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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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H

HylianTom

Banned
Zabka said:
It's gonna be tough in NY. People will have to walk 4, maybe 5 blocks a week after a hurricane. How will we cope?
Click to expand...

That's the point I've been making. In Dem core precincts, one's voting location is usually several blocks away. One can walk, bike, take the bus. It's so damn easy.

Contrast this with the Republicans' more rural voting base having to hop into their cars and drive - often several miles away to the nearest town/village - in order to vote. Cities are going to get electrical and utility services back first, and roads blocked by downed trees or swollen streams are much more likely to affect those outside of the cities.

Any electoral panic over this is, again.. asinine.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
AP isn't even trying to unskew the polls. Can't believe they are buying into the liberal fantasy. They, along with the effeminate-sounding Silver, are going to lose a lot of credibility on election night.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
They sound like low information voters.
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Oh yes, they are.

My father has a seething dislike for Hilary Clinton. I don't know where it comes from, but it's there. Our entire family is full of Republicans that it's become the norm -- that is the central, normal ground for him. He sees higher taxes, he thinks it'll hurt business (fact: Our family's combined income makes less than 200k. Fact, his small business employs less than 15 people). He doesn't understand how progressive tax brackets work. He just dislikes Democrats. He will, however, vote for the lesbian who lives next door who is in our state Senate because he likes her, he likes gay marriage, and thinks she's a good person. He just doesn't like the "idea" of Democrats.

My mother's family is also full of Republicans. She doesn't like Michelle Obama (seems too mean), she's voting for Linda McMahon because she's a woman and as my mom said today, Chris Murphy has "liver lips" (I don't know what that means). She doesn't like the dog thing with Romney, but she liked Sarah Palin because of her mentally challenged family member (you can't make this up). She is also voting for our lesbian neighbor because her and Beth are great friends. She might vote for Obama, but probably won't because of Michelle Obama (because she looks mean and I don't know).

Called out on ANY of their beliefs, they get upset and go "why are we having this discussion now/I don't want to talk about this/etc".

Oh you, Democracy!
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Reuters has Obama up today, 49-46.

President Barack Obama has extended his narrow lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney among likely voters in a race that remains statistically tied nine days before the election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released on Sunday.

Obama has a 49 percent to 46 percent edge over Romney, marking a 1 point increase from Saturday but still within the daily online survey’s 4 percentage-point credibility interval for likely voters.
Click to expand...
http://www.firstpost.com/world/obam...days-before-election-reuters-poll-506135.html
 
P

pigeon

Banned
PoliGAF Battleground Poll

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Au__8djkzrLedEFSVjR6NEVaYkNIWEs2RkxHY21SQkE

oimg


oimg


oimg


Obama Battleground State Win Chances
Colorado: 77.78%
Florida: 19.44%
Iowa: 88.89%
New Hampshire: 94.44%
Nevada: 94.44%
North Carolina: 5.56%
Ohio: 91.67%
Virginia: 66.67%
Wisconsin: 94.44%

EV Estimate: Mean 298, Median 303
PV Estimate: Mean +.59, Median +1.1
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
You know which state is REALLY in trouble for Obama? Colorado. I hear they sometimes get a ton of snow and are up in the MOUNTAINS. THE MOUNTAINS! What happens if it snows? How are the liberals supposed to get to a polling place in their Prius in the SNOW?
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
reilo said:
You know which state is REALLY in trouble for Obama? Colorado and Utah. I hear they get a ton of snow and are up in the MOUNTAINS. THE MOUNTAINS! How are the liberals supposed to get to a polling place in their Prius in the SNOW?
Click to expand...

Ugh. As if we didnt hae enough to be concerned about. First Ohio, the Nevada, now Colorado. :(
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
reilo said:
You know which state is REALLY in trouble for Obama? Colorado and Utah. I hear they sometimes get a ton of snow and are up in the MOUNTAINS. THE MOUNTAINS! What happens if it snows? How are the liberals supposed to get to a polling place in their Prius in the SNOW?
Click to expand...

Cause the snow only falls on the LIBERAL side of the mountains.

I thought this was widely known.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
ClovingWestbrook said:
Ugh. As if we didnt hae enough to be concerned about. First Ohio, the Nevada, now Colorado. :(
Click to expand...

And it gets really humid in the midwest. Since liberals are against A/C because it's bad for the environment, they will be just too heatstroked to go out and vote.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
XenodudeX said:
Why even have NV as tossup at this point? Might as well give it to Obama.
Click to expand...

Because he needs to win them ALL to win the election.

Better question . . . why isn't a smidgen of blue on the right side of the 270 line because Obama's solid and lean-Obama EVs add up to 271?

That shows that Romney needs to flip at least one lean Obama state too.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
pigeon said:
At this point, I think Obama is clearly in the lead in the national tracking poll average.
Click to expand...

It's a tie.

Obama is up in Rand (7) and Reuters (3) and IBD (1). Romney is up in Gallup (4), Ras (3), ABC (1), and PPP (1), Google (1).

UCI hasn't updated but it was a tie last. It's tied.


A 6 point Obama lead is an outlier. 3 points? Fine, I'll buy that
Click to expand...

Not really. If Obama is up 2, a 6 point result is not an outlier. It all depends on what the true number is.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Refresh my memory: for Election 2008, did the Republicans/Libertarians/right-leaners here at GAF melt-down en masse, cordially accept Obama's victory (knowing it was going to happen), or just quietly/conveniently vanish into the wall for that night?

(any good meltdown threads?)

I'm drawing a blank.
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
If we can unskew polls, then we should also try to unskew the World Series. I'm pretty sure the Tigers are up two games to one.
 
D

Diablos

Member
2008 PA: Obama got 3,192,316 votes.
McCain got 2,586,496 votes.

Of Obama's votes, 574,930 of them came from Philly.
135,150 came from Chester County.

Obama got 710,000 votes from Philly and Chester County alone. It's what makes PA go blue every time. I think NY is going to deliver for Obama regardless, but PA may be the one to watch if the storm really gets out of hand.
 
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