bitter after not even being vetted, that she now is hesitant to be the attack dog on Palin. But bloody hell, how is Biden not shouting about Palin's policy/governing mistakes from every rooftop in the United States right about now?
 
Bulla564 said:
How bad would it be for the Obama campaign to run ads on how McCain cheated on his wife, abandoned her after she had suffered through an accident and waited for him. I would equate the US with her wife, and how McCain would only abandon us and cheat with go to bed with the lobbyists that run his campaign.

No telling what the dem 527s will do, and Obama isn't even allowed to tell them not to do an ad like that.
 
Huzah said:
All I have to say is I dare the DEM party to run that ad, I dare them.

I'm willing to bet that they have these ads ready to roll out already but they're not going to use them until after the last debate. Why? Otherwise, if he uses them early, the press will call him out on it and it'll linger into the debates where it might give McCain an opportunity to feign faux outrage and gain sympathy. He cannot use this type of ad until after the last debate.

Don't think that the Democrats don't know how this works. It's simply a matter of timing and as we get closer to D-Day, each side will ratchet up the attacks. We're still a whole month and a half out from election day man...it's too early to reveal your hand; no reason to crest early.
 

gcubed

Member
Xisiqomelir said:
Washington, South Dakota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida and Nevada aren't ties.

They arent listed as ties... only FLA is

the latest Quinnipac puts Obama +5 in Ohio... I wouldnt qualify that as "red leaning"

that would change the map to Obama 293, McCain 245
 
I also want to point out that people who want Obama to run more ads or attack McCain/Palin through ads are out of touch here.

No ad is going to sway anyone, not even independents sitting on the fence and certainly not die-hard McCain/Palin voters. No attack ad is going to have that type of effect. This strategy is a flat out waste of money at this point because attack ads are not going to sway a single person.

At this stage of the election, the only things that are going to change people's minds is direct presentation of facts and refutation of lies. The small venues are intentional. They're faster to set up and easier to organize, leaving more time to work on the support network that matters: the party volunteers and those who are canvasing, trying to get the message out there.
 

Cheebs

Member
Door2Dawn said:
lol @ Texas being red leaning.
That is fairly normal for elections due to the high amount of hispanics. It always goes red but not really THAT red. 2000 and 2004 are the exception due it being Bush's home state.
 

AndresON777

shooting blanks
CharlieDigital said:
At this stage of the election, the only things that are going to change people's minds is direct presentation of facts and refutation of lies. The small venues are intentional. They're faster to set up and easier to organize, leaving more time to work on the support network that matters: the party volunteers and those who are canvasing, trying to get the message out there.


There's still time for Hillary! Any one but Mccain dammit!
 

Huzah

Member
CharlieDigital said:
I also want to point out that people who want Obama to run more ads or attack McCain/Palin through ads are out of touch here.

No ad is going to sway anyone, not even independents sitting on the fence and certainly not die-hard McCain/Palin voters. No attack ad is going to have that type of effect. This strategy is a flat out waste of money at this point because attack ads are not going to sway a single person.

At this stage of the election, the only things that are going to change people's minds is direct presentation of facts and refutation of lies. The small venues are intentional. They're faster to set up and easier to organize, leaving more time to work on the support network that matters: the party volunteers and those who are canvasing, trying to get the message out there.

I think the GOP still has some ammo with a Obama's born alive vote attack ad, which I bet they will play very close to the election. I don't know what Obama can do against McCain/Palin unless trooper gate turns into something really big, but if it was really big it would be covered by MSM anyways.
 

Huzah

Member

Barrett2

Member
CharlieDigital said:
I also want to point out that people who want Obama to run more ads or attack McCain/Palin through ads are out of touch here.

No ad is going to sway anyone, not even independents sitting on the fence and certainly not die-hard McCain/Palin voters. No attack ad is going to have that type of effect. This strategy is a flat out waste of money at this point because attack ads are not going to sway a single person.

At this stage of the election, the only things that are going to change people's minds is direct presentation of facts and refutation of lies. The small venues are intentional. They're faster to set up and easier to organize, leaving more time to work on the support network that matters: the party volunteers and those who are canvasing, trying to get the message out there.


I don't know why you would argue this, every political science class I took in undergrad said that attack ads always work to depress turnout for your opponent. If liberals were to effectively run attack ads against McCain in a way that suppressed the evangelical turnout, why wouldn't that work to Obama's favor? I thought the only point of attack ads was to depress turnout for the opponent, not increase turnout for your candidate... If so, why wouldn't we want some 527 group hammering McCain?
 

numble

Member
Crisis said:
Where are they getting the stuff for New Mexico? Everything I've seen on that one leads me to believe it's leaning Obama.
AFAIK, they have no methodology except to apply the most recent poll. So the latest poll says McCain is up, even though most polls right before that say Obama is up.
 

gkryhewy

Member
Huzah said:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...is_key_but_big_government_is_not_the_solution

Or maybe alot of American want the gov to just leave them alone and don't buy into wealth redistribution and class warfare.

Yes I know the GOP has recently totally sucked on that aspect as well.

That's kinda one of the points made in the essay:

The miracle of turning individuals into groups can only be performed by groups that impose costs on cheaters and slackers. You can do this the authoritarian way (with strict rules and harsh penalties) or you can do it using the fairness/reciprocity foundation by stressing personal responsibility and the beneficence of the nation towards those who "work hard and play by the rules." But if you don't do it at all—if you seem to tolerate or enable cheaters and slackers -- then you are committing a kind of sacrilege.
 

Cloudy

Banned
http://reason.com/blog/show/128741.html

Last year, Barack Obama had the right smirking with glee when he made the sensible suggestion that if the U.S. gets intelligence that there are Al Qaeda cells operating in Pakistan, we should go in and get them, with or without permission of the Pakistani government. If Pakistan won't root out Al Qaeda, Obama said, his administration would. I never quite understood the controversy in that statement, which by the way, is the position of many in the U.S. military.

Nevertheless, Obama was roundly ridiculed. John McCain said the statement showed Obama's naivete. Mitt Romney called him "Dr. Strangelove." Conservative blogs mischaracterized his position as wanting to "invade" or "bomb" Pakistan. Obama's critics at the time apparently believed that it's fine to invade an occupy a country whose government had virtually no ties to Al Qaeda, but suggesting we cross the border into a country whose government may be actively or passively harboring large numbers of Al Qaeda and Taliban forces is foolish.

It looks like the Bush administration didn't find Obama's position all that naive, because they've adopted it to the letter:

President Bush secretly approved orders in July that for the first time allow American Special Operations forces to carry out ground assaults inside Pakistan without the prior approval of the Pakistani government, according to senior American officials.

The new orders reflect concern about safe havens for Al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan, as well as an American view that Pakistan lacks the will and ability to combat militants. They also illustrate lingering distrust of the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies and a belief that some American operations had been compromised once Pakistanis were advised of the details.

Will McCain now condemn the Bush administration's decision to go into Pakistan? Or was this idea only naive ten months ago? Was it only naive because it came from Obama?

The Obama campaign should be making a much bigger deal about this.

I was wondering why no one mentioned this. Maybe we'll hear about it next week..
 
Chrono said:
You know, after watching this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b42UI_m-HSU

The first thing I thought of was that Big O knew exactly what he was doing with that lipstick comment - the whole point was to draw attention to it and have people listen to him when he goes off about the American people wanting to here about issues and the media's obsession with pointless controversies that hijack the headlines from what matters.

After this...

I'm 100% certain of it.

Very cool. :D
You know, after the O'Reilly interview and the Letterman appearance, it looks like Obama is really on his game. I was a bit apprehensive about it, but now I'm quite confident Obama will kick some major ass in all 3 debates.

Biden will obv rule too.
 

Huzah

Member
gkrykewy said:
That's kinda one of the points made in the essay:

Actually after reading the article some more it is a very interesting piece. I do recommend people to read it as well. Thanks for it.
 

Odrion

Banned
The Lamonster said:
You know, after the O'Reilly interview and the Letterman appearance, it looks like Obama is really on his game. I was a bit apprehensive about it, but now I'm quite confident Obama will kick some major ass in all 3 debates.

Biden will obv rule too.
actually yeah I can see this too

Did anyone hear Huckabee on XM? He was doing stand up and actually was funny, even zinged Palin. :lol
 

tanod

when is my burrito
Deku said:
How doomed are we?

If it's within 5 points, a well executed ground game in a state should give Obama the win.

I would argue ties go to Obama as well.


What you all don't realize is that since the conventions, Obama's "favorability" and "shares my values" numbers have risen and are now slowly solidifying. That was one of his biggest challenges and will give him a good chance to capture a good portion of late deciders.

Also, he put Michelle out there for the convention and now she has super high favorables but she's not out campaining. It was a perfect way to cement her in the minds of Americans as a positive figure.
 

Gruco

Banned
To summarize my thoughts on the energy discussion from a few pages back, here's what I see in an energy policy which Makes Sense:

Short term

1) Auction off permits ASAP. Proceeds can be reinvested into program expenses. This will probably have the direct effect of massively enhancing the efficiency of coal plants, allowing solar-thermal to be extremely competitive, and lowering some demand through increased prices.

2) Institute the fuel standard surcharge/subsidy for high/low vehicles. Ideally I would like to see this as revenue generating as well, but it'll will probably end up being revenue neutral or something. This will have a more direct effect than gas taxes on consumer decisions and expedite the growth of hybrid and lighter vehicles.

3) Nanny state the hell out of everything. This means creating incentives for tune ups (omg keep our tires full, right), taxing incandescent light into oblivion, enormous efficiency reviews of government buildings, and well as being heavy handed about codes for new buildings and getting older ones to suit up. I will admit that I don't know the ideal practical step for the latter.

4) Grid upgrade. This should have been taken care of in 2003.

5) Go after the low hanging fruit for geothermal and wind sites, including direct subsidy if necessary.

Mid term

1) Pump R&D into cellulosic ethanol.

2) Gradually scale up Geothermal and Wind to the moderate sites. Possibly include solar-thermal depending on how much progress it has made on it's own.

3) Pump R&D into PV solar and create an incentive fund.

4) Begin to make restrictions on fossil fuels progressively more aggressive over time

5) Nuclear...honestly I think both Mandark and Huzah had points on the viability of whether this can be fully privately fueled. But since there is frankly so much low hanging fruit, I'd say the best thing to do is just implement the no brainers and then reassess from there.

Long term

Shoot the moon. Seriously, everything needs to be considered. I'd say particularly heavy research in hydrogen storage and fuel cells and nuclear fusion, but really every storage system and crazy idea should be considered, scholarships should be widely available to careers which will follow this path, etc. By this time, between various renewable sources and improved conservation and efficiency efforts blah blah blah.

The thing with energy is you so often hear that X Y or Z can't solve everything, which is true, but the whole point with energy is just to do everything, since there are so many ways to improve the system right now, but also so many high ceiling ideas out there. This is my biggest problem with saying the Nuclear is necessary and we'd need to scale it up to meet plug in hybrids. That may be true with current technology, but since this is so clearly a sector expected to have massive growth, by the time you scale up infrastructure on those it could already be a whole new ballgame. None of us can say with certainty where things will be in another 20 years, just that there are a lot of options.

Now, I wrote this before reading either candidate's energy policy, but just for kicks, went and did it after.

Barack Obama
John McCain

Looking through these, McCain's honestly isn't as bad as I expected it to be. He has a few really silly ideas, but at the same time hits a lot of the big notes. Obama hits most of the big notes as well, though I feel his proposals are more specific and measurable than McCain's. And honestly, to hell with "experience", if you ask me who is more likely to be able to enact their agenda, given Obama's ties to the democratic legislative leadership and McCain's belligerence towards not getting his way, there's not question in my mind who is more likely to be able to steer their proposals through congress. Though really, it's just shameful that so much of this hasn't been done already.
 

tanod

when is my burrito
For everything people criticize the campaign for, they are doing A LOT of things right. Also, it has always been a good rule that you don't attack your opponent when you're ahead. It just drives down your favorables. The longer Obama keeps the perception of the high ground, the more people will move in his direction. It worked against Hillary and it will work against John McCain.

At this stage in the race: favorability, values, and strength on particular issues are the only polls that matter. Head-to-heads do not. You can see with the number of undecideds slowly moving down that people are being more willing to make a final judgement so now is the time to solidify your image which is what Obama is doing. When that's sufficiently done, then he can rip McCain in the debates and onwards until the election.
 

Rur0ni

Member
Quinnipiac 9/11/08

Pennsylvania
Obama 48
McCain 45

Obama +3

Florida
McCain 50
Obama 43

McCain +7

Ohio
Obama 49
McCain 44

Obama +5

Notes:

Florida: "Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups," said Brown. "He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats."

Penn: "Sen. McCain has narrowed the gap in Pennsylvania by wiping out Sen. Obama's lead among independent voters. But Obama still holds a three-point edge by convincing previously uncommitted Hillary Clinton primary voters and Catholics to move into his camp - the Catholics perhaps because of some help from running mate Joe Biden, a Catholic from Scranton," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Ohio: "Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama are getting the same level of party loyalty and the Republican is even winning slightly among independents. But Obama is ahead because there are so many more people who identify as Democrats - a legacy of the 2006 election and scandals involving former Gov. Robert Taft's administration," Brown said.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1212

Ohio is the good news. The overwhelming number of Democrats helps Obama. If he can take Ohio this election is over.

Bad news... Penn closer than it should be. 22% of Clinton voters there support John McCain. Though Biden has high favorability there, and is pulling Catholics for Obama.

Penn favorables: McCain gets a 54 - 34 percent favorability, compared to Obama's 56 - 29 percent. Palin's favorability is 39 - 26 percent, while Biden gets a 53 - 22 percent score.

Palin doesn't have high unfavorables. I would guess this is because people really don't know her yet.

Florida.. Disappointment.

Edit: Overall, Independents are leaning McCain slightly.. Obama needs to cut that down, as well as pull in more Clinton Democrats. But some of them can't be converted (cannot be reasoned with).
 

Deku

Banned
tanod said:
If it's within 5 points, a well executed ground game in a state should give Obama the win.

I would argue ties go to Obama as well.


What you all don't realize is that since the conventions, Obama's "favorability" and "shares my values" numbers have risen and are now slowly solidifying. That was one of his biggest challenges and will give him a good chance to capture a good portion of late deciders.

Also, he put Michelle out there for the convention and now she has super high favorables but she's not out campaining. It was a perfect way to cement her in the minds of Americans as a positive figure.

Thanks for the reply. I will probably keep asking this until things stabilize.

The hand wringing is really hard to slog through, and reading blog posts from who knows where for a ray of light is also not my cup of tea.

In all seriousness I am very concerned about Obama's candidacy. Charlie Rose had Tom Freidman (sp) on yesterday and he was talking about ET (environment technologies) and how the US needs to lead on this to catch the next wave of technological innovations. And like all super powers, leading this field will augment American power elsewhere.

What he's worried about is that America is not going to step up to the challenge and will be instead decline slowly, kind of like the frog in the pot of water that slowly comes to a boil. We will all wake up one day and find America as a 2nd rate power and McCain/Palin seems set to make this happen.
 

Odrion

Banned
Deku said:
How doomed are we?
it's the first week of the republican convention bump goddamnit if you really are afraid go phonebank or donate

Also why am I seeing Obama lead in Ohio? I didn't think that'd be the case this week.
 

Deku

Banned
Odrion said:
it's the first week of the republican convention bump goddamnit

if you really are afraid go phonebank or donate

1. I'm not American.

2. I'm shedding light to the mood here, not so much flipping out.

But there's no denying the polls have turned badly again Obama and pinning hopes of debates as many seem to think is a guaranteed obama/bin win is a big gamble.
 
thanks Rur0ni

Folks, remember the Ferraro effect...this is the closest McCain will ever get. The pendulum will start to swing the other direction soon.
 

Cheebs

Member
The Lamonster said:
thanks ruroni

Folks, remember the Ferraro effect...this is the closest McCain will ever get. The pendulum will start to swing the other direction soon.
Ferraro's husband got caught in a lot of legal trouble, that is why she imploded. Not cause people got bored of her or the novelty.
 
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