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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
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Ether_Snake
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Here's how I trade.
Using Google Finance, I setup a watch list, which is basically a fake portfolio. I use the stock screener to find companies that have a market cap of at least 1B, and which have fallen more than 13% in the past 52-weeks, with a PE of 16 or less. Then I look for companies I know the name of, and look at the price's behavior over the past few years. What I'm looking for are companies that have performed relatively well over the past year or two, but which might be down for X reason. Then I add a transaction of said company, of 1 share at what I consider its last realistic highest price (meaning, if I see a high that lasted only for a short time and never happened again I don't consider that the real high, I look for something a bit more consistent).
So this allows me to track the current price VS its past high.
Here you can see the watch list sorted by Gain % using that principle. It tells me that Aeropostale and Baker Hughes would likely offer good returns since it is down 33% and 29% versus the last high I noted for them, while Activision would be a bigger risk since it is higher than the last high I noted by 2%:
This is why recently I bought BHI in the Investopedia game. I added Aeropostale to the list today actually.
The list is a bit old cause I haven't been using it much recently since I just added to existing positions for the most part, but it gives an idea of how I keep track of things. It's basically my way of easily finding what I consider undervalued stocks based on my preferences, without spending much time. I used to check stocks one by one looking at prices and all, it could take me two hours
Not saying it's a good approach, there are other factors that come into play, for example I'm much more confident in my understand of a videogame company's valuation than let's say, a tech company or defense sector company. But it worked out well for me, and I don't end up spending more time than I want looking for what to invest in. And in the end it gives you more time to think things through, rather than use that time to look for what to potentially invest in to begin with.
Using Google Finance, I setup a watch list, which is basically a fake portfolio. I use the stock screener to find companies that have a market cap of at least 1B, and which have fallen more than 13% in the past 52-weeks, with a PE of 16 or less. Then I look for companies I know the name of, and look at the price's behavior over the past few years. What I'm looking for are companies that have performed relatively well over the past year or two, but which might be down for X reason. Then I add a transaction of said company, of 1 share at what I consider its last realistic highest price (meaning, if I see a high that lasted only for a short time and never happened again I don't consider that the real high, I look for something a bit more consistent).
So this allows me to track the current price VS its past high.
Here you can see the watch list sorted by Gain % using that principle. It tells me that Aeropostale and Baker Hughes would likely offer good returns since it is down 33% and 29% versus the last high I noted for them, while Activision would be a bigger risk since it is higher than the last high I noted by 2%:
This is why recently I bought BHI in the Investopedia game. I added Aeropostale to the list today actually.
The list is a bit old cause I haven't been using it much recently since I just added to existing positions for the most part, but it gives an idea of how I keep track of things. It's basically my way of easily finding what I consider undervalued stocks based on my preferences, without spending much time. I used to check stocks one by one looking at prices and all, it could take me two hours
Not saying it's a good approach, there are other factors that come into play, for example I'm much more confident in my understand of a videogame company's valuation than let's say, a tech company or defense sector company. But it worked out well for me, and I don't end up spending more time than I want looking for what to invest in. And in the end it gives you more time to think things through, rather than use that time to look for what to potentially invest in to begin with.
I would imagine that the consistency of $100/day, without being an average, would be hard to maintain. My average in the investment competition is around $214 a day but that's including some days with losses, some days with minimal profit, and some days with very high profit
I practice similar methods, ether snake, but on a lesser scale. It's a good way to get an idea of current mins/maxs
I practice similar methods, ether snake, but on a lesser scale. It's a good way to get an idea of current mins/maxs
daw840 said:
If youre completely green, I would invest for the long term and dump all of your money in
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0970&FundIntExt=INT
Total stock market etf
and https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=3369&FundIntExt=INT
Total international stock
bout 70-30, favoring the Total stock etf
You really can't go wrong doing it that way, and if you have 5k, I would totally open a Roth IRA. You wont be able to pay your mom back since its in there until you are 60, but your earnings will be tax free
mastershake
Member
Rubenov said:
Co-sign this book. I bought it roughly two weeks ago and if its good enough for buffet its good enough for me!
Gonaria said:
This (the general 'passive investing' idea, don't know enough to comment on the split). If you are totally green it's a waste of money and probably time, to be actively investing imo unless you have the time/resources/ability etc to actually get *good* at actively investing and beat the market. For most (including me), it's just more worthwhile spending that time in other ways and letting the market do the work for me.
daw840 said:
Why can't you learn without sacrificing money (either in reality or in -EV terms) - it's very very unlikely you're more profitable actively investing rather than passive at this point in time. This is something a lot of people seem to say 'I'll spend money to learn' - it's not like you can't paper trade stocks instead (unless you're testing your mentality when it comes to risk, but that's something that largely can't be changed anyway so...)
mastershake
Member
daw840 said:
You could also check out the investopedia stock simulator games. It follows the real market and you can play around with $100,000. I think this is the perfect way to develop a strategy without losing any real money. I would just put the $5k in a high yield(and safe) dividend stock until your comfortable enough to play for real.
bwtw said:
Well, it all boils down to they surprised me with this money and account for this specific purpose. It is my 30th birthday present. If I just passively invest it, she won't be happy at all. Really though, at this point what do I have to lose? I can't spend the 5k, this is it's only purpose.
daw840 said:
Well, I guess if its a 5k birthday present meant for you to actively invest, then you better do it, lol.
I am not much of an active investor, but If you want to know my plan, I believe that the market is going to slide and slide and slide basically until like march-april of next year. That is when I am going to dump some money in. If it doesnt pan out like that, oh well, Ill still invest since I cant imagine that there will be a dramatic increase from now until then
When that happens, just invest in some really solid blue chip stocks. Not a whole lot of risk in that since Those should just climb with the market (eventually - hopefully - possibly)
PartlyCloudlike
Member
CrankyJay said:
Same. I'm new to this, so I'm still testing my intuition on when I think the market will rally based on previous closes. That's why i didn't sell at 52 when I normally would have. Live and learn.
If earnings news is good, I plan to sell if it reaches 60-63, then rebuy if it drops down to 40-45 again. I can play the waiting game. In this environment, I have a hard time investing long term when the resistance levels don't appear to be changing that much and appear somewhat predictable. I can just make money on the swings for now while keeping an eye out for possible breakouts.
Ether,
+1 for BHI. I bought them last week, up about 1.5%. Also bought Halliburton (HAL) today during the day's lows, ended +2%. All paper gains of course, but I intend to keep them for a while as they have significant upside.
Another giant with tons of upside potential in my portfolio is APA.
Edit: Also, the ~100 daily gain is sort of a random average I'm throwing out there. Keep in mind I'm "investing" (errhh gambling on this market) with a 100,000 portfolio. I've made as little as 20 bucks per day and as much as over 2k. I've only solidified two strong losses; one with AGNC that I bought for the dividend and realized the stock wasn't going anywhere (I could make more money taking the loss and getting my principal out than waiting for it to turn around), and one while trading the 3x leveraged TVIX.
TVIX has made thousands in a day, and also lost me about 4k in a single day. The most dangerous and most profitable thing out there.
+1 for BHI. I bought them last week, up about 1.5%. Also bought Halliburton (HAL) today during the day's lows, ended +2%. All paper gains of course, but I intend to keep them for a while as they have significant upside.
Another giant with tons of upside potential in my portfolio is APA.
Edit: Also, the ~100 daily gain is sort of a random average I'm throwing out there. Keep in mind I'm "investing" (errhh gambling on this market) with a 100,000 portfolio. I've made as little as 20 bucks per day and as much as over 2k. I've only solidified two strong losses; one with AGNC that I bought for the dividend and realized the stock wasn't going anywhere (I could make more money taking the loss and getting my principal out than waiting for it to turn around), and one while trading the 3x leveraged TVIX.
TVIX has made thousands in a day, and also lost me about 4k in a single day. The most dangerous and most profitable thing out there.
daw840 said:
If it's money set aside to be an active trader, you should invest directly in stocks. I would pick five and put $1000 into each. I would try and diversify sectors and market caps, maybe a commodity ETF (like GLD or whatever). Whatever you do, make sure you understand what your criteria is and don't just pick at random. Also define your exit criteria. Look at charts and start to try and grasp chart patterns. It takes time and a ton of reading and research to get good. Remember the majority of active traders lose money. You have to be very disciplined to make money and keep it.
Do you guys have a set amount that you bail out on? IBD says 8% and you should bail...I was thinking along the lines of 10 or 12 from talking to my step dad, but he seems a little more risky with his trades...
edit: Kathode, thanks for the advice. That's exactly what I was wanting. Forgive me, what is a "sector" and "market cap." In the middle of investopedias instructional segment and reading it line by line.
edit: Kathode, thanks for the advice. That's exactly what I was wanting. Forgive me, what is a "sector" and "market cap." In the middle of investopedias instructional segment and reading it line by line.
When I actively trade, I only buy stocks that I'm comfortable keeping for a while if the day's trade doesn't pan out. That means I day trade AAPL, AMZN, QCOR and a few others that I try to get my day's gain, but I'm comfortable waiting a while to realize the gains.
It doesn't make sense to sell any of these stocks if you didn't achieve your day's target, since it's pretty much guaranteed they will come back up. A day's play might turn into a 3-day play or something.
The day traders that lose money employ other strategies, do short-selling, and several other tricks that can make you money but can also lose you a loot of money. Except for my TVIX plays I keep it simple.
It doesn't make sense to sell any of these stocks if you didn't achieve your day's target, since it's pretty much guaranteed they will come back up. A day's play might turn into a 3-day play or something.
The day traders that lose money employ other strategies, do short-selling, and several other tricks that can make you money but can also lose you a loot of money. Except for my TVIX plays I keep it simple.
Ether_Snake
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daw840 said:
I usually don't invest in something if I don't expect a 12%+ return. I've made 40% on a few occasions, never did more than 50%.
Ken Masters
Banned
it's all about the bucks kid, everything else is conversation
Naw, that wasn't it. They made gains last week off the OLED Apple rumor and also the fact that China declared a ban on traditional light bulbs within 5 years. Then today an analyst surmised OLED manufacturing is no where near ready to handle Apple's needs. Anyway, earnings call for Q3 tomorrow night. Hopefully they have some good news. Seriously though, there are a ton of less credible websites writing false news about PANL's outlook and dumbasses believe the news and sell it off.Rubenov said:
PartlyCloudlike
Member
I put in a stop for PANL at 46 just in case earnings don't meet expectations. This stock has been so volatile that I'd rather cut my losses from $48.50 then rebuy at a lower price for when it invariably spikes up again.
PartlyCloudlike
Member
CrankyJay said:
I just bumped up the stop to 47.00; I don't expect it to fall below that today. Hoping for the best of course!
Been messing around with this Investopedia game all day, I'm .2% down but learning a lot. Thanks for that guys.
I started just looking for companies I know, have made 1.5% in a day on some Polaris stock. This is pretty fun. Of course I'm buying shit I never would if it were real money, but still.
I started just looking for companies I know, have made 1.5% in a day on some Polaris stock. This is pretty fun. Of course I'm buying shit I never would if it were real money, but still.
LOL holy shit the after market prices are spiking!
Here are the Q3 earnings report: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/un...ird-quarter-2011-financial-results-2011-11-08
Here are the Q3 earnings report: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/un...ird-quarter-2011-financial-results-2011-11-08
PartlyCloudlike
Member
CrankyJay said:
You freaking called it! Nice!!! Are you going to go long term with it now?
Ether_Snake
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So it looks like TTWO might go down a little bit. If it goes back in the 12 or 13$ range I'll probably buy. Unlike to fall that low without a broader fall in the markets though.
ATVI is now over 14$. I'm still not confident in them over the longer term. I think they'll want to make acquisitions to diversify beyond COD, wouldn't surprise me if they eventually tried to buy TTWO to get GTA and a couple of other licenses which would round things up on the console end, and probably some acquisitions on the more casual from, but less meaningful.
That's why I want to get back in TTWO if the chance permits. Either they get bought out, or they'll perform well anyway.
ATVI is now over 14$. I'm still not confident in them over the longer term. I think they'll want to make acquisitions to diversify beyond COD, wouldn't surprise me if they eventually tried to buy TTWO to get GTA and a couple of other licenses which would round things up on the console end, and probably some acquisitions on the more casual from, but less meaningful.
That's why I want to get back in TTWO if the chance permits. Either they get bought out, or they'll perform well anyway.
Going to start researching and watching GTAT.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...gs-forecast-after-price-slump.html?cmpid=yhoo
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...gs-forecast-after-price-slump.html?cmpid=yhoo
Ether_Snake
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daw840 said:
I never have any idea on how long I'll hold, at all, I just have an idea of what kind of minimum return I'm expecting.
daw840 said:
I have some longs I'm planning on holding for over a year, mostly energy companies like APA and BHI. Solid companies and energy is something that usually gets more expensive with time.
The recent volatility sours me on going long on more stocks. Therefore, aside of those stocks I'm day and week trading. We've been going up and down the same range since August.
mastershake
Member
How much more difficult does investing make filing for your taxes? Is it a huge pain in the ass or just a few more forms?
Yelp may be filing for IPO in a few weeks, I feel much better about it than Groupon as it has a better and more traditional revenue model among internet startups (relying on advertising) but seems to maintain a unique market position on restaurant reviews.
Let's be honest nobody from the mainstream uses Zagat and so far its hard to say if Google can make anything happen with it, seemed like a desperate way to recover from their rejection for buying yelp at $500 million.
Let's be honest nobody from the mainstream uses Zagat and so far its hard to say if Google can make anything happen with it, seemed like a desperate way to recover from their rejection for buying yelp at $500 million.
daw840 said:
So long as the company continues to perform well I intend to hold onto my investments in perpetuity to let the dividends reinvest. If the company turns in a direction I don't like, cuts its dividend or has accounting irregularities I begin to look at selling it.
Depends on how frequently you trade and in which products. If you just trade common stocks there won't be much more than a few extra forms that are pretty simple. If you start dipping into stuff like REITs and MLPs you start running into filing K-1 forms and finding out what portion of your distribution is really a return of capital, and yeah, that stuff can get hectic if you aren't an accounting person. Overall though it's difficult for an individual investor to cause too many problems.
RumblingRosco
Member
daw840 said:
I am only 23 and have been investing since I was 18. I've sold very few stocks; less than 10%. I really only look at long-term (minimum 3 years) purchases. Edit: Anno has the right idea by the way, as far as I'm concerned.
Zyzyxxz said:
Looks like they have a hand in other markets including LED lighting so they have multiple income potential...looks like they have a backlog of orders as well so they predict a steady stream of income for '12-'14.
At $8 or lower I want in at the ground floor, especially for the LED lighting aspect, but if I can get it for cheaper I want it.