I know that you're not, you're just playing with the market. But I thought I'd mention it just to try to forestall anybody jumping on that trend and freaking out. Not that there's anybody in PoliGAF who would wildly overreact based on a tiny move on a commission-based (not bookmaking) prediction market.
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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I know that you're not, you're just playing with the market. But I thought I'd mention it just to try to forestall anybody jumping on that trend and freaking out. Not that there's anybody in PoliGAF who would wildly overreact based on a tiny move on a commission-based (not bookmaking) prediction market.
StopMakingSense
Member
.
Black Mamba
Member
Romney + 1, a 2 point shift towards Obama.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ht/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
New Silver article.
I couldn't believe the news myself. It's like a completely awesome blindside by team Obama. Holy shit.
RustyNails
Member
Wanna know the truth?
It was the media's job. But they were too focused on bitching, moaning and Wolf Blitzing about minute presidential race changes. They completely botched the Libya incident and failed to shine light on obamacare's intricacies. Print once again saves the day, our truly the last bastion of news integrity. Here's my quote from the mediafail thread from few days ago:
According to that 538 article, there are three instances where the result between an incumbent and a challenger was different than polling results. In those three instances, the incumbent won two out of the three times. Both of the incumbent wins were where the difference was greater than 0.6. The loss was when the difference was 0.6.
RustyNails
Member
So I guess nothing to do till the new polls come out. It's time for another Obama Hillary fanfic...who's up for it?
Half and half
Member
That's called the evening shift for Republicans.
The Librarian
Banned
Sunday is poll day. PPP is coming out with polls of Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire. As for the fiction, I think it's Rin Tin Tim's turn.
I think fox should be "Proto-News. Talk about things that are not news until they become meta-news."
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I went to a brewery yesterday that just came out with a new beer called "Time to Panic Pale Ale"
Black Mamba
Member
bad news for white house brew
Made with hops soaked in Diablos' tears.
I want the next author to drop the phrase "slickled his peeny" somewhere in the story.
Is your girlfriend sane at least?
Fragamemnon
Member
I keep forgetting what it is like outside of Chapel Hill and Durham.
And Charlotte
Yup. I don't know how she is with that family. They think I brainwashed her into being a liberal though. See, she's a woman and can't make decisions for herself "without a man's help." Her families words. Meanwhile she believes in a woman's right to choose and is personally benefiting from Obamacare but they don't understand why she doesn't swoon over Ol' Mittens.
Part of the conversation "He doesn't care about you, just his people!"
Me: "And who are his people?"
"Oh...you know..."
What good Christians practicing love, patience, and grace.
I love watching Obama's chances go up everyday. Feels so good.
I keep forgetting what it is like outside of Chapel Hill and Durham.
I had the chance to move to Durham last year. I'm an idiot.
I feel like I didn't get enough reaction on my last one. Granted, I posted it before 9AM! But I am putting down my pen until Hillary is prez.
Black Mamba
Member
http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-poll-romney-obama-close-to-the-end/
Romney +1 in NC. Might have been posted already
The gap in NC seems to have shrunk (Ras says +6, but with his lean it's smaller). Romney is probably up 2-3 in NC right now but that's smaller than what it seemed a week ago or so.
Romney +1 in NC. Might have been posted already
The gap in NC seems to have shrunk (Ras says +6, but with his lean it's smaller). Romney is probably up 2-3 in NC right now but that's smaller than what it seemed a week ago or so.
That's the same result Civitas had when they last polled on 10/21
Hobbestetrician
Member
So Romney's lead is shrinking in an absolutely essential state most places have already put on his map but he is supposed to be also closing the gap in other battleground states that he has never had the lead in?
The strangest momentum I have ever seen.
Black Mamba
Member
Mason Dixon poll has Akin down 2 to McCaskill.
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=...409e3e95a55/508b1af15cdd4.pdf.pdf&chrome=true
Akin with 28% favorability and yet in it according to this poll. Women only 47% for McCaskill.
What the holy fuck. Seriously, if Akin pulls this out (which I think he can), Missouri needs to be shipped off to Antarctica
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=...409e3e95a55/508b1af15cdd4.pdf.pdf&chrome=true
Akin with 28% favorability and yet in it according to this poll. Women only 47% for McCaskill.
What the holy fuck. Seriously, if Akin pulls this out (which I think he can), Missouri needs to be shipped off to Antarctica
The Lamonster
Member
Akin will not win.
Souldriver
Member
Belgian story here...
A lot of my relatives have been asking me who will win the US elections. I always say "probably Obama", followed by a short explanation of the EV system and how it favors Obama more than the popular vote. They always respond by saying "but the news said its a tie". So you can take solace im the fact that even non-american media are running with this narrative.
Now lets hope Obama actually wins. You know, for my credibility... Oh yeah, and so the world doesnt become a worse place...
Edit: Oh, and just about everyone I know is rooting for Obama. Funny how that goes huh. If the world could vote, we'd see like an 80% Obama landslide.
A lot of my relatives have been asking me who will win the US elections. I always say "probably Obama", followed by a short explanation of the EV system and how it favors Obama more than the popular vote. They always respond by saying "but the news said its a tie". So you can take solace im the fact that even non-american media are running with this narrative.
Now lets hope Obama actually wins. You know, for my credibility... Oh yeah, and so the world doesnt become a worse place...
Edit: Oh, and just about everyone I know is rooting for Obama. Funny how that goes huh. If the world could vote, we'd see like an 80% Obama landslide.
TacticalFox88
Banned
I honestly rather know the mentality and cognitive dissonance needed to convince these women to vote for that POS.
Like I want all of them who are voting for him to be sat in a giant theater and have his comments on rape and all that jazz play on a giant screen. Then ask them why the FUCK ARE YOU STILL VOTING REPUBLICAN!
I had my bank manager ask who I thought was going to win (and this is in the middle of Arkansas). I was just thinking "well shit, I hope this doesn't affect my bank account."
StopMakingSense
Member
WaPo: Virginia 51O - 47R
The Librarian
Banned
wapo said:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/2012/10/27/6ce69246-2057-11e2
Don't see the internals.
Slow polling day. But encouraging. Obama's up with big, stormproof leads in PA & NJ, and now here's a Washington Post poll showing Obama up, 51-47.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...e69246-2057-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html
(edit: ha! triple beaten! too slow, watching USC lose, hehe..)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...e69246-2057-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html
(edit: ha! triple beaten! too slow, watching USC lose, hehe..)
Damn bro, that's some hard shit. You gonna be in a position for the sweetest, salty-ass tears though.
The Librarian
Banned
lol @ Black Mamba
Hobbestetrician
Member
This plus an overtime win for my Spartans have been nice bonuses to an already good birthday.
Black Mamba
Member
WRONG THREAD LOL
Here's what I wrote:
BOOM.
RCP won't put in PPP's latest Va poll. lol
Obama would be +1 Va on RCP with these 2 polls in. Considering the other polls are Ras, Purple strategies, and Gravis all showing tie to +2R, these are good things for Obama. Seems more likely Obama is ahead in VA right now than anything else (Fox is usually solid, so might be just a noisy poll from them).
RustyNails
Member
down you go into nate silver's hopium contraption!
I think people are underestimating the notion that if Obama starts going big he might bag more votes on Election Day if people think they will be part of history again. Young people especially like events and if it looks like he is going to shellack Romney it might encourage them to come out in greater numbers thus raising enthusiasm
The problem with Romney was the GOP has always been enthused, you can't make them more excited to vote against Obama then they already are. Its why pandering to them like Romney has makes no sense
The problem with Romney was the GOP has always been enthused, you can't make them more excited to vote against Obama then they already are. Its why pandering to them like Romney has makes no sense
Black Mamba
Member
If VA is called for Obama at any point, he wins. I'm fairly confident that if he wins Fla or Va it's game over.
He's not winning either of those and losing Ohio, Wi, Nv, NH, Iowa
But what if Romney wins California?
The Librarian
Banned
I really really don't understand this. At this point I think he could go on TV and spend an hour insulting her and calling her every derogatory negative you could think of to insult a woman in general and that number wouldn't change. I really don't understand republican women. From saying they don't have a right to control what happens to their own bodies (I hope republicans were all about personal freedom and small government) to openly admitting it's okay to pay a woman less for the same work as a man. Many (of all age groups it seems) still seem okay with voting for the man saying all this crap.
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