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[Ether_Snake]

I see LED like solar cells as far as technological development and market reach will go: put more of it, anywhere, on anything.

But like solar, it's going to be a volatile market. At least it won't be seen as the enemy of a power lobby and won't have to rely on government funding.

 

[CrankyJay]

Well, like I said...the US and Chinese governments both are putting an eventual end to incandescent lighting so there's a huge future market for this. Then there's cellphones, tablets, car dashboards, and televisions. It could be huge.

Anyway...damn...the futures for today don't look good. Took the steam out of PANL's awesome earnings announcement.

 

[TylerD]

No solution for Europe! Dow down, Nasdaq down, S&P down. Everything down!!!!

Wish I had more money to buy buy buy on the lows.

 

[PartlyCloudlike]

No action from me today, I'm not about to get caught up in the hysteria.

 

[koam]

I bought ANF and JVA, I think they can bounce back short term.

Are you guys on stocktwits?

 

[mastershake]

It's going to get much worse before it gets better, isn't it?

There is a lot of talk of Italy defaulting. How realistic is that or is the media just spewing hyperbole?

 

[Anno]

It's going to get much worse before it gets better, isn't it?

Who knows? It's completely up in the air at this point. If it does, though, I don't think it'll be by much or for long. Consequently I sold some JAN12 $25.00 calls for INTC today for a little extra income.

There is a lot of talk of Italy defaulting. How realistic is that or is the media just spewing hyperbole?

It's hyperbole for now, though it'll probably turn into some stupid self-fulfilling prophecy before long. My understanding is that they have a weighted average of about 7 years for their debt maturities and it's mostly financed by Italians. They also have a lot more leeway in enacting austerity measures, as I believe their tax receipts cover debt maturities like 6.5 times or so. Much better than Greece which can't really afford to roll over debt by itself currently.

I think Italy has a large auction on Monday That may tell us a lot about how things will look in the short term.

 

[Piecake]

Who knows? It's completely up in the air at this point. If it does, though, I don't think it'll be by much or for long. Consequently I sold some JAN12 $25.00 calls for INTC today for a little extra income.



It's hyperbole for now, though it'll probably turn into some stupid self-fulfilling prophecy before long. My understanding is that they have a weighted average of about 7 years for their debt maturities and it's mostly financed by Italians. They also have a lot more leeway in enacting austerity measures, as I believe their tax receipts cover debt maturities like 6.5 times or so. Much better than Greece which can't really afford to roll over debt by itself currently.

I think Italy has a large auction on Monday That may tell us a lot about how things will look in the short term.

Well, just read that investors have sold more than 80 billion in US equity funds this year while companies have bought more than 200 billion of their own shares this year and have authorized 400 billion more in stock repurchases.

That doesnt sound like a positive development to me since companies are basically propping up their stock price by tapping into cheap credit

 

[MesserWolf]

Who knows? It's completely up in the air at this point. If it does, though, I don't think it'll be by much or for long. Consequently I sold some JAN12 $25.00 calls for INTC today for a little extra income.



It's hyperbole for now, though it'll probably turn into some stupid self-fulfilling prophecy before long. My understanding is that they have a weighted average of about 7 years for their debt maturities and it's mostly financed by Italians. They also have a lot more leeway in enacting austerity measures, as I believe their tax receipts cover debt maturities like 6.5 times or so. Much better than Greece which can't really afford to roll over debt by itself currently.

I think Italy has a large auction on Monday That may tell us a lot about how things will look in the short term.

quite correct

Italy is actually an industrial economy: Italy has good fundamental economy, its problem is the lack of a good government that makes dangerous the huge amount of italian debt.

Although if these kind of interest rates remain for long, nothing will matter anymore. But ... But Italy is not Greece ... Italy is definitely too big to fail : no question about it.
The problem is how it will be saved. My guess is that in the end ECB will have to print money, some sort of european quantitative easing .

 

[Ether_Snake]

TTWO going down further, a bit more and I'm likely to buy

 

[CrankyJay]

Bleh, market tanking some more. Stocks are on sale (if you can guess where the bottom is).

 

[MesserWolf]

Bleh, market tanking some more. Stocks are on sale (if you can guess where the bottom is).

that is a big IF

 

[dpatel304]

Apple is down to about $384. Wondering if I should buy it right now. I actually owned a few shares of it, and sold it for about $405 recently. If I rebought it, I would only do it hoping it would jump up back to the $400s so I could resell for a small profit. Don't feel safe holding onto to Apple for the long run.

 

[Rubenov]

Apple is down to about $384. Wondering if I should buy it right now. I actually owned a few shares of it, and sold it for about $405 recently. If I rebought it, I would only do it hoping it would jump up back to the $400s so I could resell for a small profit. Don't feel safe holding onto to Apple for the long run.

Same here; I think their long-term prospects are dimming. I think for the short term you are likely to make some money if you buy now. Just remember to sell before their next earnings call.

 

[thirty]

maybe i can ask this here. i have a pretty sizable amount in my 401k. if shit hits the fan i do not want to be wiped out. if you cash out and then get fired or let go for any reason, you have to pay the money back as its a loan, or you can just do a withdrawal. either way i'd put the money back into it IF we were to make it through whatever shitstorm may be coming. any advise as to what the best way to go about this would be? i mean yeah i could just leave it there and have it buying on the lows but who knows if that will even work if things go mad max.

 

[Piecake]

maybe i can ask this here. i have a pretty sizable amount in my 401k. if shit hits the fan i do not want to be wiped out. if you cash out and then get fired or let go for any reason, you have to pay the money back as its a loan, or you can just do a withdrawal. either way i'd put the money back into it IF we were to make it through whatever shitstorm may be coming. any advise as to what the best way to go about this would be? i mean yeah i could just leave it there and have it buying on the lows but who knows if that will even work if things go mad max.

cashing out your 401k is a stupid stupid idea. DO NOT DO IT. You wont be wiped out. If the market crashes, you will take a huge hit, but it will go back up eventually. You'll take a much bigger hit if you cash out now than you will when you turn 60. Just leave it in there and dont worry about it. Its all unrealized gains/losses until you sell it, and you defintiely do not want to sell all of your 401k now. And if you are truly worried about it, stick it in a guaranteed income fund or bond fund or something - but that still isnt something that I would do.



Even if you get fired or let go or quit, cashing out your 401k is a stupid idea. Roll it over into a Roth IRA.

 

[Anno]

Same here; I think their long-term prospects are dimming. I think for the short term you are likely to make some money if you buy now. Just remember to sell before their next earnings call.

I'm curious, why do people seem to be increasingly concerned about Apple? I've never owned the stock and frankly I don't much care for their products but I see them doing quite well for a very long time. The stock is super cheap right now, especially when you consider how much of the company is just pure cash. I think it'd be a solid long-term investment at these levels.

 

[teh_pwn]

I'm curious, why do people seem to be increasingly concerned about Apple? I've never owned the stock and frankly I don't much care for their products but I see them doing quite well for a very long time. The stock is super cheap right now, especially when you consider how much of the company is just pure cash. I think it'd be a solid long-term investment at these levels.

The stock's value depends on how you speculate they'll do in the future. If you think their earnings and margins will hold, then they are very slightly overvalued.

I think some people are concerned about both competition increasing from Microsoft, Google, and Samsung, and the lack of Steve Jobs. From what I've heard about Jobs style is that he was very smart, but very controlling. So depending on how well the company changed it's procedures/goals to mimic that thought process will determine how well they do. Who knows, they might thwart competition and make inroads into TV.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

RBS. If you're interested in a 5-7 year hold. Should be valued at least 10x what it is then, and it will yield pretty good dividends once the government sell up.

I've been eyeing the move up for a while, and it is looking like a real bargain stock now. It will never go bankrupt and the price can only go up. Downside is no dividends payable to ordinary shares while the UK government maintain a stake and they may yet have further writedowns of EMU periphery debt.

I'll probably be putting £15-17k in tomorrow morning before the market opens. At 20p a share I don't see any downsides, especially since the government will guarantee that RBS will never go bankrupt. Worst comes to worst, in 5 years the stake will be worth about the same. Best case in 5 years is that the government sell up, price rises to around 300p and dividends are paid out at around a 3% yield would give 9p per share and with 75,000 shares that is £7k a year in dividend payments.

It's a semi-risky, long term investment. If you need to spend the money, I wouldn't recommend it, but if you have it to spare, I recommend the investment and I am also going to buy in myself.

 

[mastershake]

I'm curious, why do people seem to be increasingly concerned about Apple? I've never owned the stock and frankly I don't much care for their products but I see them doing quite well for a very long time. The stock is super cheap right now, especially when you consider how much of the company is just pure cash. I think it'd be a solid long-term investment at these levels.

Yeah, i don't get it to be honest. Apple is still selling more and more iPhones every year, the iPad took off, and arent they sitting on something crazy like 80+ billion in cash?

I guess people are hesitant because they think the company will lack vision without Jobs. That's the only thing i can really see as valid.

 

[teh_pwn]

Yeah, i don't get it to be honest. Apple is still selling more and more iPhones every year, the iPad took off, and arent they sitting on something crazy like 80+ billion in cash?

I guess people are hesitant because they think the company will lack vision without Jobs. That's the only thing i can really see as valid.

Yeah, it's all speculation. I have no idea how much Jobs changed Apple so that it is able to invest in new ideas and combine the customer experience into something simple and intuitive.

It's very important for Apple to stay ahead of the curve in terms of the simplified user experience. They have to in order for people to be willing to pay a premium for fixed hardware and software. If Apple lets the competitors catch up with different manufacturers offering more options at a lower cost like PC did to Mac, then they're in trouble. For better or worse Microsoft is throwing Windows 8 at tablets and buying resources to be a bigger competitor with phones.

Also keep in mind Droid is eating up market share rapidly, even if it's low margins.

 

[CrankyJay]

maybe i can ask this here. i have a pretty sizable amount in my 401k. if shit hits the fan i do not want to be wiped out. if you cash out and then get fired or let go for any reason, you have to pay the money back as its a loan, or you can just do a withdrawal. either way i'd put the money back into it IF we were to make it through whatever shitstorm may be coming. any advise as to what the best way to go about this would be? i mean yeah i could just leave it there and have it buying on the lows but who knows if that will even work if things go mad max.

You won't be wiped out. If the market crashes again these are just paper losses. The only reason you should be worried is if you're close to retiring. These things occur in cycles so I would leave your 401k alone.

NEVER EVER, under ANY circumstances, take money out of your 401k before you are supposed to without penalty. That's just throwing money away.

If things go Mad Max, money won't be any good anyway.

 

[Cloudy]

maybe i can ask this here. i have a pretty sizable amount in my 401k. if shit hits the fan i do not want to be wiped out. if you cash out and then get fired or let go for any reason, you have to pay the money back as its a loan, or you can just do a withdrawal. either way i'd put the money back into it IF we were to make it through whatever shitstorm may be coming. any advise as to what the best way to go about this would be? i mean yeah i could just leave it there and have it buying on the lows but who knows if that will even work if things go mad max.

Why not just move your money into fixed income WITHIN the 401k?

 

[kathode]

AAPL is not looking healthy right now from a technical perspective. It broke through the 50-day moving average today. It has fought back from average breaks before but it is not the high probability trade to go long right now IMO.

 

[teh_pwn]

Why not just move your money into fixed income WITHIN the 401k?

Better than nothing, but really the guy needs to understand how index funds and mutual funds work. You have ownership of hundreds of companies within whatever sector your targeting. Realistically the only way to lose most of your money:
1. You sell after a market crash despite not needing it for decades.
2. Society collapses.

Otherwise you can expect something like +/- 60 % per year, averaging +9% per year.

 

[Fatghost]

Well, just read that investors have sold more than 80 billion in US equity funds this year while companies have bought more than 200 billion of their own shares this year and have authorized 400 billion more in stock repurchases.

That doesnt sound like a positive development to me since companies are basically propping up their stock price by tapping into cheap credit

I don't know, I'd say massive corporate stock buy backs and insider buying are generally pretty bullish.

It makes good business sense too if you are say, JNJ, and can issue bonds at a coupon of 2.5% and use the money to buy back shares with a divvy of 3.6%. Easy way to improve EPS and fund future dividend increases to committed shareholders who don't sell.

Win win really.

 

[Ether_Snake]

If TTWO ends up buying somebody, I expect shares to fall a bit more, so it might allow me to buy in the near future.

 

[thirty]

Better than nothing, but really the guy needs to understand how index funds and mutual funds work. You have ownership of hundreds of companies within whatever sector your targeting. Realistically the only way to lose most of your money:
1. You sell after a market crash despite not needing it for decades.
2. Society collapses.

Otherwise you can expect something like +/- 60 % per year, averaging +9% per year.

World economic collapse =/= society collapse?

 

[Piecake]

World economic collapse =/= society collapse?

No

The stock market didnt collapse during the great depression, so id wager that its pretty much impossible to lose all of your 401k unless you do something stupid and cash out of it.

 

[teh_pwn]

World economic collapse =/= society collapse?

This fund started just before the great depression. It has averaged over 8% annualized interest.
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsSnapshot?FundId=0021&FundIntExt=INT

Stocks beat the market average between Sept 1929 and 1959. The only way you lose is by selling during a crash solely on emotion.

 

[thirty]

So cash out 10k of it, let it crash then buy at the low, repay loan and keep my profits is what you're telling me.

 

[Piecake]

So cash out 10k of it, let it crash then buy at the low, repay loan and keep my profits is what you're telling me.

No, thats stupid. If you want to do something like that, put your money in your 401ks guaranteed income fund and when it hits what you think is the bottom then put it all back into stocks.

 

[greyshark]

No, thats stupid. If you want to do something like that, put your money in your 401ks guaranteed income fund and when it hits what you think is the bottom then put it all back into stocks.

Listen to this person.

 

[thirty]

No, thats stupid. If you want to do something like that, put your money in your 401ks guaranteed income fund and when it hits what you think is the bottom then put it all back into stocks.

I like this. Thank you.

 

[dpatel304]

Yeah, i don't get it to be honest. Apple is still selling more and more iPhones every year, the iPad took off, and arent they sitting on something crazy like 80+ billion in cash?

I guess people are hesitant because they think the company will lack vision without Jobs. That's the only thing i can really see as valid.

The lack of Jobs is my main reason for thinking this. I mean, I realize there is much more to Apple than Jobs and, I don't think we really know how much of an impact he, as an individual, really had on the company.

But this isn't just about Jobs and Apple for me. I would be concerned if any successful company suddenly lost one of their leaders.

I'm extremely new to stocks, though, so I'm in topics like these to do more learning than talking.

 

[Onion_Relish]

I'm sure it has been brought up, but what does everyone think of Zynga's IPO? I am seriously considering putting all of my money into it and cashing out at the end of the day. Thoughts?

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'm sure it has been brought up, but what does everyone think of Zynga's IPO? I am seriously considering putting all of my money into it and cashing out at the end of the day. Thoughts?

Gaffer Rubenov said the other day "96% of IPOs go up on the first day", but this is not really true.

When your order will go through in the morning, that "rise" will have already happened, and it happens before markets open. The IPO might be at 20$ or whatever, but as soon as markets open it might be at 40$. If you placed a market price order, you'll end up buying at 40$, not 20$. If you didn't put an order at the market's price, it won't even go through. And if you actually buy at whatever price it opens at, there is no guarantee you'll make money by the end of the day.

Not saying not to do it, but the idea that "96% of IPOs went up on the first day" doesn't mean what most people think it means.

Groupon finished lower VS the price it was at when markets opened on first day, and it never went back to its peak of 29$ which it reached early in the first morning.

If I recall right the same thing happened with Linked. I know someone who bought day one at 102 or so, and he saw the stock tank in the 60s or so afterwards. He didn't know what he was doing, he was just doing the "buy big IPO" thing. He didn't realize it opened at some unpredictable price, and after I explained to him and suggested not to invest in this thing and sell back when he would break even, he did, and sold at 102. It barely managed to stay above that price and it's now trading at 72.

I don't throw money in IPOs, because it means nothing to me. Not my kind of game. I hate to say all of that though cause maybe you might make a lot of money if you do it, so don't take my word for it, that's just my experience.

 

[MesserWolf]

Sitting on too much cash it isn't such a positive thing. You could argue that if applewere to invest at least a sizeble part of that money they would have a decent ROI and therefore better results.

Plus the lack of Jobs is a big big concern / risk. The market is just pricing that risk.

 

[Onion_Relish]

Gaffer Rubenov said the other day "96% of IPOs go up on the first day", but this is not really true.

When your order will go through in the morning, that "rise" will have already happened, and it happens before markets open. The IPO might be at 20$ or whatever, but as soon as markets open it might be at 40$. If you placed a market price order, you'll end up buying at 40$, not 20$. If you didn't put an order at the market's price, it won't even go through. And if you actually buy at whatever price it opens at, there is no guarantee you'll make money by the end of the day.

Not saying not to do it, but the idea that "96% of IPOs went up on the first day" doesn't mean what most people think it means.

Groupon finished lower VS the price it was at when markets opened on first day, and it never went back to its peak of 29$ which it reached early in the first morning.

If I recall right the same thing happened with Linked. I know someone who bought day one at 102 or so, and he saw the stock tank in the 60s or so afterwards. He didn't know what he was doing, he was just doing the "buy big IPO" thing. He didn't realize it opened at some unpredictable price, and after I explained to him and suggested not to invest in this thing and sell back when he would break even, he did, and sold at 102. It barely managed to stay above that price and it's now trading at 72.

I don't throw money in IPOs, because it means nothing to me. Not my kind of game. I hate to say all of that though cause maybe you might make a lot of money if you do it, so don't take my word for it, that's just my experience.

Those are all good points, and the more i thought about it the more you made sense. The one thing I would point out though is that linked or groupon are much less tangible products than zynga. Zynga makes lots of money and their products are in stores and in the popular mindframe.

That was one thing i noticed about groupon as well, is that the original buy price is the highest it's gone. I'm still not sure though. I've got 10g's i can plough into the stock, but I might just be too inexperienced...

 

[Jackson]

Those are all good points, and the more i thought about it the more you made sense. The one thing I would point out though is that linked or groupon are much less tangible products than zynga. Zynga makes lots of money and their products are in stores and in the popular mindframe.

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/zyngas-continued-declines-extremely-troubling/

Zynga's DAUs declined by 700K to 46.9MM (-1.5% m/m) over the past five weeks. Even the most recent game, Zynga's sequel to Mafia Wars, hasn't quite demonstrated the high numbers many were expecting.

"Three of the five recent launches ('Empires & Allies', 'Pioneer Trail', and 'Adventure World') have suffered 40%+ DAU drops off their post-launch peaks, while 'Mafia Wars 2', launched two weeks ago, is already showing signs of having peaked. We think the lack of user growth at Zynga - which is really a two-year old problem - could cause issues ahead of a potential IPO in November, particularly given an expected rich valuation," he said.

Zynga's days are numbered, social bubble is gonna pop, I wouldn't invest. But you do what you feel is right.

 

[bwtw]

Those are all good points, and the more i thought about it the more you made sense. The one thing I would point out though is that linked or groupon are much less tangible products than zynga. Zynga makes lots of money and their products are in stores and in the popular mindframe.

That was one thing i noticed about groupon as well, is that the original buy price is the highest it's gone. I'm still not sure though. I've got 10g's i can plough into the stock, but I might just be too inexperienced...

Ploughing $10k into a known-company, with what basically seems to amount to a hunch, sounds like a terrible idea.

 

[CrankyJay]

Ploughing $10k into a known-company, with what basically seems to amount to a hunch, sounds like a terrible idea.

Gotta do your due diligence for sure.

 

[Anno]

Very few recent IPOs have any sort of major moat around their business model. All of them can be, and likely will be, copied and eventually overtaken by larger companies with the funds to do it better. No one I know is loyal to Groupon deals or Zynga games; they may like their products but they don't use them exclusively. I just don't see how these companies break through into something that will give them long term sustainable growth that separates them from the rest of the field.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

Those are all good points, and the more i thought about it the more you made sense. The one thing I would point out though is that linked or groupon are much less tangible products than zynga. Zynga makes lots of money and their products are in stores and in the popular mindframe.

That was one thing i noticed about groupon as well, is that the original buy price is the highest it's gone. I'm still not sure though. I've got 10g's i can plough into the stock, but I might just be too inexperienced...

Without experience you'd be safer to take that 10K and open a CD account with East West Bank in Chinese RMB and let it appreciate.

 

[CrankyJay]

PANL just hit 53...do we have lift off at 55?

 

[Rubenov]

AAPL's selloff due to a cut in supply rumors were due to the flooding in Thailand, and not a lack of demand. A STRONG buy today for those that have the cash.

 

[dpatel304]

AAPL's selloff due to a cut in supply rumors were due to the flooding in Thailand, and not a lack of demand. A STRONG buy today for those that have the cash.

Didn't know this, but went ahead and bought some shares this morning.

 

[Zyzyxxz]

AAPL's selloff due to a cut in supply rumors were due to the flooding in Thailand, and not a lack of demand. A STRONG buy today for those that have the cash.

I'm buying, this new Apple television rumor has me excited and the iPhone 4S is the top selling smartphone across Verizon, Sprint, and AT&T so I'm gonna jump on this train.

 

[Rubenov]

Heh, Steve Cook said something about higher prices for PC components due to Thai flooding and down goes AAPL again. Investors are retards.

 

[Hatredcopter]

I don't throw money in IPOs, because it means nothing to me. Not my kind of game. I hate to say all of that though cause maybe you might make a lot of money if you do it, so don't take my word for it, that's just my experience.

Facebook is supposedly going public sometime in 2012. I'm a noob investor, but am I wrong to think jumping on that IPO right away is a great idea? I imagine it would make people into millionaires. Just curious what you (and others) might think.