And if people want to know why I draw that parallel between current MS/Xbox with multiple parts eating into themselves, and Sega from the 1994-1997 period, here's why:
During that period, Sega had several platforms they had to simultaneously support. Genesis/MegaDrive, Mega CD, 32x, Saturn, Pico, Game Gear, Nomad (although this was just a portable Genesis/MegaDrive), arcade, PC. In addition to the technical differences between a lot of these, Sega also had to decide which platforms ultimately got what 1P content, meaning they had to divide their resources between these different platforms, meaning that ultimately the platform which should have mattered the most (Saturn) was underserved for the longest time which impacted it in the market, helping contribute to their decline as a platform holder.
Microsoft have two consoles ATM with vastly different performance profiles they have to simultaneously support, in Series S and Series X. Regardless how much easier it is for them and 3P devs to develop on them compared to say supporting a MegaDrive, arcade & Saturn back in the '90s, there are still obvious difficulties involved in that scenario and it will always have something of a strain on software optimization. They provide their content across Xbox consoles, PC storefronts like Steam, and the Game Pass subscription service (which also features xCloud). These are all differing business/content delivery models that ultimately compete with each other in some way, and MS providing their 1P content through ALL of these different options, which have wildly varying revenue flows, pricing, and long-term implications/impacts on player habits, among other things.
In a sense, there isn't much different from Microsoft providing, say, Starfield on Steam and Game Pass Day 1 alongside Xbox, than there was Sega having Virtua Fighter 1 available at the arcade on Model 1, Saturn, and 32X. But at least in Sega's case, there were clear differences in both platform availability (arcade/Model 1 had VF1 exclusively for a long while before it went to console), and technical differences that would sway one to access the content through multiple means (Model 1 version having the best visuals, Saturn & 32X versions having the widest/best availability, Saturn version having better performance than 32X one and more availability than arcade/Model 1 version, etc.).
There are, literally, NO distinguishing features for Starfield in terms of (notable) technical performance edges or convenience of availability. The only differences are in terms of the end cost to the customer: want to pay $70 on Xbox to own it, or $60 on PC to own it, or $10/month to play it in Game Pass? The fact there will be some additional resolution (and maybe framerate) options on PC plus mod support pretty much pushes that one as the best version, meaning the best version can be had for as little as $10 on PC Game Pass, or for a price where MS is only getting $42 of total revenue (since the vast majority on PC would buy it through Steam, if they're buying it)...and that's before sales discounts inevitably kick in some time later on after launch. Not to mention, a good portion of PC/Steam sales will probably come through sites like CD Keys which sell digital codes for quite a bit cheaper than even the launch price MSRP.
MS basically have a situation now where the best version of their 1P games are on a platform they don't even fully own, because if most of those sales are through Steam, they're doling out a cut to Valve for every single sale. And if some decent portion are through PC Game Pass, they have so many options to pay for cheap on PC that it doesn't do much for their revenue, like others ITT have been bringing up and alluding to. Sometimes having too many options is a bad thing: for Sega it meant spreading their money too thin and not directing limited resources to where they could've gone best (i.e instead of maybe sinking money into Model 2 & 3, and Gameworks, a lot of that could've gone into optimizing Saturn hardware & SDK support better for Day 1, and targeting Saturn & ST-V for all 1P content that generation. Still would've given them graphically impressive arcade games, potentially more powerful (& easier to develop for/optimize for) Saturn, etc.
For Microsoft, all of these availability options is cutting into their revenue bottom line. Which is why I think they're going to tighten up some of the discounts and free offers for Game Pass, close the $1 conversion loop, introduce new tiers, readjust their Day 1 strategy for Game Pass and save that for a new more expensive tier, and probably copy Sony's Game Trails concept to still "kinda" give Day 1 access to 1P releases on the current and ad-based cheaper tiers, but without impacting direct sales revenue. And these changes are probably coming sooner rather than later, IMHO.
