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[ronito]

The REAL problem is that 90% of the population have low attention spans and won't/can't follow important things like politics unless there's a "story" of they're entertained in the process. The MSM needs ratings so they have to present it this way.

Don't blame the news channels, blame the willfully ignorant amongst us..

I'm am disgusted by your assupmtions and the problems people's attentionOMGDIDYOUHEARTHATPALINWENTBACKTOALASKASHEISSOOOOCOOL!!

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Where are you seeing that?

I was looking at this, in the middle of the page from Sept. 11th:

Today: McCain +2.0+/-0.8% (adjusted EV Obama 238, McCain 300)
September 11th, 2008, 5:23pm by Sam Wang


It appears that the tie I reported before was indeed a fluctuation. Seven national polls conducted September 8-10 give McCain, once again, a median margin of 2.0+/-0.8% over Obama. Applying this as an adjustment to the EV estimator above gives a current estimate of Obama 238 EV, McCain 300 EV. The 95% confidence intervals are Obama [200-270] EV, McCain [268-338] EV. McCain is ahead but it’s close.

 

[Nabs]

i could never be on cable news. i don't know how they keep composure during those shows. especially on something like hannity and colmes. alan colmes must pop xanax before they start filming because i don't know how he keeps himself from ripping sean's spine out.

Yeah seriously. The only way I'd actually finish a segment w/o walking off is by acting like Cam'ron on The O'Reilly Report.

 

[Keylime]

I'm am disgusted by your assupmtions and the problems people's attentionOMGDIDYOUHEARTHATPALINWENTBACKTOALASKASHEISSOOOOCOOL!!

:lol

Sad but true.

 

[speculawyer]

Merrill Lynch and Lehman Bros. both going down??

Quick! Someone ask McCain and Palin about this.

Palin: Lehman was allowed to grow too big for the taxpayers.

Spoiler

Joke!

 

[Gantz]

I have a question about these polls. Do they poll young people especially college students and people who only have cell phones? If they're just polling landlines then these polls are useless.

 

[Ether_Snake]

That Republican woman was probably referring to how Campbell Brown owned Tucker Bounds in an interview.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYYiw_y2qDI

That interview prompted the McCain campaign to cancel further interviews/appearances on the network.

That guy is such a failure of a spokesman or whatever he is, they can only blame themselves. They never answer the fucking questions, ever.

 

[Stoney Mason]

i could never be on cable news. i don't know how they keep composure during those shows. especially on something like hannity and colmes. alan colmes must pop xanax before they start filming because i don't know how he keeps himself from ripping sean's spine out.

GAF likes to beat up on Alan Colmes and so do a lot of liberal media pundits but other than the fact that he is on a hack news network I think he defends the position of the left as well as any other pundit. It's not his fault Hannity has more clout within his network.

 

[Stinkles]

I have a question about these polls. Do they poll young people especially college students and people who only have cell phones? If they're just polling landlines then these polls are useless.

It's a well known gap in polling. And favors the old and the white, disproportionately. However, they also poll by knocking on doors.

 

[Gantz]

It's a well known gap in polling. And favors the old and the white, disproportionately. However, they also poll by knocking on doors.

Thanks! So polls are just another tool for media hype.

 

[maximum360]

I'll slightly disagree with most of liberal GAF here not that I don't have many many major issues with the coverage of news. I'll say most people generally think their side is always receiving poor treatment from the media when the media is a complex gangly mess that has many different biases operating in conjunction with each other at the same time.

I may be an Obama supporter but I value objectivity far more than positive coverage of my candidate of choice. There's a fundamental problem with the dumbing down of the issues and sensationalizing the non-issues of the campaigns. It does the country a disservice in the end and it is the reason why government as a whole isn't as effective as it should be. In the end though, it just boils down to what direction these media corporations want to go. Do they report the facts, hold government officials accountable by being a pseudo-watchdog or offer entertainment? If I want entertainment I'll check in with the major networks during prime time.

 

[Ether_Snake]

But at a time where votes are machine-counted (a highly contested system) polls just create expectations that allows manipulation of results to slip through unchallenged.

 

[Frank the Great]

But at a time where votes are machine-counted (a highly contested system) polls just create expectations that allow manipulation of results to slip through unchallenged.

As opposed to having no idea what the outcome will be, thus making ANY result seem acceptable?

 

[Tamanon]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/12/AR2008091202415.html

Probably not the best article to come out from one of your economic advisers today.

But that doesn't make any of it true. Things today just aren't that bad. Sure, there are trouble spots in the economy, as the government takeover of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and jitters about Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers, amply demonstrate. And unemployment figures are up a bit, too. None of this, however, is cause for depression -- or exaggerated Depression comparisons.

Overall, the pessimists are up against an insurmountable reality: In the last reported quarter, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3 percent, adjusted for inflation. That's virtually the same as the 3.4 percent average growth rate since -- yes -- the Great Depression.

:lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

As opposed to having no idea what the outcome will be, thus making ANY result seem acceptable?

I'm just saying they are irrelevant.

 

[Macam]

Speaking of which, has anybody else here read The Survivor - by John Harris. It is an excellent biography of the Clinton Administration.

Just wanted to say thanks for pointing that book out. I've been looking for some new reading material and I'm tearing through the book now solely based on your recommendation. It's great stuff, so I just wanted to second the post and recommendation for anyone interested in some recent historical reading.

 

[deadbeef]

The polls are probably selectively sampled in order to play up one side versus the other and keep the horse race aspect of the campaign going.

 

[Stoney Mason]

I may be an Obama supporter but I value objectivity far more than positive coverage of my candidate of choice. There's a fundamental problem with the dumbing down of the issues and sensationalizing the non-issues of the campaigns. It does the country a disservice in the end and it is the reason why government as a whole isn't as effective as it should be. In the end though, it just boils down to what direction these media corporations want to go. Do they report the facts, hold government officials accountable by being a pseudo-watchdog or offer entertainment? If I want entertainment I'll check in with the major networks during prime time.

I have no dispute about the rise of entertainment factor within news that dumbs down actual news. I don't always agree with GAF on who the media is favoring or attacking at the moment.

 

[jandar]

It's a well known gap in polling. And favors the old and the white, disproportionately. However, they also poll by knocking on doors.

Its the same thing with the exit polls during election day. The vast majority of voters before 4PM are retired people on fixed incomes or unemployed people on welfare. This is why they are often wrong.

Hence it skews too far to either side depending upon the precinct that is being polled.

 

[Synth_floyd]

Instead of having a completely machine run voting system, why not use the machine to record the vote, which then gets printed out. The voter can confirm that what they entered was correct and then the PAPER PRINT OUT is the official vote. Thus you have the ease of use of a machine plus the paper trail of PAPER.

 

[Stoney Mason]

Also kind of neat about that Princeton site that someone pointed out. They have a map that is size relative based on electoral votes. Kind of minor but helps keep things in perspective.

 

[Keylime]

The polls are probably selectively sampled in order to play up one side versus the other and keep the horse race aspect of the campaign going.

Not so much actually. According to 538 (aka the bible), there are only a few polling groups that seem to consistently skew towards one political party or another. There are also some polling groups that are more credible than others.

It's safe to say, though, that polling information is as non-biased as possible.

Best bet is to check FiveThirtyEight.com

They take all the known information about the various polling agencies and factor in reliability and potential leaning into their numbers. Best polling website BY FAR.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Not so much actually. According to 538 (aka the bible), there are only a few polling groups that seem to consistently skew towards one political party or another. There are also some polling groups that are more credible than others.

It's safe to say, though, that polling information is as non-biased as possible.

Best bet is to check FiveThirtyEight.com

They take all the known information about the various polling agencies and factor in reliability and potential leaning into their numbers. Best polling website BY FAR.

Speaking of which, note this bit from today's poll update:

Over in Iowa, Ann Sezler’s poll for the Des Moines Register has Barack Obama with a comfortable lead of 12 points. Selzer polls have had a pronounced Democratic lean this year, and so the results need to be interpreted in that context (Obama led by 17 points in their poll in February) -- if Selzer polled all 50 states, we’d likely wind up with a very blue map. Of course, Selzer polls are also the highest-rated in our database, and nailed the Iowa caucuses this year.

The pollster with the heaviest Democratic lean is their most highly rated.

 

[Keylime]

Speaking of which, note this bit from today's poll update:


The pollster with the heaviest Democratic lean is their most highly rated.

Hmph...so what does that mean? That polling sites in general seem to slight Democrats?

Leaning towards one party over the other and being the highest rated seems odd.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Hmph...so what does that mean? That polling sites in general seem to slight Democrats?

Leaning towards one party over the other and being the highest rated seems odd.

They detail how the rankings are calculated on the site. Looks like it's based on performance against actuals in the primaries (both Dem and GOP). So a lean one way or the other may or may not translate to the general. But I thought it was worth noting.

Also: Here comes Biden.

Biden speech to take hard hit at McCain

Charlotte, N.C.—Joe Biden will deliver a high-profile speech intended as the first attack in a sustained anti-McCain offensive in a new speech called "Bush 44" he'll deliver tomorrow in the key battleground state of Michigan.

While the lines of attack have long been drawn—as the title indicates, Biden will assert that a McCain presidency would amount to a third Bush term and will focus on the Republican's domestic policies and harsh campaign tactics—the new speech will be more detailed, comprehensive and aggressive, a campaign aide told Politico.

Biden will deliver the speech in St. Clair Shores, Mich., which is located in Macomb County—the area whose voters inspired Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg to coin the term “Reagan Democrats.” The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Obama with a 2-point lead in the state, which Democrats won by slim margins in the last two elections.

The speech is touted as matching the aggressive new strategy the Obama campaign has promised to unleash in the remaining days of the campaign to counter the recent poll gains of John McCain and running mate Sarah Palin.

Biden until now has received considerably less media attention than Palin, in part because his speeches have seemed more intended to appeal to crowds than to make news, and the speech seems to be intended to integrate him more into the broader campaign strategy and to use him as a super-surrogate to take high-profile hits at McCain.

The campaign is emphasizing Biden’s unique standing to deliver those hits, based on his longtime relationship with the Arizona senator, stretching back to the early 1970s when McCain served as Biden’s Navy liaison to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

I've been saying to watch how hard Obama's camp comes out swinging on Monday. Making Biden more visible is a good start. Should be fun.

 

[AniHawk]

They detail how the rankings are calculated on the site. Looks like it's based on performance against actuals in the primaries (both Dem and GOP). So a lean one way or the other may or may not translate to the general. But I thought it was worth noting.

Also: Here comes Biden.

How dare he talk about Sarah Palin that way, bringing gender and age into this. "Bush 44." Ugh. Republicans have a right to be outraged at this nonsense.

 

[Y2Kev]

Wonder what Palin thinks about Lehman

 

[Tamanon]

Wonder what Palin thinks about Lehman

Lehman? How do you think I got five kids?

 

[AniHawk]

Lehman? How do you think I got five kids?

www.instantrimshot.com

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

i hope biden's speech doesn't fall by the wayside or get ignored in lieu of some mccain shenanigans. america needs to know how amazing this man is. hail biden. rah rah.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Wonder what Palin thinks about Lehman

"Lehman? I'm neighbors with Lehman. I can see him from my house!"

i hope biden's speech doesn't fall by the wayside or get ignored in lieu of some mccain shenanigans. america needs to know how amazing this man is. hail biden. rah rah.

It sounds like the Obama camp is going to try and make his speach tomorrow the focal point of the campaign. Kick off the next round.

 

[tanod]

Wonder what Palin thinks about Lehman

That's what she called those boys in college and the name of her yet-to-be-born 6th child.

 

[mj1108]

i hope biden's speech doesn't fall by the wayside or get ignored in lieu of some mccain shenanigans. america needs to know how amazing this man is. hail biden. rah rah.

At this rate, I wonder what they'll come up with for tomorrow to take the focus off of anything that either a) the Obama camp says and b) talking about any issues.

 

[scorcho]

wait? Biden's actually awake? i thought Fred Thompson absorbed some of Biden's life energy and left him incapacitated in some bed.

 

[soul creator]

At this rate, I wonder what they'll come up with for tomorrow to take the focus off of anything that either a) the Obama camp says and b) talking about any issues.

McCain will announce his Cabinet. It'll have inexperienced members from every possible ethnic group and gender, rendering them impervious to criticism!

 

[Tamanon]

At this rate, I wonder what they'll come up with for tomorrow to take the focus off of anything that either a) the Obama camp says and b) talking about any issues.

Lehman and Merrill Lynch

 

[Pakkidis]

McCain will announce his Cabinet. It'll have inexperienced members from every possible ethnic group and gender, rendering them impervious to criticism!

I pretty sure he already promised some positions to some lobbyist already!

 

[Byakuya769]

How dare he talk about Sarah Palin that way, bringing gender and age into this. "Bush 44." Ugh. Republicans have a right to be outraged at this nonsense.

hahaha, sexist.

 

[Verano]

How dare he talk about Sarah Palin that way, bringing gender and age into this. "Bush 44." Ugh. Republicans have a right to be outraged at this nonsense.

 

[Tamanon]

I eagerly await McCain announcing General Petraeus as his Secretary of Defense in a couple weeks.

 

[kkaabboomm]

msnbc is airing some in-depth thing on sarah palin, and omg, she is my most favorite person ever

 

[numble]

I eagerly await McCain announcing General Petraeus as his Secretary of Defense in a couple weeks.

Must be civilian.

By statute the secretary must be a civilian who has not served in the active component of the armed forces for at least 10 years.

 

[Tamanon]

Must be civilian.

I know. He's already had people saying that he was considering Petraeus for VP. Another civilian only position

 

[speculawyer]

How dare he talk about Sarah Palin that way, bringing gender and age into this. "Bush 44." Ugh. Republicans have a right to be outraged at this nonsense.

You joke but I bet that in a few day's there will be some cons that will bring this up.

 

[scorcho]

Wonder what Palin thinks about Lehman

she'll probably ask which brother people are talking about

 

[Trakdown]

Lehman and Merrill Lynch

And AIG.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122142474136033581.html?mod=special_coverage

Insurer Looks to Sell Automotive Business, Annuities Unit;
It Seeks $10 Billion in Fresh Capital as Downgrade Threatens

 

[PhoenixDark]

At this rate, I wonder what they'll come up with for tomorrow to take the focus off of anything that either a) the Obama camp says and b) talking about any issues.

Obama camp promoting homosexuality at a young age smh

At a rally in Charlotte, N.C., Joe Biden offered his sense of the race, in a story about his 10-year-old granddaughter, Finnegan, who slept over with "Bawack's girls" during the convention in Denver.

"So folks, I believe that's a metaphor, a metaphor for what the country is looking for," he said. "They're looking for a sleepover with people they like."

Politico's Victoria McGrane reports that Biden typically tells the sleepover story to make a point about Obama's normalcy — that he's someone you'd be friends with. The notion that America wants a sleepover was a new twist, but the audience loved it.

UPDATE: Asked what Biden meant, spokesman David Wade clarifies (?): "Could you imagine a sleepover with Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, Phil Gramm and George Bush? I couldn't either."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

 

[harSon]

Wonder what Palin thinks about Lehman

"In what way Charlie?"

 

[giga]

as gruber said, perhaps this will refocus the presidential campaign coverage on the economy rather than bullshit.

 

[speculawyer]

Also kind of neat about that Princeton site that someone pointed out. They have a map that is size relative based on electoral votes. Kind of minor but helps keep things in perspective.

That is actually really cool. I can't tell you how many times GOPers will point to maps of massive amounts of red as if it means anything . . . square footage of land do not vote, people do.

And a lot of those states still have larger amounts of area than they really should since rural states like Alaska have a much much larger electoral vote per resident voter ratio.

(Since each state gets 1 electoral vote per congressional district plus 2 for the 2 senators.)