The transcript of the first debate is here. Several pieces of survey evidence point to an Obama win. Obama did better among undecided voters in a CBS survey [PDF]. Frank Luntzs Fox focus group (read the 11:35 entry) showed that a majority was moved by Obamas performance, especially his criticism of McCains judgment errors on the Iraq war. CNN/Opinion Dynamics has a phone poll showing that 51% thought Obama won vs. 38% McCain.
Update. A nugget: the CBS report PDF says that among uncommitted voters, 46% came away with a better opinion of Obama, 8% worse, and 46% no change. For comparison, 32% came away with a better opinion of McCain, 21% worse, and 47% no change. Obamas better/worse split was 5.8 to 1 compared with McCains 1.5 to 1. There were a number of shifts in Obamas favor, the largest on being more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you. Views of McCain didnt change much, perhaps because he is considered to be a known quantity. The real targets in this debate were the uncommitteds, and they came away liking Obama.
A general comment: partisans are generally unable to assess debates accurately. They observe the candidates from a polarized viewpoint. Witness the highly divergent reactions among partisans here, here, and here. The last one seems closest to what a typical uncommitted person thought. In this regard I found the surveys to be clarifying.
CNN had a test group insta-reaction showing reactions among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. in a tracker plot at the bottom of the screen. This was addictive to watch. Obama spent more time well above the average, though he sometimes sagged toward the end of his longer answers. On the other hand, during an answer on Russia I noticed Obamas numbers soaring among all three groups.
According to the same tracker, McCain scored well at certain points when talking about the financial sector crisis and about runaway federal spending. McCain called for a freeze on non-defense non-entitlement spending, which turns out to be only a small fraction of the budget. But people dont know that. When McCain made repeated attacks on Obamas readiness and experience, audience reaction tended to go downward, especially toward the end. He came off as mean, even to some conservatives (heres an an extended reaction). Heres a reaction from Washington Monthly.
My own quick reaction: The criticism that Obama is a poor match for McCain in foreign policy is over. Substantively, their prior positions came through fairly clearly. In some ways the debate was a draw. McCain was calmer than I had been expecting him to be, but his contempt for Obama shone through. He never looked Obama in the eye. This error of tone may be discussed over the weekend.
Overall, I believe this was a bad night for John McCain. He needed to win, and he didnt even get a clear draw. Look for Obamas lead to solidify or widen over the weekend.
Update: MediaCurves has Obama winning 61-39 among independents. Obama led in this group on all foreign policy issues, including Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran. The largest gap was for Russia, the answer I flagged earlier.
