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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
Diablos said:
2008 PA: Obama got 3,192,316 votes.
McCain got 2,586,496 votes.

Of Obama's votes, 574,930 of them came from Philly.
135,150 came from Chester County.

Obama got 710,000 votes from Philly and Chester County alone. It's what makes PA go blue every time. I think NY is going to deliver for Obama regardless, but PA may be the one to watch if the storm really gets out of hand.
Click to expand...
If? You are more hopeful than I am. Penn is going Red. This will be Obamas Katrina :(
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
HylianTom said:
Refresh my memory: for Election 2008, did the Republicans/Libertarians/right-leaners here at GAF melt-down en masse, cordially accept Obama's victory (knowing it was going to happen), or just quietly/conveniently vanish into the wall for that night?

(any good meltdown threads?)

I'm drawing a blank.
Click to expand...

Everyone knew Obama was going to win after Palin had her first tv interview. They accepted it in September
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Diablos said:
2008 PA: Obama got 3,192,316 votes.
McCain got 2,586,496 votes.

Of Obama's votes, 574,930 of them came from Philly.
135,150 came from Chester County.

Obama got 710,000 votes from Philly and Chester County alone. It's what makes PA go blue every time. I think NY is going to deliver for Obama regardless, but PA may be the one to watch if the storm really gets out of hand.
Click to expand...

so basically obama would have almost won even if he got zero votes in philly and chester county (and mccain still got those votes.) time to panic!
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Amir0x said:
ok guys, CONTEST TIME

i want people to make an electoral map for Nov 6. Use 270towin to guide you (I'll save links; no changing links after October 31). Then, in the same post, I want a popular vote margin. For "in case of tie" purposes, I also want everyone to guess the time Virginia will be called for either candidate.


The winner will get a 20 dollar gift on Steam of their choice.

Submissions over on the last day of October 2012.
Click to expand...

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=VQs

Obama:Romney 286:252

VA called at 10:05
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Loudninja said:
PPP NH:
Obama 49
Mitt Romney 47


https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/262659905440317441
Click to expand...

It's pretty amazing that we haven't heard any concern about state polling from Romney's camp, or conservatives; typically Politico and others track down some anonymous staffers to build a story like that, but they're completely quiet right now.

Nevada is gone; I think that's pretty obvious. Wisconsin is gone, too. There's some debate over Iowa, but imo early voting should carry it. Romney probably needs NH, and he certainly needs Virginia. If NH is called early on November 6th we just may be in for a short night
 
K

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
Diablos said:
2008 PA: Obama got 3,192,316 votes.
McCain got 2,586,496 votes.

Of Obama's votes, 574,930 of them came from Philly.
135,150 came from Chester County.

Obama got 710,000 votes from Philly and Chester County alone. It's what makes PA go blue every time. I think NY is going to deliver for Obama regardless, but PA may be the one to watch if the storm really gets out of hand.
Click to expand...
Forecast right now is that we're getting hit hardest tomorrow and Tuesday, clearing up by Wednesday. We'll have a week to recover, depending on how bad it gets. Should be plenty of time.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Diablos said:
2008 PA: Obama got 3,192,316 votes.
McCain got 2,586,496 votes.

Of Obama's votes, 574,930 of them came from Philly.
135,150 came from Chester County.

Obama got 710,000 votes from Philly and Chester County alone. It's what makes PA go blue every time. I think NY is going to deliver for Obama regardless, but PA may be the one to watch if the storm really gets out of hand.
Click to expand...

Holy Shit dude please stop, log off the internet, disconnect and come back when the storm does not a goddamn thing to you or your area

I say that if the storm does not directly hit Dem polling areas, like the actual voting places themselves that Diablos is banned until the day after the election
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
It's pretty amazing that we haven't heard any concern about state polling from Romney's camp, or conservatives; typically Politico and others track down some anonymous staffers to build a story like that, but they're completely quiet right now.

Nevada is gone; I think that's pretty obvious. Wisconsin is gone, too. There's some debate over Iowa, but imo early voting should carry it. Romney probably needs NH, and he certainly needs Virginia. If NH is called early on November 6th we just may be in for a short night
Click to expand...

I disagree. Nevada is still in play and WI will go Red as seen in unskewed polling.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It's pretty amazing that we haven't heard any concern about state polling from Romney's camp, or conservatives; typically Politico and others track down some anonymous staffers to build a story like that, but they're completely quiet right now.

Nevada is gone; I think that's pretty obvious. Wisconsin is gone, too. There's some debate over Iowa, but imo early voting should carry it. Romney probably needs NH, and he certainly needs Virginia. If NH is called early on November 6th we just may be in for a short night
Click to expand...

And yet, you have the Rominator winning the series in 6.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Diablos said:
2008 PA: Obama got 3,192,316 votes.
McCain got 2,586,496 votes.

Of Obama's votes, 574,930 of them came from Philly.
135,150 came from Chester County.

Obama got 710,000 votes from Philly and Chester County alone. It's what makes PA go blue every time. I think NY is going to deliver for Obama regardless, but PA may be the one to watch if the storm really gets out of hand.
Click to expand...

wait..so you're saying that if in 2008, every democrat in philly (let's ignore chester county for now) just decided to stay the fuck home, he STILL would have won??

Somehow, I don't think Obama has much to worry about this round.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Amir0x said:
ok guys, CONTEST TIME

i want people to make an electoral map for Nov 6. Use 270towin to guide you (I'll save links; no changing links after October 31). Then, in the same post, I want a popular vote margin. For "in case of tie" purposes, I also want everyone to guess the time Virginia will be called for either candidate.


The winner will get a 20 dollar gift on Steam of their choice.

Submissions over on the last day of October 2012.
Click to expand...

Here's my prediction:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=VRd

Popular vote: Romney 48.9%
Obama 48.5%

Virginia: Called at 10:49 PM.

Bonus prediction: Right-wing hypocrisy flows freely from the right-wing about getting rid of the electoral college, conveniently ignoring how the same thing happened in 2000.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
Diablos said:
2008 PA: Obama got 3,192,316 votes.
McCain got 2,586,496 votes.

Of Obama's votes, 574,930 of them came from Philly.
135,150 came from Chester County.

Obama got 710,000 votes from Philly and Chester County alone. It's what makes PA go blue every time. I think NY is going to deliver for Obama regardless, but PA may be the one to watch if the storm really gets out of hand.
Click to expand...

You are being incredibly dense.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Women are the key group keeping Obama ahead in New Hampshire. He has a 57/39 advantage with them that's just enough to make up for his trailing by a 56/39 margin with men. Romney has a 47/45 advantage with independents, but Obama's overcoming that by winning over slightly more Republican voters (9%) than Romney is Democrats (6%).
Click to expand...

From PPP poll.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
So the Des Moines Register endorsed Mittens today. This wouldn't be particularly noteworthy if it wasn't for the fact that they haven't endorsed a Republican since fricken Richard Nixon! So a newspaper that supported Democrats for 40 years NOW decides to endorse a Republican, one that happens to be Mitt Romney:

The president’s prescription upon entering office was a dose of government stimulus, which was the right call because it put cash in the pockets of consumers, made investments in vital infrastructure and kept millions of teachers and police officers on the job.

That stimulus was necessary to bridge the nation from recession to recovery, but the time is past for more government stimulus.

Consumers must feel more confident about their own economic futures to begin spending on the products and services that power the economy. A renewed sense of confidence will spark renewed investment by American companies. Industry will return to full production and hiring will begin again.

That should come with Mitt Romney in the White House.
Click to expand...

There is not a lot of difference between the two candidates’ short-term economic plans, as both are heavy on a promise of tax cuts for the middle class but short on details. Romney’s plan, however, goes beyond helping the middle class with tax breaks.

Throughout the campaign, he has expressed faith in the private sector to fuel a more robust economic recovery if it has more confidence that the federal government will not be an obstacle. Romney has a strategy for job growth through tax and regulatory relief for small businesses, encouraging all forms of domestic energy production, education that prepares graduates with job skills, expanding foreign trade and reducing the burden of federal deficits.

That formula, coupled with his business acumen, should unlock this nation’s economic potential.
Click to expand...

Romney should not squander an opportunity to build consensus in Washington by wasting time on issues that animate many in his party. We cannot rewind the clock on progress for minorities, women, gays and lesbians. We must make it easier for immigrants to come here to live and work legally and stop making criminals of those who are living here lawfully, paying taxes and raising families. The federal government must continue to insist on clean air and water and encourage clean and renewable energy.
Click to expand...

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...omic-vision?Frontpage&gcheck=1&nclick_check=1

So...many...contortions...
 
G

giga

Member
i6Em+


NYC will probably be out of power for at least two weeks. And if states don't submit their numbers within two days of the election, they're SOL and won't be counted in the tally. Obama's "win" just got a lot tougher without NY.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
giga said:
i6Em+


NYC will probably be out of power for at least two weeks. And if states don't submit their numbers within two days of the election, they're SOL and won't be counted in the tally. Obama's "win" just got a lot tougher without NY.
Click to expand...

This will not affect Republican votes getting turned in tho.

You should make a note of that.
 
D

Diablos

Member
giga said:
i6Em+


NYC will probably be out of power for at least two weeks. And if states don't submit their numbers within two days of the election, they're SOL and won't be counted in the tally. Obama's "win" just got a lot tougher without NY.
Click to expand...
How the fuck are people going to be able to vote?
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If this storm does shut down power for that long, what are the government's methods for delaying voting day? Is there any way they can do it? You'd think if 5 states were out of it, they'd be able to delay it.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Oblivion said:
So the Des Moines Register endorsed Mittens today. This wouldn't be particularly noteworthy if it wasn't for the fact that they haven't endorsed a Republican since fricken Richard Nixon! So a newspaper that supported Democrats for 40 years NOW decides to endorse a Republican, one that happens to be Mitt Romney:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...omic-vision?Frontpage&gcheck=1&nclick_check=1

So...many...contortions...
Click to expand...

Yup, even more hilarious is that fact that Romney lost to Santorum here and everyone in the state is for the Wind Credit but Romney. And the cherry on top is 2/3 of the state has already voted, DSM is being super relevant now lol
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Drek said:
So good.

Also, the recent Virginia numbers are really interesting when you consider that they ignore what Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson might do to Romney's numbers.
Click to expand...

I thought i heard Virgil Goode's numbers had been tanking recently?

no matter, Obama has virginia locked up. The only states I'm concerned about are Colorado, Iowa, and MAYBE Florida.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
giga said:
i6Em+


NYC will probably be out of power for at least two weeks. And if states don't submit their numbers within two days of the election, they're SOL and won't be counted in the tally. Obama's "win" just got a lot tougher without NY.
Click to expand...

Source? Why would they cut power?
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Drek said:
So good.

Also, the recent Virginia numbers are really interesting when you consider that they ignore what Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson might do to Romney's numbers.
Click to expand...

Another point we keep forgetting. Most third party candidates fizzle out, but I believe Goode could be steal a decent amount of votes from Romney in Virginia - just as Johnson should steal some from Obama in NM. The difference is that NM will go to Obama by a large margin whereas Virginia will be close enough for Goode to throw the state to someone.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Oblivion said:
Romney’s plan, however, goes beyond helping the middle class with tax breaks.
Click to expand...

Does Romney's plan cut taxes for the middle class at all? I clearly remember seeing that chart that showed it raised taxes for everyone except for the very rich.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
A 6 point Obama lead is an outlier. 3 points? Fine, I'll buy that
Click to expand...

With sample proportions, you have a confidence interval which states that you are xx% sure (usually a percentage in the high 90s) that the true mean lies within a certain +/- value of those numbers. Now where the polls can go wrong is in their sampling methodology, for example, surveying only land-line users. Just because a poll shows a 6 point lead doesn't mean it's flawed and should be disregarded; rather you should look at whether there are any glaring methodology errors that would lead to such a result.
 
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