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PoliGAF Interim Thread of Tears/Lapel Pins (ScratchingHisCheek-Gate)

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X

Xeke

Banned
bud said:
what is the general consesus regarding last night's debate? who won?

i haven't seen it yet.
Click to expand...

It's really not worth watching. The first 50 minutes was like reading the tabloids.:lol
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
"Do you love the flag?"

"Do you love America as much as Reverend Wright does?"

Now fill 50 minutes with that and you've got the first half. The second half was random policy questions with the only big news being Hillary Clinton wanting to create a security umbrella in the Middle East against Iran.

BTW, apparently there were 8 crowd shots of Chelsea throughout the debate. None that I saw of Obama supporters. How odd;)
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Triumph said:
Really? I'd like you to link me those demographics.
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Ohio and Indiana are basically sister states, just as Ohio and Michigan are. All three states feature blue collar workers who work in predominantly factory/manufacturing jobs. Unless something big happens between now and the primary, I fully expect Hillary to win Indiana
 
M

monchi-kun

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Ohio and Indiana are basically sister states, just as Ohio and Michigan are. All three states feature blue collar workers who work in predominantly factory/manufacturing jobs. Unless something big happens between now and the primary, I fully expect Hillary to win Indiana
Click to expand...

just because one sister puts out doesn't mean the other will....


...i know this :(
 
T

Triumph

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Ohio and Indiana are basically sister states, just as Ohio and Michigan are. All three states feature blue collar workers who work in predominantly factory/manufacturing jobs. Unless something big happens between now and the primary, I fully expect Hillary to win Indiana
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So basically you're talking out of your ass. Noted.
 
H

harSon

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
The demographics favor Hillary, as they did in Ohio and Penn.
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Obama's numbers typically surge by quite a bit once he starts campaigning, this has allowed him to close large gaps in most states. What do you think is going to happen when he is starting out with a lead? :lol
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
harSon said:
Obama's numbers typically surge by quite a bit once he starts campaigning, this has allowed him to close large gaps in most states. What do you think is going to happen when he is starting out with a lead? :lol
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You make a good point, but I still expect Hillary to win.

reilio said:
Michigan and Ohio are sister states?!

Oof.
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I live in Michigan, and I have family in Ohio - there are very few differences in the demographics. There are more important things on our minds than Ann Arbor vs Columbus
 
B

bob_arctor

Tough_Smooth
Tamanon said:
"Do you love the flag?"

"Do you love America as much as Reverend Wright does?"

Now fill 50 minutes with that and you've got the first half. The second half was random policy questions with the only big news being Hillary Clinton wanting to create a security umbrella in the Middle East against Iran.

BTW, apparently there were 8 crowd shots of Chelsea throughout the debate. None that I saw of Obama supporters. How odd;)
Click to expand...

Triumph mentioned him so despite the very real possibility I might just lose it here at work, I went ahead and looked for David Brook's latest:

No Whining About The Media

Three quick points on the Democratic debate tonight:
Click to expand...

First, Democrats, and especially Obama supporters, are going to jump all over ABC for the choice of topics: too many gaffe questions, not enough policy questions.
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I understand the complaints, but I thought the questions were excellent. The journalist’s job is to make politicians uncomfortable, to explore evasions, contradictions and vulnerabilities. Almost every question tonight did that. The candidates each looked foolish at times, but that’s their own fault.
Click to expand...

We may not like it, but issues like Jeremiah Wright, flag lapels and the Tuzla airport will be important in the fall. Remember how George H.W. Bush toured flag factories to expose Michael Dukakis. It’s legitimate to see how the candidates will respond to these sorts of symbolic issues.
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The rest is, well, read it for yourself. Here's the part that pissed me off (more than I already was):

The second pledge was just as bad. Nobody knows what the situation in Iraq will be like. To pledge an automatic withdrawal is just insane. A mature politician would’ve been honest and said: I fully intend to withdraw, but I want to know what the reality is at that moment.
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*Sigh* Many of the comments cheered me up somewhat at least.
 
H

harSon

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
You make a good point, but I still expect Hillary to win.



I live in Michigan, and I have family in Ohio - there are very few differences in the demographics. There are more important things on our minds than Ann Arbor vs Columbus
Click to expand...

May I ask why? It's every bit as close to Illinois as it is Ohio and also has a similar demographic breakdown.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
This little kid is awesome. "Mr. Obama, I won my class election, and I just want to know how I can become president" :lol

Edit: Obama just called him "well spoken" (the kid is black) :lol
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
A greedy part of me hopes things drag on until at least Indiana. Not that I think anything is changing at this point (or any point in the last two months), but it would still make for a nice change of pace to have something presidential-election-related in Indiana that people actually paid attention to and isn't a winner-takes-all affair with a foregone conclusion.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
harSon said:
May I ask why? It's every bit as close to Illinois as it is Ohio and also has a similar demographic breakdown.
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Hm, I wonder why Obama won Illinois...

The biggest problem I see with Obama's general election campaign is his struggles with middle class/lower middle class blue collar voters, as well as his struggles with older white voters - many of whom could move over to McCain. When you look at the general election state polls, McCain is beating Obama in Ohio and Penn; Hillary beats McCain in both. So the question is "where are these democrat votes going?" McCain has an edge he doesn't deserve in both of those states, and he's up by double digits on Obama in Florida; there is even talk within the GOP that Michigan, a state that always goes democrat, can be a swing state this year. How can he possibly win anything if he can't win those huge states?

With respect to Indiana, he's going to once again run into those demographics. So of course his chances don't strike me as good, at least on paper. Sure his numbers go up when he starts campaigning in states, but we'll see what happens
 
T

Triumph

Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
A greedy part of me hopes things drag on until at least Indiana. Not that I think anything is changing at this point (or any point in the last two months), but it would still make for a nice change of pace to have something presidential-election-related in Indiana that people actually paid attention to and isn't a winner-takes-all affair with a foregone conclusion.
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She's not getting out of it before May 6th, I can pretty much guarantee. If he can win Indiana and blow her out in NC, she'll probably drop out.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
Hillary will win Indiana for 2 reasons based on polls.

1. That LA Times Poll had HUUUGE undecides like 20% or something and in nearly every state Hillary wins undecideds.

2. SurveyUSA>>>>LA Times in accuracy so far and SurveyUSA has her way ahead.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Do they count the proper black people in the working class middle and lower class section?

Because I still don't understand how he can win 85 percent of the black vote, but get crushed in the working class number.

Lets be honest, most black people aren't rich. Most of them are in the working class bracket.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Cheebs said:
Hillary will win Indiana for 2 reasons based on polls.

1. That LA Times Poll had HUUUGE undecides like 20% or something and in nearly every state Hillary wins undecideds.

2. SurveyUSA>>>>LA Times in accuracy so far and SurveyUSA has her way ahead.
Click to expand...

Very good points Jacob
 
B

bob_arctor

Tough_Smooth
mckmas8808 said:
Do they count the proper black people in the working class middle and lower class section?

Because I still don't understand how he can win 85 percent of the black vote, but get crushed in the working class number.

Lets be honest, most black people aren't rich. Most of them are in the working class bracket.
Click to expand...

Why, hello there, big giant elephant in the room!!
 
H

harSon

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Hm, I wonder why Obama won Illinois...

The biggest problem I see with Obama's general election campaign is his struggles with middle class/lower middle class blue collar voters, as well as his struggles with older white voters - many of whom could move over to McCain. When you look at the general election state polls, McCain is beating Obama in Ohio and Penn; Hillary beats McCain in both. So the question is "where are these democrat votes going?" McCain has an edge he doesn't deserve in both of those states, and he's up by double digits on Obama in Florida; there is even talk within the GOP that Michigan, a state that always goes democrat, can be a swing state this year. How can he possibly win anything if he can't win those huge states?

With respect to Indiana, he's going to once again run into those demographics. So of course his chances don't strike me as good, at least on paper. Sure his numbers go up when he starts campaigning in states, but we'll see what happens
Click to expand...

Pollings are obviously skewed due to the fact the the Democrats are still in the middle of a bitter battle. The numbers will change if Obama is elected as the Democratic nominee. I'm confused as to why you neglect polling and election trends when speculating about the potential winner in Indiana yet use it as the main argument when talking about the General Election.

Demographic wise, Indiana is somewhere between Illinois and Ohio.
 
T

Triumph

Banned
I'd like to see how close to correct SUSA is on PA before we keep using them as the gold standard. While they have been more accurate than others, Obama has outperformed their polls in plenty of contests.
 
Schattenjäger

Schattenjäger

Gabriel Knight
wow, I never knew PD worked for the census bureau.

and here goes Cheebs again..I guess he trying to lower that batting average to under .200
 
E

electricpirate

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Am I missing something here?
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I think PD is riffing off what Biden said of Obama, "he's an articulate, well spoken black man..." or something along those lines.

I thought Undecideds just started breaking for hilldawg in Texas and Ohio, but in VA, MD, and such they broke heavily for Obama, why he heavily outperformed polling in those states.
 
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