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PoliGAF Interim Thread of cunning stunts and desperate punts

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D

DeathbyVolcano

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I honestly don't see Obama winning VA and not OH. I think OH is a necessary condition for VA.
Click to expand...

Polls don't really seem that way though.

It's like a dead heat in Ohio right now...and Obama's up by a few point in VA. I don't know.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Y2Kev said:
I honestly don't see Obama winning VA and not OH. I think OH is a necessary condition for VA.
Click to expand...
Obama has a far larger organization in Virginia and far more loyalty among the dem party establishment there.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Y2Kev said:
I honestly don't see Obama winning VA and not OH. I think OH is a necessary condition for VA.
Click to expand...
Well . . . that is kinda my thinking . . . if Obama wins VA, that means he has mostly likely already won MI, MN, IA, PA, OH, NM, CO and maybe even IN.
 
M

Macam

Banned
besada said:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/22/dirty-secret-of-the-bailo_n_128294.html

I've just gotten off the phone expressing my displeasure to my congressperson. I hope others will do the same. Regardless of anyone's opinion on the necessity of a bailout, the idea that we'd turn over $700 billion to an appointed official with zero oversight is ridiculous.
Click to expand...

Worth repeating. And to further things along a bit:

http://www.congress.org/congressorg/home/

http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/

Lack of oversight is part of what got us into this mess in the first place. This is something I imagine a decent share of Republicans will begrudgingly get behind though, to be fair, all parties will be susceptible to caving just to make a showcase of getting something done, however irresponsibly. Call/e-mail your representatives asap.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
29bzs50.jpg
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Stoney Mason said:
For the first time, I'm starting to think Virginia is possible. That 3 point lead gets even bigger when you look at registered voters.

Registered Voters VA:
Obama 50, McCain 44
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WHOA!!! I've been waiting for you to change your mind about VA.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Frank the Great said:
Why? The demographics are very different in the two states. They really have nothing to do with each other.
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I just can't get over the idea that he could win VA.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
infiniteloop said:
Pennsylvania
O48% M45%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...tion_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2

FL
McCain on top 51% to 46%.
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Holding steady in PA, but that's a disappointing FL number. Most others have shown it closer recently. Then again, Rasmussen was the only pollster to show McCain ahead in New Mexico recently, so I'll wait for another FL poll to take it too seriously.

Edit: they did five states.

Florida
McCain 51, Obama 46

Michigan
Obama 51, McCain 44

Ohio
McCain 50, Obama 46

Pennsylvania
Obama 48, McCain 45

Virginia
McCain 50, Obama 48

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rasmussen_fl_mi_oh_pa_va_921.php

Holding steady in PA and VA, good Michigan number but disappointing FL and OH.
 
Guy Legend

Guy Legend

Member
Don't absolutely positively discount Missouri. Polls here are getting tighter now that the Palin affect wore off and Obama did beat Hillary here just barely during the primaries. Bill Clinton won it both times during his elections. What a bonus it would be if Obama carries it.
 
Z

Zeliard

Member
Cheebs said:
Obama has a far larger organization in Virginia and far more loyalty among the dem party establishment there.
Click to expand...

VA scares the shit out of me, despite the positive polling for Obama. There are some significant parts that truly bleed red. Hopefully the AA/young peeps vote puts him over the top.

By the way, what happens if there's an actual tie in the electorate vote? I've heard that possibility being thrown around, when looking at the likely toss-up states.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Zeliard said:
VA scares the shit out of me, despite the positive polling for Obama. There are some significant parts that truly bleed red. Hopefully the AA/young peeps vote puts him over the top.

By the way, what happens if there's an actual tie in the electorate vote? I've heard that possibility being thrown around, when looking at the likely toss-up states.
Click to expand...
The House decides the president in an electoral tie.

Obama wins.
 
S

soul creator

Member
Zeliard said:
By the way, what happens if there's an actual tie in the electorate vote? I've heard that possibility being thrown around, when looking at the likely toss-up states.
Click to expand...

Obama vs. McCain in a 1 on 1 MLG Halo match
 
B

BobLoblaw

Banned
Rur0ni said:
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virgina look good to me. It's imperative that he holds Michigan. I get the impression that Pennsylvania has a diminished ROI scenario for McCain.

Virginia... if it keeps trending lean (0 to 6) Obama, then I think McCain is fucked there come election day due to GOTV. AA turnout needs to be strong.
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It will be. Not just there, but everywhere. Look for record numbers.
 
R

Rhindle

Member
Cheebs said:
OH and FL don't matter.


Colorado and Virginia are the new OH and FL.
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FL (and to a certain extent NC) seem to be the back-up plan, in case they lose PA, MI or any of the Kerry Midwestern states. FL and NC are probably is not terribly correlated with what's happening in the Midwest.

I've always felt that VA was a better prospect than OH. OH was alwways going to be tough with the large white blue collar demographic.
 
R

Rhindle

Member
Zeliard said:
Each state delegation would get a vote, rather than individual members, right?
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Yes. I'm not sure what the state delegation breakdown is.

The VP would be elected by a straight vote in the Senate, so Biden would be in for sure. Or if the Red Team prevails in the House, they could vote Obama in as VP in the Senate.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Rhindle said:
I've always felt that VA was a better prospect than OH. OH was alwways going to be tough with the large white blue collar demographic.
Click to expand...
I would go as far to say not only that but I think NC is more likely to switch than Ohio. The rustbelt seems to have a negative view of Obama more so than most other regions that are pre-disposed to democrats. He'll win MI and PA, but it wont be as easy as it was for say Gore.


Obama seems to outperform Democrats of the last 10 years in the south but underperforms in the North.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
Fatalah said:
Electoral-vote.com and Princeton's page aren't as lopsided as 538. I feel most confident when the 3 of them are in congruence with each other. What the dillio.
Click to expand...


whats the link to the princeton page? i forgot to bookmark it.
 
M

maximum360

Member
Rhindle said:
FL (and to a certain extent NC) seem to be the back-up plan, in case they lose PA, MI or any of the Kerry Midwestern states. FL and NC are probably is not terribly correlated with what's happening in the Midwest.

I've always felt that VA was a better prospect than OH. OH was always going to be tough with the large racist demographic.
Click to expand...

Fixed. :D

In reality though, it's the same problem he faces in MI and PA. The 18 months of we don't really know Obama or claims of him being "exotic" by some in the media don't really help either.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Probably already up here but . . . Tina Fey on playing Palin.

She even shrugged off her resemblance to Gov. Sarah Palin, whom she won raves for portraying on the season premiere of NBC's "Saturday Night Live."

"But then my kid saw her on TV and said, `That's Mommy!'" she said.

She was more open about her thoughts on reprising the "SNL" role. As in, she'd prefer not to.

"I want to be done playing this lady Nov. 5," she said. "So if anybody can help me be done playing this lady Nov. 5, that would be good for me."
Click to expand...
:D
 
R

Rhindle

Member
maximum360 said:
Fixed. :D

In reality though, it's the same problem he faces in MI and PA. The 18 months of we don't really know Obama or claims of him being "exotic" by some in the media don't really help either.
Click to expand...
Another factor: I think that if we see a "Bradley effect" in the election, it is most likely to manifest itself in the Midwest. If Obama is leading by a just couple of points in the polls come election day in PA and MI (or OH), that could mean trouble.

I don't think you're likely to see a Bradley effect the South, since admitting racial prejudice is kind of socially acceptable there.
 
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